Phew. Well, what a thrilling group stage that was at Euro 2024.
The atmosphere, drama, and sheer quality shown from (nearly) all 24 teams made for an incredible opening 12 days of football — and the most exciting phase of the tournament is yet to come. Before we turn to the knockout ties, let’s look back at some data quirks and tactical trends that caught the eye across the 36 group games.
Where are each team most dangerous in attack? What is up with the surge in own goals? Which nation plays most like a club side?
Allow The Athletic to walk you through it all…
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How does each nation generate chances?
Building coherent attacking sequences can be tricky at international level, where the opportunity to train specific configurations and patterns is limited by time and/or personnel. Nevertheless, there are still patterns to spot among each of the competing nations when looking to see where they are most prolific in their chance creation.
For example, Spain have been a particular threat from wide areas, with Nico Williams driving towards the byline from their left flank — supported by Marc Cucurella behind him. On the right side, Lamine Yamal has often drifted inside into the half-space on his stronger left foot to create chances, as you can see in the graphic below.
Meanwhile, the likes of France and Denmark have shown a particular penchant for driving into the penalty area and arriving in the half-space to play a cutback into central areas. By The Athletic’s definition, France’s nine cutback chances created were comfortably more than any other side in the group stage — masterminded by the evasive Ousmane Dembele on their right.
By contrast, hosts Germany have displayed greater chance creation via crossing from outside the penalty area. Despite their narrow setup with dual No 10s Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, the full-backs do provide width on either flank, with Germany logging the third-most open-play crosses (55) — the majority of them coming from Max Mittelstadt and Joshua Kimmich.
The perfect example of Germany’s threat in wide areas was shown by Niclas Fullkrug’s excellent late equaliser against Switzerland from a David Raum cross.
Yes, you need to be aware of their marauding No 10s, but Germany have strong delivery from both flanks.
See also: Portugal’s right half-space threat, Switzerland’s left-sided drives to the penalty area and England’s… actually, let’s not go there.
Goalscoring quirkiness dominates
We have to discuss two of the leading narratives to come out of the tournament so far.
First, what is it with all these own goals?
Seven players put the ball in their own net, overtaking the total in the Euro 2020 group stage (six).
Even accounting for the higher number of games played in the expanded 24-team format, there were only six own goals across all games between the European Championships in 1976 and 2012. That figure has been blown out of the water in a matter of days at Euro 2024.
67% – Two thirds (18/27) of all own goals scored in UEFA European Championship history have come in the last two editions – 11 in EURO 2020 and seven so far at #EURO2024. Blunder. pic.twitter.com/jnAuFLpDKs
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) June 25, 2024
The manner of own goals ranges from the unlucky to the outright ridiculous in the case of Turkey’s Samet Akaydin, whose no-look backpass to goalkeeper Altay Bayindir was a howler you would be more accustomed to seeing on a Sunday League pitch than the international stage.
The real question is, why have there been so many? Perhaps the lack of team coherence — or greater disparity in quality — that comes with international football might have some part to play, but this has been the tournament of the OG so far.
Second, many players have shown a flagrant disregard for expected goals this summer.
Fifteen goals have been scored from outside the penalty area, which overtakes the total tally registered across the entirety of the 2022 World Cup (13). As a share of the 81 goals scored in total, that is a rate of 19 per cent from 18 yards or more, which currently sits as the highest share since Euro 92.
Belters from Romania’s Nicolae Stanciu, Arda Guler of Turkey and Denmark’s Morten Hjulmand have caught the eye alongside an obligatory long-ranger from Switzerland’s Xherdan Shaqiri, but why is this trend so high?
Sorry to burst the bubble, but this does feel like little more than statistical variance. Rather than a crazy increase in efforts from distance, our brain naturally skews to the outcome — goals. At the tournament level, the share of shots taken outside the box stands at 39 per cent, which is barely more than the 37 per cent at the previous Euros.
For those who are wondering, the nation with the highest share of shots outside the box? Slovenia with 54 per cent. The lowest share? That would be Georgia, with just 19 per cent.
In an analytics era where shot locations have trended closer to goal, it has been refreshing to see some screamers fly in, to spark the game into life.
It has been fun while it lasted, but expect those crazy thunderbolts to subside as we enter the knockout stage.
Bookended drama
You would be forgiven for discounting Group C, but the generally thrilling nature of this group stage has a psychological phenomenon to thank for it — the primacy and recency effect.
This is an observation that information presented at the beginning and end of a specific time period is remembered more than what occurs in the middle. The relentless starts and frantic finishes have meant that a lot of Euro 2024 games will live long in the memory.
We have already seen two of the three fastest goals in the tournament’s history. Youri Tielemans of Belgium took 73 seconds to score against Romania, which is rapid, but nowhere near the new record set by Albania’s Nedim Bajrami, who scored after just 23 seconds against Italy.
The numbers highlight this perfectly.
Breaking the matches down into 15-minute periods, there has been a spike of goals in the opening half an hour. As a result, we have frequently seen games open up as the trailing team are forced to attack more to try to restore parity.
Interestingly, a glance at the expected goals in each 15-minute section points to a more stable generation of chances across matches. The opening 30 minutes of games has been the only period where teams have scored more goals than expected, based on the quality of chances presented to them.
It’s another quirk, but the skew towards such goal conversion early on has made for a better spectacle across a lot of games.
As you can see above, the most frequent share of goals has been in the closing stages. Even accounting for the extended amount of time added on, this year’s tournament has had 10 second-half stoppage-time goals, which is the most since the group stage began in 1980.
Another record has been set, with Hungary’s winner against Scotland logged at 99 minutes 32 seconds — the latest regulation goal in the history of the competition. Barely 24 hours later, Italy’s Mattia Zaccagni hit a 97th-minute equaliser to secure qualification from the group stage and register his country’s latest goal scored in Euros history that was not in extra time.
Sure, there were also goals in the middle period of the games, but the efforts bookended at the start and finish have been a key theme of this year’s group stage.
Already more group-stage goals in the first 15 minutes and beyond the 90th minute than Euro 2020 (11 and 9 this tournament, 8 and 3 last tournament).
It’s throwing up weird game states and teams are struggling. Only 55% of games won by the team scoring first. 76% at Euro 2020).
— Liam Tharme (@LiamTharmeCoach) June 24, 2024
Sticking on the subject of goals, there are a couple of players who might feel particularly hard done by to have not found the back of the net.
Even when he doesn’t score, Cristiano Ronaldo still manages to garner attention. The Portugal captain’s 12 shots without a goal were the most of any player in the group stage and the first time in an international career dating back to 2003 that he has finished the group stage of a European Championship or World Cup without scoring.
That also means Ronaldo has not scored in his last seven games at the Euros and World Cup, which is his longest streak without finding the back of the net in a major tournament.
You also have to feel a little sorry for Romelu Lukaku. Belgium’s striker arrived in the tournament with the best goals-per-cap rate (0.74) of any player in the tournament and his 10 shots in the three games have resulted in… no goals. Seven of those shots were on target — the most of any player not to score.
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Within those 10 attempts, there has been some poor finishing from Lukaku, but in mitigation, he has had three goals overturned by VAR. If not for some fine margins, we could be talking about him being the tournament’s joint-top scorer after the group phase.
With Belgium facing a tough tie against France in the last 16 on Monday, it now looks increasingly likely that, despite his best efforts, Lukaku could be going home without seeing the net ripple.
In the same way that it is difficult to curate coherent attacking patterns in international football, having a coordinated pressing structure out of possession — a staple of the modern club game — can also be easier said than done at major tournaments.
Even the stronger nations will often retreat into a mid-block when they lose possession. This is easier for managers to coach in the short periods of time they get with the players, ensuring their side are compact and difficult to play through rather than risk getting picked off by an incoherent press.
Unless you are named Ralf Rangnick, that is.
Austria’s manager has coached a clear, relentless style that is befitting of his roots in the Red Bull stable of clubs, with the Austrians arguably being the team at Euro 2024 to look most like a club side — such is the identity that they play with, both in and out of possession.
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Any Rangnick team is (his recent half-season at Manchester United aside) synonymous with high pressing, and Austria’s nine passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) — a metric where a lower number denotes a more active pressing approach — shows them to be among the most intense pressers of any side in the group stage.
Rangnick’s boys are not afraid to squeeze the pitch and pin their opponents back when they smell blood. Using each side’s average defensive offside distance as a proxy of defensive line height, Austria’s 35.1 metres is the second-highest in the tournament so far.
Meanwhile, their 15 possessions won in the attacking third is the fifth-highest among all teams in their opening three games. Topping Group D, above France and the Netherlands, only further exemplifies the strength of having such a clear identity.
Keep an eye on Austria, who next play Turkey in the round of 16 on Tuesday.
They will not fail to entertain.
The merits of a back three
The formations that pop up on your TV screen before kick-off can often be misleading as to a team’s actual setup, given the shifts that occur in and out of possession, or depending on the unfolding state of the game.
However, a glance at the most common starting formations in this tournament reveals two interesting narratives: a 4-2-3-1 shape has been the predominant choice, but there have also been plenty of sides setting up with a back three.
This is before you account for the shifts in shape when teams are in possession.
The likes of Germany, Croatia and Austria may start with a back four on paper, but you will frequently see one of their midfielders (Toni Kroos, Mateo Kovacic or Nicolas Seiwald, in their cases) drop into the defensive line to help create overloads within their side’s build-up to work the ball through the thirds.
Against stubborn mid-block sides who are less willing to press, this has been a key tactical approach used by the top nations. If not via their midfielders, teams such as Italy and Belgium have pushed one of their full-backs higher up the pitch, while the one on the other wing maintained his position, morphing into a 3-2-4-1 shape on the ball.
There have been fewer occasions of teams pressing high to regain possession to generate shot-ending opportunities, so the need for careful build-up patterns is crucial to a lot of nations progressing into the final third. The increased use of a back-three structure — whether situational or within a starting formation — has been key to that.
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(Photo: Turkey’s own goal was one of many already at these Euros; Kenzo Triboullard/AFP via Getty Images)
