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The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions have been in control of their conferences for months. And now, with just two weeks remaining in the regular season, they’ve impressively managed to keep control over the top spots.
The Chiefs knocked off the Houston Texans on Saturday to improve to 14-1 and maintain their two-game lead over the Buffalo Bills (12-2) for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They now need only one win or one Bills loss to secure the No. 1 seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs.
Things will be a little more challenging for the 13-2 Lions in the NFC, but after taking care of business against the Bears on Sunday, they still control their own fate. Win their final two games of the season, and they’ll secure the first-round bye. There is one catch, however. Their final game comes against the 13-2 Minnesota Vikings. If both teams win next week, it will set up a Week 18 showdown between these two division rivals that will decide which team wins the conference — as well as the NFC North — and gets the first-round bye, while the other team will have to go on the road in the first round of the playoffs.
As for the rest of the league, here’s where things stand with only the Monday night matchup (New Orleans at Green Bay) remaining in Week 16.
Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock.
AFC playoff picture
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 16 result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
z–1 |
14-1 |
W vs. HOU |
|
|
z–2 |
12-3 |
W vs. NE |
|
|
x–3 |
10-5 |
L vs. BAL |
|
|
z–4 |
9-6 |
L vs. KC |
|
|
x–5 |
10-5 |
W vs. PIT |
|
|
6 |
9-6 |
W vs. DEN |
|
|
7 |
9-6 |
L vs. LAC |
x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed
The Chiefs’ penchant for closing out opponents in close games starts with Patrick Mahomes, but it goes so much deeper than that. After the Texans cut it to 24-19 with 11:51 remaining Saturday, the Chiefs allowed the Texans to run only three plays and possess the ball for 97 seconds the rest of the way. Suffice it to say, you don’t want to be trailing the Chiefs in the fourth quarter.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 90.2% | To win Super Bowl: 21%
After that massive victory against the Lions, the Bills were probably guilty of overlooking the Patriots and had to surprisingly eke out a 24-21 victory in Buffalo. If the Bills and Chiefs both win next week, the Bills will lock up the No. 2 seed and should strongly consider resting Josh Allen and some key starters in Week 18, especially with Allen flexing his throwing hand late in the win against the Patriots. Could it erode Allen’s cushion in the MVP race? Maybe, but who cares? This team is good enough to win the Super Bowl if Allen is healthy.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 9.8% | To win Super Bowl: 12%
GO DEEPER
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The Steelers are clinging to the AFC North lead despite losing two in a row and three of five. They can still take the division if they win their final two games. But is there much confidence they’ll stave off the Chiefs or finish off a sweep of the Bengals? They’ve got a legit résumé with wins against the Broncos, Chargers, Commanders and Ravens, but the Steelers seem to be lacking the firepower (when will George Pickens return?) to sustain a playoff run. They can flip that narrative on its head by stunning the Chiefs on Christmas, though.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.5%
The Texans viewed this stretch against the Chiefs and Ravens as a playoff test run, and it didn’t get off to an ideal start. If they can’t hold serve at home this week against Baltimore, they’ll enter the postseason with one quality win, their victory over the Bills in Week 5. They’re inconsistent because they’re injured across the board and aren’t getting enough from their offensive line, so the Texans will be vulnerable next month.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 3.3%
The Ravens have proved they can beat just about anyone (Bills, Commanders, Buccaneers, Broncos, Chargers, Steelers) and lose to nearly anyone (Raiders, Browns). If they can win their last two games, they’ll have a solid shot to win their second consecutive division title. The Ravens should be favored in their playoff opener regardless of how the next two weeks play out, but for Lamar Jackson to win back-to-back playoff games for the first time in his career, he’ll almost certainly have to topple the Chiefs or Bills in the divisional round.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 6.6%
That was a good win Thursday against the Broncos to avoid a three-game losing streak against teams in the playoff field, but a bigger issue is beginning to surface. The Chargers, who were ranked No. 1 in points allowed for much of the season, have allowed at least 27 points in four of their last six games. Related, Justin Herbert has thrown at least 30 passes in five of the past six games. (He attempted 30 passes in just three of his first nine games.) They’ve also run for 100 yards in just one of their last five games after doing so in six of their first 10. It’s a tough time to be changing their identity.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 94%| To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 2.5%
The Broncos had a 24-13 lead midway through the third quarter against the Chargers and were closing in on their best win of the season before the defense allowed touchdowns on three of their next four series on their way to a loss. This could wind up being the difference between visiting Buffalo or the AFC North champs in the wild-card round.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 71.6% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.6%
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• Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
• Miami Dolphins (7-8)
• Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
Eliminated
• New York Jets (4-11)
• Cleveland Browns (3-12)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
• Tennessee Titans (3-12)
• Las Vegas Raiders (3-12)
• New England Patriots (3-12)
NFC playoff picture
|
Seed
|
Team
|
Record
|
Week 16 result
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
x–1 |
13-2 |
W vs. CHI |
|
|
x–2 |
12-3 |
L vs. WAS |
|
|
3 |
9-6 |
W vs. NYJ |
|
|
4 |
8-7 |
W vs. NYG |
|
|
x–5 |
13-2 |
W vs. SEA |
|
|
x–6 |
11-4 |
W vs. NO |
|
|
7 |
10-5 |
W vs. PHI |
x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title | * — Clinched No. 1 seed
The Lions disposed of the Bears 34-17 and re-established their one-game lead over the Eagles for the NFC’s No. 1 seed, but they’ve got a bigger issue with the Vikings looming with the same record. If both teams take care of business next week, it will set up a winner-take-all game for the NFC North title in Week 18 that will have playoff stakes, as a win would be worth a first-round bye. The Lions should be able to handle the 49ers, but their injuries will be a much greater concern in the finale.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 67.6% | To win Super Bowl: 14.8%
The Eagles’ 36-33 loss to the Commanders won’t matter in the standings if the Lions win their final two games, but there could be intangible consequences if there’s a rematch between these two NFC East teams in the wild-card round. Sure, the Eagles can argue the game could have played out differently if quarterback Jalen Hurts didn’t suffer an early concussion — even though Kenny Pickett helped them score 33 points — or if DeVonta Smith didn’t have a late third-down drop. But they also failed to take advantage of five takeaways and allowed the Commanders to score touchdowns on three of their final four possessions. The Commanders would love the chance to make amends for their Week 11 loss in Philly.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 4.3% | To win Super Bowl: 10.9%
The Rams offense has sputtered in their past couple of wins against the 49ers and Jets — beating both by a combined score of 31-15 — but their defense has more than made up for it. The Rams have won eight of 10, including four in a row, to take a one-game lead over the Seahawks, who have lost back-to-back games to the Packers and Vikings. The Rams’ victory in Seattle in Week 9 is looming large before the rematch in the finale. The Rams would clinch the NFC West next week if they win and the Seahawks lose to the Bears. Otherwise, the Seahawks would need to beat the Rams in Week 18 and hope to claim the strength-of-victory tiebreaker.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 86.7% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 4.1%
This could turn out to be a franchise-altering week for the Falcons, who benched Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr. and then leapfrogged the Buccaneers for the lead in the NFC South. The Bucs’ shocking loss to the Cowboys greatly swung the tide in the division, but the work is hardly done. If the Falcons win out against the Commanders and Panthers, they’ll return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. But the Bucs finish at home against an easier pair of opponents (Panthers, Saints), so this race isn’t over.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 52.2% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.1%
The Vikings have won eight in a row, but the victory in Seattle was the most impressive of this streak. While none of those wins have come against teams in the playoff field, this closing stretch will show just how much of a threat — or not — the Vikings should be considered in January. Sam Darnold has taken full command of the offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones all playing at their best. That’s a group that could be a nightmare for a banged-up Lions defense.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 28.2% | To win Super Bowl: 9.9%
DARNOLD TO JETTAS. VIKINGS RE-TAKE THE LEAD.
📺: #MINvsSEA on FOX
📱: pic.twitter.com/67RQyrb9vP— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
The Packers look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but they need to prove that this week in Minnesota. Their four losses this season have come against the Lions (twice), Eagles and Vikings, while their best wins have come against the Rams and Texans. They’ve got the offensive firepower and defensive execution to believe they can make a run, but it’d help the résumé if they can avoid getting swept by both teams ahead of them in the NFC North.
Remaining schedule:
Odds: To make playoffs: 100% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 5.5%
Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary against the Bears made for some epic theater, but the rookie’s poise throughout the game-winning drive against the Eagles was far more meaningful. This was the type of performance that’ll enhance his teammates’ belief in his ability to deliver in key moments, and they’re on the verge of their first playoff appearance in four years. Daniels will need to play like this to deliver the franchise’s first playoff victory in 19 years.
Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys
Odds: To make playoffs: 94.8% | To earn bye: 0% | To win Super Bowl: 1.7%
JAMISONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
📺 #PHIvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/k718liTMwK
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2024
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
• Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated
• Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
• Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
• San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
• New Orleans Saints (5-10)
• Chicago Bears (4-11)
• Carolina Panthers (4-11)
• New York Giants (2-13)
(Photo of Jared Goff: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
