Forget late December — the MLS Cup playoffs are the most wonderful time of the year.
While FIFA president Gianni Infantino was on hand to capitalize on Inter Miami’s Supporters’ Shield triumph last weekend, seasons are ultimately defined by the team that survives the league’s title-deciding playoff bracket.
The first round is a best-of-three series, with the higher seed hosting the first and, if necessary, third games. As is the case in the Leagues Cup, first-round matches go right to penalties after 90 minutes, while subsequent rounds will include 30 minutes of extra time to try to break any deadlock. As Sporting Kansas City proved last season, even the matchups between top seeds and 8th-ranked challengers aren’t going to be easy.
The games are spaced for adequate rest, which makes for better soccer, even if the round (and postseason altogether) plays out at a languid pace. In total, 34 days will pass between the regular season’s end and the start of the postseason’s second round.
With that in mind, here’s a crib sheet for each best-of-three matchup with a crude rank of its watchability. Bear in mind, however, that the MLS postseason always elicits a high standard of entertaining soccer and every series is worth watching. But if you must prioritize, here’s some help.
GO DEEPER
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LAFC has done well to retain its Western supremacy under Steve Cherundolo, winning the conference regular season title on Decision Day last weekend. But it didn’t come easily. LAFC earned five points from six matches in September as it balanced league play with a triumphant U.S. Open Cup run. They won five straight to close the regular season, leading MLS in shots per game (16.0) at an average of 0.11 xG/per shot. While Olivier Giroud has yet to log a regular season goal from his first 608 minutes, he was signed in the summer with an eye on MLS Cup and the 2025 season, more than as an immediate hit.
Vancouver made a mockery of the Portland Timbers in the play-in round, barnstorming their regional by a 5-0 margin.
LAFC won the season series with a 5-1 aggregate across two wins, including a 2-1 victory in the penultimate week in British Columbia.
It all culminates in a rematch of last year, when LAFC outlasted Vancouver in three games.
LAFC will likely keep doing what’s worked over the past few years, keeping a compact shape, trusting Denis Bouanga to operate in transition, winning aerial balls and counting on the big-game mentality that keeps them in contention for every trophy on offer. There are flaws to exploit, but I don’t see them being prevalent until a later round.
Rueter’s prediction: LAFC in two games
Greg Vanney’s LA Galaxy clung to conference supremacy for most of the season, only for the Houston Dynamo to play spoiler with a last-gasp winner on Decision Day. They lost the top seed, which now means any hope of a first trip to MLS Cup in a decade could require overcoming crosstown rival LAFC at their place. That’s a possible problem for two rounds from now — the task at hand is surviving the knockout bracket.
Up first is the Rapids, which saw massive year-to-year improvement under new head coach (and deserving coach of the year finalist) Chris Armas. Colorado’s attack has greatly improved its shot volume (10.7 per 90 minutes in 2023, 12.6 in 2024) and selection (0.105 xG per shot in 2023, 0.137 in 2024), which has helped make up for only marginal improvement defensively. Zack Steffen has woefully underperformed in goal, with the league’s lowest rate of goals prevented (-8.9, the worst of any goalkeeper from any season in the 2020s), which is especially damning against opponents who can score from a variety of approaches. The Galaxy silences opponents using slow-and-steady possession with Riqui Puig at its heart.
One of the biggest X-factors this postseason is Marco Reus. The Borussia Dortmund icon hasn’t featured much since coming to Carson in August, but he has a goal and three assists in his 359 minutes. It’s somewhat reminiscent of Gareth Bale’s brief and brilliant tenure with LAFC two years ago — a few reminders of greatness in the regular season, with an unforgettable star turn when it mattered most. I’m not sure Reus will need to pull that off in the first round, but he’s perfectly equipped to flip a game on its head for 20 to 30 minutes.
Rueter’s prediction: LA Galaxy in two games
Throughout the season, the Eastern Conference hierarchy has largely been defined by Miami, Columbus and Cincinnati. That probably flatters the third seed, which has performed far closer to the conference’s mid-table dwellers than its elite. Cincinnati benefitted from several bona fide worldies from range, masking the league’s fifth-worst shot selection (0.101 xG per attempt). They keep getting results on the back of one of the league’s better defenses, but recent years have proven that it’s impossible to overcome a lack of firepower among your ranks. Considering the chance creation on offer, Brandon Vazquez, now with Monterrey in Liga MX, has been sorely missed.
They’re up against NYCFC, another of the league’s foremost possession enthusiasts, and it’s likely each team will carry the balance of ball control when they’re at home. Head coach Nick Cushing put himself into Arsenal Women’s sights, after being on a hot seat this spring, by getting more out of a greater portion of his squad. Winger Alonso Martínez is scoring like the second coming of Álvaro Saborío, giving a true line leader to a group that’s always whirring with facilitators in midfield and wide areas.
Cincinnati won its March matchup in Ohio, while NYCFC won the home leg, 3-2, three weeks ago. It’s another evenly balanced matchup, but in this case, I think the team with a greater point to prove and a deeper attack will see it through — assuming Cushing isn’t already packing for London in the next two weeks.
Rueter’s prediction: New York City in three games
For a second consecutive postseason, Orlando enters as the East’s recent-form darling. They’ve heated up at the right time, winning six of their last eight. However, their Decision Day defeat at home against Atlanta United does beg some questions about their ability to contain teams that cede possession and thrive on the break. Unfortunately for their sake, that’s a gambit that Charlotte confidently embraces.
In Dean Smith’s first season, Charlotte had the second-fewest goals allowed in MLS. Their relative lack of game-breaking talent at the top of their roster has cost them some close results, like a 2-1 loss in Montréal in mid-September that could’ve flipped seeding for this series on its own. They took 13 points from their last five games, including a draw at Miami that reaffirmed their spoiler potential. Marquee winter signing Liel Abada has underperformed, but the collective often outplays its individual mettle.
Orlando’s strengths can directly be counteracted by Charlotte’s own when it has everyone available. Considering the relatively cold seasons from Orlando forwards Duncan McGuire and Luis Muriel, a narrow advantage goes to the great defense.
Rueter’s prediction: Charlotte FC in three games
Brian Schmetzer missed the list of finalists for coach of the year, but it’s easy to argue that 2024 may have yielded his finest work yet in Seattle. This was a major year of transition for the Sounders, who saw longtime talisman Nicolas Lodeiro depart and knew full well that striker Raul Ruidiaz was on the wane. They hoped Pedro de la Vega could be a more youthful facilitator, but he missed much of the season with leg muscle injuries. And yet, Seattle came close to a top-three finish thanks to a Best XI-caliber season from Albert Rusnak, timely scoring from Jordan Morris and some massive contributions down the wage bill from Paul Rothrock and Jackson Ragen.
Don’t let the conference rank fool you, the Sounders are genuine contenders. They ranked fourth in both time spent leading games and in least time playing from a losing position.
No team allowed fewer goals in MLS than Seattle. Unfortunately for them (and, possibly, for neutrals), Houston was narrowly behind in third, building off of last year’s U.S. Open Cup title to remain among the West’s most consistent sides. Spending nearly half a season without Héctor Herrera forced several players into bigger roles. They largely met the moment, with Artur putting in his finest season since winning MLS Cup with Columbus Crew in 2020. Like last year, however, Houston doesn’t have a true force in the final third — no Dynamo player scored more than 6 goals from the run of play this season.
The Sounders took four points from their clashes this season, including a 1-0 win in September. That might be a popular scoreline again in this series, but I think Seattle will like this matchup ahead of a possible clash with LAFC.
Rueter’s prediction: Seattle Sounders in two games
3. Inter Miami (1) vs Atlanta United (9)
I try my best to talk myself into anticipating the upset, recognizing a juggernaut’s flaws that are reasonably capable of being thwarted. Still, I’m struggling to embrace the kayfabe at this point.
It isn’t just the top end of Miami’s roster (though yes, any team that can unleash Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez in an elimination match is going to have an advantage). The unsung success of Miami’s record-setting season has been the balance that head coach Tata Martino has found with the lesser-heralded members of the squad.
Julian Gressel is virtually neck-and-neck with Messi in chance creation per 90: 1.68 for the United States international, 1.82 for the Argentine. Leo Campana has gone from a must-start to a rotational figure since Suarez arrived, but his 48.6 per cent shooting accuracy suggests he’s still locked in with a lesser workload. Their squad is littered with players who would start on at least a dozen playoff qualifiers, but settle for rotation on a title favorite.
Atlanta took four points from their two matchups in the regular season. Their 3-1 home win over Miami in May bought then head coach Gonzalo Pineda an extra game before he was fired. The blueprint under interim Rob Valentino is to replicate the 2-2 draw from mid-September: just go for it. Let Miami win possession, but be proactive in the field tilt (attacking third) battle. Keep shooting instead of going in a shell. Just remember you’re professional soccer players who are good at your day jobs.
But as with everything you’ll read in any publication this fall, it all comes back to Miami. This team was built to thrive in a knockout competition. The fact they managed to win the Shield with an all-time points highmark shows there’s even greater ambition in the locker room.
Rueter’s prediction: Inter Miami in two games
Columbus head coach Wilfried Nancy has been on an all-time hot streak since he led CF Montréal to their best form of the MLS era in 2022, expertly navigating a club transition upon joining Columbus last year. The midseason sale of midfielder Aidan Morris only mildly slowed the engine room. Although midfielder Darlington Nagbe has shown signs of regression this year, Dylan Chambost and deputy Derrick Jones have looked the part. Cucho Hernández is an MVP front-runner, while last year’s supporting cast largely returns, including playoff heroes Christian Ramirez and Malte Amundsen.
No team made a more radical identity shift than the Red Bulls, abandoning the energy-drink soccer of Jesse Marsch, Armas and Gerhard Struber for a less frenetic model under Sandro Schwarz. They are a far more coherent attacking team that can set up moments rather than being pure opportunists, carrying a considerable xG advantage on average. Missed chances like Dante Vanzeir’s (who led MLS in xG underperformance) are a big part of why they dropped from first in April to seventh in October.
The Crew comfortably dispatched the Red Bulls in March, then withstood a late Decision Day comeback to reclaim a win deep in stoppage time. New York is set up for brighter days to come, but I don’t see them arising in this matchup against an all-time great opponent.
Rueter’s prediction: Columbus Crew in two games
My preseason pick to make MLS Cup, Real Salt Lake has navigated another season of having key players leave midseason and finished top-three in the West. Midfielder Diego Luna put in a season worthy of young player of the year, taking primary custody of creativity after Andrés Gómez was sold to French club Rennes. Luna notched 8 goals and 12 assists. Behind him, Justen Glad anchors a retooled defense.
The issue? Star striker Chicho Arango hasn’t scored since early July, with 26 shots scattered across his last 524 minutes. It’s hard to win in the playoffs when your best players have gone cold.
Minnesota has been one of the best stories in the league, navigating life after former head coach Adrian Heath to return to the playoffs with only slight modifications to his core. Kelvin Yeboah is a presumptive candidate for the 2025 Golden Boot with keen movement and emphatic finishing, while head coach Eric Ramsay has a deep core of attackers who love operating on the break. Their midfield is still easy to overpower, but they’re ahead of schedule on a rebuild and are well-positioned to make this series interesting given the matchup.
That could be especially damning against a team that’s as good in transition as RSL.
These sides tied both games in the regular season. Ultimately, I think RSL has just enough going their way to survive a sturdy test. If home field was flipped, that might not be the case.
Rueter’s prediction: Real Salt Lake in three games
(Top photos: Mark Smith, Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
