Big 12 mailbag: Multiple CFP bids? Coach Prime to the Playoff? Is BYU for real?

The Big 12 promised us parity, and so far, it has not disappointed.

Coach Prime to the College Football Playoff? Maybe. Mike Gundy on the hot seat? We’ll see. Undefeated BYU not getting near the level of respect it deserves from the CFP committee? Of course.

Let’s get to the mailbag.

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)

How many Big 12 teams have a realistic shot of making the Playoff? Only the champion? — Jay S.

The conference-approved answer is that just about every program still has a chance to make the Playoff: 14 of the 16 teams are still in contention to reach the Big 12 Championship Game entering this weekend, with only Arizona and Oklahoma State out of the race. Realistically, I’d have BYU, Iowa State, Colorado and two-loss Kansas State among the contenders, with some additional clarity coming Saturday from others with two league losses. (Texas Tech plays Colorado, West Virginia and Cincinnati play each other, etc.)

But I realize what you’re really asking is whether the conference has any chance of getting multiple teams in the 12-team Playoff field. Those odds suffered a massive blow last weekend with the losses by Iowa State and K-State. I can still envision a scenario where either Iowa State or Colorado (or maaayyybbbeee K-State) win out the rest of the way and knock off a still-undefeated BYU in the conference title game, with the champion getting an automatic spot and one-loss BYU earning an at-large. But I think that’s the only shot.

Obviously, the Playoff seeding doesn’t happen in a vacuum and depends on how things shake out across the rest of the sport — the more chaos, the better for the Big 12 — but I have a hard time seeing a two-loss, non-champion Big 12 team getting an at-large bid. — Williams

Has Dave Aranda saved his job and the season? — Bill Y.

Assuming Aranda stays, what are thoughts re: expectations for next season? — Bordeauxandpie

Unless the Bears lose out and finish 5-7, I think Aranda has coached himself off the hot seat. When I visited with Baylor athletic director Mack Rhoades this spring to discuss Aranda’s return, he didn’t declare a benchmark win total as a prerequisite. “I need to feel like we’ve regained momentum,” Rhoades said then. Though left unsaid, getting back to a bowl game was a critical part of that equation.

Baylor needs just one win to get there, but more than that, the Bears have played better in the second half of the season. Unlike September, when they found a way to lose to Colorado in a game they had in hand, the Bears found a way to beat TCU for a third straight win over the weekend. The quarterback play from Sawyer Robertson has been huge, the energy and confidence level of this team is rising and there is momentum. The Bears also have the second-ranked recruiting class in the Big 12.

Avoiding any of the head-scratching issues that popped up in 2023 or earlier this season — sleepy starts, defensive lapses, poor finishes — is critical to maintaining good vibes and keeping Aranda safe. But it looks like Baylor is turning the corner.

As for next season’s expectations: continued improvement and still being in the conversation for the Big 12 title game in November is reasonable. — Khan

Is BYU for real, or do they get embarrassed in the Playoff if they end up as the auto-bid? — Jesse M.

The Cougars are for real, but unfortunately, the question is not a mutually exclusive scenario, either. I’m not ready to rule out a legitimately good BYU team getting pantsed in the Playoff, depending on the matchup.

I am, however, buying this team. Not quite as a national title contender, but as a genuine top-10 team that has a top-five resume right now, featuring quality wins over SMU and Kansas State. How many teams currently have two wins of that caliber and zero losses? I’d argue Oregon, and that’s it. That calculus can change over the last month, even if it remains unbeaten, but for the time being, the CFP committee should have to go sit in the corner.

BYU has a stout defense with fast and physical linebackers. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff can be an experience at times, but he makes winning plays through the air and on the ground. The receivers are talented, the running backs are healthy, special teams is reliable and this group doesn’t commit a ton of penalties.

The biggest factor for BYU, if it makes the field, is how the bracket sets up. Right now, it is projected into the No. 4 seed and would play the winner of No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State. The Buckeyes would be a tough draw for the Cougars (or any team), and a good example of why that No. 5 seed will be a fascinating one.

There are far too many timelines that could unfold over the next month to hypothesize what each possible matchup would mean for the Cougars, but in this present-tense dimension, BYU is legit. — Williams

In a hypothetical world where Colorado wins the Big 12 and goes to the Playoff as the conference’s only representative, are fans of other Big 12 teams rooting for or against the Buffs? — Dan M.

For. Absolutely. The lack of national respect for the conference and the tendency for Big Ten and SEC schools to populate the top of the CFP rankings and drive the narrative in the sport has created a mutual resistance from those in Big 12 country. None of the schools in the league have favored nation status so there’s already a built-in chip on the shoulder from those fans.

And they know the way the conference can gain more respect is by force: meaning, winning Playoff games like TCU did in 2022. If only one team makes the Playoff, Big 12 fans will already be fired up about that. I’d bet most will throw their support behind the league’s representative, even if it’s Colorado. — Khan

How hot is Neal Brown’s seat, and does he deserve another season at West Virginia? — Trogdor the Burninator S.

It might be a heated seat, but I wouldn’t go all the way to hot. The ultimate answer might depend on how the Mountaineers finish. At 4-4 heading into Saturday’s trip to Cincinnati, it feels as if reaching bowl eligibility, or really anything short of the bottom completely falling out, would bring Brown back for 2025. He coached his way off of a hot seat in impressive fashion in 2023, bouncing back to win nine games, then took a voluntary pay cut this offseason and extended his contract through 2027. The amended buyout stipulates that he’s owed 75 percent of his remaining salary if fired, which would be north of $9.5 million if he was let go after this season. I can’t see WVU spending that kind of money with revenue sharing and other financial burdens on the horizon.

West Virginia (and Brown) expected better this season, and the team already made a change at defensive coordinator. But I’d be very surprised if Brown is not back in Morgantown next year. — Williams

Mike Gundy is on the worst losing streak of his career with more talent than he had on his original 2005 roster. Has his tendency to hire unproven coordinators finally come back to bite him? Is the new era of college football pushing him outside of his comfort zone? Is there anything Gundy can do to stop the bleeding, and do you believe he has it in him to clean house if needed? — Mike S.

Remember when Gundy said “I’m not gonna change my ways and change who I am?” before the 2023 season? I’ve thought about that quote a lot in the context of Oklahoma State’s struggles this year.

Gundy is a legend at Oklahoma State, and his success and longevity in Stillwater should be commended. But I can’t help but wonder if the continued evolution of the sport is becoming incongruent with his style. I understand his stances on NIL: He has said before that Oklahoma State won’t win battles by matching offers players get and his quotes earlier this year about refusing to negotiate in-season or saying one of his transfers was “inexpensive” make sense. He’s candid because he has always been.

But at some point, winning at the highest level means doing business the way business is done. And not playing that game is how you end up with the quarterback situation Oklahoma State is in, starting a seventh-year senior when you could have upgraded in the portal.

Gundy has been astute at finding quality coordinators, and if he makes staff changes, I have no doubt he’ll discover more. But the quality of the roster is paramount, and Gundy may have to evolve to get the Pokes back to Big 12 contender status. Is he willing? — Khan

With Houston’s two-game winning streak sparking bowl conversation and a surge in recruiting, how soon could we see Willie Fritz and the Coogs competing for a Big 12 title? — Logan F.

Coming into this season, I projected a three-to-four-year timetable. Fritz is a builder, and visiting with him this offseason, it became clear that he wasn’t going to take shortcuts. So much of his focus was on practice habits, technique, fundamentals and laying a foundation. Plus, the roster was gutted after the coaching change (the Cougars’ 63 newcomers tied with Colorado for the most among Power 4 schools). It showed early in the year, as the Cougars were awful offensively.

I’m sticking to that timeline, but after seeing the on-field improvement and how hard the Cougars play consistently, I lean more toward three years. Houston’s 2025 class is ranked 41st. If the Cougars finish at or near there, it would be their highest recruiting ranking since the 2016 #HTownTakeover class signed by Tom Herman, which was headlined by Ed Oliver and D’Eriq King.

Is a shorter timetable possible? BYU, Colorado and Arizona State are showing how quickly teams can turn things around in this conference, so Houston can aspire to that. But I see the Cougars’ trajectory being more gradual. — Khan

Will the Big 12 try to adjust future scheduling and rivalry matchups? I’m a Bearcats fan wondering why Cincinnati vs. West Virginia is not a yearly game. — Sarah R.

When the league set its 16-team scheduling matrix for 2024-27, it protected only four annual rivalries: the Territorial Cup between Arizona and Arizona State, The Revivalry between Baylor and TCU, the Holy War between BYU and Utah and the Sunflower Showdown between Kansas and Kansas State. That means no annual meetings for Farmageddon between Iowa State and Kansas State, or West Virginia vs. Cincinnati or Texas Tech vs. TCU, but a lot of those teams will still face off three out of four years.

Less protected rivalries was the trade made for fewer multi-timezone road trips and ensuring each school has a home-and-home with each of the other 15 members over the initial four year stretch. I’m sure the league will reassess when it comes time to figure out its post-2027 matrix — and who knows what fresh insanity this sport will have waiting for us by then? — but as someone who loves college football and is covering this league, I like the four-year home-and-home format the Big 12 landed on to open the 16-team era. Even if that means losing an occasional rivalry (or almost rivalry) game for one season. — Williams

Does Cam Skattebo get some NFL looks as a mid- to late-round pick? Gotta love his intensity and drive. — Mark D.

I sure hope so. Anyone who is as difficult to tackle and runs as hard as Skattebo does has a future at the next level. He’s a strong, physical, versatile player and has been a difference-maker for Arizona State. Kenny Dillingham is even stumping for Heisman Trophy votes for him, and I respect it.

 

What’s the deal with Iowa State looking flat-footed against Texas Tech coming off of a bye? It seems like a concerning trend for Matt Campbell. — Jon S.

I’m not sure if I see a trend: By my count, the Cyclones are 3-2 coming off an idle weekend since 2021, though they were 0-2 with two top-20, gut-punch losses to Iowa and Oklahoma in 2019. (I threw out the 2020 COVID-19 season.)

For me, the surprising thing about last Saturday’s loss to Texas Tech was losing a home game in lousy weather. That just felt like the kind of game this Iowa State team should win in Ames. And to be fair, the Clones had the lead with about two minutes left in a game they lost by one, despite outgaining Tech 432 yards to 366. They didn’t lay an egg, and credit to Texas Tech’s defense for buckling down and holding Iowa State to just 3.5 yards per rush on 38 attempts.

It’s a shame Iowa State couldn’t secure its first 8-0 start in program history, and whether it reaches the Big 12 championship could come down to a tiebreaker. But fans shouldn’t let that spoil what has been a really strong season. — Williams

(Photo of Colorado receiver/defensive back Travis Hunter: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)



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