If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.

(Stats are courtesy of our friends at Trumedia and capture action through June 26)

Here we go…

Starting Pitchers

As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.

Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (min. 20 Pitches, Past 30 Days)

  • Kyle Gibson, STL — Curveball 58.6%, Sweeper 50.0%
  • Jordan Montgomery, ARI — Changeup 57.1%, Curveball 39.2%
  • Chris Flexen, CHW — Curveball 44.0%, Changeup 37.8%
  • Spencer Arrighetti, HOU — Curveball 43.5%, Sweeper 40.0%
  • Ryan Feltner, COL — Changeup 41.2%, Curveball 31.0%
  • Roddery Munoz, MIA — Changeup 40.9%, Cutter 31.1%
  • Brayan Bello, BOS — Slider 39.1%, Changeup 33.8%
  • Carson Spiers, CIN — 4-Seam Fastball 35.5%, Sweeper 31.3%
  • Alec Marsh, KC — Slider 34.8%, Sweeper 33.3%

Available Starters: ≤.330 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon, Past 30 Days)

  • Valente Bellozo, MIA — 0.190 xwOBAcon
  • Yariel Rodriguez, TOR — 0.198 xwOBAcon
  • Landon Knack, LAD — 0.213 xwOBAcon
  • Kyle Freeland, COL — 0.226 xwOBAcon
  • Miles Mikolas, STL — 0.295 xwOBAcon
  • Cade Povich, BAL — 0.296 xwOBAcon
  • Drew Thorpe, CHW — 0.306 xwOBAcon
  • Adam Mazur, SD — 0.326 xwOBAcon
  • Tyler Anderson, LAA — 0.327 xwOBAcon
  • Spencer Arrighetti, HOU — 0.328 xwOBAcon
  • Ben Lively, CLE — 0.330 xwOBAcon

Hidden Gem: By the last week of June, the daily war of attrition leaves most teams (and analysts for that matter) exhausted and limping listlessly toward the All-Star break. Another week of fantasy means another mostly empty pitching cupboard, further stressing our lasting theme of proactivity in these articles. It’s as easy as ABC, people — Always Be Churning. Analysis of this week’s hidden gem, Landon Knack, isn’t quite as simple as having a recordable heart rate, but we’re getting pretty close. The 26-year-old rookie filled in admirably for the Dodgers all season whenever they called his number, and this time it looks like a rotation spot is his for the foreseeable future. Pitching injuries have ripped through the Dodgers roster, already claiming Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, and Tony Gonsolin — essentially leaving an entire functional staff on the shelf.

Enter Knack, the next man up for Los Angeles. Coming off a solid MiLB career — 275.2 IP; 3.43 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20.1% K-BB, 0.91 HR/9 — there’s potential to fill in nicely as a backend stopgap for both real-life and fantasy clubs. Knack deploys a standard arsenal (FF, SL, CH, CU), but gets extra credit for throwing everything to left- and right-handed hitters. Ideally we’re targeting starters in-season (particularly in the case of young guns) with multiple plus offerings to provide an escape hatch when the money pitch isn’t working. While he may not have pitching-ninja-gif-worthy stuff, proper sequencing, plus possessing a +23% whiff (SL, CH, CU) with sub-.212 xBA on three of four  (FF, SL, CH), will play at the MLB level (not to mention having the vaunted Dodgers lineup supporting him as a heavy favorite every five days). Knack has managed at least +5 IP in four of his five starts without allowing a third run in any of them. The ~18% strikeout rate is suboptimal, thus far, keeping me from going all-in on FAAB bids, but if you need of a warm body with a pop for double-digit wins rest-of-season, here’s your chance. Landon Knack, paddy-whack, give this dog a bone (sorry, the dad jokes come free with your subscription).

Honorable Mention: Landing on both lists over the course of a month can’t be ignored, so keep an eye on Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti. Call me old fashioned, but I’m a stickler for command, and his track record for walks was a non-starter.

Available Hitters: >106.5 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)

  • Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 110.6 mph EV
  • Jake Burger, 3B, MIA — 110.2 mph EV
  • Brent Rooker, OF, OAK — 110.0 mph EV
  • Mark Vientos, 3B, NYM — 109.1 mph EV
  • Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 108.9 mph EV
  • Edmundo Sosa, SS, PHI — 107.9 mph EV
  • Dominic Canzone, OF, SEA — 107.9 mph EV
  • Shea Langeliers, C, OAK — 107.8 mph EV
  • Elehuris Montero, 1B, COL — 107.8 mph EV
  • Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 107.7 mph EV
  • Hunter Goodman, OF, COL — 106.9 mph EV
  • Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 106.8 mph EV

Available Hitters: .385 xwOBAcon (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)

  • Daniel Schneemann, SS/OF, CLE — 20.0% Chase, 0.476 xwOBAcon
  • Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 24.6% Chase, 0.471 xwOBAcon
  • Luke Raley, 1B/OF, SEA — 23.9% Chase, 0.458 xwOBAcon
  • Matt Carpenter, UT, STL — 25.0% Chase, 0.446 xwOBAcon
  • Enmanuel Valdez, 2B, BOS — 23.8% Chase, 0.437 xwOBAcon
  • Brendan Rodgers, 2B, COL — 24.2% Chase, 0.423 xwOBAcon
  • Jack Suwinski, OF, PIT — 19.5% Chase, 0.422 xwOBAcon
  • Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 22.3% Chase, 0.421 xwOBAcon
  • Michael Busch, 1B, CHC — 20.5% Chase, 0.421 xwOBAcon
  • Rob Refsnyder, OF, BOS — 18.9% Chase, 0.421 xwOBAcon
  • Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT — 15.4% Chase, 0.399 xwOBAcon
  • Spencer Horwitz, 2B, TOR — 22.9% Chase, 0.398 xwOBAcon
  • Carlos Santana, 1B, MIN — 21.3% Chase, 0.396 xwOBAcon
  • MJ Melendez, OF, KC — 25.3% Chase, 0.394 xwOBAcon
  • JJ Bleday, OF, OAK — 24.2% Chase, 0.388 xwOBAcon
  • Manuel Margot, OF, MIN — 21.2% Chase, 0.388 xwOBAcon
  • Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF — 21.2% Chase, 0.388 xwOBAcon
  • Ty France, 1B, SEA — 16.6% Chase, 0.388 xwOBAcon
  • J.P. Crawford, SS, SEA — 15.1% Chase, 0.386 xwOBAcon

Available Hitters: ≥17% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)

  • Matt Carpenter UT, STL — 22.2% Pulled FBLD%
  • Enmanuel Valdez 2B, BOS — 21.9% Pulled FBLD%
  • Harrison Bader OF,, NYM — 21.5% Pulled FBLD%
  • Eddie Rosario OF, WSH — 21.3% Pulled FBLD%
  • Thairo Estrada 2B, SF — 21.3% Pulled FBLD%
  • Kyle Higashioka C, SD — 19.6% Pulled FBLD%
  • Keibert Ruiz C, WSH — 19.3% Pulled FBLD%
  • Charlie Blackmon OF, COL — 17.8% Pulled FBLD%
  • Wilmer Flores 1B, SF — 17.6% Pulled FBLD%
  • Josh Bell 1B, MIA — 17.5% Pulled FBLD%
  • Jose Siri OF, TB — 17.5% Pulled FBLD%
  • Carlos Santana 1B, MIN — 17.3% Pulled FBLD%
  • Jake Fraley OF, CIN — 17.3% Pulled FBLD%
  • Paul DeJong SS, CHW — 17.1% Pulled FBLD%

Hidden Gem: I went through fantasy sticker shock discovering that rookie second baseman Spencer Horwitz sits under 30% rostered on both Yahoo and CBS. Maybe Toronto’s recent roster shuffling instilled doubt in his playing time, but now that Orelvis Martinez has received an 80-game PED suspension, Horwitz’s window of opportunity is wide open. The 26-year-old rookie received the call on June 8, and he still hasn’t hit any lower than second in the order. His bat-to-ball abilities make this the easiest skill-based call of the week. How often can you combine double-digit barrel and pulled FBLDs with elite chase and zone-contact rates at the top of a decent lineup? The track record for batting average (.307 career MiLB hitter) should translate into runs and provide a multi-category boost for a Jays offense in need of a spark, even if the power recedes.

Relief Pitchers

Targeting roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when drafting closers, but zeroing in on stat combinations like elite command plus swing-and-miss-ability could help us identify the potential next men up, especially in more vulnerable bullpens. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does relievers better.

Relievers: >15% Swinging Strike And

  • Dedniel Nunez, NYM — 17.6% SwStrk, 27.5% Ball
  • Dylan Lee, ATL— 18.8% SwStrk, 30.1% Ball
  • Adrian Morejon, SDP— 14.7% SwStrk, 30.3% Ball
  • Enyel De Los Santos, SDP— 15.5% SwStrk, 31.4% Ball
  • José Ruiz, PHI— 16.0% SwStrk, 31.5% Ball
  • A.J. Minter, ATL— 15.9% SwStrk, 32.4% Ball
  • Justin Slaten, BOS— 15.1% SwStrk, 33.2% Ball
  • Ryne Stanek, SEA— 14.8% SwStrk, 33.3% Ball
  • Emilio Pagan, CIN— 14.5% SwStrk, 33.8% Ball
  • Daniel Hudson, LAD— 16.0% SwStrk, 34.7% Ball

Top waiver wire adds by position

Catcher

  1. Patrick Bailey, SF — +10 teams
  2. Bo Naylor, CLE — 10/12 teams
  3. Connor Wong, BOS — +12 teams
  4. Shea Langeliers, OAK — 12/15 teams
  5. Kyle Higashioka, SD — +15 teams

*Hunter Goodman (COL) is up to seven games at catcher  — potentially a huge value with new eligibility if he will also DH. Make sure to check your league’s rules.

First Base

  1. Michael Toglia, COL— +10 teams
  2. Carlos Santana, MIN — 10/12 teams
  3. Nate Lowe, TEX — +12 teams
  4. Jake Bauers, MIL — 12/15 teams
  5. Joey Meneses, WAS — +15 teams

Second Base

  1. Jonathan India, CIN — +10 teams
  2. Spencer Horwitz, TOR — 10/12 teams
  3. Luis García Jr., WAS — +12 teams
  4. Richard Palacios, TB — 12/15 teams
  5. Enmanuel Valdez, BOS — +15 teams

Shortstop

  1. Zach Neto, STL — +10 teams
  2. Jackson Merrill, SD — 10/12 teams
  3. J.P. Crawford, SEA — +12 teams
  4. Luis Rengifo, LAA — 12/15 teams
  5. Daniel Schneemann, CLE — +15 teams

Third Base

  1. Mark Vientos, NYM — +10 teams
  2. Matt Vierling, DET — 10/12 teams
  3. Jake Burger, MIA — +12 teams
  4. Nick Senzel, WAS — 12/15 teams
  5. Colt Keith, DET — +15 teams

Outfield, +10/12 Team

  1. Alec Burleson, STL
  2. Heliot Ramos, SF
  3. Cedric Mullins, BAL
  4. Andy Pages, LAD
  5. Alex Verdugo, NYY
  6. Trevor Larnach, MIN
  7. Brenton Doyle, COL
  8. Bryan De La Cruz, MIA
  9. Luke Raley, SEA
  10. Jose Siri, TB

Outfield, +12/15 Team

  1. Jo Adell, LAA
  2. MJ Melendez, KC
  3. Adam Duvall, ATL
  4. Jake Bauers, MIL
  5. JJ Bleday, OAK
  6. Jesús Sánchez, MIA
  7. Jake McCarthy, ARI
  8. Jesse Winker, WAS
  9. Harrison Bader, NYM
  10. Sal Frelick, MIL

Outfield, +15 Team/Only

  1. Tyrone Taylor, NYM
  2. Rob Refsnyder, BOS
  3. Brent Rooker, OAK
  4. Blake Perkins, MIL
  5. Michael Siani, STL
  6. Mark Canha, DET
  7. Dominic Canzone, SEA
  8. Andrew McCutchen, PIT
  9. Jake Meyers, HOU
  10. Tyler Freeman, CLE
  11. Jacob Young, WAS
  12. Wenceel Pérez, DET
  13. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
  14. Connor Joe, PIT
  15. Kyle Isbel, KC
  16. Gavin Sheets, CHW
  17. Jack Suwinski, PIT
  18. Nick Gordon, MIA
  19. Mickey Moniak, LAA
  20. Leody Taveras, TEX
  21. Miguel Andujar, OAK
  22. Johan Rojas, PHI
  23. Kevin Pillar, LAA
  24. Jonny DeLuca, TB
  25. Ramon Laureano, ATL
  26. Jake Cave, COL
  27. Tyler Nevin, OAK
  28. David Peralta, SD
  29. Richie Palacios, TB
  30. Corey Julks, CHW

Stash Candidates

Hitters

Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY — Aaron Boone announced the Yankees outfielder will be out up to eight weeks with a “pretty significant” oblique injury. Sigh.

Starters

  1. Gavin Williams, CLE
  2. Taj Bradley, TB
  3. Matt Waldron, SD
  4. Gavin Stone, LAD
  5. Simeon Woods-Richardson, MIN
  6. Landon Knack, LAD
  7. Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
  8. Griffin Canning, LAA
  9. Cade Povich, BAL
  10. Frankie Montas, CIN
  11. Drew Thorpe, CHW
  12. David Festa, MIN
  13. Jake Irvin, WAS
  14. Tylor Megill, NYM
  15. Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL
  16. Ryan Weathers, MIA
  17. Alec Marsh, KC
  18. Mitchell Parker, WAS
  19. Chase Silseth, LAA
  20. Tobias Myers, MIL
  21. Cole Irvin, BAL
  22. DJ Herz, MIA
  23. Yariel Rodríguez, TOR
  24. Michael Lorenzen, TEX
  25. Hurston Waldrep, ATL
  26. Hayden Wesneski, CHC
  27. J.P. Sears, OAK
  28. Ben Lively, CLE
  29. Carson Spiers, CIN
  30. Albert Suárez, BAL
  31. Slade Cecconi, ARI
  32. Adam Mazur, SD
  33. Hayden Birdsong, SF
  34. Joey Estes, OAK
  35. Colin Rea, MIL
  36. Trevor Rogers, MIA
  37. Josh Winckowski, BOS
  38. Hogan Harris, OAK
  39. Logan Allen, CLE
  40. Mitch Spence, OAK
  41. David Peterson, NYM
  42. Luis L. Ortiz, PIT
  43. Luis Medina, OAK
  44. Jonathan Cannon, CHW
  45. Bailey Falter, PIT
  46. Roddery Muñoz, MIA
  47. Ryan Feltner, COL

Relievers

  1. Aroldis Chapman, PIT
  2. Chad Green, TOR
  3. Ryne Stanek, SEA
  4. Jeff Hoffman, PHI
  5. Reed Garrett, NYM
  6. Tyler Kinley, COL
  7. Yennier Cano, BAL
  8. Chris Martin, BOS
  9. Nate Pearson, TOR
  10. John Brebbia, CHW
  11. Griffin Jax, MIN
  12. John Schreiber, KC
  13. Bryan Hudson, MIL
  14. Andrew Kittredge, STL
  15. Daniel Hudson, LAD
  16. Hunter Harvey, WAS
  17. Calvin Faucher, MIA
  18. Luis García, LAA
  19. Joe Jiménez, ATL
  20. Colin Holderman, PIT
  21. Jeremiah Estrada, SD
  22. Mark Leiter Jr., CHC
  23. Hunter Gaddis, CLE
  24. Luke Weaver, NYY
  25. Beau Brieske, DET
  26. Tyler Rogers, SF
  27. Fernando Cruz, CIN
  28. Ryan Thompson, ARI

Ranking Next Week’s Available Two-Steps

  1. Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN — vs. DET (Jack Flaherty) vs. HOU (TBD)
  2. David Peterson, NYM — @ WAS (MacKenzie Gore @ PIT (Bailey Falter)
  3. Yariel Rodriguez, TOR — vs. HOU (Hunter Brown) @ SEA (TBD)
  4. Bryse Wilson, MIL — @ COL (Austin Gomber) @ LAD (Gavin Stone)
  5. Kyle Hendricks, CHC — vs. PHI (Spencer Turnbull) vs. LAA (Roansy Contreras)
  6. Adam Mazur, SD — @ TEX (Nathan Eovaldi) vs. ARI (TBA)
  7. Roansy Contreras, LAA — @ OAK (Mitch Spence) @ CHC (Kyle Hendricks)
  8. Valente Bellozo, MIA — vs. BOS (Kutter Crawford) vs. CHW (TBA)
  9. Austin Gomber, COL — vs. MIL (Bryse Wilson vs. KC (Seth Lugo)

Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.

(Top photo of Spencer Horwitz: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

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