The Rankings Boys are back in town after a two-week holiday hiatus — just in time for the midway point of the NHL season.
The middle of the season offers a great chance to reflect on what’s happened to date and look ahead to what could happen next. For some players, that means putting their best foot forward after a slow or disappointing first half.
That’s what this week’s theme is all about: players who need to step up in the final 41(ish) games.
Dec. 20 rank: 2
Sean’s ranking: 1
Dom’s ranking: 1
It’s hard to pick a player who needs to “step up” on the league’s best team. The Golden Knights are where they are because the entire roster has been completely dialed in through the first half of the season. If we have to pick one, though, we will go with Nicolas Roy. He’s finally getting a bigger role after playing some incredibly effective hockey in a sheltered role, but the transition hasn’t been seamless. He’s struggled defensively higher up the lineup and could stand to clean things up.
Dec. 20 rank: 1
Sean’s ranking: 2
Dom’s ranking: 2
On one hand, Andrew Mangiapane deserves credit for what he’s brought to Washington’s lineup; he’s scoring at a 20-goal pace, and the Capitals are decisively winning his minutes. None of their forwards has been on the ice for fewer expected goals per 60.
That said, imagine how the Caps would look if Mangiapane channeled the 2021-22 version of himself when he scored 35 goals for the Flames and forced his way into the Team Canada discussion. Seriously, if NHL players went to the 2022 Olympics, he might’ve been on the plane.
Dec. 20 rank: 12
Sean’s ranking: 3
Dom’s ranking: 3
Logan Stankoven started the season red-hot with 14 points in his first 15 games. He has just five in the 23 games since. If Dallas’ claim to fame is its forward depth, those kinds of slumps are inexcusable. Stankoven needs to find more consistency in the second half — he’s too good to go that cold for that long.
Dec. 20 rank: 4
Sean’s ranking: 4
Dom’s ranking: 5
The bar for Auston Matthews is extremely high. At his best, he’s a perennial MVP candidate who scores at will and dominates at both ends of the ice. Suffice to say, that version of Matthews hasn’t shown up much this season as he played through injury through much of the first half. Matthews has looked a lot better since returning, and the Leafs will need him to keep that up in the second half. A first-ever Atlantic Division title is on the line.
Dec. 20 rank: 10
Sean’s ranking: 5
Dom’s ranking: 4
It was always going to be tough for Jeff Skinner to get back to the 60-point range in Edmonton without prime power-play time. A spot in the top six next to one of the two best players in the world should’ve helped make up some of the difference, but it was hard to trust Skinner that high up in the lineup. For the season, he has just 15 points in 39 games, a far cry from the 50-point pace many were expecting.
Dec. 20 rank: 16
Sean’s ranking: 6
Dom’s ranking: 6
When Colorado acquired Casey Mittelstadt last spring, the thought was that they’d added a quality depth piece for the foreseeable future. That’s … not what they’ve gotten. Mittelstadt has scored twice since Halloween, taken a step back as a playmaker — at one point going 18 games without a five-on-five assist — and posted an atrocious 44.7 expected goal rate. He’s got to do more.
Dec. 20 rank: 9
Sean’s ranking: 7
Dom’s ranking: 7
Overall, Cole Perfetti’s numbers aren’t great — with top-six minutes and a decent bit of power-play run, he should probably have more than 23 points in 42 games. The rate stats aren’t pretty, either, with 1.34 points per 60 at five-on-five.
It gets worse, though, when you consider that he scored nine of those 23 points in a five-game cluster back in October. For a contender, the Jets (as always) are a little short on playmakers. More from Perfetti would go a long way.
Dec. 20 rank: 11
Sean’s ranking:
Dom’s ranking: 8
The Kings are paying Kevin Fiala good money — $7.87 million against the cap — to do a little more than produce 1.97 five-on-five points per 60. That puts him with the Jesper Boqvists and Ross Coltons of the world; solid players, but nobody’s idea of top-six difference-makers. L.A. looks a lot more like a legit contender if Fiala reverts to form.
Dec. 20 rank: 3
Sean’s ranking: 9
Dom’s ranking: 9
Sergei Bobrovsky has been good of late, with a .940 save percentage over his last six starts, but his body of work this season has been average — really, a .903 save percentage and 1.52 goals saved above expected is about as average as a goalie can get. Backup Spencer Knight (.891, minus-1.06 GSAx) has been worse. Florida doesn’t need those guys to be great, but it’d be nice to get a more consistent cushion.
Dec. 20 rank: 5
Sean’s ranking: 10
Dom’s ranking: 10
At some point, we’re going to have to accept that Andrei Svechnikov is never going to be a franchise scorer. Even with those lowered expectations in mind, however, his output this year has still been disappointing. Svechnikov is scoring at just a 59-point pace. That’s probably more bad luck than anything, but that still means Svechnikov needs to execute better.
Dec. 20 rank: 6
Sean’s ranking: 11
Dom’s ranking: 11
Tampa Bay’s top half might be the scariest in the league, but that doesn’t mean the Lightning aren’t without their vulnerabilities. That bottom half? Hoo boy, is it scary in a whole other way.
That was to be expected going into the season. Still, there’s room for players to step up. In particular, the third pair, Emil Lilleberg and Nick Perbix, has looked rough despite playing some of the league’s cushiest minutes.
Dec. 20 rank: 7
Sean’s ranking: 13
Dom’s ranking: 12
As a two-way force, Joel Eriksson Ek looks as good as ever. His five-on-five numbers continue to be excellent at both ends of the ice.
What’s made Eriksson Ek a legit top-line center in recent seasons, though, is that he’s become a strong producer on top of that, scoring well over one goal per 60 minutes of play in three of the last four seasons. Right now, he’s at 0.78. That’s not a huge drop, but when every other core piece has matched or elevated its usual play, it’s a noticeable one. There’s still some meat on the bone left for Eriksson Ek, especially if he stays healthy after missing most of December with a lower-body injury.
Dec. 20 rank: 8
Sean’s ranking: 12
Dom’s ranking: 13
As good as Dawson Mercer’s numbers are defensively in a tough role next to Nico Hischier, he could stand to bring more offensively. For the season, he’s scored just 1.53 points per 60, which leaves the Devils wanting in the top six. It can’t just be the team’s top four guys producing all the offense — someone needs to step up, and that someone should be Mercer. He certainly looked like a player who could be that guy in his first two seasons; he just hasn’t taken a step forward since.
Dec. 20 rank: 27
Sean’s ranking: 14
Dom’s ranking: 15
An injury to Sean Monahan is bad news for the Blue Jackets, but it does leave the door open for Adam Fantilli to step up and show he can be a difference-maker. While the team as a whole has been a pleasant surprise this season, Fantilli has been the exact opposite as he’s been mired in a sophomore slump. On top of not scoring much, he somehow has a 35 percent xG rate on the season. Fantilli has a lot more to give.
Dec. 20 rank: 13
Sean’s ranking: 16
Dom’s ranking: 14
We’ll save you all from yet another blustering blurb about the current forward feud at the top and instead talk about an arguably bigger problem: Every defenseman not named Quinn Hughes.
The team’s defensive depth looked like it would be an issue going into the season. Instead, it looks like a full-blown catastrophe. It’s bad but it also shouldn’t be this bad. A lack of reliable puck-movers is a big problem, and if Tyler Myers is the second guy over the boards in overtime, you’re not going to have a good time, as the Canucks experienced Wednesday against the Capitals. Vancouver isn’t in panic mode yet but does need major help beyond Hughes; this doesn’t look like an issue that can be solved in the room.
The Senators need more from Shane Pinto. (Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Images)
16. Ottawa Senators, 19-18-3
Dec. 20 rank: 14
Sean’s ranking: 15
Dom’s ranking: 16
We’ll cut Shane Pinto at least a bit of slack. No Senator has been burned more by bad luck — Ottawa is controlling 55.16 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice. Not too shabby.
Still, the man has four assists on the season. He’s producing primary assists (0.32 per 60) at a worse rate than Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin and Alex Carrier — three defensive defensemen. Secondary assists? Even worse. Pinto’s 0.11 per 60 a) looks like a typo and b) is tied for 617th in the league. He needs to be better, period.
Dec. 20 rank: 22
Sean’s ranking: 17
Dom’s ranking: 18
Credit to the Blues — they’re getting plenty from their top guys. It’d be nice for them, though, if Brandon Saad could go on a bit of a heater. He’s scoring at a 14-goal pace this season, down from 26 in 2023-24. More production would help with their wild-card push or raise his stock at the deadline. Either would be welcome.
Dec. 20 rank: 17
Sean’s ranking: 18
Dom’s ranking: 17
In his first two seasons, Matias Maccelli carved out a niche as a productive, playmaking winger and looked like a legitimate building block for whatever comes next in Utah. Year 3 has been ugly — his five-on-five points per 60 have nearly been cut in half (2.57 to 1.32), as has his primary assist rate (1.17 to 0.55).
19. Calgary Flames, 19-14-7
Dec. 20 rank: 18
Sean’s ranking: 19
Dom’s ranking: 20
Yegor Sharangovich was productive enough in his first season with the Flames — 59 points in 82 games — to sign a five-year, $28.75 million contract extension. He hasn’t followed that up, though, with 11 overall points in 33 games and an abysmal 0.82 points per 60 at even strength. Calgary continues to hang around in the wild-card race; some decent production from Sharangovich would go a long way.
Dec. 20 rank: 28
Sean’s ranking: 20
Dom’s ranking: 21
The Canadiens have forced their way into the wild-card picture despite getting nearly nothing, in terms of production, from Juraj Slafkovský, who’s currently scoring at a nine-goal pace. He’s generating chances at a better rate than that, though, and shooting just 8.7 percent, so more could be on the way.
Dec. 20 rank: 20
Sean’s ranking: 21
Dom’s ranking: 22
At first blush, a few different Penguins could slot in here — but really, how much more can they expect from Tristan Jarry? Kris Letang, though, can certainly be better. Pittsburgh is getting outscored 35-23 with him on the ice at five-on-five, and that’s not solely due to goaltending; a 45 percent expected goal share is ugly. The worst of Letang’s career, in fact. He needs to find a way to dial his production back up — and that’s a big ask, given Pittsburgh’s terminal lack of forward depth and the fact that he turns 38 in a few months.
Dec. 20 rank: 21
Sean’s ranking: 24
Dom’s ranking: 19
The Rangers earned a gutsy win against the Devils on Thursday night that has the potential to turn the whole season around. Who needs to step up to make that happen and get this team back in the playoffs? Pretty much everyone not named Adam Fox.
Against the Devils, some of the non-Foxes delivered. Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck each had a point, while K’Andre Miller had his best defensive game in ages. The Rangers looked good, and that all starts at the top. It can’t just be Fox — the rest of the core needs to be better. Thursday was a great start.
Dec. 20 rank: 23
Sean’s ranking: 22
Dom’s ranking: 23
You would be forgiven if you forgot Vladimir Tarasenko was a member of the Detroit Red Wings — we certainly did with how quiet he’s been this season. Was there evidence he was probably washed last season? Definitely. And this year just feels like further proof of that. Maybe Todd McLellan can get more out of Tarasenko in the second half. But even if your expectations for him were already low, it’s hard not to be disappointed with just four goals and 14 points in 39 games.
Dec. 20 rank: 15
Sean’s ranking:
Dom’s ranking: 24
Elias Lindholm, Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle, Trent Frederic — pick any guy on the team who plays center. None has been good enough, a problem Boston wasn’t supposed to have after signing Lindholm. He was supposed to be the top-line center this team was missing while also pushing everyone down to their appropriate roles. Turns out Lindholm isn’t that. As long as Boston’s center depth is among the league’s absolute worst, the playoffs are going to be a pipe dream. From top to bottom, the team’s pivots need to be better.
Dec. 20 rank: 24
Sean’s ranking: 26
Dom’s ranking: 25
Outside of Bo Horvat, it’s been a rough season for the Isles’ core pieces. Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson and Noah Dobson all have underwhelmed to some degree. We’re going with Ilya Sorokin here, though, simply because we know just how much of a difference he can make. Thursday’s 30-save shutout against Vegas was a great reminder, but his overall numbers (.901 save percentage, 2.45 goals saved below expected) are still miles short of his ceiling.
Dec. 20 rank: 19
Sean’s ranking: 25
Dom’s ranking: 27
Of the 58 goalies who have played 10 or more games, the Flyers have three in the bottom 10 when it comes to GSAx per game. Samuel Ersson, Ivan Fedotov, Aleksei Kolosov — it doesn’t matter, they’ve all been bad. Someone, anyone, needs to step up and take the reins here, as the Flyers have looked formidable otherwise. It’s the goaltending that’s let them down night in and night out, all but crushing whatever playoff hopes the team had this season.
Dec. 20 rank: 32
Sean’s ranking: 27
Dom’s ranking: 26
Much as everyone likes Dylan Cozens, he’s on pace for 41 points. Last season, he had 47. Plenty about Owen Power screams “top-pair defenseman” — but not his performance. He’s been, basically, average. If the Sabres make it out of this mess, it’ll be because one (or both) of those guys helps drag them.
Dec. 20 rank: 26
Sean’s ranking: 28
Dom’s ranking: 28
It’s important to note that Leo Carlsson just turned 20. That makes it way, way too early to make any grand proclamations about his future. Still, he’s been across-the-board worse in Year 2, particularly as a playmaker. He’s the centerpiece of Anaheim’s rebuild (for now), and the Ducks need him to start looking the part.
Dec. 20 rank: 25
Sean’s ranking: 29
Dom’s ranking: 29
Chandler Stephenson somehow has a 31 percent xG rate this season while scoring just 1.33 points per 60 at five-on-five. Many smart folks figured that contract would be onerous from the get-go, but even the most pessimistic couldn’t have imagined it would be this bad this quickly. Stephenson is making $6.25 million this year and for six years after, and he’s going to need a helluva second half to be worth even half of that.
Dec. 20 rank: 31
Sean’s ranking: 30
Dom’s ranking: 30
Given how bad Nashville’s offense has been, the answer that fits best has to be Andrew Brunette. With how strong Florida was offensively during his tenure and how he coaxed last year’s Predators to incredible offensive heights, it’s baffling that this year’s group is the league’s absolute worst at scoring goals at five-on-five. By a lot. After adding some big-time offensive weapons in the summer, there’s no excuse for that. Brunette needs to squeeze more out of this team in the second half.
Dec. 20 rank: 30
Sean’s ranking: 31
Dom’s ranking: 31
We can move on from the “Is something up with Connor Bedard?” discussion. He’s got 11 points in his last eight games. All is well. Beyond that, though, who on this roster should be doing more? Frank Nazar has played a dozen games. Tyler Bertuzzi is up to 14 goals. Everyone else is basically living up to their expectations. That’s not much of a compliment; it is, however, the truth.
Dec. 20 rank: 29
Sean’s ranking: 32
Dom’s ranking: 32
San Jose has at least one important box checked: Macklin Celebrini is as good as the Sharks could’ve hoped — and the “Baby Auston Matthews” act plays well on TV, too. The next step is getting more from Will Smith, who has 14 points in 35 games and expected/actual goal rates around 39 percent. He’s also played just 43 minutes with Celebrini. Let’s get that fixed.
(Top photo of Keegan Kolesar and Nicolas Roy: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
