By Colton Pouncy, Alec Lewis, Matt Schneidman and Kevin Fishbain
Every week, The Athletic’s Austin Mock plugs numbers into an algorithm that calculates each NFL team’s chances of making the playoffs.
The Lions currently sit at 92 percent. The Vikings are at 87 percent. The Packers sit at 70 percent. And the Bears hover around 39 percent.
All four NFC North teams rank in the top 15 in terms of odds. For reference, never has one division placed four teams in the NFL postseason, not even since realignment in 2002. Given the wild state of affairs, we thought it would be fun and informative to gather our beat writers — Colton Pouncy (Lions), Alec Lewis (Vikings), Matt Schneidman (Packers) and Kevin Fishbain (Bears) — for a roundtable.
What do they expect their teams to do before the NFL trade deadline? Who do they think will win the division in the end? Here are their thoughts:
Sum up your team’s seven-week start in one word.
Pouncy: Promising. If you told most Lions fans before the season that their team would get off to a 5-1 start, they’d be more than thrilled. It would tell them this season was going according to plan after last year’s NFC title game run and the additions this offseason made them a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl. That said, this isn’t the same Lions team that began the season. The Lions are already down three defensive starters — Aidan Hutchinson, Marcus Davenport and Derrick Barnes — for the season, and it’s only Week 8. They still have enough talent to win the majority of their games, but that has put a damper on an otherwise terrific start.
Lewis: Intriguing. Before the season, it seemed likely that if an NFC North roundtable was going to exist, most of you would be skipping over my responses. Instead, the Vikings are very much in the thick of things. They beat Schneidman’s squad. They took Pouncy’s party down to the wire. They won’t take on Fishbain’s crew until after Thanksgiving, and by then who knows where things will stand? Intriguing is the word because this start has not been a fluke. The Vikings defense is one of the best in the NFL. The offense is about to get tight end T.J. Hockenson back from a torn ACL. Minnesota is well-coached, and its locker room is well-constructed. The Vikings have also faced the toughest schedule among these four teams, and that feels notable.
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Schneidman: Encouraging. The Packers are 5-2, and nobody is complaining about that. Two of those games, both wins, came without their starting quarterback. They lost to the Eagles by five in Brazil to open the season and to the Vikings by two after trailing by 28. Jordan Love is giving fans heart attacks by alternating between head-scratching interceptions and elite throws — like he did Sunday in a narrow win over the Texans — but the Packers are benefiting from his aggressiveness more than they’re hurting and the mistakes should get cleaned up. Jeff Hafley looks like the right decision at defensive coordinator, especially with regard to takeaways and the pass defense, and the Packers might finally have a kicker in veteran Brandon McManus. They should get to 6-2 against the Jaguars on Sunday before a heavyweight matchup with the Lions at Lambeau Field.
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Fishbain: Whiplash. After the Week 3 loss to the Colts, fans called for firings. There were meetings between offensive players and coordinator Shane Waldron. It seemed just like every other Bears team from the past that had to rely on a staunch defense to carry an anemic offense. Then came a solid win over the Rams and dominant victories over the Panthers and Jaguars in which rookie Caleb Williams looked like the quarterback fans have been hoping for. We’ll learn a lot more over the next two weeks before they head into division play, but this team went from “same old Bears” to “What, we’re good enough to get flexed?” in less than a month.
What is the one concern that could doom your team’s chances for the division?
Pouncy: The way this is going, we could see a new team atop the division every other week. So winning the North won’t be easy regardless of how good the Lions look right now. But I’d say it’s health. Hutchinson was a brutal loss. Without him this past Sunday, Josh Paschal and Isaac Ukwu played the majority of snaps on the edge. They combined for just two pressures and one sack (unblocked), per PFF. Hutchinson had 15 alone in his last full game. If they can avoid another injury like that, they should be in good shape. But you never know in this league.
Lewis: Like Colton said, it’s a major injury to one of the team’s key contributors: receiver Justin Jefferson, running back Aaron Jones, edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, etc. Beyond that, though, it’s cornerbacks. Stephon Gilmore has played admirably this season. Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr. are experienced and more capable than the Vikings’ options have been in past years. Still, defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ unwillingness to play man coverage allows for space, and if the pass rush does not get home, opposing quarterbacks can take advantage. The “ifs” are why this defense has been as good as it’s been, but this division has players and coaches capable of finding chinks in their armor.
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Schneidman: The same thing that’s been a concern since I started covering this team in 2019: the run defense. The Packers rank 17th in defensive rush EPA per snap through seven games, according to TruMedia, after ranking 13th last season. They ranked 31st during head coach Matt LaFleur’s first five seasons in charge with Mike Pettine and Joe Barry as DC despite an improved 2023, so I guess 17th isn’t bad all things considered. The likes of Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon have still had success against Green Bay’s front, though, and I’m not trusting a run defense in this city until it consistently proves me wrong. I would’ve said the kicking game if the Packers had kept undrafted rookie Brayden Narveson, but they pulled the plug after six games.
Fishbain: The question we’re all asking during this three-game winning streak is: How good is the offense, truly, considering the competition? I feel good about Caleb Williams. And we have enough tape on D’Andre Swift to know he’s closer to what we’ve seen in Weeks 4-6 than in Weeks 1-3. But the offensive line would be the looming question mark. As improved as the group looked during the three wins, the Bears still rank 27th in sacks allowed per pass attempt. Those three wins came against defenses ranked in the bottom third in the league in rushing the passer. All we have to do is remember what the Texans did to Williams in Week 2 — or what the Packers did to C.J. Stroud last Sunday. A poor performance up front can ruin a game.
Rashan Gary and the Packers defense sacked Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud four times on Sunday and limited him to 10-for-21 passing for 86 yards. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
If your team decides to buy at the trade deadline, which position(s) are you keeping your eyes on?
Pouncy: The Lions badly need an edge rusher. They generated four sacks on Sunday, but three of them came from linebackers. If they have any more injuries, we might see Alec in a three-point stance before this is over. From what Dan Campbell has said, GM Brad Holmes is working the phones and seeing what’s out there. The way these guys operate, they’re not going to make a move that jeopardizes their future or ability to retain homegrown talent they’d like to extend. And it has to be someone who won’t disrupt the locker room and fits into what they’re all about. But I’d be shocked if they don’t add someone.
Lewis: It depends on what type of store the Vikings want to shop in. Do they want to pay bargain prices, or do they want to splurge? If it’s the former, Minnesota is likely to pursue a guard, a cornerback or maybe even a short-term defensive tackle who can both stop the run and rush the passer. If it’s the latter, maybe the Vikings swing aggressively for a high-end cornerback or defensive tackle worth allocating some of their future cap space to. The Vikings are not loaded with draft capital for 2025, so they’ll have to be smart. But general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has never been afraid to think creatively about acquisitions involving late-round picks and pick-swaps.
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Schneidman: I can’t identify any positions at which the Packers desperately need upgrades worth sacrificing future premium draft capital for, but perhaps they could use depth at edge rusher if they trade Preston Smith, as NFL Network reported could happen. Other than that, they’re set at receiver, tight end, running back, quarterback, offensive line, interior defensive line (after Devonte Wyatt returns from injury), linebacker, safety and cornerback. LaFleur told me recently that this is the most depth a team he’s coached here has ever had.
Fishbain: The trenches. While the offensive line is a concern, the Bears do have depth and a couple of players coming back from injured reserve. It would have to be a surefire starter, someone they see as part of the future, too. They could also look to bolster the defensive line. They traded for Darrell Taylor before the regular season, and he has played well. Would they want to upgrade the No. 3 defensive tackle position? The one weakness on defense has been against the run, but is that personnel-related? I’d expect the Bears to ultimately stand pat while acknowledging that Ryan Poles is never afraid to make a move.
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Which non-division game is most essential for your team to win in the remainder of the schedule?
Pouncy: Conference games are important for seeding, so as tempting as it is to go with an AFC opponent like the Texans or Bills, I’ll go elsewhere with this one. Strange but true: The Lions face only one NFC team that doesn’t reside in the NFC North the rest of the way — the 49ers on Dec. 30. It’ll be a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game back in the building where the Lions let it all slip away. As banged up as the 49ers look right now, I’m not ruling out a resurgence if they get Christian McCaffrey back after the bye. There’s too much talent for that team to crumble and, at the very least, San Francisco could be fighting for a wild-card spot.
Lewis: The next one. How could I not toss a coaching cliche in here? Truthfully, though, I do think this Week 8 Thursday night matchup against the Rams is massive. The Vikings are coming off their first loss of the season. Can they respond in a short week on the road in Los Angeles against a Sean McVay-coached team getting Cooper Kupp back? The Rams sit at 2-4, but they can be better than that record suggests. The Vikings believe in the mettle of their locker room, and this is a chance to show it — and prevent a downturn that evokes memories of past hot starts gone cold.
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Schneidman: The Packers host the 49ers in Week 12, and though they’re just 3-4, they’ll probably be in the thick of the playoff picture come the regular season’s end. The 49ers have knocked the Packers out of the playoffs in three of their four postseason appearances under LaFleur, but Green Bay has won two out of three matchups in the regular season during that span. Not only could a win against the 49ers in Week 12 be important for playoff seeding, but it’d be a temporary weight off LaFleur’s back after another playoff loss to Kyle Shanahan last season and maybe even a push to the outside of the playoff bubble for San Francisco. What better way to ensure you don’t lose to the 49ers in the playoffs than by helping them miss the playoffs entirely?
Fishbain: Considering how tough the division games will be, all four non-NFC North games feel like they’re in that “must-win” category. For example, the Bears can’t afford to lose a home game to the Patriots next month. But looking at the playoff picture, the late-December matchup against Seattle on Thursday night could have the highest stakes. Yes, this weekend’s game in Washington could be the most intriguing if Jayden Daniels plays, but it’s still only Game 7. Come Christmastime, if the Bears are in the wild-card hunt, Seattle might be as well, and they’ll need to defend Soldier Field.
Sitting at 4-2, Caleb Williams and the Bears could well be in the wild-card hunt in the season’s final weeks. (David Banks / Imagn Images)
Which team will win the NFC North?
Pouncy: I’ll stick with the Lions. I have too much confidence in their offense right now, which handled the Flores defense masterfully in ways other teams haven’t on Sunday. This isn’t the same defense of two years ago — or even last year. The secondary is much better with corners who play their preferred style of man coverage and two ball-hawking safeties in Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph (eight interceptions combined). Jack Campbell is starting to look like one of the league’s better linebackers, and Detroit still has strong defensive tackles. A trade for a player who can do even half of what Hutchinson provided for them should help account for his absence. This division will remain dangerous, though. I don’t think any of these teams are going away.
Lewis: The Lions. Maybe it’s how fresh Sunday’s game is, but I have not been able to stop thinking about Detroit’s offensive performance against the Vikings. Jared Goff did not miss. Jahmyr Gibbs runs like Pouncy is controlling him with a joystick. The offensive line withstood the Flores test. I also think Brad Holmes will be willing to take a shot on an edge rusher before the deadline. Broadly, I just want to add that I feel fortunate to get to watch these teams play each other; this division — coaches, players, fans — is no joke.
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Schneidman: I said the Lions before the season and I’m sticking with that pick. I also picked them to lose in the Super Bowl to the Chiefs, which I also still feel confident in. The loss of Hutchinson is tough to overcome, but they already beat the Vikings without him, and a trade deadline acquisition could help compensate for that massive loss. I think the Lions, Packers and Vikings all make the postseason and finish in the NFC North in that order, while the Bears fall off slightly after playing tougher competition. Whoever makes it through the gantlet that is this division will be well prepared for the postseason, regardless of where they finish.
Fishbain: The Lions. I had the Packers in the Super Bowl before the season, and I think we’ve all seen that Jordan Love can get hot and take his team far, but the Lions seem to be the most well-rounded and confident group, especially after that win in Minnesota. They’ve got the coaching staff. Jared Goff is playing at an absurd level behind a very good offensive line. We’ll keep watching to see how the Hutchinson injury affects things, but they’re still the team to beat.
(Top photo of Dan Campbell and Kevin O’Connell: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
