Breaking down the Jets a quarter of the way into 2024-25: What I think and what I know

noviembre 25, 2024

The second chapter of Winnipeg’s season is going to be a little more turbulent than the first.

The six-game, 10-day road trip the Jets are on now was always going to be a challenge, but Dylan Samberg’s broken foot adds another layer of complication. It was unlikely Ville Heinola would be capable of top-four minutes in his first full NHL season even if he’d been healthy and gaining experience this whole time. It seems wishful to think Heinola is capable of filling the void Samberg leaves behind after two months of absence and two games of AHL action. The same applies to Logan Stanley, who is travelling with the team but hasn’t played since Nov. 9 due to a “mid-body” injury.

Fine, then. A little bit of adversity can be good for a team that’s won as many games as the Jets have early in the season.

What should we expect? How much of Winnipeg’s start is for real, and what’s realistic to ask of the Jets as their season faces its first major test? To answer those questions, I thought it was time to take a different approach.

Here’s what I think — and what I know — about the Jets a quarter of the way into 2024-25.

What I think: Despite their record, the Jets probably aren’t one of the 6 best teams in NHL history

Winnipeg is one of only six teams in NHL history to start a season with 17 wins in its first 20 games. Yes, they lost to Nashville in Game 21, but the Jets’ accomplishment deserves to be celebrated: Only five teams have ever started a season this well. Not “in the salary-cap era.” Not “post-expansion.” Ever.

Most of those teams went on to remarkable accomplishments. The 2022-23 Boston Bruins set a record for most points in an NHL season (although they lost to Florida in the first round of the playoffs). The 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks won their second Stanley Cup in four seasons and would go on to win their third Cup just two seasons later. The 2005-06 Ottawa Senators only went as far as the second round, which is certainly disappointing, but if you’re willing to go back nearly 100 years — because that’s what it takes to match an accomplishment so rare — the 1925-26 Senators went to the Cup Final, as did the 1929-30 Bruins.

And that’s the whole list.

The problem with comparing Winnipeg to teams throughout history is that the NHL has changed its shape, size and rules in striking ways over the last century. Those 1926 Senators played before the league allowed forward passes, for example, while the 1930 Bruins played before the league had sorted out its definition of offside. Whatever, you might say. Winning 17 out of 20 games is incredible no matter what the rules are at a moment in history. Sure, I might retort. But the NHL used to end tie games with actual ties, making any wins-based record easier to achieve since 2005-06 than before the shootout reigned supreme.

And then you’d talk about the salary cap, parity and Winnipeg’s overtime wins — they didn’t even need a shootout, you might say — and we could go back and forth. I just don’t think the best 20-game start to a season defines greatness. If the 1987-88 Edmonton Oilers or 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens didn’t do it, then it’s probably more an exciting piece of trivia than the definition of all-time excellence.

What I hope, dear reader, is that you’ve arrived at this point of my argument thinking, “Do you know how ridiculous it is that you’re splitting hairs while comparing these league-leading Jets to the greatest dynasties in NHL history?” I do know that. My hope throughout all of this is that we can all appreciate a remarkable run without assuming it means more than I think it means. Nobody talks about the 2006 Senators anymore, but the 2025 Jets still have the opportunity to be a team you’ll never forget.

The Jets celebrate a victory over the Florida Panthers. (James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)

What I know: The Jets are legitimately a very good hockey team

I think the energy people spend tripping over themselves to define exactly what Winnipeg’s start means comes from people’s need to establish expectations. The Jets have accomplished X early this season, so we can likely get ourselves ready for Y down the stretch or in the playoffs.

The problem with that approach is hockey is beautiful chaos. It balances moments of spectacular speed and skill with brutal physicality. Players grind and battle for large portions of the game, fighting for the few feet of space that allow skill to take over — and, even then, enough goals go in off of shin pads, through traffic, and as a direct result of the chaos that skill is often outshone by determination and by luck. Imagine treating force of will and sheer chance as equals in any other sport. It’s madness, but in hockey, we see some games won because teams are better, others because they worked harder and others still because the right player hit the wrong side of the post.

A hockey season’s story gets written in real time but can only be understood afterward. If the Jets demonstrate resilience in the second half, avoiding some of the problems that have plagued them in recent seasons, and put together a playoff performance worthy of celebration, we will look back at this beginning as if it was always foundational to that success. If they falter, they were always an autumn darling at best.

Revisionist history is unfair but unavoidable in sports.

In an effort to avoid that, here is what I know about the Jets: They have perhaps the best goaltender on the planet. Their power play (33.9 percent) is operating at greater efficiency than the best full-season power play of all time (Edmonton, 2022-23, 32.4 percent).

A quick numbers paragraph: At five-on-five, they take the ninth-most shots and give up the 11th-most shots, balancing out to a slightly above average 50.9 percent. I’m not terribly concerned that they’ve turned that into a 46-34 lead in five-on-five goals. Connor Hellebuyck and Eric Comrie have provided some of the best goaltending in the league, yes, but their combined .931 at five-on-five isn’t any better than what Winnipeg has gotten for the past three years. Put another way, I don’t think it’s fair to expect Hellebuyck to regress toward league average; I expect Hellebuyck’s numbers to regress toward Hellebuyck’s average — which, as it turns out, is excellent.

What I think: You miss out on a lot of enjoyment if you define a season only by playoff success

The Stanley Cup trumps all else, and I say this as a mathematically inclined person who understands that a playoff series is so fast and such a small sample size that puck luck plays an enormous role. The biggest glory of NHL hockey comes from the Cup. Legacies are defined by whether or not players have lifted the Cup. That reality isn’t changing.

But you have to be able to enjoy the moments along the way — and Winnipeg has provided a ton of them.

What I think: Mark Scheifele is nursing an injury

Gabriel Vilardi has been taking an awful lot of faceoffs lately: five against Florida on Tuesday, 16 against Pittsburgh on Friday, 14 against Nashville on Saturday. Scheifele, who is still averaging 16 faceoffs per night, took only two each against the Penguins and Predators.

It seems reasonable to wonder if Scheifele is battling something right now, especially after Scott Arniel played coy in response to Mike McIntyre’s questions on the subject in Pittsburgh. “Gabe’s really good at faceoffs,” was how Arniel explained it in Pittsburgh, after a pause. He was right — Vilardi won 12 of 16 faceoffs against the Penguins and then eight of 14 in Nashville — but this is a curious development. Vilardi took 59 faceoffs last season.

To be clear: This is speculation. Scheifele scored a hat trick against Florida on Tuesday and his ice time hasn’t taken a notable dip. I just think it’s a situation to watch, given Scheifele’s importance to the Jets and his potential to play for Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off in February.

What I know: The top line has delivered results, vindicating Arniel’s belief in them

Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Vilardi were outscored at five-on-five last season and badly outshot, leading to legitimate questions about how they stacked up to other top lines in the NHL. When they were outscored 9-5 and outshot 79-58 through the first 10 games of this season, it seemed as though Winnipeg’s top line was headed for a humbling five-on-five scoreline.

Arniel stuck by his stars and the results have been excellent. The trio has won the flow-of-play battle more often than not, outshooting opponents 74-67 and beating them 9-4 in real goals since the 10-game mark. They’ve gotten the puck out of their own zone more effectively and shown better execution at their blue line. Defensive effort has seldom been in question — even in tough outings like Winnipeg’s 5-0 loss in Florida.

The Jets don’t need Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi to be threats for the Selke Trophy. They do need them to win their minutes. They’re doing that now while continuing to score on the power play, which vindicates Arniel’s confidence in them. Meanwhile, the Jets’ second and third lines are dominating on the scoresheet, with Adam Lowry’s and Vladislav Namestnikov’s lines combining for a 24-8 lead in goals.

What I think: Arniel did well to assert himself in small doses early

In some ways, Winnipeg’s top-line struggles gave Arniel the perfect opportunity to assert himself as head coach. He values his top line, believing in them to win their minutes on a consistent basis against the game’s top players. I have no doubt Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi are Plan A and I see the logic in it, given the consistency of Winnipeg’s other lines.

But it’s not always perfect. Sometimes, there are stretches of poor puck management. Arniel hasn’t gone as far as to start a game with reorganized lines but hasn’t been afraid to mix things up mid-game when things aren’t working. I think there’s a balance to walk between demanding accountability from a team’s top players and making sure those top players have bought in on the big picture. A gentle “that wasn’t good enough, here’s a new look” at key moments — while also going back to the big guns and working alongside them in meetings, as Arniel has done — has been a solid approach.

Jets coach Scott Arniel addresses the media after a win. (James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)

What I think: The power play is good, by design

We’ve been through this already. The Jets’ power play has shown an ability to attack from all areas of the ice this season. They don’t reset to the same guy in the same spot every time; instead, players have options whether they’re at the top of the zone, below the goal line or on either flank. Winnipeg’s power-play puck retrievals have also been furiously effective this season. The speed at which the Jets attack loose pucks and get those pucks back onto attackers’ sticks has been a treat to watch.

What I know: Power-play production is volatile and it’s a problem to rely on it

The Jets are scoring on roughly one out of every four shots they take on the power play right now. Even the best power play in league history managed “only” a 19.7 percent shooting percentage over a full season. The Jets are cruising near 24 percent right now and let’s be real — they’re good, but cold streaks can happen at a moment’s notice.

In one example Jets fans won’t hate too much, last year’s Toronto Maple Leafs went from the seventh-best regular-season power play to a horrible 4.8 percent efficiency against Boston in the playoffs. Special teams help win series, but Stanley Cup champions need to be great five-on-five teams, too.

What I think: The Jets have enough ways to win to insulate against cold snaps

There are going to be tough stretches this season. Winnipeg’s current road trip was already going to be a challenge before Samberg broke his foot. The Jets will need to be able to absorb the tough times and stay in the fight.

Their goaltending and power play are as good as it gets in the NHL. They’re also a strong five-on-five team, although not the league’s best. This variety of ways to win should help insulate the Jets when their power play goes cold or the bounces just aren’t going their way.

What I know: Five-on-five is still the most important part of the game

The Panthers scored 45 five-on-five goals en route to their Stanley Cup last season, taking 1,130 minutes to do so. They added 15 on the power play in 140 minutes with the man advantage. Both goals they scored in their decisive Game 7 victory came at even strength, as did 17 out of 18 goals they scored in the Stanley Cup Final.

This is an extremely anecdotal way of making a point that most readers will probably already understand. Still, it seems worth noting Winnipeg’s torrid start does leave room for improvement. NHL Edge data shows Winnipeg isn’t in the top half of teams in terms of offensive zone time at even strength. The Jets are also spending more time in their own zone this year than last.