The Premier League is back this weekend and, after the interruptions of international breaks in September, October and November, will now run through until the end of March with only a few domestic diversions for the FA Cup.
Sunday will provide our first glimpse of a Ruben Amorim-led Manchester United, while Manchester City will attempt to use the boost of their manager Pep Guardiola agreeing a new contract to turn around an unprecedented run of four straight defeats in all competitions.
Oliver Kay, Nick Miller, Seb Stafford-Bloor, Michael Bailey and Caoimhe O’Neill dissect the main talking points as the season resumes.
Does Guardiola’s decision to stay affect the title race?
Kay: I often feel the whole “dressing-room uncertainty over what happens next season” angle is overstated in football, but there has been a slight sense of drift around City this season. They will hope that, like four years ago, a resolution brings more stability and more focus for Guardiola himself and, by extension, his players. But I would expect an improvement from City even if Guardiola’s contract situation wasn’t resolved. Yes, they miss Rodri enormously, but there are others I would expect to step up after a slow start to the season.
Guardiola is aiming to lead City to a fifth straight Premier League title (Gualter Fatia/Getty Images)
Miller: Almost certainly not. You could make an argument that recruiting a (temporary?) replacement for Rodri might be a little easier with the extra security that Guardiola will be around for a while. Conversely, you also could make an argument that if their current run is the start of something more serious, rather than a relatively minor blip, and some sort of fatigue with Guardiola is to blame, then that fatigue could be entrenched. But in reality, it will probably be of minor importance, at best.
Stafford-Bloor: I can’t really make an argument for why it would. Had his future still been uncertain in February or March then, sure, there would have been a lame-duck element to his management, but he doesn’t seem like a personality who would allow much emotional disengagement.
Bailey: It’s hard to appreciate how hungry you must need to be, as a club, to win a fifth successive title. I’ve not really looked at City this season and felt the issues were down to any uncertainty over Guardiola’s future — rather more about the gaps left once the summer transfer window closed, and now figuring out how to solve the one left by Rodri’s injury. That said, I actually wonder if the fact City look like they have a serious challenge on their hands to win silverware this season has put a little more fire in Guardiola’s belly to stay and fight for longer — more so than had they been the ones five points clear at the top.
O’Neill: I think it does, but not in full favour of City like in the past. Whenever Guardiola has extended his contract, it sends a warning flare searing past the desks and dugouts of the rest of the Premier League. Guardiola just being there has felt like an uphill battle for any team in the position to challenge City, and still does. But we have watched City’s armour be dented in recent weeks and while we are all expecting their performances to get better because they usually always do, I don’t think this extension will be the reason why.
After Amorim’s arrival, what are you expecting from United?
Kay: Cohesion, structure, spirit, energy: all the things that have been missing from United since the start of last season. I felt things were slightly better this season compared to last, but it was nothing like enough to merit more time for Erik ten Hag.
I would expect a significant improvement under Amorim: an immediate upturn, with some nice fixtures in the first few weeks, then a few reality checks, but overall an upward curve. They lack quality in some areas, but even after a slow start, that squad should be challenging for the European places in the spring — and they should at least be capable of performing in a way that inspires optimism rather than the weariness of the past 18 months (and much of the past 11 years).
Amorim will take charge of his first United game this weekend (Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images)
Miller: A sense that they are moving towards something, at the very least — a feeling which disappeared at some point during Ten Hag’s second season. One of the interesting things from an outsider’s perspective, assuming Amorim actually does stick with the signature 3-4-2-1 system despite the squad he has inherited not really being suited to it, is which players he will repurpose to fit into it: Geovany Quenda was a winger/forward but has just got a call-up to the Portugal squad aged 17 on the back of his performances as a wing-back for Lisbon’s Sporting CP this season. There will be a few United players who will wonder what Amorim can do for them.
Stafford-Bloor: Improving data and performance trends, but few tangible rewards. Amorim is a super appointment — as good a coach as United could probably have attracted at the moment — but he has already said he will not be able to play the football in England he did with Sporting. There will need to be adaption, on both sides. Added to which, while the United squad has been underperforming, it would be a stretch to describe it as being full of latent talent. I expect Amorim to grapple with some of its limitations, to force some square pegs into round holes, and to spend the rest of the season bouncing between really encouraging results and hugely discouraging losses.
Bailey: Some signs of a clear identity would be nice; Ten Hag failed miserably at creating that. United have chewed up and spat out some good head coaches since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013, so it’s not even a question over whether Almorim is another one of those. This is about his own development in England, as much as what he figures out at Carrington and Old Trafford for the squad he is inheriting. But I do expect Bruno Fernandes to shine, Rasmus Hojlund to continue improving and United to at least be more fun to watch than they have regularly proved to be over the past two seasons. Amorim will get a lot of support from the stands, and that should provide a decent platform for the rest of the campaign.
O’Neill: Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe… You can see where I was going with that one. Amorim, fresh off Sporting turning over City 4-1 (one of United’s best results in recent years) in the Champions League, will give renewed hope to a de-hope-drated fanbase. But it will take some time before United are able to play with the kind of thirst and fortitude Sporting unleashed upon City a couple of weeks ago. The January transfer window is coming up but Amorim is going to have to cut summer holidays short in 2025, too. He must build a squad in his own image if it’s to begin to compete for important titles again. I get the feeling Fernandes will be one of the early winners of the Amorim era.
GO DEEPER
Manchester United fans, it’s OK to be excited about Ruben Amorim
Chelsea are currently above Arsenal… so are they title contenders?
Kay: I would be surprised. They finally got their act together towards the end of last season and have continued to make encouraging progress under new coach Enzo Maresca, and it has been great to see Moises Caicedo grow in confidence, but I do feel there’s a clear disparity between the matches they win (a lot of goals, a lot of free-flowing football) and those they don’t (a lot of dysfunction, a lack of steel). At the moment, Chelsea look like a fair-weather team, which is probably to be expected when they have such a young side. The hope will be that, over time, they acquire the toughness and know-how to be more than that.
Miller: They’ve been better than expected but there are still flaws: I’m not particularly convinced by their defence, nor Robert Sanchez in goal, and Caceido could do with a reliable, regular partner in midfield. Maresca is still figuring things out and while they’ve been much better than expected under him so far, I can’t see them being better than Liverpool or City, and it’s probably unfair to expect them to be.
Stafford-Bloor: No. Their progress has been startling under Maresca, though, and they have become competent much quicker than expected. Can you trust them yet? Those draws with Nottingham Forest and Manchester United were sloppy and while they played quite well against Arsenal in their most recent match, teams do seem to have to go through some battle-hardening before they are ready for title races and sustained challenges. They are really good, just not exceptional — not yet, at least.
GO DEEPER
How close are Chelsea to playing Marescaball?
Bailey: This question is much more of an issue for Arsenal than Chelsea, because fourth isn’t where Arsenal are supposed to be and their own challenge is a bit of a mess right now, having gone so close in May. They need to repair their situation, and fast. As for Chelsea, they are not and they don’t need to be. I was sceptical when he joined from Leicester City but right now, Maresca looks a really good fit and there should be a degree of excitement over how a talented, young squad will function in a couple of years if this season’s trends continue. Enjoy the ride and the development from here, I say — it could be, and has been, far worse.
O’Neill: I mean, a lot of us have only just accepted Liverpool as title challengers and it still somehow feels like early days. Do you see Chelsea finishing above them? They are nine points behind Arne Slot’s well-oiled team right now. And even for Arsenal’s recent blips and slips, they are a squad who, over the past two seasons, have proven they are built for the long haul. Even for Chelsea’s strides of progress under Maresca, they still occasionally look too fun. They look all smiles in more games than not but there are still those moments when you find yourself laughing at them, not with them.
Which of the ‘outsiders’ do you see as the biggest challengers to the Champions League places?
Kay: Of the three teams currently fifth (Forest), sixth (Brighton & Hove Albion) and seventh (Fulham), I would say Brighton. That’s not to diminish the other two, who have made a really good impression so far, but I do feel Brighton’s start under Fabian Hurzeler has gone under the radar somewhat and, having got through a tough run of fixtures with some impressive results, they have a gentler-looking run of games coming up. And fifth might be good enough for Champions League qualification this season.
Miller: If we’re discounting teams who have got there in previous seasons, like Aston Villa and Newcastle United, then Brighton. They have started brilliantly under Hurzeler but the thing I like about them is they have a number of different sources for goals. Danny Welbeck has obviously started superbly, Joao Pedro has three from three starts and Evan Ferguson is scoring again. I suspect they won’t quite have enough for a top-four finish, but if any of the outsiders are going to do it, they have the best chance.
Stafford-Bloor: Am I allowed to pick Villa? Presenting a current Champions League participant as an outsider for qualification to play in it next season is perhaps a stretch, but they are probably the only team good enough to keep pace with Liverpool, Arsenal and City, who will all surely pull away, and Chelsea, who are probably just a level beneath those three. Villa have depth; that’s their selling point. Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle have critical dependencies that will, or are, already being exposed by injuries, and you would expect this part of the season to be especially punishing for Forest and Fulham. Brighton? Maybe, but Hurzeler has no experience of navigating an English festive programme, so — excellent though his start has been — a drop-off should be expected at some point.
Bailey: Obviously, I hate to kill all hints of romanticism, but the outsiders to be the biggest challengers to the Champions League places is probably still the equivalent of picking who will finish sixth — see Seb opting for Villa as an example! Forest have been superb but head coach Nuno Espirito Santo’s best finish when he was at Wolverhampton Wanderers was only seventh (twice). Brighton’s previous experience may well see them pip Fulham, whose latest step forward under Marco Silva has really impressed me. But right now I expect all the usual suspects to close out any plucky underdogs — unless we’re going to include Newcastle in that?!
O’Neill: Forest, Brighton and Fulham are the outsiders that look most in with a chance after their respective starts. They are clinging closely to those Champions League places but who can stay in touching distance and replicate Villa’s achievement last season or Newcastle’s the season before? Could it not be one of those two sides? You also have Tottenham and Manchester United locked out in the cold. But I’ll go with Brighton, because they look unfazed by their position and opposition. There has been a low-key calmness to them just picking locks each week like they expect to do it. And we aren’t as surprised these days when they do.
Which manager is most under pressure right now?
Kay: Gary O’Neil (Wolves) and Russell Martin (Southampton) might be under more immediate pressure, but they should still have credit in the bank, whereas Julen Lopetegui just hasn’t looked the right fit in his first few months at West Ham United. He has shown elsewhere that he’s a very good coach, but right now West Ham look so much less than the sum of some pretty expensive and attractive-looking parts. Every coach hopes to be granted time, but he was hired with immediate improvement in mind, building on fairly firm foundations. I was going to say it looks like the Manuel Pellegrini appointment from 2018 all over again for them — pushing David Moyes aside to make way for a more exotic name, only to be underwhelmed — but so far it has been much worse. Life under Lopetegui looks joyless and that has to change fast.
Miller: There isn’t a wrong answer among Lopetegui, O’Neil and Martin, while Steve Cooper seems to be permanently under pressure from some elements at Leicester. But I wonder how many (more) people Ange Postecoglou will lose if Tottenham continue their maddening inconsistency: they’ve only won back-to-back games once this season, and over the next month you can just see them beating City and/or Chelsea but losing to Fulham and/or Bournemouth.
West Ham are 14th in the Premier League under new coach Lopetegui (Henry Nicholls/AFP via Getty Images)
Stafford-Bloor: A glance at the fixture list shows that West Ham face Newcastle, Arsenal and Leicester straight out of this international break. If they were to lose the first two and then get turned over in Leicester, would that be something Lopetegui could survive? Maybe. Maybe not. There are some troubling noises around West Ham already. Neither the results nor the performances have been good under Lopetegui, but it was alarming how quickly stories of discontent started leaking out of the club this season. Is it a union that anyone really believes in? It doesn’t look or sound like it.
Bailey: I wouldn’t disagree with Lopetegui either. It doesn’t look like anyone’s happy with the summer choices made there. But I do feel things are uneasy for Oliver Glasner at Crystal Palace too. Their run into Christmas includes a trip to Villa, visiting arch-rivals Brighton, playing Arsenal twice in three days (one of those is a Carabao Cup quarter-final at the Emirates), hosting Manchester City and Newcastle, and going to fellow strugglers Ipswich Town. Those games don’t take place in that order but with one win, seven points and eight goals to this point, any number of poor performances from here could easily force Palace’s hand.
O’Neill: Watching Lopetegui’s time at West Ham so far has been like watching someone try to stay on one of those mechanical bulls but for it to somehow be less fun to watch than that spectacle usually is. Eventually, the bubble will burst and you will be thrown from it or have to jump off in search of a safe landing. And it has long felt like Lopetegui’s hammer time would be up but somehow he keeps clinging on, despite what is happening on the pitch.
Which game are you most looking forward to between now and the end of 2024?
Kay: It has to be Liverpool vs Manchester City on December 1. So far this season, the showdowns between the big teams have been compelling — and this one rarely disappoints. City have never relished their trips to Anfield, where their only win since 2003 came behind closed doors during the pandemic, and they can expect Liverpool (and the home crowd) to be in “Unleash Hell” mode after the way this season has begun. These are still early days in the title race, but it feels essential for City that they interrupt Liverpool’s momentum and rediscover their own.
Miller: Liverpool-City is the correct answer, but for fans of schadenfreude/football as slow-motion trainwreck, may I recommend West Ham vs Wolves on December 9, should they both continue their current ropey form over the coming weeks. It could be a deeply grim, but strangely compelling Monday evening.
Stafford-Bloor: Tottenham vs Liverpool, a few days before Christmas. Does anybody really know what Spurs are yet? They are such a capricious side under Postecoglou, with one result rarely informing the next, that they could either be blown over easily by Liverpool, or otherwise be a significant bump in the road for Slot’s team. Either way — and with Oli getting in early to take Liverpool-City — that does look like the best chance of some spectacle, one way or another.
Bailey: No arguments from me on City going to Anfield and I love Nick’s pick of the Lopetegui derby — if the Spaniard makes it that far. As for my pick, I’ll avoid the churlish suggestion of seeing lots of goals when Arsenal host Ipswich just after Christmas and instead offer the Merseyside derby on December 7: Slot’s first taste of the fixture on its last dance at Goodison Park (barring a meeting in this season’s FA Cup). That is going to be some atmosphere, at least until Liverpool score…
O’Neill: Liverpool against City, of course. And there’s the aperitif of Manchester United vs Everton earlier the same day. That could be fun.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
