Do Giants have a path to victory over Seahawks without Malik Nabers?

The New York Giants haven’t enjoyed the benefits of an extended break after their 20-15 loss to the Cowboys on Thursday night in Week 4. Wide receiver Malik Nabers (concussion) and running back Devin Singletary (groin) haven’t practiced this week due to injuries suffered against Dallas.

The Nabers injury looms over everything, as the Giants prepare for Sunday’s matchup at Seattle:

What’s the protocol?

Nabers suffered a concussion when his face slammed into the turf as he failed to make a catch along the sideline on fourth down late in the fourth quarter of the loss to Dallas. It’s impossible to know how an individual will respond to a concussion, and the extra time off didn’t benefit Nabers.

Coach Brian Daboll said Wednesday that Nabers was in the “early stages” of the league’s five-phase concussion protocol. Daboll said on Thursday that Nabers was “making progress,” but he still wasn’t on the field during practice.

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That suggests Nabers was in the second phase of the concussion protocol. If he responds well, he could advance to the third stage on Friday, allowing him to do up to 30 minutes of exercise on the field during practice.

The fourth stage of the protocol is non-contact participation in practice. The Giants’ final practice of the week is Friday, so he won’t have an opportunity to participate in a practice before Sunday.

The final stage is getting cleared for contact by team doctors, which would then need to be confirmed by an independent neurological consultant. There’s no prescribed amount of time to clear each stage, but it’s customary for players to progress through one stage per day as long as they don’t suffer any setbacks.

Daboll said he plans to wait as long as possible to decide on Nabers’ status for Sunday. But Nabers is running out of time since he still hadn’t progressed to any field work by Thursday.

Nabers would leave a major void in the offense if he can’t play. He has accounted for 43.8 percent of the Giants’ receiving yards and 38.5 percent of their receptions.

Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton are in line to move up the pecking order if Nabers is sidelined. Jalin Hyatt should see the biggest change in his role. Hyatt has only played 19 percent of the snaps and doesn’t have a catch this season. His presence should encourage more deep throws, which have been lacking from the offense. Isaiah Hodgins could be elevated from the practice squad to provide a more well-rounded option with a track record of production.

Singletary has had a monopoly on backfield touches, accounting for 64.8 percent of the Giants’ rushing yards and 56.6 percent of their carries. Rookie Tyrone Tracy, who has 12 carries for 29 yards, is the next man up. Undrafted rookie Dante “Turbo” Miller will likely be elevated from the practice squad if Singletary is out.

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Count the connections

There are an unusual number of parallels between the Giants and Seahawks, considering they’re in different divisions and reside 3,000 miles apart. This will be the third-straight season the teams have met. The Seahawks have won the previous two meetings — 24-3 in Week 4 at MetLife Stadium last season and 27-13 in Week 8 in Seattle in 2022. The Giants won 17-12 at Seattle in 2020 in a game played with no crowd due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Beyond the annual matchups, there’s a lot of crossover between the players and coaches from the teams. Here’s a closer look at those connections:

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Love-d and lost

Safety Julian Love’s career with the Giants was a success story that ended too soon. A fourth-round pick in 2019, Love gradually developed into a major contributor. He started 16 games in 2022, ranking fourth in the league among safeties with 124 tackles. Love added six tackles for a loss, two interceptions, a sack, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.

The Giants wanted to keep Love, with the team offering a three-year, $22.5 million extension during the 2022 season, according to a league source. Love declined, believing he’d be able to get a contract worth $10 million annually in a safety market that had been booming.

The Giants pulled their offer after Love declined during the 2022 bye week, so it wasn’t on the table when he didn’t find the type of market he expected. He gave the Giants a chance to match the two-year, $12 million offer he got from Seattle, but the team had moved on.

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That hardline stance looks like a mistake in hindsight. Instead of getting Love back for less than they were willing to pay months earlier, the Giants let a young, homegrown leader leave. Love has blossomed in Seattle, setting a career high with four interceptions last season to earn his first Pro Bowl selection.

Passing on the initial Giants’ offer seemed like a mistake at the time when Love took less last offseason. But he recouped those losses and then some by securing a three-year, $33 million extension from the Seahawks this offseason. The shorter deal with the Seahawks gave Love the leverage to push for an extension sooner after his breakout season.

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Checking in on an old friend

The Giants essentially paid $9.4 million for a second-round pick when they shipped defensive tackle Leonard Williams to the Seahawks at last season’s trade deadline. The Giants paid most of Williams’ remaining $10 million salary to extract a 2024 second-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick from Seattle. If the Giants hadn’t eaten that much salary, the trade return would have been much lower.

Seattle’s pick landed at No. 47, which the Giants used to select safety Tyler Nubin, who has played every defensive snap in his first four games. Williams played well in Seattle, but he didn’t prove to be the missing piece. The Seahawks went 4-6 after the trade and failed to make the playoffs.

Williams was in the final year of his contract, so he became a free agent after the season. He could have returned to the Giants, but he re-signed with the Seahawks on a three-year, $64.5 million deal. That brings Williams’ career earnings to a staggering $185 million for a player who has had more than seven sacks in a season only once.

Williams’ value has never been fully represented in the box score. His unique combination of size and strength requires attention from opponents and makes him a force as a pass rusher and run defender.

Dexter Lawrence surely benefited from Williams’ presence during their parts of five seasons together. Lawrence is getting double-teamed at a historic rate without Williams around to attract blockers.

Williams had 11 pressures and 1.5 sacks in the first two games of this season before suffering a ribs injury in Week 3. The iron man missed Monday’s loss to the Lions, but is trending toward playing against his former team.

Cross-examining 2022 draft

It was an open secret that the Giants were going to draft an offensive tackle with one of their two top-10 picks in the 2022 draft. There were three tackles deemed top-10 prospects: Alabama’s Evan Neal, North Carolina State’s Ickey Ekwonu and Mississippi State’s Charles Cross.

With all three tackles available when they were picking at No. 5, the Giants took outside linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Giants were comfortable with two tackle options, so when Ekwonu went No. 6 to the Panthers, the Giants took Neal at No. 7.

Cross had fans within the Giants’ organization, although obviously not enough to surpass Neal on the draft board. Cross went ninth to the Seahawks and looks to be the best of the bunch.

Cross had a rough showing on Monday against Lions star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson (the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft), but otherwise has had a strong start to his third season. The athleticism that defined Cross as a draft prospect has enabled him to be an effective pass protector.

Ekwonu hasn’t lived up to his potential, but he’s been a solid left tackle for the Panthers. He has started every game in his three seasons. Durability has been a strength for Cross, who has only missed three games in his career.

Both players have fared far better than Neal, who struggled through two injury-plagued seasons before losing his starting job. Neal has yet to play a snap this season, missing the first three weeks of training camp due to offseason ankle surgery.

The one that got away?

Geno Smith spent one ill-fated season with the Giants, signed to be Eli Manning’s backup in 2017 after four rocky years with the Jets. Through no fault of his own, Smith got injected into a controversy when coach Ben McAdoo started him over Manning in Week 13.

Smith played fine in a 24-17 loss to the Raiders, but the fallout from the Manning benching resulted in the firings of McAdoo and general manager Jerry Reese. Interim coach Steve Spagnuolo reinserted Manning as the starter for the final four games of the season.

Smith didn’t make any waves during the tumultuous time. He left to be the Chargers backup quarterback in 2018 before landing in Seattle the next year. Smith made three starts as Russell Wilson’s backup in his first three seasons in Seattle before finally getting an opportunity in 2022. With Wilson traded to the Broncos, Smith beat out current Giants backup Drew Lock in a quarterback competition.

After waiting eight years for a second chance as a starter, Smith seized the opportunity. He produced a monster 2022 season, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns while leading the Seahawks to the playoffs with a 9-8 record.

Smith was a free agent after the season, so the Seahawks had to thread the needle of compensating him based on his production without over-committing based on his track record. The Seahawks gave Smith, who was 32 at the time, a three-year, $75 million contract with $27.3 million fully guaranteed. That’s a steal compared to the four-year, $160 million contract with $81 million fully guaranteed the Giants gave Jones at the same time.

Smith took a step back last season, with 3,624 yards and 20 touchdowns as the Seahawks went 9-8 again but missed the playoffs. He’s off to a hot start this season for the 3-1 Seahawks, leading the NFL with 1,182 yards passing.

Another QB connection

Lock, who was sent to Seattle in the Wilson trade, spent the past two seasons as Smith’s backup. Lock landed with the Giants in free agency this offseason on a one-year, $5 million contract.

Seahawks general manager John Schneider raised eyebrows when he told a Seattle radio station in March that he wanted to re-sign Lock, but the Giants “basically sold him on the opportunity to compete to be the starter.” Lock denied that and said he came to New York with the understanding he would be Jones’ backup. After leading the first-team offense while Jones rehabbed his torn ACL in the spring, Lock exclusively worked as the No. 2 quarterback during training camp.

Unable to retain Lock, the Seahawks acquired Sam Howell in a trade with the Commanders. The Seahawks dealt third- and fifth-round picks to Washington for fourth- and sixth-round picks. Howell is a budget-friendly backup with a $1 million cap hit this year and a $1.1 million cap hit next year.

No exit

Giants offensive coordinator Mike Kafka interviewed for the Seahawks head-coaching vacancy this offseason. Kafka impressed enough to get a second interview, but the job went to former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.

The Seahawks then pursued Kafka for their offensive coordinator position, but the Giants declined the interview request for a lateral move. There would have been obvious benefits for Kafka to be the play-caller for a defensive head coach with an offense loaded with talent.

Instead, Kafka was stuck with the Giants despite losing play-calling duties to Daboll. If Kafka had left, Daboll would have had to replace all three coordinators during the offseason. The Giants promoted Kafka to assistant head coach to soften the blow.

Macdonald pivoted to Ryan Grubb, who had been the University of Washington’s OC for two years. The Seahawks rank 10th in the league in scoring.

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Prediction:

Seahawks 27, Giants 13. There are games every weekend in the NFL that teams win when given no chance. This would be one of those instances. A game at Seattle against this explosive offense already posed a stiff test. Subtracting Nabers from the equation makes it challenging to see a path to victory. Maybe the Giants will dig deep and pull out a surprise. But sometimes mismatches play out as expected. That’s what I’m predicting in this one.

(Photo of Malik Nabers: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

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