Navigating the Carolina Hurricanes’ 2024 free agency would have been a tall ask for the most experienced general manager, let alone Eric Tulsky, who was promoted just weeks earlier.
Deadline addition Jake Guentzel headlined the list of unrestricted free agents. Then there was Carolina’s entire second pair of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce, along with depth forward Stefan Noesen.
Tulsky and the Hurricanes traded Guentzel’s rights and let their other key free agents walk. The team wasn’t splashy with their replacements. They signed Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere to replenish the blue line and added Jack Roslovic and William Carrier up front. The team may have shed $13 million in salary in the process, but the roster also dropped in value by a minus-21 Net Rating.
But a quarter way into the season, those subtractions aren’t the story. The Hurricanes are proving to be one of the strongest teams in the league and should be a playoff lock.
While some dramatic and concerning trends are developing around the league on Thanksgiving, there is also a lot to highlight. The Canes are first up on the hype-o-meter’s™️ radar.
The Hurricanes’ system keeps thriving
Hype-o-meter: 9/10
Tulsky and the Hurricanes’ front office decided not to seek out a Guentzel replacement in free agency. Instead, the team held onto Martin Necas, whose name was swirling through trade rumors. The decision to trust Necas after a down year and let him cook in Carolina has been a game-changer. He is leading the entire league in scoring with 35 points heading into Wednesday night. That’s the oomph this team needed upfront.
Not every team would have been able to withstand losing their entire second pair, either. As much as the Hurricanes have developed a reputation for maximizing defensemen within their system, Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce have always been the staples on the blue line to help facilitate that. Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield, last year’s third pair, were promoted into expanded roles and have thrived so far, with a 60 percent expected goal rate and a 22-8 scoring edge in their minutes.
With a top four that can be leaned on against top competition, the coaches can shelter their third pair. Walker and Gostisbehere help drive play from the back end with 63 percent of the expected goal share. If the team started shooting more than 5.7 percent in their minutes, the goal scoring would probably reflect their efforts a lot better. Even Roslovic, who is a bit of a one-dimensional scorer, has carved out a role for himself with the Hurricanes.
It’s all a testament to Carolina’s identity and structure, which remains a major strength year after year. The Hurricanes are one of the best two-way teams in the league, which is helping them overcome some deficits in goal — Monday night’s comeback win over the Stars was a prime example of that. Management bet on that, and it’s clearly paying off.
Anthony Cirelli’s shutdown game
Hype-o-meter: 8/10
On Monday night, Anthony Cirelli was served a heavy diet of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Most opponents struggle to contain that dynamic duo, but Cirelli helped shut them down. In 13:37 head-to-head five-on-five minutes against MacKinnon, the Lightning dominated play.
Tampa Bay held Colorado to just five shot attempts in that time, worth an expected goal value of 0.21. The Lightning, on the other hand, put up 21 attempts worth 1.36 expected goals and outscored the Avalanche 2-0.
It’s just a small glimpse into a fantastic season for Cirelli so far, which is made all the more impressive by his workload. The Lightning have had one of the most difficult schedules in the first quarter of the season, and Cirelli has had one of the toughest workloads in the league in terms of offensive competition. Still, Cirelli and the Lightning are shutting down some of the league’s best in that time, only giving up 1.88 expected goals against per 60 minutes of play — 0.51 per 60 less than his teammates.
Unlike the last couple of seasons, Cirelli has more support around him to elevate his two-way game. He tends to share the ice with Ryan McDonagh, whose shutdown presence has helped revitalize Tampa Bay’s top four. Just like McDonagh’s helping ease the workload for Victor Hedman, Cirelli is for the Nikita Kucherov line.
Brandon Hagel has been the perfect fit on Cirelli’s wing; the two aren’t just neutralizing their opponents’ offense, they’re forcing them to play defense as well. The duo has earned a 67.6 percent expected goal rate in their minutes so far and is making an impact on the scoresheet. With 22 points in 20 games, Cirelli is scoring at a career-high pace of 3.40 points per 60.
While scoring shouldn’t drive the Selke conversation, Hagel’s production and play-driving could finally help him get recognition for his elite defense.
GO DEEPER
NHL awards watch: Kirill Kaprizov is the early MVP front-runner
Jake DeBrusk-Elias Pettersson-Kiefer Sherwood
Hype-o-meter: 8/10
Unfortunately for the Canucks, a lot of the talk around Elias Pettersson picked up where it left off last postseason. Despite making moves to solidify the winger depth around him — like swapping Ilya Mikheyev out for free agent Jake DeBrusk — the franchise center underwhelmed in the early goings of the season.
But with a new-look top line, Pettersson is finally back on track and performing like the difference-maker this team needs. The switch came against the Blackhawks earlier this month when Kiefer Sherwood got the boost alongside Pettersson and DeBrusk in place of Conor Garland.
Sherwood was one of the bright spots in Vancouver to open the season. He has helped the Canucks gain the zone with his entries, is super physical, and makes life hard for opponents on the forecheck. And he chipped some much-needed depth scoring in a bottom-six capacity and added energy to the lineup. Now, he’s proving he can keep up and complement the team’s best on the top line with his passing and scoring chance creation, along with his physical edge.
This line made an instant impact against the Blackhawks and has only built on it. And the timing couldn’t have been better for the Canucks, who were already down Brock Boeser when the trio was put together and then lost J.T. Miller two games later.
This trio has only been together for 56 minutes of five-on-five play, and small samples can inflate results. But that doesn’t take away from how impressive they have been together over this last stretch of play. With DeBrusk-Pettersson-Sherwood on the ice, the Canucks are thriving with a 64.8 percent expected goal rate which is one of the best marks among any line combination with at least 50 minutes of play under their belt. And most importantly, considering how short-handed the team has been, the results back that up. Their offensive zone control is turning into goals, with a 6-1 edge in scoring in their minutes.
Surprising goalie standouts
Hype-o-meter: 7.5/10
Connor Hellebuyck, Juuse Saros and Igor Shesterkin are expected to sit atop the goalie charts. The three are among the elite bona fide starters left in the league. But they aren’t the only goaltenders excelling.
Heading into Wednesday night’s matchups, Lukas Dostal sat at the top of the league in goals saved above expected at 16.8 — just a shade above Hellebuyck. Despite facing one of the most challenging workloads in the league, Dostal has been a game-breaker for the Ducks.
Joey Daccord is showing that last season wasn’t a fluke, with nine quality starts in 15 appearances and the third-best goals saved above expected in the league ahead of Wednesday night. He has stepped up in a big way in Seattle and has earned the starting net. The same is true in Utah with Karel Vejmelka. After a breakout in 2022-23 in Arizona, he fell below average last year and lost the net to Connor Ingram. While Ingram hasn’t followed that up this season, Vejmelka has rebounded in a big way with 12 goals saved above expected through 11 games.
When Joseph Woll, the projected 1A in Toronto, was sidelined to open the season, it was Anthony Stolarz to the rescue. He put up sparkling numbers across his first five starts and continues to earn his minutes in rotation with Woll. In Calgary, Dustin Wolf has emerged as the front-runner in the Calder Trophy race. He is a major reason why the Flames sit in a playoff position right now. Logan Thompson has helped the Capitals surprise this season as well. He looks like one of the best goalie adds of the summer, along with Stolarz. Even Cam Talbot and Mackenzie Blackwood have earned praise for their starts behind bad defensive teams.
Nico Hischier’s two-way game
Hype-o-meter: 7/10
What makes the Devils such a threat? Their elite one-two punch down the middle has something to do with it. Jack Hughes is the more well-known superstar, but Nico Hischier can’t be underestimated, either.
Just look at his performance on Monday night against Nashville. In Hischier’s five-on-five minutes, the Devils outshot the Predators 18-7, earned 79 percent of the expected goal share, and had a 2-1 edge in scoring. Oh, and Hischier had a hat trick. That came just a few games after a dominant game against the Panthers, where his usual strengths — his playmaking and solid defense — were the shining elements.
Hischier’s back-to-back performances against Florida ended a small blip in the first quarter where his game trended down for a short stretch. But he has rebounded back to the heights of the early-goings of the season. Heading into Wednesday night’s game, that play has earned him a 55 percent expected goal rate at five-on-five while being tasked with matchup minutes in New Jersey.
Like Cirelli, Hischier’s making a statement through the first quarter of the season as one of the best two-way centers in the league. That could add some heat to the Selke conversation instead of just the usual race for second place behind Aleksander Barkov. It could even earn him some late-ballot Hart votes if he keeps driving the Devils.
Minnesota’s top four on defense
Hype-o-meter: 6.5/10
Brock Faber and Jonas Brodin picked up where they left off last season. They were stout in their own zone in their first couple of games together and helped bolster Minnesota’s offense. But when Jared Spurgeon was sidelined early lineup adjustments were made — including moving Jacob Middleton to Faber’s left.
The 2023-24 season wasn’t too kind to Middleton, who seemed to be missing his mainstay partner Spurgeon. But playing with Faber this season seems to have revitalized his game. In 287 minutes together at five-on-five, they have earned about 53 percent of the expected goal share while shouldering minutes against top competition and outscored opponents 16-6. Faber is the driving force of that — he is already building on his impressive rookie season with more shutdown play. The fact that Middleton is clicking there allows for more balance on the blue line behind them.
Unlike last year, the Wild don’t have one strong pair to lean on. When Spurgeon returned to the lineup, he landed in a familiar spot alongside Brodin. And the two have quickly rekindled their chemistry on the second pair. The Wild are controlling play with a 64 percent expected goal rate, and much of that is thanks to their stingy play. Minnesota has only conceded 1.45 expected goals against per 60 with this duo on the ice, which is among the best in the league.
This top-four has helped the Wild renew their identity as one of the best defensive teams in the league, and that seems to be benefitting their goaltenders after a rough last season.
Hype-o-meter: 6/10
The Sharks are projected to finish 32nd in the league with just 67 points. That’s a part of the process. But despite all of their flaws, the vibes feel different.
Coaching is a part of it, with a fresh voice behind the bench in Ryan Warofsky. Management bringing in veterans to complement the up-and-coming talent, like Tyler Toffoli, Mikael Granlund, Alex Wennberg and Jake Walman, has made a difference, too. Each one has been a better contributor than expected and given this team a surprising offensive punch some nights, along with up-and-comers William Eklund and Fabian Zetterlund.
Then, of course, there’s Macklin Celebrini. On the season as a whole, the production isn’t as eye-catching as it could be. And concerns are emerging below the surface, considering his number relative to his teammates. But there have been glimpses of his skill — and that started Night 1 of the season when he attempted a gusty spinning pass that ended up in the back of the net. That star power was on display again on Monday night in a three-point performance when the Sharks dominated the Kings, even if his underlying numbers were suspect.
That game on Monday was a reminder of what feels different about this Sharks team. San Jose is rising to the occasion against stronger opponents and staying in games longer than expected (some of which is thanks to that better-than-expected goaltending from Blackwood). Their games against the Rangers and Sharks earlier this month are reminders of that. Same with their 3-0 comeback against Pittsburgh to force overtime and their rally against the Red Wings for an overtime win just one game later.
The Sharks may not be good or have any hope of climbing up the standings. But they’re a lot more fun and disruptive this season.
— Data collected before Wednesday night’s matchups via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, Hockey Stat Cards, All Three Zones, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Jack Roslovic: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
