It’s only fitting that the final full week of the college football regular season coincides with Thanksgiving. The Week 14 slate is stuffed with significant and intriguing matchups between the buffet of rivalry games across the country, along with the plateful of conference races still to be decided.
There are three key matchups involving teams found in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, with the one between No. 3 Texas and No. 20 Texas A&M being the biggest. The winner of this reignited Lone Star State rivalry advances to next weekend’s SEC Championship Game to face No. 7 Georgia.
There are also championship game bids still up for grabs in the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and among the Group of 5 ranks. Ohio State can take care of two birds with one stone against Michigan. A win for the No. 2 Buckeyes ends a three-game losing streak to their archrivals and also clinches a rematch with No. 1 Oregon for the Big Ten title.
No. 6 Miami can book its spot in the ACC Championship Game (against No. 9 SMU) if the Hurricanes win at Syracuse.
And then there’s the free-for-all that is the Big 12. Four teams — No. 16 Arizona State, No. 18 Iowa State, No. 19 BYU and No. 25 Colorado — are tied atop the conference standings, and the Cyclones will play No. 24 Kansas State. At a minimum, it should make for a fantastic finish; tiebreakers will likely determine who plays next weekend for the Big 12 title.
Even if a team isn’t in the hunt for a conference championship game berth, there’s still plenty to play for, such as the in-state rivalry and playoff resume-boosting game between No. 12 Clemson and No. 15 South Carolina. And don’t forget about No. 5 Notre Dame at USC. The Fighting Irish are well positioned to make the Playoff but can ill afford a loss to a Trojans team that’s just a game above .500.
—Mark Ross
All games listed are on Saturday. Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the College Football Playoff Rankings. All odds are from BetMGM.
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Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State
Noon on FOX
No. 2 Ohio State looked every bit like the national title favorite the odds say they are against Indiana, overwhelming the Hoosiers in every phase en route to a blowout. But to secure a rematch with undefeated Oregon, the Buckeyes must beat “that team up north” for the first time since 2019. OSU is a massive favorite at home, but rivalry games with this bloodline rarely go as planned.
Michigan is woefully undergunned but still ranks 23rd in total defense and is coming off its most impressive showing of the year against Northwestern — a 50-6 romp. That same defense smothered Indiana previously, holding them to 20 points, and has been especially stout against the run.
But Ohio State has one of the most complete attacks in the sport, and even if the Wolverines manage to slow Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, the Buckeyes can pick them apart through the air. Michigan is allowing more than 222 passing yards per game, and with top cornerback Will Johnson having missed four straight contests, the secondary is extremely vulnerable to all-world wideouts Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka.
The tandem has combined for 18 touchdowns and just shy of 1,600 yards, and no defense has managed to slow down both in a single game.
But even if they muster a heroic defensive effort, the Wolverines still have a scoring problem. Michigan’s offense is abysmal, ranking 128th out of 133 teams. Quarterback Davis Warren had a good showing against NU but still has more picks than touchdowns and has mustered barely more than 1,000 yards in seven starts. Even if Warren plays well, Michigan is facing arguably the country’s best defense. The Buckeyes allow just 241 yards per game and only 90 on the ground. No team has scored more than 17 points against them since Week 7, and opponents are averaging 4.4 second-half points in that stretch.
This game should be out of hand fairly early, but the rivalry factor could keep OSU’s foot on the gas long enough to cover the wide margin.
—J.J. Bailey
Picks against the spread
No. 8 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
Noon on ABC
There’s usually not much juice in the Tennessee–Vanderbilt rivalry, but Diego Pavia has made the Commodores interesting and bowl-eligible this season. Even with one of the better Vanderbilt teams in recent years and this game taking place in Nashville, the Volunteers are still favored by double digits.
Tennessee won’t be going to the SEC title game, and maybe that’s to the Vols’ benefit. A win against Vanderbilt would almost certainly send Tennessee to the CFP. The Commodores would love nothing more than to be the team to ruin that.
Pavia has had some impressive performances this season, but Tennessee’s defense is fourth in the country in points allowed per game (13.1) and sixth in yards allowed per game (284). Vanderbilt has also lost three of four while averaging just 16.25 points in that stretch. Pavia gained stardom from that 40-35 Alabama win, but Vanderbilt’s defense has been the better unit of late. The Commodores are allowing 18.8 points per contest in the six games since that shootout against the Crimson Tide.
This one might not be a high-scoring spectacle, but there’s plenty on the line for both teams. The Vols have won five straight in this series, and none have been closer than 18 points.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
No. 15 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson
Noon on ESPN
It didn’t seem likely a week or two ago, but South Carolina at Clemson is suddenly a big game in the CFP race. If there are no upsets this week, neither team is likely to get in, but the winner of this game is waiting in the wings in case things get weird. The Tigers are a small favorite in this game.
Clemson is 9-2 and will have eyes on Miami’s game at Syracuse later for a possible berth in the ACC title game. South Carolina is a trendy three-loss team that has won five in a row, and adding Clemson to the win list would give the Gamecocks a decent resume if someone slips up.
The Gamecocks have a nasty pass rush that has 39 sacks (third in the country). Clemson’s offense is sixth in the country in yards per game (469.9). Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik has 29 touchdown passes and four interceptions this season.
The thing with Clemson is the Tigers don’t have any quality wins. Clemson has one win against a team that is currently bowl-eligible: 7-4 Pitt in a game that went down to the final play. Clemson played one team with a winning record in the ACC: the Louisville Cardinals, who beat the Tigers 33-21 in Clemson.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
No. 5 Notre Dame at USC
3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
Notre Dame and USC continue one of college football’s most storied rivalries on Saturday, and the stakes are absolutely massive for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame enters the game as more than a touchdown favorite on the road.
As long as Notre Dame takes care of its business and wins, it should secure a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff and could probably be as high as a No. 6 or 7 seed. A loss, which would be its second of the season, along with that staggering Northern Illinois defeat earlier in the year, would make the Irish sweat out the next two weeks.
While Notre Dame has not played the toughest schedule in the country, it has done its part by completely blowing out almost every team it has played. During its current nine-game winning streak, Notre Dame has won seven of those games by at least 20 points and an eighth game by 18 points. That includes massive wins over then-ranked Navy and Army.
Quarterback Riley Leonard is also starting to hit his stride a bit and play better football. After throwing just six touchdown passes in his first seven games, he has eight touchdown passes (to just one interception) over the past four games.
USC, meanwhile, has struggled in its first season of Big Ten football but has at least managed to win back-to-back games to get itself bowl eligible. Also, do not be fooled too much by the pedestrian 6-5 record. All five of those losses have been by a single possession, including a three-point overtime loss to No. 4 Penn State. USC has the talent to make this game a fight, and you can never underestimate the rivalry factor or the potential for playing the role of spoiler.
—Adam Gretz
Picks against the spread
Auburn at No. 13 Alabama
3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Neither Auburn nor Alabama is playing for a spot in the SEC Championship Game, but this year’s edition of the Iron Bowl still carries plenty of significance. The Tigers need a win to become bowl eligible, while the heavily favored Crimson Tide hope to keep their College Football Playoff chances alive and avoid their first four-loss season in nearly 20 years.
Auburn (5-6, 2-5 SEC) kept its postseason hopes alive with a thrilling 43-41 four-overtime upset of Texas A&M last Saturday. Quarterback Payton Thorne (301 yards, two touchdowns) and running back Jarquez Hunter (130 yards, three touchdowns) did most of the damage as Auburn nearly doubled its season high for points in a conference game.
Now the Tigers look to keep their offensive momentum against an Alabama (8-3, 4-3) defense that just got run over. The Crimson Tide surrendered 257 rushing yards in last week’s 24-3 loss at Oklahoma. That’s the most since Auburn piled up 318 on the ground in their Iron Bowl victory in 2022.
Hunter is second in the SEC in rushing, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He should get plenty of opportunities against an Alabama defense that’s giving up 160 yards on the ground per game to conference foes.
The Crimson Tide’s offense also struggled last week, producing season lows in points, total yards (264) and rushing yards (70). As quarterback Jalen Milroe goes, so does Bama. Six of his nine interceptions this season have come in the team’s three losses, and he has also been a non-factor in the running game, with a total of 28 rushing yards in those games.
Alabama has won four Iron Bowls in a row and eight of the last 10. The Crimson Tide also haven’t lost to the Tigers in Tuscaloosa since 2010.
—Mark Ross
Picks against the spread
No. 6 Miami at Syracuse
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
For all the regional rivalry games, Miami traveling from South Florida to upstate New York is not like the others. A lack of meaningful bragging rights doesn’t mean the Hurricanes don’t have plenty on the line as they head to Syracuse favored by double-digits.
Miami hasn’t clinched a berth in the ACC title game yet, and finishing with two losses in the ACC would likely remove the Hurricanes from the 12-team field. Clemson would take on SMU in Charlotte if Syracuse pulls off this shocking upset.
What would it take for that upset to happen? Kyle McCord would have to go off. The Syracuse quarterback leads the nation in passing yards (3,946). You know who’s No. 2? Miami’s Cam Ward.
This has the makings of a shootout, especially with Miami’s defense being far from a stout unit. The Hurricanes have allowed more than 30 four times this season. There’s nothing to say Syracuse will be able to stop or even limit Ward, but this one could get wild.
These old Big East foes met every year from 1992 to 2003 but have met just once (in 2017) since Syracuse followed Miami to the ACC in 2013. Miami has won the last six meetings and 12 of the last 14.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
Washington at No. 1 Oregon
7:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Washington at Oregon has a lot of the same elements as Michigan at Ohio State. Oregon has been the more successful program for much of the last 20 years but has lost three in a row to Washington and saw the Huskies make the national title game last year. This year, though, Oregon is at the top of the rankings while Washington is floundering under a first-year coach. The Ducks are favored by nearly three touchdowns.
Oregon is the last remaining undefeated team in the FBS, while the Huskies are a middling 6-5 and 4-4 in the Big Ten. The only way this one gets interesting is if the Ducks sleepwalk through a game that ultimately doesn’t mean a lot to Oregon. The Ducks will likely go to the College Football Playoff even with a loss in this game and another in the Big Ten title game next week.
Washington’s path to an upset, or at least a cover, is likely through its defense, which is 19th in the country in yards allowed per game (312.7). Quarterback Will Rogers isn’t showing signs of leading Washington’s offense to a shootout victory in Eugene. Rogers has just one game with over 250 passing yards in his last five. He has two touchdowns and six interceptions in that stretch.
Meanwhile, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has already surpassed 3,000 passing yards, and Jordan James has already crossed 1,000 rushing yards for the season. Washington has won five of the last eight in the series, and six of the last nine have been decided by less than seven points, but there’s not much on paper to show that this year’s game should be similar.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
No. 3 Texas at No. 20 Texas A&M
7:30 p.m. ET on ABC
No. 20 Texas A&M better not wallow too long because the Lonestar Rivalry is coming to College Station, and it’s turned up to 11. The Aggies, having just dropped an overtime heartbreaker to Auburn, host the favored Texas Longhorns with an SEC title game berth on the line. The spread opened closer to a touchdown but has narrowed.
A&M is one of the few teams currently outside the playoff field with complete control of its playoff path. The Aggies must beat No. 3 Texas and No. 7 Georgia back-to-back. If the Aggies want in, there’s no other way but through.
The Aggies run defense is good enough to slow Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, and given the Longhorn backfield has fumbled eight times as a group, the defense has a chance to flip the field quickly for their offense.
Former Heisman frontrunner Quinn Ewers has been effective under center for the Longhorns but has started slow multiple games this season and struggles when under pressure. More than 21 percent of pressures against Ewers have turned into sacks, and his completion percentage drops 20 points when under duress. His passer rating drops nearly 40 points. The Aggies’ pass rush may not be as consistent as some elite units, but it is disruptive. The Aggies have pressured opposing quarterbacks 194 times (more than Texas or Ohio State), and edge rushers Shemar Stewart and Nic Scourton have been particularly effective, generating 6.5 sacks as a pair. If they can make Ewers uncomfortable, the Longhorns offense becomes manageable.
The Texas defense, on the other hand, doesn’t have a weakness. UT has allowed 16.2 points per game to conference opponents, and only Georgia and Vanderbilt managed more than 20. It pressures quarterbacks more than 35 percent of the time and allows 3.1 yards per carry (12th). A&M is far more effective on the ground (17th nationally) than through the air (86th), but without star running back Le’Veon Moss, it will be up to Amari Daniels to face down the fearsome Longhorn front.
—J.J. Bailey
Picks against the spread
No. 24 Kansas State at No. 18 Iowa State
7:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Kansas State-Iowa State doesn’t come to mind when thinking of classic college football rivalries, but it does have one of the best rivalry names: Farmageddon. This year’s version features a tight spread, with Iowa State favored.
The Cyclones are in the thick of the Big 12 race, but so is most of the conference. The league announced that nine teams are still technically alive to make the conference title game. So much about the state of college football in 2024 can be said with the following sentence: The Big 12 has 16 teams, and nine of them can make the conference title game with one week left in the regular season.
Iowa State is one of four teams, along with BYU, Colorado and Arizona State, tied at 6-2 in the Big 12. None of those four teams completely control their destiny, although Iowa State and Arizona State get in with wins in most scenarios. Colorado is a big home favorite against Oklahoma State on Friday, Arizona State is a two-score favorite at Arizona, and BYU is favored by roughly two touchdowns against Houston.
If you’re looking for an upset at the top of the Big 12, Ames is the most likely place. Kansas State has a top-20 rushing offense with a dual-threat quarterback in Avery Johnson, and it’s supposed to be well below freezing in Iowa this weekend. This one could live up to its nickname.
—Dan Santaromita
Picks against the spread
Wild card picks
Picking only the biggest games is not the smartest way to bet, so each picker is adding another bet with everything from every game on the table. We are tracking the records in these picks as well as counting them in the overall picks standings.
Austin Mock: Penn State -24 vs. Maryland
Chris Vannini: Indiana -28 vs. Purdue
Dan Santaromita: Oklahoma/LSU over 46.5
David Ubben: Penn State -24 vs. Maryland
Picks records
| Writer | Record | Wild card picks | Last week |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Chris Vannini |
56-41 |
9-4 |
4-4 |
|
Austin Mock |
46-51 |
6-7 |
3-5 |
|
Dan Santaromita |
45-52 |
3-10 |
4-4 |
|
David Ubben |
43-54 |
7-6 |
4-4 |
(Photo of Marcel Reed: Michael Chang / Getty Images)
