NBA Lookahead: Is Kings' turnaround for real? If so, what's changed?

Every Thursday, I’ll be taking you through the big story heading into the weekend. Or maybe the weirdest story? Or maybe just something that makes me laugh and I think will make you laugh too. Essentially, if you’re subscribed to The Bounce and reading every day, we’re going to have the same fun here as we do in that space.

I’ve culled the weekend schedule for you to know what to pay attention to. Weird bad streaks against teams? Beefs you need to track? Just fun games with matchups you may not have known were happening? We’ve got that for you. On top of that, we’ll have a good old-fashioned Throwback Thursday to hit you with that feel-good nostalgia.

Let’s have fun by starting with the Sacramento Kings thriving under Doug Christie.

Story to watch: The Kings’ revenge?

Two days after Christmas, the Kings fired coach Mike Brown. It followed their fifth straight loss (all at home, so no beam was lit) that brought the Kings to 13-18, but the firing came out of nowhere. Brown was the first coach since Rick Adelman in 2006 to get the Kings to the playoffs, and things were going so well this past summer that the franchise gave him a contract extension through the 2026-27 season.

Tensions have been high regarding whether De’Aaron Fox will want to remain with the organization beyond his current deal (through next season), and Brown was very vocal about the issues facing the Kings. Owner Vivek Ranadivé and general manager Monte McNair decided a change was needed, a firing I think was short-sighted with a bad process.

The Kings lost their next game under interim coach and former Kings player Doug Christie. But since then, they haven’t lost, beating the Dallas Mavericks, Philadelphia 76ers, Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat. Pretty impressive, right? They will face the Boston Celtics on Friday night to test just how much has been corrected during the early days of the Christie era. How much of this turnaround is real, and how much of it might be a bit fluky? Let’s explore.

What has changed Kings during this stretch? 

While it’s a small sample size, we can take a look at the things the Kings have managed to improve upon recently.

Here are some important numbers (adjusted per 100 possessions) for the Kings before the firing with league ranking in parentheses (explanation below the bullet points if you don’t want to pore over the numbers there):

  • Offensive rating: 114.4 (eighth)
  • Areas of scoring: 47.9 points in the paint (tied for 15th) | 13.2 transition points (27th) | 18.2 points of turnovers (T-16th) | 34.9 3FG volume (23rd)
  • Shooting percentages: 56.2 percent 2FG (T-fifth) | 34.2 percent 3FG (24th) | 80.1 percent FT (fourth) | 71.7 percent restricted area (second)
  • Four factors: 54.3 percent eFG (T-11th) | 13.4 turnover rate (fourth) | 27.7 offensive rebounding rate (19th) | .251 FT volume (T-14th)
  • Defensive rating: 112.9 (16th)
  • Opponent areas of scoring: 44.1 points in the paint (T-second) | 11.6 transition points (first) | 17.1 points of turnovers (ninth-t) | 38.9 3FG volume (27th-t)
  • Opponent shooting percentages: 53.2 percent 2FG (10th) | 37.5 percent 3FG (T-26th) | 79.7 percent FT (T-26th) | 67.1 percent restricted area (21st)
  • Opponent four factors: 54.6 percent eFG (17th) | 14.9 turnover rate (T-14th) | 27.7 offensive rebounding rate (eighth) | .254 FT volume (18th)

Now let’s look at where these numbers are since Christie took over:

  • Offensive rating: 118.4 (T-fifth)
  • Areas of scoring: 49.7 points in the paint (16th) | 16.2 transition points (T-13th) | 21.8 points of turnovers (fourth) | 37.2 3FG volume (15th)
  • Shooting percentages: 54.8 percent 2FG (14th) | 35.9 percent 3FG (12th) | 83.7 percent FT (second) | 68.0 percent restricted area (T-15th)
  • Four factors: 54.4 percent eFG (13th) | 13.5 turnover rate (14th) | 33.3 offensive rebounding rate (fifth) | .224 FT volume (14th)
  • Defensive rating: 110.4 (10th)
  • Opponent areas of scoring: 44.8 points in the paint (fourth) | 13.4 transition points (fifth) | 16.9 points of turnovers (17th) | 34.0 3FG volume (fifth)
  • Opponent shooting percentages: 53.7 percent 2FG (11th) | 38.4 percent 3FG (27th) | 80.3 percent FT (23rd) | 69.3 percent restricted area (17th)
  • Opponent four factors: 55.3 percent eFG (T-21st) | 16.2 turnover rate (eighth) | 22.4 offensive rebounding rate (first) | .308 FT volume (30th)

I know what you’re thinking. “I’m not reading all that. Congratulations or I’m sorry.” Fair.


Doug Christie speaks with an official as the Kings take on the Mavericks. (Darren Yamashita / Imagn Images)

First, with a cross-section of six games, one good or bad game can wildly swing the numbers, so any improvements or declines should be taken with a massive grain of salt and not be considered changes for the better or worse. In this sample of games, the Kings’ offense has been better, mostly because of transition points, points off turnovers, higher 3-point volume and greater 3-point success with said volume. They’re shooting slightly worse overall, but the Kings are rebounding one-third of their missed shots and shooting better at the free-throw line.

Their defense has been better as well. We’ve seen improvements in lowering the 3-point volume against them, and they’re forcing more turnovers and doing a better job of rebounding opponent misses. But that’s about it. Most everything else is roughly the same. The main culprit of the improvement is the offense operating a lot better. In talking to some people around the organization, the messaging has been that Christie has simplified some things in terms of the schemes on both ends of the floor.

You’re probably thinking that sounds very vague, right? Well, it is. Sometimes that works, especially in a short-term scenario in which a new coach doesn’t really have time to implement any real changes he might want to make. Christie probably won’t truly have time to overhaul things to his style and philosophies until training camp going into next season. That’s assuming he ends up doing so well in this audition that the organization hires him as the head coach beyond this campaign.

Can you poke holes in this good stretch?

Let me try!

When you’re looking at a successful schedule you want to poke holes in, you looking at the opponent. The Lakers (only loss), Mavericks, Sixers, Grizzlies, Warriors and Heat are all formidable opponents most nights, but maybe these haven’t been the level of opponent you would expect with those names.

• Los Angeles was missing LeBron James, which makes the 10-point loss worse for Sacramento.

• Dallas was missing Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson. Sacramento won by 10.

• Philadelphia did not have Joel Embiid. Sacramento won by six.

• Memphis was missing Ja Morant. Sacramento won by five.

• Golden State had Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, and the Kings were missing Fox. Sacramento won by 30.

• Miami was missing Jimmy Butler, and the Kings were missing Fox again. Sacramento won by five in double overtime.

Overall, they’ve taken advantage of wounded opponents, but they can only play what’s in front of them.

There’s also a ton of variance in these games. A 30-point win in a six-game sample can greatly throw off everything in terms of trends, good or bad. Only time will tell if those things smooth out, keep going or change course drastically.

Is that enough to dismiss what the Kings have done under Christie? No, but I understand why people might raise an eyebrow in disagreement when considering the Kings’ issues resolved.

What is real from this good stretch?

Winning two of those games, even against struggling opponents like the Warriors and Heat, without your best player is significant. And from the eye test alone, the Kings look like they’re playing harder. Maybe that would’ve happened under Brown anyway. But it is happening under Christie. Sometimes a change in coaching voice does the trick for a team stuck in a rut, which the Kings were during that five-game losing streak of home games. Whatever sparks a change in execution doesn’t matter, as long as the progress is sustainable. We know this Kings team is better than what it was showing, regardless of injuries to the rotation at times.

Christie has them playing a lot more like that through the early parts of his tenure. Finding that extra motivation and inspiration could be key. Brown didn’t play at the NBA level, although he’s been on the coaching path or coaching in the NBA for roughly three decades. Christie didn’t just play, he played well. He had a 15-year career in the NBA with four and a half seasons happening during Sacramento’s heyday from 2000-05. He was a big part of their only real, sustainable success in Sacramento and can draw on that in a way Brown couldn’t.

After the win over the Sixers, Christie told the team to put their sweats on, get warm and follow him. They went to the roof of the Golden 1 Center so they could be up there when they lit the beam.

I fully admit to being cynical and finding this pretty corny. When I heard about it, I rolled my eyes. When I watched it, I rolled my eyes again. But that’s not for me, even as someone who grew up in Sacramento (I was never a Kings fan, although I loved Jason Williams and enjoyed watching that Kings team play). If that does something for the players, that’s all that matters.

How long this level of play lasts will be up to the players, not their coach, and the Kings go into Boston on Friday night looking to keep that up. The Celtics have struggled a bit lately, but they’re also the defending champs and look very healthy right now. The Kings will be tested all night.

They have a lot of road games coming up between now and the All-Star break, when Christie will have enough downtime to re-evaluate what they want to do the rest of the season. We’ll see what sticks for them and how he makes the Kings try to sustain their winning ways.

Games on the radar

Do you plan out your weekend around your sports-viewing schedule? You’re not alone. Are you the type to want to look like a sports savant by going to your local sports bar, suggesting a game to put on and then reveling in the praise from fellow patrons you’ll get for knowing what to watch? You’re home. Are you the type to just fly by the seat of your pants and wing it last minute when you remember games are on? Bookmark this post and refer to it later! These are the best games to pay attention to this weekend.

(All times Eastern)

Thursday

Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. on League Pass: Did you know these two teams are firmly entrenched in the second and third seeds in the Western Conference? They’re battling it out for seeding, and there isn’t a team within a couple of games of either in the standings. This could be a great defensive battle, if you’re looking for a throwback contest.

Friday

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. on League Pass: The only time these two teams have played so far this season is their NBA Cup battle to open the elimination round, and it was a great game. The Bucks are looking for that level of success again. The Magic seem to chug along no matter which players are healthy.


Anthony Black drives to the hoop as Damian Lillard defends during a Bucks-Magic NBA Cup matchup. (Benny Sieu / Imagn Images)

Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks, 7 p.m. on NBA TV: Another potential NBA Finals preview! Yes, I truly believe the Knicks could win the Eastern Conference. The Knicks have an unbelievable offense, and the Thunder have one of the top defenses of the last 20 years.

Saturday

Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. on League Pass: These two teams had a little bit of a rivalry brewing a couple years ago after one of the worst playoff series you could ever imagine. I don’t think we’ll see Morant (shoulder) in this one, but it will still be a great battle.

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. on League Pass: You’re getting Victor Wembanyama going against Anthony Davis and LeBron James. The Spurs are 0-2 against the Lakers this season, but we’ll probably see another great effort from this young squad trying to re-establish themselves in the West.

Sunday

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, 8 p.m. on NBA TV: Even with the Bucks struggling a bit, getting Giannis Antetokounmpo at Madison Square Garden is still a big deal. The Bucks need to string some wins against good teams, and the Knicks are a big target now.

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers, 8 p.m. on NBA TV: The Cavs are on a historic pace, and the Pacers are still trying to show they made it to the conference finals in May on merit. We could see a really fun, explosive offensive game.

Throwback Thursday: 10 random big men you need to feed

Recently on BlueSky, Luke Bonner (brother of former Spurs and Raptors forward Matt Bonner) was talking about how enjoyable and good the NBA product is to watch right now. And I agree! I think the hand-wringing about what’s going on with the product is mostly tired and unimaginative, especially when the games to start this season have been mostly high quality and whatever the Washington Wizards are doing. Russ Bengtson (formerly of SLAM Magazine) offered up that the game is possibly too optimized now and had a little twinge of nostalgia for the days of a random Ervin Johnson (not that one) post-up or Anthony Mason being allowed to dribble the life out of the ball.

I made a joke responding to Russ that you have to get Samuel Dalembert a post-up on offense just to make sure he’s still engaged in the game. It led to a fun bit of replies about random big men of the past for whom you had to do this. Someone called it “The Kendrick Perkins” rule, which is a perfect example of what the Thunder used to do at the beginning of games before they let their stars go to work.

With all that said, I figured I’d give some recognition to 10 random NBA big men between 1994 and 2010 for whom you’d throw away possessions to get them a post-up and pique their interest. In no particular order:

Michael Olowokandi

Yes, a No. 1 overall pick is going to get this thing going. Back with the Clippers, they were still trying to figure out whether they’d royally screwed up the 1998 draft by feeding him the ball. By the time he made it to Minnesota as a hopeful low-risk/high-reward big man option next to Kevin Garnett, they were just hoping to maintain his focus with any possible method. Olowokandi averaged just 6.1 points on 6.1 shots during his 137 games there, and you knew he wasn’t getting the ball whenever it mattered.

Erick Dampier

The majority of Dampier’s career happened in Golden State (425 of his 987 games) and Dallas (424 of his 987 games). And for the most part, he was a solid big man option. If you wanted him to play some defense and rebound, he needed a touch early on. Over a 13-year stint between the two teams, he averaged just 8.0 points on 6.1 attempts. But, man, you felt like he could average a double-double for his career.

Samuel Dalembert

The aforementioned Dalembert! I have zero statistical evidence to back this up, but I would guarantee he is the all-time leader in defensive goaltends. He averaged 7.7 points on 6.1 shot attempts per game for his career. It’s actually freaking me out now that the first three names I put in here all averaged 6.1 shot attempts during the time we’re discussing. Dalembert was very reliable, playing 82 games in four straight seasons for the Sixers — just not as an offensive option.

Brendan Haywood

I don’t quite believe Haywood fits in like the rest of these guys, but his name was submitted by a Wizards fan on Blue Sky, so I want to pay my respect. It was given in a very funny way:

Hi my name is Eddie Jordan. I have Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler on my team. We will start every game with a Brendan Haywood post up. This is the Eddie Jordan Guarantee.

If he didn’t present this in such a hilarious way with the “Eddie Jordan Guarantee, ” then he might not have made the cut. Haywood averaged 7.7 points on 5.4 attempts during his 579 games with the Wizards. At least we broke the 6.1 attempts streak!


Brendan Haywood: Remember him? (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

Ervin Johnson: Nuggets, Bucks, Timberwolves

This was the one offered up as an example by Russ to kick the whole thing off, and it hit me in the feelings for sure. His name was almost the exact same, but he offered up nearly the opposite of Magic on the court. He never averaged 8.0 points or 5.8 shot attempts, and most of his years were much lower than that. But Johnson was always good for solid post defense and rebounding in the minutes you played him. Just try to get those hands to catch the early post-entry pass.

Dale Davis

A one-time All-Star, Davis has his best years with Indiana and was a double-double machine at times. He also was probably the best player on this list, and maybe it’s a little unfair to include him. The reason I’m including him is not for the early post-up, but a moment I watched a few years ago. Remember the game when Reggie Miller lit the Knicks up in the fourth quarter? There’s a moment in the middle of that run in which Davis posted up, got the ball and the Knicks defense left Miller to double-team. Miller knocked it down. I can’t believe that was the style of defense back then.

P.J. Brown

Actually, maybe Davis wasn’t the best player on this list? Brown averaged double figures in scoring five times in his 15-year career with the Nets, Heat and Hornets. Give him a touch early, and you got a dog the rest of the game on the defensive end. Also, he hilariously received a fifth-place MVP vote during the 2004-05 season. He must have been amazing and underrated, right? Possibly! He averaged 10.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists on a Hornets team that went 18-64. Seriously.

Jamaal Magloire

Another one-time All-Star on this list! His 13.6 points and 10.3 rebounds for the Hornets in 2003-04 got him to All-Star Weekend. But most of the time, teams were trying to harness his talent. And he had talent. He was a good big man at Kentucky, and he should have given his teams a much better NBA career. Maybe The Big Cat just didn’t get enough touches early on in games to get motivated.

Andrew Lang

Lang was mostly a big man in and out of the starting lineup for the Hawks, and he did average double digits in scoring one season. Mostly, he was big body they were begging to stay in the way of a golden era of centers. Maybe Felton Spencer would’ve been a better selection here? Maybe I’m just using this as an excuse to get more names in? Like if I just started mentioning Tony Battie or Mark Blount or Olden Polynice? Who’s to say?

Greg Ostertag

I absolutely had to include ‘Tag on this list. He really didn’t score, and he played 20 minutes a game for the Jazz and only averaged 4.9 points on 3.8 shots. Jerry Sloan usually looked like he wanted to strangle him, but he was willing to absorb elbows from Shaquille O’Neal. Get Ostertag a dunk or a touch early, and he was locked in — as locked in as he could be. His best work, as “Joe Sparks,” happened in the movie “Eddie.”

(Top photo of DeMar DeRozan: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)



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