The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery has come and gone, with what is seen as an unpredictable draft also featuring an unpredictable lottery.
The Atlanta Hawks spiked all the way up to the No. 1 overall pick despite having the 10th-best odds and only a 3 percent chance at winning. The Washington Wizards were the only team with one of the league’s four worst records to stay in the top four; they’ll pick second. The Houston Rockets will pick third after jumping into the top four from the No. 9 odds using a pick they acquired from the Brooklyn Nets. The San Antonio Spurs will pick fourth and eighth after receiving the Toronto Raptors’ first-round pick amid all of the chaos.
This draft class is still seen as weak among NBA teams, particularly those at the top. I will not rank anyone in my Tier 1 or Tier 2, the first time that’s happened since I began using this system. Over the last two years, I’ve ranked nine players that highly, but this class doesn’t have anyone I’d consider a top-three pick in a normal draft.
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NBA teams believe a number of players in the top 10 can help fill out their rosters and round out their cores. This draft is light on shooting, especially within the top group of players, but it possesses solid wing depth near the top, a number of smaller guards who profile as potential starters and some bigs as far down as the late-first, early-second-round range who should be rotation players in the future.
There are players to be found in every class. This year just might be riskier than prior seasons.
Here’s where we stand now that we officially have a draft order. (Ages listed are as of draft night; heights listed are NBA Draft Combine or G League Elite Camp measurements without shoes, when available):
1. Atlanta Hawks
Alex Sarr | 7-0 big | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats
Sarr emerged early in this draft cycle as a potential No. 1 pick. His performance against the G League Ignite in early September had scouts coming away believing he was the best prospect on the court.
Sarr is a difference-maker on defense who covers a ton of ground with his arms and quick feet, similar to bigs such as Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton. He flies around rotating off the ball and can handle himself in a variety of ball-screen coverages, ranging from switching to drop. If he’s waiting at the rim and opponents challenge him, odds are he’ll get contest the shot, if not outright block it.
The other end is the question. Sarr has shown potential as a rim runner in ball screens, but for the most part, his offensive game involves pick-and-pops, and he doesn’t make great screen contact. He’s not a high-impact defensive rebounder, which has led to some questioning if he can consistently play center in the NBA. If Sarr indeed requires a more physical center alongside him, his limited offensive game may be exposed. He’s best served playing next to a floor-spacing five, or he’d need to become a dangerous perimeter shooter himself.
There is not really a consensus among teams about what the Hawks will do at the top. I’ve given them Sarr here because they finished in the bottom four on defense last season and have Clint Capela entering the final year of his contract. Sarr makes the most sense, at least.
2. Washington Wizards
Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Topić returned to play for Crvena zvezda recently following a knee injury that kept him out three months. He’s coming off the bench for a loaded team that features a number of EuroLeague stalwarts, and his games so far have been more in line with a mid-first-round pick as opposed to a top-three guy.
Why is he placed this highly, then? Because in 13 Adriatic League games for Mega Basket before his transfer to Crvena zvezda, Topić averaged 18.6 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 52.4 percent from the field. He’s a dynamic ball-screen distributor and consistently lives in the paint in the Adriatic League, which consists of teams from the six countries that once made up Yugoslavia. He can execute nearly every pass in the book once he gets a downhill advantage and hits teammates with flair and creativity. Topić also scores proficiently at the rim, using inventive touch to finish high off the glass and around rim protectors.
Scouts have consistently brought up two issues with Topić’s game: First, where is he as a shooter? He makes his free throws but is an inconsistent marksman from 3-point range. If he can’t make enough jumpers to keep defenses honest, how will that affect the rest of his game? The second question is whether he can get separation from NBA opponents who are quicker than the slower players who make up the Adriatic League. On the other hand, Topić may benefit from the wider spacing of an NBA game.
The Wizards have shown a willingness to go international under general manager Will Dawkins and need a point guard with Tyus Jones hitting free agency and not necessarily being a top-half-of-the-league starter.
3. Houston Rockets
Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | 20 years old | Connecticut
Clingan had a monster finish to his season, helping to lead Connecticut to the national title while averaging 13.7 points, 8.6 rebounds and 2.9 blocks over his last 18 games, including 16 points, 9.4 rebounds and three blocks per game in his last seven. After returning from ankle and foot injuries and getting back up to speed, he was one of the most dominant players in college basketball.
Using his enormous frame, Clingan shuts down the paint when he’s in the game. He moves well for his size and is elite in drop coverage defensively, stopping ballhandlers from turning the corner on him and getting to the rim. His ability to backpedal on-balance is rare for his size. When not defending the ball, he makes his presence felt when necessary.
The other part of Clingan’s game that impressed evaluators was his passing. In the back half of the season, he became an excellent dribble-handoff big, as well as a playmaker for cutters and shooters off kickouts. He’s a sharp screener and knows how to play in a modern offense.
Clingan is firmly in the mix, along with all of the players above him, to go No. 1. He was within the NBA’s top-six prospects in the memo to teams outlining who will be allowed access to his medical information.
The Rockets traded for Steven Adams in the spring, but the veteran center only has one year left on his deal. That trade could be taken as a sign that Rockets coach Ime Udoka wants to find a defensive difference-maker on the interior even with Alperen Şengün in the fold. The Rockets are extremely well-stocked with young players across the board, so this pick is a luxury with which they can take the highest impact player available.
4. San Antonio Spurs
Zaccharie Risacher | 6-8 wing/forward | 19 years old | JL Bourg
The French wing has produced at a high level in EuroCup competition. Through May 10, he’s averaging 10.7 points across EuroCup and French League games while shooting 46 percent from the field, 38.7 percent from 3 and 71.9 percent from the free-throw line. He’s rebounding at a reasonable rate for a wing and has shown some passing and decision-making chops, but he’s in the middle of a serious downturn, having made just 22 percent of his 3s since Jan. 31. He has struggled to consistently make an impact in games since then.
The opinions NBA team and scouting personnel have shared with me on Risacher are all over the map. Some still view him as a contender for the No. 1 pick and attribute his downturn to fatigue from playing nearly 60 professional games already this season as a teenager. Others rank him closer to the middle of the top 10, while others view him more in the Nos. 8-12 range. The worry is Risacher might not have enough on-ball upside to warrant a top-five pick, even in this class.
Big wings with ball skills, shooting ability and off-ball defensive coverage, however, are hard to find. If you believe in Risacher’s jumper translating despite its recent downturn, his future has a pretty high floor.
The Spurs now have two top-10 picks and can easily look to bolster their depth across the wings and backcourt around Victor Wembanyama. Here, I have them taking Risacher, another Frenchman whose feel for the game, shooting and length would make a lot of sense.
Matas Buzelis | 6-9 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Buzelis has benefited from multiple factors all occurring at once in this class.
First, his size, off-ball capabilities and athleticism with the ball in transition make him a high-upside swing in a draft class lacking in them. Second, bigger wings with somewhat similar profiles, such as Charlotte’s Brandon Miller, Memphis’ G.G. Jackson, Washington’s Bilal Coulibaly and Houston’s Cam Whitmore, put together promising rookie seasons while displaying skills they didn’t consistently showcase in their pre-draft seasons.
Still, Buzelis did not have an ideal pre-draft campaign playing on a catastrophically bad G League Ignite team that struggled to compete in games. He averaged 14.1 points per game but only shot 45.5 percent from the field and 26.1 percent from 3, though he upped those numbers to 17.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.5 blocks over his last 13 games. He also won some plaudits from scouts for his play in the Rising Stars event at All-Star Weekend, where he helped the G League team upset a roster of NBA rookies and sophomores that included Victor Wembanyama.
There are certainly questions about Buzelis even after his in-season improvement, and shooting is the one that comes up most. Buzelis shot the ball well the season before at Sunrise Christian Academy in Kansas but hasn’t been consistent during his youth career. While Buzelis was able to fit into an offensive role with G League Ignite instead of pressing the issue, scouts wish they’d have learned more about his ability to create on his own. Additionally, while Buzelis’ off-ball defense has largely won over scouts, he struggled on the ball this past season in large part due to a lack of strength.
The Pistons desperately need a four in their core, and Buzelis profiles well as a good fit next to Cade Cunningham as long as the team believes in his jumper.
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Why the Pistons should trade the No. 5 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft
6. Charlotte Hornets
Stephon Castle | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut
Castle’s performance in the NCAA Tournament, including a 21-point Final Four game and a 15-point national title game, seems to have cemented his status as a top-eight pick. He was included in the No. 2 through No. 6 range of the NBA’s recent memo to teams outlining which will be granted access to his medical information.
NBA released a 78-player list for the 2024 Draft Combine in Chicago this month. Teams vote on participants, which include Bronny James.
New “Top 10 Players” ranked for which teams are able to access Combine information: pic.twitter.com/AoRpaSnCFw
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 3, 2024
Once the calendar turned to 2024, Castle averaged 11.9 points, 4.8 rebounds and three assists over 27 games while shooting 47.6 percent from the field. He was the connective tissue for the best team in the country, playing high-level defense across multiple different player types and initiating the team’s offense at times. He was the only freshman in the country who consistently made an impact for a high-major winning team on both ends of the court.
Castle is seen largely as a secondary ballhandler, so his future will be tied to his ability to improve his jumper. Can he consistently knock down shots? He only made 26.7 percent from 3 this past season, and while nothing is broken with his jumper mechanically, he also didn’t consistently knock down shots from distance in the past. If he can make perimeter shots, he has significant upside.
Castle makes a ton of sense for the Hornets as a secondary ballhandler between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. He’s also a tough-minded defender who can take difficult assignments across the perimeter.
Dalton Knecht | 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Tennessee
Knecht scored at a dizzying pace, averaging 25.5 points in 18 SEC games while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. Overall, he averaged 21.7 points per game on 46 percent from the field, but those stats are dragged down by a stretch during which he played at less than 100 percent following an ankle injury against North Carolina.
Great college players aren’t always great NBA players, but the style of Knecht’s game makes him a likely lottery pick. Everything he does offensively should translate to NBA settings. Not only is he a terrific shooter, proficient in spot-up situations and off movement, but he’s also a higher-end athlete than most floor spacers. He can sky in transition and finish inside with hang time. He simply has a knack for scoring.
The draft gets a bit wild here. I’m not sure any of the remaining top prospects included in the 7-10 range in the NBA’s memo outlining medical information access make a ton of sense for the Blazers. Knecht can knock down shots at a high level next to Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe long term, which would be very valuable.
![](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2024/01/17195943/knecht2-scaled.jpg)
Dalton Knecht elevates for a floater over Florida’s Alex Condon. (Randy Sartin / USA Today)
8. San Antonio Spurs (via Raptors)
Reed Sheppard | 6-2 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
Evaluators who work for NBA teams remain all over the map with Sheppard. Some see him as a legitimate top-five prospect, while others peg him more in the later lottery.
The good stuff: Sheppard averaged 12.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.5 assists while shooting an absurd 53.6 percent from the field and 52.1 percent from 3. He also blocked nearly a shot per game and grabbed 2.5 steals. Offensively, Sheppard is potent leading the fast break or delivering hit-ahead passes to his teammates. Those attributes, when combined with his elite shooting, make Sheppard one of the best connective players in this class. His games against Mississippi State (32 points, seven assists and five rebounds on Feb. 27) and Tennessee (27 points, five rebounds and five assists on March 9) were eye-openers for NBA personnel who wanted to see him play more of a primary point guard role.
Questions certainly remain. Sheppard is listed at just 6-3, and scouts are skeptical he’s that tall. He lacks the length or athleticism typical of a top-10 pick, and he left a bad final impression by struggling mightily in Kentucky’s first-round NCAA Tournament loss to Oakland. His defense can be hit or miss; he’s disruptive and reads plays incredibly early but also suffers off-ball lapses and can be targeted for mismatches against switches.
Teams must decide if they believe in his production, shooting and basketball IQ or worry that his tools won’t translate? I believe in Sheppard, but I’m not the one making the picks.
The Spurs can get a guard of the future here to pair with Wembanyama. Sheppard would tick multiple boxes for the Spurs, and it would be a home run for them to end up with one of the bigger wings in the lottery.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Ron Holland | 6-7 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
Holland was the Ignite’s most productive player this past season, averaging 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while being one of the team’s few offensive creators. Most of those points, however, came in transition or inefficiently in half-court settings. He had a below-average true shooting percentage and more turnovers than assists as he struggled with his decision-making. That’s somewhat to be expected from an 18-year-old playing professionally for the first time, but it also left evaluators in a tricky spot as they try to determine where to slot him. He also ended up missing the end of the G League season with a thumb injury that held him out of competition as he was improving.
Holland’s motor is what excites NBA teams most. He constantly plays hard, getting the most out of his terrific athleticism by going 100 percent at every moment. His energy can sometimes bite him on defense, when he gets overaggressive and overly physical. But amid the Ignite’s poor season, Holland showed a real capacity for growth that impressed many scouts.
Holland’s range is quite wide, as teams are still trying to figure out his exact NBA niche if his jumper never improves; he hit just 24 percent of his 3s this past season. But it was a good sign that he was placed within the NBA’s top-10 prospects in the memo to teams outlining who will be granted access to his medical information.
Rob Dillingham | 6-1 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
Dillingham is a prospect with dizzying highs and significant question marks. Scouts love his touch and elite speed with the ball in his hands. He averaged 15.2 points and 3.9 assists per game this season while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from 3. He maintains control well despite playing at a fast pace, uses a bevy of quick crossovers and maximizes his speed with well-timed hesitation moves to change pace. Evaluators are confident he will be able to separate from his man in the NBA.
He’s also listed at 6-3, and many scouts aren’t convinced he’ll even measure that tall at the combine. That lack of size impacts Dillingham as a finisher at times and causes issues on the other end. Dillingham may be the worst defender in the class, given his struggles getting over screens at the point of attack and issues dealing with any mismatch. He also can get distracted off the ball, with poorly timed digs and rotations.
Can Dillingham be a starting point guard, or is he more of a bench sparkplug? Is he a good enough distributor to be the former, or is he too much of a score-first guard? Can he hold up on defense well enough to close key games? I feel confident Dillingham will produce in the NBA, but we’ll see if his output impacts winning.
The Jazz could use another creative guard within the youngest part of their core. Dillingham’s electricity with the ball in his hands, mixed with Keyonte George’s shot making, would be a very fun offensive combo for coach Will Hardy.
Collier is one of the toughest players to evaluate in this class. He started the season on fire and looked like a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick but tailed off as USC fell apart. He struggled with turnovers and defense before hurting his hand and missing time.
Once he returned, he took the Pac-12 by storm. As USC closed the season as one of the better teams in the Pac-12, Collier averaged 18.7 points and 4.3 assists in his final seven games while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from 3. He was the bruising, powerful, bowling-ball-like driver we saw early in college and throughout his high school career, reaching the foul line to the tune of seven free-throw attempts per night.
Collier is an impressive downhill athlete who lives in the paint and has the wherewithal to hit kickouts and dump-offs for assists. Despite his size and strength, he has not been an impactful defender in any way, struggling to stay in front of opposing guards and wings. There are still questions about his feel for the game and shooting ability. And yet, it’s hard to find players who live at the free-throw line and possess Collier’s sheer force and athleticism.
The Bulls are one of the tougher teams to figure out in the NBA. They have bigger issues to focus on this summer, including DeMar DeRozan’s free agency and Zach LaVine’s future.
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NBA Draft 2024: John Hollinger’s Top 20 prospects — who’s No. 1?
Cody Williams | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Colorado
The brother of Thunder wing Jalen Williams, Cody Williams profiles as the kind of prized high-end prospect who can pressure the rim, pass, make plays and potentially defend multiple positions.
At 6-8 with long arms, Williams has shown the ability to play some point guard this past season in addition to attacking in transition and slashing from the wing in a straight line. He struggled to finish after an ankle injury sapped a lot of his explosiveness, but in his previous 14 games, he’d been averaging 15.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists while shooting 60.6 percent from the field.
Scouts worry more about Williams’ self-creation upside. These days, NBA wings must be able to create and knock down pull-up jumpers. That’s not a part of Williams’ game right now, and it wasn’t in high school, either. If he can show any upside as a pull-up shooter, NBA teams would feel better about taking him in the top three. Even so, many evaluators have him in the top-six range. However, it was telling that Williams was left off the NBA’s consensus top-10 prospects in this class in the memo to teams outlining who will be allowed access to his medical information.
Oklahoma City can afford to take a flier on another wing like this, and it doesn’t hurt that Williams’ wildly competitive brother would be around to push him.
McCain was seen as a potential one-and-done lottery prospect entering the season, but a slow start made evaluators pause as they waited to see how he’d settle in. Over the last two-thirds of the season, McCain was one of the best freshman scorers in high-major college basketball. Starting with Duke’s Dec. 9 game against Charlotte, McCain averaged 16.2 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists over his last 28 games. He made 41.6 percent of his 6.4 3-point attempts per game during that span and was consistently getting into the lane in transition or when driving closeouts. Many scouts see McCain being a high-level shooter even by NBA standards, often invoking Seth Curry’s name as a potential comparison.
The key for McCain will be showing he can impact games in other ways. He rebounds well for a small guard and makes good decisions, but there isn’t much margin for error for him considering he’s 6-3 and doesn’t possess a ton of length. The Kings might lose Malik Monk this summer in free agency. McCain would be a good get for this team with his ability to run and provide spacing around De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis.
14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors)
Tidjane Salaun | 6-9 wing/forward | 18 years old | Cholet
Salaun is a big forward with some perimeter skill. The 6-9 prospect has been productive in the French League and Basketball Champions League this season, averaging 9.5 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 32 percent from behind the 3-point line. He has a smooth stroke and also shows some upside handling the ball in transition.
Teams worry about Salaun’s feel for the game and overall skill level, but he’s enormous, plays hard and defends. I get the sense that team evaluators are higher on him than folks in the public. The Blazers love to take shots on upside, as shown by their run of picks under Joe Cronin’s front office, and Salaun would represent a big swing.
Carter was one of the best players in college basketball this past season. The son of former NBA point guard Anthony Carter, Devin was terrific in the 2022-23 season after transferring from South Carolina but leapt to another level this past campaign.
Carter has always been a terrific defensive player, rightfully nominated as a semifinalist for National Defensive Player of the Year. He is aggressive at the point of attack and has elite off-ball defensive instincts. His athleticism is basketball-functional and allows him to fly around the court. Plus, he processes the game as well as one would expect as the son of a former NBA player.
His biggest jump this past season came on offense. After years of being a questionable shooter, Carter hit 37.7 percent of his nearly seven 3-point attempts per game. His shot is something of a moon ball that arcs high in the air before falling, but it went in this season. He averaged 19.7 points and 8.7 rebounds.
His NBA role projects as a 3-and-D guard who can do a little bit more. That’s a perfect player for the Heat around Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier and others in their backcourt. It also doesn’t hurt that Anthony Carter played four seasons for the Heat and was a player development coach with them for five seasons before being hired by the Grizzlies last year.
Walter had an up-and-down season, averaging 14.5 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. He was an inconsistent shooter, although teams don’t worry about his long-term upside there. His shot looks clean and he can make them from a variety of situations.
Teams, however, worry about everything else. Walter isn’t really a lead guard because he doesn’t see the floor well as a passer. Defensively, Walter struggled at times to stay in front of players.
Scouts are split on Walter’s upside. Most don’t see him as a star, but they disagree on whether he’s a long-term NBA starter or merely a rotation player. Those who believe he will a high-level shooter despite making just 34.1 percent from 3 last season tend to be buyers. But his range is somewhere from No. 11 down to No. 22 or so, which is lower than what it was earlier in the season.
The 76ers are seen league-wide as a candidate to trade their pick. Either they will need to move their pick for a star, or they’ll need to create enough cap space to add a star and more talent in free agency.
![](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/12/06201325/jakobe-scaled.jpg)
Ja’Kobe Walter rises in the paint for a shot over Seton Hall guard Dre Davis. (Tony Gutierrez / Associated Press)
Kyle Filipowski | 6-11 big | 20 years old| Duke
The New Orleans Pelicans can choose to take the Lakers’ selection this year or wait to take it in 2025. That choice needs to be made by the start of June. I project the Pelicans defer to what is perceived as a stronger draft in 2025.
If the Lakers get the pick, Filipowski makes a ton of sense as a big man who can shoot and either pair well with Anthony Davis or serve as a third big. Filipowski averaged 16.4 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists while shooting about 50 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3 this season. He carried Duke through long stretches of games with his ability to catch the ball on the block and score, but pro scouts find his well-rounded perimeter game more appealing. Filipowski can shoot from the perimeter, attack heavy closeouts and bring the ball up the court in grab-and-go situations. His passing took a nice leap this past season, and he was more comfortable reading the court.
I also think Filipowski’s defense is better than its reputation. The Blue Devils had a top-16 defense in the country this past season, and he usually positions himself well, contests enough shots and can slide his feet a couple of times on an island to stay with wings and even some guards. It’s difficult to find 7-footers who can dribble, pass and shoot. Filipowski can do all three.
Tristan da Silva | 6-8 forward | 23 years old | Colorado
Da Silva has long been one of my favorites, but scouts have finally come around following his strong finish to the year and play in the NCAA Tournament. Over his final 14 games, da Silva averaged 17.1 points while shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from 3. He grabbed 4.6 rebounds, dished out 2.2 assists and grabbed 1.3 steals.
Da Silva is an extremely well-rounded player. He’s made nearly 40 percent from 3 over the last two seasons. He moves well without the ball but can also handle it himself and make good passing decisions. He processes the game quickly and plays at a high speed even if he doesn’t have great athletic tools himself. He isn’t an elite defender, but he’s smart, adequate against other forwards and sharp off the ball. He ticks a lot of boxes that make him profile well as a solid rotation player in today’s NBA.
He hits a lot of what the Magic could use in the frontcourt.
Yves Missi | 6-11 big | 20 years old | Baylor
Missi is a project, but he’s one with elite tools that project to a clear NBA role. As a legitimate 7-footer with a 7-5 wingspan, Missi might have the best frame of any low-usage center prospect in the class. He’s a terrific athlete who moves his feet fluidly in space, given his size, and can sky for impressive lob finishes in transition and from the dunker spot underneath the hoop. He blocks shots well and has potential to stick with guards for multiple slides on defense. He made the Big 12 All-Defense team as a freshman while averaging 10.7 points per game on 61 percent from the field.
He profiles as a Clint Capela-style NBA big man who can guard a bit in space once he picks up the nuances of ball-screen coverage and protect the rim with his physical frame. He needs to put on some weight in his lower half and get stronger through his base, as he too often gets moved on the block and can struggle on the defensive glass. But he has the look of a competent defensive starting center if he can reach his ceiling.
The Raptors could use big-man depth behind Jakob Poeltl. They tried to fill that hole by drafting Christian Koloko early in the second round in 2022, but his blood clot issue forced the team to release him.
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Bub Carrington | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Pittsburgh
Carrington was the talk of the scouting community after conference championship week, when he put together several monster games as Pittsburgh made a late push for an NCAA Tournament berth that came up short. His best games make him look like a future lottery pick. His worst games make him seem like a player who will be stuck in the G League for multiple years as he learns how to attack and make decisions.
I’ve come around on Carrington after digging deeper into his tape once the season ended. He is a monster pull-up shooter, a sharp passer and improved defender throughout the year. He was productive at Pittsburgh this season in averaging 13.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists, though he shot just 41.2 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from 3. He’s also the youngest high-level college player in the class, not turning 19 years old until July.
Any team that takes him will need to be patient and willing to go through some growing pains, but those willing to do so may end up with a lottery-level talent. His range is seen as being No. 15 to No. 35, but I bet he goes in the first round. The Cavs could use more scoring depth off the bench behind Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, given that Caris LeVert is a free agent this summer.
21. New Orleans Pelicans (via MIL)
Zach Edey | 7-4 center | 22 years old | Purdue
Edey was the best player in college basketball, averaging 25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and more than two blocks per game on his way to back-to-back National Player of the Year awards. He establishes position anywhere and everywhere on the court because of his size and strength, yet possesses remarkable touch around the rim. He’s somehow underrated in ball-screen actions. One could make the case that he’s the best screen-setter in the country with the way he consistently crushes guards trying to get through and rolls to the rim for deep post-ups or easy buckets. Edey has improved defensively over his time in college. He become a good, impactful drop-coverage pick-and-roll defender and takes up enough space to dissuade guard from driving and finishing around the basket.
The issue with his fit in the NBA are obvious: He’s a 7-4 supergiant who doesn’t move particularly well laterally. Can he stop ballhandlers from turning the corner on him defensively? Can he get back in transition in the up-and-down NBA?
The Pelicans might have a significant need at center with Jonas Valančiūnas hitting free agency. I’d rather have a center who can shoot from 3 next to Zion Williamson, but Edey is clearly the best big on the board at this point.
Furphy has a lot of the attributes NBA teams seek when trying to identify projects worth a long-term investment. It’s hard to find wings with Furphy’s size and athleticism. He’s come a long way in just 18 months to even get to this point. His athleticism and shooting ability always made him an intriguing upside swing, but when he played at the Center of Excellence in Australia, he didn’t seem to know how to impact the game. He was up and down this past season at Kansas, but he clearly earned Bill Self’s trust, which is not particularly easy for freshmen to do. Still, he averaged nine points per game in total and only 8.6 points in 30 minutes per night with a 44.1 true shooting percentage over his final seven games.
Furphy is projected by scouts as a likely first-round pick, but I’ve placed him here in large part because there is little leaguewide belief in the Suns being the team to will be making this selection. Owner Mat Ishbia is clearly in win-now mode, and the team can package this pick with its 2031 first-rounder to get a player who can provide more immediate value. Additionally, team president and GM James Jones is not known to value the draft highly.
Pacome Dadiet | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Ratiopharm Ulm
Dadiet is rising fast up the board for teams after a strong stretch of games in Germany, where he has averaged about 10 points per game while shooting 54 percent from the field and 45 percent from 3 in limited attempts. A big French wing with long arms, Dadiet’s offensive game has impressed scouts most. He looks to have a workable NBA shot as well as sharp offensive instincts as a cutter. However, he does not play up to his tools on defense at this stage and hasn’t shown a ton as a playmaker for his teammates.
The Bucks are in a tough spot, and it’s hard to tell exactly what they will do with this pick. Trading it should certainly be on the table given their commitment to winning now. On the other hand, general manager Jon Horst’s front office has really prioritized the project-wing archetype in recent years with picks such as Andre Jackson Jr., MarJon Beauchamp and Chris Livingston. It’s clear they’re trying to find a player to fill that big wing role.
Tyler Kolek | 6-1 guard | 23 years old | Marquette
Kolek was exploding onto the scene before suffering an oblique injury that held him out the Big East tournament. From Jan. 15 until Feb. 25, Marquette went 10-1 as Kolek averaged 16.9 points and 9.6 assists per game while shooting 48.6 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3. In total, Kolek rightfully won All-American honors on his way to 15.3 points and 7.7 assists per game.
Kolek is a crafty guard. I’m not convinced he can even dunk, but he knows exactly how to play off two feet and is an elite distributor in ball screens. He made a big leap as a shooter this past season, drilling 38.8 percent from 3 while looking much more confident pulling up when opportunities arise. Kolek must prove he has the foot speed to hold up on defense in the NBA, and he’ll need to prove he can create separation with the ball in his hands against better defenders. But any team looking for a backup guard could plug Kolek in early.
Indiana’s T.J. McConnell is a name that often comes up as a comparison for Kolek.
25. New York Knicks
DaRon Holmes | 6-9 big | 21 years old | Dayton
Holmes had an outstanding season at Dayton this past year, winning All-American honors by averaging 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 blocks while hitting 54.4 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from 3. He a versatile big who has a lot of answers for what teams present him in ball screens. He can pick-and-pop, short roll to pass, short roll to finish himself or roll all the way to the rim to catch a lob. Defensively, he’s a good shot blocker on the interior and has flashed potential to stick with guards for a couple of slides on the perimeter.
The Knicks are another team seen league-wide as a potential trade partner, as coach Tom Thibodeau is not likely to want multiple first-round rookies on his team. Additionally, the Knicks have generally tried to add more assets for the future to create more potential avenues to complete trades involving future draft picks.
![](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2024/03/19203529/GettyImages-1799140381-scaled.jpg)
DaRon Holmes celebrates a bucket during the Shriners Children’s Charleston Classic. (Mitchell Layton / Getty Images)
26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers)
Bobi Klintman | 6-9 wing/forward | 20 years old | Cairns Taipans
Klintman had an up-and-down season in the National Basketball League. Playing for Cairns as a member of the league’s Next Star development program, Klintman had some big games, especially in the first half of the season when Cairns was rolling. However, he missed sporadic time dealing with a few injuries over the back half of the season as Cairns fell out of contention.
Klintman can knock down shots from the perimeter, having made 35.4 percent from 3 this season and 80 percent from the line. He’s excellent on the break, where he can handle and make nice passes. He’s still learning his own capabilities as he grows into his frame, and his feel for the game is still developing after he picked up the sport late in his youth. In total, he averaged 9.7 points and 4.8 rebounds per game last season.
Not every team likes Klintman, but the ones who do tend to like the idea of a big wing who can shoot. I think somewhere in the No. 20 to No. 35 range is his most likely landing spot.
Sallis has been one of this draft cycle’s biggest risers. The former Gonzaga guard averaged 18.3 points per game while shooting 49.9 percent from the field and 41.6 percent from 3 in his lone season with Wake Forest. The 3-point shooting is the big leap. In his two seasons at Gonzaga, Sallis never hit more than 27 percent of his 3s. Now, Sallis has confidence and drilled his nearly six 3-point attempts per game at a high level. If he can keep that up — and his free-throw percentages have long indicated some shooting potential — he has a chance to be the kind of scoring combo guard who litters NBA benches league-wide. He’s athletic and shifty and can play on or off the ball consistently.
At this point in the draft, teams are just looking for a useful rotation player. Sallis ticks a lot of boxes for the Timberwolves if his shooting is real, considering their need for scoring off the bench.
Alex Karaban | 6-7 wing | Connecticut
Karaban is one of the players who is really testing their draft stock this season. He may or may not be in this draft, and a big part of that decision will have to do with his performance at this week’s NBA Draft Combine. Karaban can really shoot the ball and has drilled 39 percent of his nearly 400 3-point attempts the last two seasons. He averaged over 13 points and five rebounds last season while cutting at a high level and defending off the ball in a team concept at a terrific level.
He’s an extremely high IQ player in a way that would translate exceptionally well toward playing with Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets. Under general manager Calvin Booth, the Nuggets have tended to draft older prospects who profile as winners off the bench.
29. Utah Jazz (via Thunder)
Tyler Smith | 6-9 big | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Smith is an upside swing for a team seeking a big with perimeter skills. He’s an unfinished player, but it’s hard to find big athletes who can shoot like him. At 6-11 with about a 7-1 wingspan, Smith moves well in transition and off the ball on offense. He’s a strong backdoor cutter and has the leaping ability to play effectively out of the dunker spot. More than that, Smith has a beautiful jumper that should translate well to the NBA as he gets stronger and more consistent. He hit 36 percent from 3 on his way to 13.8 points and 5.1 rebounds per game.
Smith’s defense, however, needs a lot of work, whether he’s defending power forwards or centers. He’s messy in help situations and needs to get much more comfortable executing within a team’s scheme. It’s hard to see him logging a lot of minutes early in his NBA career, but the former five-star prospect could become a difference-maker down the road if his team is patient.
Jaylon Tyson | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | California
Tyson has gone on a real journey. After entering college as a top-40 player in his recruiting class, Tyson went from Texas to Texas Tech to Cal in three years. He finally emerged as an NBA prospect this past season. At 6-7 with long arms, he has great measurements for the NBA. He’s not an explosive athlete, but he’s powerful and isn’t all that bothered by contact, allowing him to get the most out of his length and athleticism. He averaged 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from 3.
He’s another guy scouts are on the fence about. His decision-making can be frustrating, as he often predetermines his reads, and his shooting remains in question because he’s never taken a high volume of 3s. Somewhere between picks No. 20 and No. 40 looks about right at this stage, although I think he could move up in the pre-draft process.
Second Round
31. Toronto Raptors (via Pistons): Ryan Dunn | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | Virginia
32. Utah Jazz (via Wizards): Kyshawn George | 6-7 wing | 20 years old | Miami (Fla.)
33. Milwaukee Bucks (via Trail Blazers): Kel’el Ware | 7-0 big | Indiana
34. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hornets): Cam Christie | 6-5 wing | Minnesota
35. San Antonio Spurs: Baylor Scheierman | 6-6 wing | Creighton
36. Indiana Pacers (via Raptors): Payton Sandfort | 6-6 wing | Iowa
37. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Grizzlies): Cam Spencer | 6-3 guard | Connecticut
38. New York Knicks (via Jazz): Melvin Ajinca | 6-7 wing | Saint-Quentin
39. Memphis Grizzlies (via Nets): P.J. Hall | 6-8 big | Clemson
40. Portland Trail Blazers (via Hawks): A.J. Johnson | 6-4 guard | Illawarra
41. Philadelphia 76ers (via Bulls): Oso Ighodaro | 6-10 big | Marquette
42. Charlotte Hornets (via Rockets): Trey Alexander | 6-3 guard | 21 years old | Creighton
43. Miami Heat: Jamal Shead | 6-0 guard | Houston
44. Houston Rockets (via Warriors): Antonio Reeves | 6-5 wing | Kentucky
45. Sacramento Kings: Kevin McCullar | 6-5 wing | Kansas
46. LA Clippers (via Pacers): Pelle Larsson | 6-5 wing | Arizona
47. Orlando Magic: Justin Edwards | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | Kentucky
48. San Antonio Spurs (via Lakers): Dillon Jones | 6-5 wing | Weber State
49. Indiana Pacers (via Cavaliers): Ajay Mitchell | 6-3 guard | UC Santa Barbara
50. Indiana Pacers (via Pelicans): K.J. Simpson | 6-0 guard | Colorado
51. Washington Wizards (via Suns): Ariel Hukporti | 6-11 big | Melbourne United
52. Indiana Pacers (via Bucks): Adem Bona | 6-8 big | UCLA
53. Detroit Pistons (via Knicks): Nikola Djurisic | 6-7 wing | Mega
54. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks): Tristen Newton | 6-3 guard | Connecticut
55. Los Angeles Lakers (via Clippers): Ulrich Chomche | 6-10 big | NBA Africa Academy
56. Denver Nuggets (via Timberwolves): Juan Nunez | 6-3 guard | Ratiopharm Ulm
57. Memphis Grizzlies (via Thunder): Jalen Bridges | 6-7 wing | Baylor
58. Dallas Mavericks (via Celtics): Nique Clifford | 6-5 wing | Colorado State
(Top photos: Paul Kane / Getty Images, David Becker / NBAE via Getty Images, Altan Gocher / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images. Illustration by Sean Reilly / The Athletic)