As the sands of time settle on the 2024 fantasy football season, forward-looking fantasy managers can already see some big draft-day questions coming into shape for 2025. While much will shift over the course of free agency and the NFL draft, it’s not hard to look back and identify a handful of players who will fuel any number of offseason hot takes about expectations for the upcoming season.
Can a 2024 fantasy draft darling rebound after an up-down-and-sidelined season? Could a tight end emerge from this year’s positional wasteland to warrant (gasp!) a first-round pick? Can a former No. 1 draft pick, all but left for dead by fantasy managers, pull himself into the QB1 conversation for 2025? And what the actual heck are we supposed to do with Christian McCaffrey?
The Athletic’s fantasy staff of Jake Ciely, Brandon Funston, Jess Bryant and Mike Hume break down some of fantasy football’s most divisive players this offseason against some bold projections for 2025. And it starts with the Indianapolis Colts’ mercurial QB.
Jump to:
Anthony Richardson | Brock Bowers
Christian McCaffrey | Marvin Harrison Jr.
Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud?
Jake Ciely: Was it ugly in 2024? Yes, but we didn’t expect otherwise. We were hoping for mid-3,000 yards and 20-25 touchdowns, and no, Richardson didn’t come close to that, even when looking at his post-benching pace. However, he did check in with a 2,900-yard pace with only 14 passing touchdowns. We didn’t need more than that, though, because then we’d be looking at Top 5, and Top 5 is a pipe dream.
Richardson has rushing upside, and after his return, he had 257 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground. Project that out, and we’re looking at 874 and 17. Obviously, we don’t expect 17 touchdowns from Richardson, but even a full season of 2,800-15 and 800-12 is 282 points, which would rank as a low-end QB1 every year, and that’s before his potential improvement as a passer.
Yes, Richardson is toeing the line of not being an NFL quarterback, but his rushing stat line carries too much upside to knock him from QB1 territory (assuming health, of course).
Brandon Funston: It’s easy to understand how Richardson becomes a Top 10 fantasy quarterback. You only have to look back at 2022 Justin Fields to see how an unpolished passer with tremendous rushing talent can deliver QB1 returns. But there’s just no way I’ll make this bet on draft day.
Availability is as important as any attribute for a fantasy QB. Injury and inept play have caused Richardson to miss 19 of a possible 34 games in his young career, almost forcing you to reach early in drafts for QB insurance. Not ideal, especially in 1QB leagues where you might want to roster only one quarterback during weeks when the bye is hitting your roster hard.
To borrow from Forrest Gump, I don’t want a box of chocolates at QB. I don’t care if he nets out as a Top 10 QB in the end, I don’t want to ride a rollercoaster to get there.
Mike Hume: Here’s the thing about quarterbacks, they’re not running backs. You have to throw the ball at some point. Richardson wasn’t just bad at throwing accurate passes, he was literally the worst in the league (47.7 percent completion percentage). The aforementioned Fields completed 61.4 percent of his throws before the Chicago Bears decided he should no longer be their quarterback.
All four of the QBs the Browns played in 2024 had higher completion percentages, as did all four of the QBs the Giants played. And in the Giants’ case, I use the term “QB” very, very loosely. Richardson made Tommy Cutlets look like Tommy Filet Mignon in the passing department. I’m with Brandon on this one.
Jess Bryant: I grew up in Indiana, so maybe I’m biased, but Richardson has a big arm; he throws downfield with ease and runs the ball well. While there are accuracy issues, his rushing yards and touchdowns can compensate for some passing inefficiency, and there’s no way he will be less efficient next year. If the Colts improve their defense, and their O-line can stay healthy — Quenton Nelson was Indy’s only offensive lineman to play 17 games in 2024 — pressure will be taken off Richardson, and I think he (barely) becomes a Top 10 quarterback.
Brock Bowers is worth a first-round pick
Photo by Ethan Miller / Getty Images
Mike: Yes, on the condition it’s in the last third of the first round in a 12-team league. Still, I think he warrants legitimate consideration as early as Pick 8.
I know TE was a wasteland in 2024, but it’s for that very reason that Bowers gets some extra juice. Bowers was one of three tight ends to top 1,000 yards receiving last season (George Kittle and Trey McBride were the others), making him a scarce commodity at a challenging position. As a rookie and – I cannot emphasize this enough – with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell as his quarterbacks, Bowers scored 117.3 more points than the 12th-ranked TE (i.e. the lowest TE1) in PPR formats and almost 74 points more than the sixth-ranked TE. Put another way, Bowers provided at least a 4.3-point edge per game over half your fantasy league.
By Pick 8, you’re not getting the top RBs or WRs. If you eliminate the top four scorers at those positions in 2024, the advantage gained over your competition is significantly less, based on the 2024 results – 2.55 ppg vs. the No. 12 scoring WR and 3.19 vs. the No. 12 RB. (I’m using 12 at those positions instead of six since most leagues require you to start two WRs/RBs vs. 1 TE.)
Going by Brandon’s Early 2025 Big Board, that likely means Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, CeeDee Lamb and Puka Nacua would be off the board. I’d probably take Amon-Ra St. Brown (Brandon’s No. 9 player) ahead of Bowers, but otherwise, you could snag your TE for a big edge over your leaguemates and then still snag one of the Top 17 players on the board coming back in Round 2. Not a bad start.
More to the point, if 2024 is Bowers’ floor – rookie season with meh QBs – what’s his ceiling? Travis Kelce warranted a consensus 2023 first-round slot after posting a 316.3-point season in 2022. Could Bowers crack the triple-century mark after a first season like the one he just had? It wouldn’t shock me.
Jake: As with Travis Kelce before, you will never catch me drafting a tight end in the first round, likely even the second. The player must have a significant gap on everyone else, maybe outside of one other tight end, to warrant that pick, and there is no room for error. Even then, he’s worth that pick, which means you don’t even leave room for return value. On top of that, you end up with a questionable roster build likely needing to lean into Zero RB.
That’s all before focusing on Bowers, who was and is seen as “generational” (ugh, I just groaned at myself for the word). Can Bowers be the new Travis Kelce? Sure. Can he do it with the Raiders? Nope.
You need Kelce’s production — from his 2018, 2020, and/or 2022 seasons – to warrant a second-round pick, let alone first. And those seasons, Kelce had double-digit touchdowns with a minimum of 103 receptions and 1,336 yards. That production? In this Raiders’ economy? I’ll have zero Bowers next year if he doesn’t make it to the third round.
Brandon: I think it’s fair to consider Bowers at the backend of Round 1, but it would require taking him over the likes of Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor — to name a few in the group that I have ranked ahead of him. That’s too big a TE premium for me.
George Kittle and Trey McBride were his fantasy equals. There’s no strong reason to believe they’ll be appreciably worse next year and they’ll be cheaper than Bowers in 2025 drafts. So for Bowers to make sense, he’ll actually have to separate himself completely from the top of the TE class. We learned from Sam LaPorta that assuming a rookie will only get better in his second season is dangerous.
The Raiders will have major coaching changes for 2025, and what happens if they go out in the offseason and add a Tee Higgins or Chris Godwin (or Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen or a top rookie receiver)? Bowers had his five best fantasy outputs when Davante Adams wasn’t in the lineup.
Christian McCaffrey will be a Top 10 RB in 2025
Photo by Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images
Jake: There are four names you can argue will finish as the No. 1 RB in 2025: Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and … McCaffrey. Yes, every fantasy manager of CMC is still heated from this season. I get it. But, every player with a history of injuries is a risk until they’re not.
Sure, McCaffrey could miss time, suffer another injury, yada yada, but so can any number of running backs. The question shouldn’t be, “What if CMC gets hurt again?” The question is, “What if CMC is healthy and plays even 15 games?” Not to mention, the best part about this is we’re debating if he’s still an RB1. Not only is McCaffrey a Top 10 RB, he’s not going to cost more than a fringe RB1 price, and no running back in that range has his ceiling.
Jess: Christian McCaffrey not only let fantasy managers down in 2024, but he is responsible for three of the five worst performances by a consensus top pick since 2000, and he’s getting older. He’ll be one year shy of 30 next season — the common age of decline for RBs (excluding Derrick Henry, who is still an absolute beast).
The 49ers have shown they can be successful on the ground with any number of backs, and so if McCaffrey’s injured, even minorly, they can sit him longer for preservation. He’s on the edge of a Top-10 back for me, but if Jonathon Taylor or Chase Brown are available in that spot, I’m taking them and a number of other backs that could fall.
Brandon: I’m going to quote what I wrote in my Big Board companion piece:
“McCaffrey will be 29 years old, he has Achilles tendinitis in both feet, and he has sunk fantasy teams with devastating injuries in three of the past five seasons. I’m going to put all McCaffrey narratives on mute in the run-up to draft season… I won’t consider him at all unless I can get him outside the RB Top 12 (unlikely, I know). It’s shaping up to be a great year for top-end RBs, one that will mitigate the need to take on high-end backfield risk.”
Photo by Rio Giancarlo / Getty Images
Jake: Marvin Harrison Jr. doesn’t have a talent problem; he has a Kyler Murray problem. Kinda.
First, Murray — like Drew Brees before, Bryce Young now, and others — has to work the pocket differently given his height. Yes, height matters to a degree, but it’s not a death knell, rather something that requires adaptation. Shorter quarterbacks have to work offensive line lanes to see more, and often when things break down or go off script, finding receivers is more difficult than for someone a half-foot taller. That’s why you’ll regularly see slot receivers, particularly “big slot” types fit better in schemes for shorter quarterbacks. While it was a misnomer, Michael Thomas’ “slant god” nickname had some truth.
But back to Murray and Harrison. Murray is less of a downfield thrower these days, and he hasn’t developed a high-level rapport with Harrison … yet. We saw the play where Murray didn’t come back through his reads to find a wide-open Harrison, but that “knowing where my top option will be” will come.
DeAndre Hopkins was the main outlier for Murray’s top producers (Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, even Trey McBride), and Hopkins is a Hall of Famer and a different breed. Trust between Hopkins and Murray came quickly, and Hopkins had years of NFL experience to know where to be for Murray. Harrison will get better, and he will become a Top 20-25 option, at worst. However, the hope that talent can overcome the concerns — even from yours truly — making Harrison a fantasy WR1 is gone.
Brandon: Yeah, Kyler Murray is the issue here. As Jake mentioned, D-Hop managed to crack the Murray code, but he’s the only Arizona receiver in Murray’s six-year tenure to top 77 catches, 1,000 receiving yards or 13 PPR PPG. Being a No. 1 WR in Arizona with Murray at QB is an anomaly. For MHJ to bridge the gap between his WR3 rookie finish and WR1 production, he’d likely need around 20-25 more catches and 250-300 more receiving yards in 2025, while delivering another 8 TDs. That’s a bridge too far.
Mike: I think we’re all nodding with your answer, Jake. Picture a gallery of bobbleheads. Preach, King.
Bryce Young will outplay C.J. Stroud and finish in the Top 12 for QBs
Photo by Alex Slitz / Getty Images
Mike: Okay, I’ll bite. Give me Young over Stroud, and I think he at least flirts with QB1 status next season.
Quick frame of reference: You shouldn’t be drafting either one as your 2025 starter. So, to me, this is about upside, and Young’s got more of it.
I get Stroud’s appeal. The Texans QB played well as a rookie, completed a whole bunch of passes and took his team to the playoffs. But keep in mind he made the QB1 cut in 2023 by 4.5 points and the quarterback right behind him at No. 12 was Sam Howell. Comparatively, though, Young struggled mightily, got benched early in Season 2, and everyone left him for dead. But maybe Young’s just a little down and not out, like that peasant in Monty Python and the Holy Grail — “I’m not dead yet!” he cries over the din of the draft room. Ya know what? I believe him. And I’d buy in as a cheap backup with upside compared to Stroud’s likely more costly ADP.
Much like the aforementioned filth-wallowing peasant born into serfdom, how was Young supposed to succeed as a rookie? He had no stud receivers (apologies to Adam Thielen), he had no offensive line (second most sacks allowed in 2023, though some of that’s on Young), and he was constantly playing from behind (fourth-most points allowed) allowing defenses to anticipate passes. Speaking of sacks, his head coach, Frank Reich, got bagged 11 games into the season. Not exactly an ideal environment for development.
But just look at the per-game averages from Nov. 24 to the end of the 2024 season and tell me which QB you’d rather have.
Which QB do you want?
| Pass Att. | Comp. | Pass Yds. | Pass TDs | Int. | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Fantasy PPG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
QB A |
28.2 |
17.67 |
183.2 |
1.3 |
0.83 |
9.83 |
0 |
11.64 |
|
QB B |
33 |
20.29 |
226.1 |
1.6 |
0.43 |
25.4 |
0.71 |
20.73 |
(Information is from TruMedia)
Given my stance, you can probably guess that B is Bryce Young. Stroud sat out most of Week 18, which depletes those averages, but I’d still lean toward Young. I think we’ve yet to see Young’s best, and I’d bet the Panthers give him more weapons in 2025.
Jake: You likely know I’m as big of a Bryce Young apologist as anyone. However, while I lean toward neither Stroud nor Young reaching the Top 12, I’d take Stroud.
Yes, Young’s Weeks 13-17 run was 10th best in FPPG, but it came with something I see as unsustainable. Young had three rushing touchdowns in five games (five in six games if you include Week 18), and while that’s nice to see, Young isn’t going to turn into Josh Allen. Young can be early-career Dak Prescott (300-ish yards and 6 TDs, rushing), but that is likely his ceiling given Young’s limited rushing upside.
Let’s stick with Prescott. The Cowboys QB’s first three seasons saw him average mid-3,000 passing yards, 22 TDs and around 17 FPPG with a peak of 17.9. That FPPG mark is still a fringe QB1, and again, I see that as Young’s ceiling.
With Stroud, everything possible went wrong: the offensive line was trash, Nico Collins missed time, Stefon Diggs played eight games, and Tank Dell had to be the No. 1 for a time. Not to mention, Dell isn’t equipped for that, plus he had his season cut short.
So, maybe it’s a bit of wish-casting to assume the Texans will be better (Collins 100% for the season, OL help, a new No. 2 WR, etc.) in 2025. Nevertheless, Stroud’s rookie season was already a Top 10 season, he’s a much better pocket passer, and Stroud will still chip in 200-ish yards and 2-3 TDs on the ground. If forced to choose, I see Stroud as the more likely QB1, getting back to 4,000+ passing yards and hitting a new high in touchdowns (which is a mere 24) during a better 2025 season.
Jess: I’m going Stroud, based partially on eye test and situation. He’s typically comfortable in the pocket and a better passer. I also think the Texans are a better organization that will continue to build around him.
Mike mentioned Young’s organizational inconsistency and what could happen with a cemented head coach in Dave Canales, but Stroud already has consistency and DeMeco Ryans. The Texans’ offensive line needs to be addressed in the offseason after giving up 180 pressures and 33 sacks on 663 pass plays (22nd-ranked 83.9 Pro Football Focus pass-blocking efficiency rating). A better O-line, a healthy Nico Collins plus a No. 2 in Diggs or acquired elsewhere with Dell as No. 3, and he’s set. I think he returns to 2023 form in 2025, but if we’re talking Top 12, he’s on the edge, and Young doesn’t make the cut.
Brandon: I was recently corresponding with The Athletic’s Carolina Panthers writer Joe Person about a story he was doing on Young and in that process, he alerted me to some impressive stat splits compiled by the 2023 No. 1 overall NFL draft pick over his final 10 games of this season.
After Young returned to his starter role in Week 8, he delivered the sixth-best passer rating (83.7) and was tied with Joe Burrow for the most big time throws (26) in that 10-game span from Weeks 8-18 (stats from PFF). That finish is just another feather in the cap of Young’s head coach, the QB-whispering Dave Canales — he’s credited with aiding the late-career emergence of Geno Smith in Seattle and the mid-career resurgence of Baker Mayfield in Tampa.
On a per-game basis, Young was Stroud’s equal in fantasy this season, and I trust that Canales will continue to hone Young’s craft as a passer. Add in Young’s higher ceiling as a rusher, and I can get on board with Young besting Stroud in fantasy football 2025. But I’ll stop short of ranking him among my Top 12 quarterbacks for 2025 unless the offseason includes substantial investment in his offensive line and receiving corps.
(Top photo of Anthony Richardson: Luke Hales / Getty Images)
