Ivan Toney had to sit and watch England toil against Slovakia for 93 minutes and 54 seconds before he could finally get onto the pitch and do something about the pickle they were in.

Within 40 seconds of his introduction during Sunday’s round of 16 tie, England had equalised and kept their hopes of winning Euro 2024 alive.

“Ivan Toney was pretty disgusted when I put him on with a minute to go,” said head coach Gareth Southgate after the game. “I think we have made up now. But he has had a big impact in the second goal.

“You put a sub on at that time, then it is a last throw of the dice and he maybe does not even touch the ball, so I completely understand it (Toney’s annoyance). I do not like putting a player in that position, but I just had a feeling he might be able to cause the bit of chaos that happened.”

Indeed, Toney did not touch the ball between going on as Phil Foden’s replacement and Jude Bellingham spectacularly bringing England level, but you could argue he still made a difference. The Brentford striker’s imposing presence in the penalty area had Slovakia worried and drew defenders away from Bellingham to create just enough space for the Real Madrid midfielder to force extra time.

His contribution to England’s winner — scored by Harry Kane early in the 30 minutes of extra time secured by Bellingham’s goal — was far more clear-cut, expertly heading Eberechi Eze’s miscued shot across the penalty area to Kane, who had found space at the far post.


Toney, top centre, celebrates Bellingham’s equaliser against Slovakia (Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images)

Toney’s crucial contribution in Gelsenkirchen has put him back in the spotlight and with just a year left on his contract, questions over the 28-year-old’s future linger.

Figures of £100million ($126.7m) have been mentioned, but can Brentford demand such a high fee when he could be available as a free agent this time next summer? Or is that the right price for a striker who is a consistent goalscorer at Premier League level and has now shown he can make an impact on international football, too?

The Athletic spoke to people within football and scoured the data in search of an answer.

Brentford head coach Thomas Frank paused for a few seconds, weighing up an appropriate answer to the question he had just been asked.

Since their arrival in the Premier League for the first time in the west London club’s history in August 2021, Ivan Toney has scored 36 goals and provided 11 assists in 85 league appearances. He is Brentford’s talisman and arguably the best player in their recent history, but a report emerged in April which suggested he could be available for between £30million and £40m this summer.

“Normally, I don’t go into these price labels,” Frank said a few days later while trying to hide his irritation. “But I would say that is very cheap for a 20-goal striker in the Premier League.”

It is an open secret Toney wants to leave Brentford after four seasons.

He has spoken about his ambition of playing for a “top club, competing for trophies” in multiple interviews.

Brentford finished ninth in the 2022-23 season, missing out on qualifying for the Europa Conference League, the third-tier continental competition, by two points. But they spent the last one battling relegation, eventually ending up 16th in the 20-club table. Toney had an underwhelming individual season, with only four goals in 17 league appearances (he didn’t play until January while completing an eight-month Football Association suspension for betting offences), but his performances for them overall mean nobody could begrudge him looking for a bigger challenge.


Frank is a huge fan of Toney, who is his No 1 striker and captain (Alex Pantling/Getty Images)

There were no approaches for Toney last summer when he was already banned, or in the winter window, when Brentford would have rejected any they did receive due to their precarious league position.

Brentford are now banking on selling him, though, as they have found a replacement in Igor Thiago. The now 23-year-old Brazilian’s signing was announced in February and he officially joined on Monday (July 1) for a club-record fee of €36.5million (£31m/$39.2m at current exchange rates), including add-ons, from Club Bruges in Belgium.

They stand to make a huge profit on Toney, who they signed from third-division Peterborough United in August 2020 for £5million and will want to eclipse their club-record sale (£28m, rising to £33m with add-ons) from Ollie Watkins’ move to Aston Villa in that same window.

Brentford found themselves in a similar situation to their current predicament last summer when goalkeeper David Raya entered the final 12 months of his deal. Raya, now 28, rejected a new contract offer which would have made him the best-paid player in their history. Senior figures wanted £40million for the Spain international but agreed to send him on loan to fellow Premier League side Arsenal with an option to buy. The overall package will be £30m when Raya joins Arsenal permanently this summer.

Traditionally, strikers are the most expensive players in the transfer market. Harry Kane was two years older than Toney is now when he joined Bayern Munich from Tottenham Hotspur last August in a move worth €100million. Like Toney, England’s captain only had a year left on his contract with Spurs.

Clearly, Toney does not possess the same experience as Kane. He has never played in any of the three European competitions at club level and still has just four caps after his involvement on Sunday. But Frank, who admittedly might be slightly biased, believes they belong in the same bracket.

“As a No 9, I don’t see many out there who are better in the world than Ivan,” Frank told Sky Sports’ Monday Night Football in September last year. “We have Kane, (Barcelona’s Robert) Lewandowski, (Manchester City’s Erling) Haaland. He scored 20 goals last year in a very good Brentford side, but we are not creating as many chances as the top six teams. Imagine him in a top team, he would easily score 20 to 25 goals. He is composed, a top finisher and has a top mentality.”

Toney scored a free kick against Nottingham Forest in his first game back following his suspension and found the back of the net three more times in Brentford’s next four fixtures. But he did not score again last season and he struggled with a hip injury. Toney’s quality was on show, though, when he produced a superb assist for Kristoffer Ajer in a 1-1 home draw against Manchester United at the end of March.

“Strikers are invaluable and Toney’s goalscoring ability is clear, but he brings you more than that,” one agent, who has brokered deals across the Premier League and the EFL and, like several others quoted in this piece, requested anonymity to protect relationships, tells The Athletic. “His natural movement and strength create pockets of space for others and that’s an incredible asset. If I was holding the purse strings at a ‘Big Six’ side, he would be at the top of my list.”

By taking a look at Toney’s smarterscout chart, which measures his ability across several different metrics with ratings between 1 and 99, you can see his strengths clearly.

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GO DEEPER

A guide to smarterscout and understanding The Athletic’s pizza charts

By analysing data from the 2022-23 season, because he played substantially more minutes then than in the one just ended, what stands out is Toney’s progressive passing rating (96 out of 99). Of Premier League centre-forwards, only Kane (with 42) completed more than his 33 through balls across the past three seasons. Clubs will be impressed by his work out of possession, including a 91 out of 99 for defending intensity, but low scores for ball retention ability (9/99) and the volume of his link-up play (8/99) will be a concern.

Toney’s shot map for that 2021-22 season illustrates how he is capable of winning aerial duels and then bursting into the box to attack crosses — 10 of his 25 non-penalty goals in the Premier League have been scored from six yards or fewer. He is reliable in front of goal but has slightly underperformed his expected goals (xG) number — which measures the quality of a chance — by 1.8 over his three Premier League seasons.

“He is a throwback striker — he can compete in the air, run in behind and his link-up play has improved,” one technical director says. “He’s 28, so he could still go to another level.”

Brentford will want to avoid their prized asset leaving for free when his contract expires in summer 2025, but if he did wait another year, Toney would be able to bank a signing-on bonus with his new employers.

“To Brentford, he is priceless,” the same technical director says. “But they have to sell. They can’t lose him for nothing. He will have a lot of options but £100million might scare a lot of people off. How many players are worth £100m? Not that many. I would put him in the bracket underneath, but a team might be willing to pay that because (with Toney) they could win the Champions League or the Premier League.”

“Having one year left on his contract is not so significant,” the agent says. “One year scoring goals is worth an awful lot of money to the big clubs — that could be the difference between qualifying for Europe or not.

“If he had three years left on his contract, he is a £100million player. If you allow for some kind of discount, he is worth £75m to £80m. If I was holding the purse strings at Arsenal or Chelsea, I would be comfortable paying that price and saying we have got fair value. Manchester United paid £64m for (Rasmus) Hojlund (last summer) and Toney is worth more than that.”

There is something else, which statistics cannot measure — Toney’s ingenuity.

Look at his third goal in a 5-2 victory against Leeds United in September 2022, where he rounded goalkeeper Illan Meslier and chipped the defenders from outside the box.

Brentford defender Mathias Jorgensen spoke about Toney’s “cheekiness” afterwards and said “he has a swagger about him that is unrivalled”. The club’s technical director Lee Dykes has compared him to Sweden’s iconic striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Toney scored with a backheel flick, which nutmegged Adam Webster, in a 2-0 win against Brighton & Hove Albion in October 2022, while he cleverly blocked defender Nathan Ake in the build-up to Neal Maupay’s effort in a 3-1 defeat against Manchester City in February. These are the moments that stand out, but there are other examples of silky flicks and tricks.

So, where will he end up?

“You need a market to drive the price up and I don’t know if he has that,” a senior figure at a European club tells The Athletic. “Part of his problem is a few years ago there was a real desire for a No 9 who can hold up the ball, bring others into play and is a great finisher, but it doesn’t feel like that’s how the elite clubs have moved. There are only a few teams he can join and he doesn’t seem to fit a lot of them. I don’t see him at Liverpool, City or Spurs.


Kane and Toney after England’s comeback win over Slovakia (Eddie Keogh – The FA via Getty Images)

“He would make sense for Chelsea, but they have been consistent with not buying older players. Bayern have Kane, Italy have just changed their rules on tax which means it doesn’t seem realistic for him to go there, and in Spain there’s no money outside Real Madrid. The only places I can think of are the Saudi Pro League or West Ham. Saudi seems like a reasonable destination because they will offer the highest transfer fee and wages, but he might not want to go there.”

Brentford’s struggles last season are a reminder of how difficult it is to survive in the top flight. Maybe it is worth keeping him for one more season, so Igor Thiago can adjust to English football. The club held new contract talks with Toney, who is one of their highest earners, over a year ago, but he made his intentions clear. Could they try to change his mind?

“He must be one of the most underpaid players versus performance in the world because of that long contract he signed when he joined Brentford,” the senior figure says. “If you’re Brentford, the teams coming up (from the Championship this summer: Leicester, Ipswich Town and Southampton) are way better than the teams going down (Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town) — that must be scary. Is there any chance Brentford say, ‘We want to stay up, it is massive to us, and we will make an exception of you and give you a blockbuster contract?’.”

Whatever happens, expect Toney’s future to be a hot topic throughout the summer.

(Top photo: Robbie Jay Barratt – Getty Images)



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