Champions League final group matches: Our writers pick the one game out of 18 they'll be watching tomorrow

Whatever your views on the Champions League’s new format this season, there can be little doubt it has set us up for a dramatic final round of league-phase games.

Tomorrow, all 36 competing clubs play at the same kick-off time (8pm GMT, 3pm ET), with the 18 matches determining which teams finish in the top eight and so qualify automatically for the round of 16 and which come between ninth and 24th to enter a round of two-leg play-offs.

Leaders Liverpool and second-placed Barcelona are assured of a top-eight spot with a match to spare and the bottom nine teams are already eliminated, but there is plenty still to be decided, with the sides from seventh to 18th positions separated by only two points.

As it stands, Manchester City will be eliminated. Yes, you read that right. Pep Guardiola’s men have only eight points from their first seven games so sit 25th. A home win against Belgian side Club Bruges will take them through to next month’s play-offs but anything less and the competition’s 2020-21 runners-up and 2022-23 champions will be out of European football for this season.

Following all 18 matches properly is an impossible job — though we have given our Tim Spiers that task and you can read about how he gets on later this week — so we’ve asked some of his colleagues from across Europe to highlight the game they will be focusing on tomorrow, and tell us why.


Jack Lang: Both of these sides are guaranteed at least a place in the play-off round, but what this game lacks in peril it makes up for in novelty value. Brest, for the avoidance of doubt, are a tiny club, more accustomed to France’s third division than the Champions League. They have no real star players. Their front-of-shirt sponsor is a local yoghurt producer. Their stadium is so small and outmoded, they have had to play their Champions League home games over an hour’s drive away in Guingamp — itself little more than a village.

Little wonder, then, that the visit of Real Madrid, the grand old dames of European football, has been circled in the French football calendar for months. After the league-phase draw was made in August, most of their fans probably expected it to be the final game of their European adventure, a golden sign-off. Instead, Brest — the great overachievers of the competition so far — will start the match above Madrid, the competition’s reigning champions and 15-times winners, in the table, and with a genuine chance of securing a top-eight finish.

Will David stick it to Goliath? I’ll certainly be watching to find out.

 


Manchester City v Club Brugge

Sam Lee: This one does not really need an introduction, but here goes: if City do not win, they will be out of the 2024-25 Champions League, and European football altogether for this season as the new format has done away with the previous safety net of falling into the Europa League.

City have struggled over recent months and have given up leads in three of their past four European matches: from 1-0 up they lost 4-1 at Lisbon’s Sporting CP, having been 3-0 in front, they drew 3-3 with Dutch visitors Feyenoord and last week their 2-0 advantage at Paris Saint-Germain became a 4-2 defeat.

There is still an expectation that City will beat Club Brugge at the Etihad Stadium, but the Belgian side are unbeaten in 20 matches across all competitions going back to October and given the struggles of the four-in-a-row Premier League champions, even when leading in matches, nothing can be taken for granted.

The Bruges-based visitors need a result to secure their own place in the play-off round: if City do win this game, they will leapfrog tomorrow’s opponents on goal difference. That means a draw would be enough for Club Brugge to go through, but not enough for City to do so.

This could turn into an old-fashioned Etihad procession, but there is a real chance it could be a lot more complicated for City.


Stuttgart v Paris Saint-Germain

Liam Tharme: The great Parisian jailbreak is happening again. Last season, they scraped their way out of the Champions League’s ‘Group of Death’ as runners-up (with two wins and eight points, the same as third-placed Milan). A comeback win from 2-0 down at home to Manchester City last week finally has PSG in the top 24 this time around (22nd) with a game to go.

They and German hosts Stuttgart (24th) are level on points (10), with identical records (three wins, three defeats, one draw), so a positive result tomorrow will take the winners through and likely eliminate the losers, while a draw might not be enough for either to advance. The two teams are flying in their domestic leagues, with PSG 10 points clear at the top and still unbeaten after 19 games in Ligue 1 and Stuttgart winning six of their past nine matches to sit fourth in the Bundesliga.

Replicating that form on the continental stage has been tough: PSG have lost five of nine away European games under Luis Enrique over the past two seasons.

Expect a Stuttgart 4-4-2 versus PSG’s 4-3-3, and two teams who like to keep possession means something has to give. PSG made the semi-finals last season, whereas Stuttgart are in the Champions League for the first time since 2009-10, so having the underdogs at home makes for an occasion as well as a game.

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James Horncastle: Juventus, like four of the teams in the Champions League’s current top eight, have lost only once in their first seven matches but, as has been the case for them domestically in Serie A, too many draws (16 in all competitions from their 31 games) means they are lagging behind in 17th spot. Last Tuesday’s lacklustre 0-0 at Club Brugge guaranteed the Italian side a play-off place and while a top-eight finish is still not mathematically impossible, it is improbable.

For Juventus’ best-case scenario to happen, they need to beat Portugal’s Benfica in Turin and cross their fingers that 10 of the surpassable teams ahead of them fail to match their result. The chance of that occurring, per data giant Opta, is 0.8 per cent, so a more realistic aim is to improve their position enough to be among the seeds for those play-offs next month.

Level on points with Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, an inferior goal difference is what is, for now, stopping Juventus from having the advantage of a decisive second leg at their Allianz Stadium home in the competition’s February survival series.

Benfica, who lost 5-4 at home to Barcelona in a Champions League classic last week, are 21st. They trail Juventus by a couple of points and cannot be sure of a place in the play-offs. Bruno Lage’s side have a 16.4 per cent chance of elimination and teams such as Manchester City lurk in their rear-view mirror.

The Lisbon side do, however, love a trip to Turin. They won 2-1 on their previous visit in this competition’s 2022-23 group phase, and stopped Juventus from reaching a home final in the 2013-14 Europa League, a goalless semi-final second leg in northern Italy sending them through instead, 2-1 on aggregate.


Seb Stafford-Bloor: The case for this game is simple: it matters. Eighth-placed Leverkusen almost certainly have to win to advance automatically. But the sub-plot is that they have never been quite themselves in Europe. Even last season, when they were far too good for everyone in Germany, there were wobbles even before they were ambushed by a brilliant Atalanta performance in the Europa League final.

So this is still a proving ground for Xabi Alonso and his team. The defeat from 1-0 up against Atletico Madrid last week was not good, especially considering they enjoyed a man advantage for 65 minutes, and there’s just the sense that this team’s belief does not travel that well. Let’s see. But that curiosity makes them a natural draw for the knockout rounds and, by implication, makes this match really watchable.

Looking at the clubs who could fall (or climb) into the play-offs, among them Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid and Manchester City, that stage really is best avoided. There’s pressure here.


Jacob Tanswell: It is a showdown that has, like Manchester United v Rangers in the Europa League last Thursday, already been given the title of ‘The Battle of Britain’.

Aston Villa of the Premier League will meet Scottish champions Celtic for the first time in both clubs’ history and with everything to play for.

Following defeat by Monaco last Tuesday, Unai Emery conceded Villa’s hopes of finishing in the top eight and bypassing the first knockout round had vanished, yet later results in that set of matches went their way. Consequently, ninth-placed Villa only need to beat Celtic and have one of the six catchable teams above them drop points.

Celtic, meanwhile, are 18th and all options are possible: elimination, a top 24 finish and the play-offs and, improbably, qualifying in the top eight. It will be fraught, tetchy, and a tie that has been hotly anticipated ever since the league-phase draw in August.

Villa Park has already hosted some of the most memorable fixtures of this year’s competition and this game will surely be another one.


Barcelona v Atalanta

Thom Harris: There may not be the most out of the 18 ties riding on this one — Barcelona are relying on a Liverpool slip-up at PSV if they are to claim top spot, Atalanta need a win to keep a top-eight finish in their own hands — but this is a meeting of two of the most entertaining teams in Europe this season.

Across their respective domestic leagues, their 43 games have seen a combined average of 3.6 goals, and given Barcelona’s recent defensive wobbles and Atalanta having the pace and trickery to trouble their hosts’ high line, I’m expecting slick football and a high-scoring game.


Bayern Munich v Slovan Bratislava

Anantaajith Raghuraman: Given the importance of goal difference, Bayern Munich will be pleased to welcome the league phase’s worst defence (24 goals conceded) to the Allianz Arena.

Bayern will be after a goal-heavy win against a Slovan side who have lost seven out of seven so far, making this a potentially entertaining game amid the final-day tension around the league.

A victory of that nature, combined with at least one of Feyenoord and Lille dropping points (which is certain as they play each other tomorrow in northern France), Monaco failing to win away against Inter and Brest holding visitors Real Madrid to a slender win at the maximum, could see Bayern rise several places and potentially even sneak into the top eight based on how Bayer Leverkusen and Aston Villa perform against Sparta Prague and Celtic respectively.

Bayern could be a key factor in the table undergoing multiple shuffles throughout Wednesday’s matches, so it will be worth keeping an eye on how they do in their first game against Slovakian opposition since sweeping Dunajska Streda aside 5-1 on aggregate in the second round of the 1988-89 UEFA Cup (today’s Europa League).


Harry Kane and Bayern lost 3-0 at Dutch side Feyenoord last week (John Thys/AFP via Getty Images)

Art de Roche: Arsenal’s qualification for the top eight is all but secured. As a result, there will be much less big-picture jeopardy in this trip to Catalonia, but a win will be essential for their seeding in March’s round of 16.

The highest-ranked teams in the league phase cannot be drawn against each other until the latter stages of the knockout rounds. The teams placed first and second (currently Liverpool and Barcelona) will not be able to face each other until the final itself, while those in third and fourth (Arsenal and Inter) cannot meet those finishing first and second until the semis.

Arsenal have three points of grace and a goal difference at least six better than teams able to match their current points tally (16, with a +12 goal difference). To put themselves in as good a position as possible for the knockouts, however, do not be surprised to see Mikel Arteta name a strong squad on his return home to Spain and go for another win in Europe.


PSV v Liverpool

James Pearce: Welcome to the Cody Gakpo derby.

You’ve got the in-form Netherlands attacker going back to Philips Stadion for the first time since he left PSV for Anfield in the 2023 winter transfer window. The reception is likely to be less welcoming for Liverpool head coach Arne Slot, who will also be on familiar ground having managed fellow Dutch side Feyenoord for three seasons before succeeding Jurgen Klopp last summer.

OK, cards on the table, there’s much greater jeopardy and drama to be had elsewhere on the league phase’s final matchday (see above).

Liverpool, who have won seven out of seven, have already secured a top-eight finish, which means they will bypass February’s play-off round. They just need a point in Eindhoven to be guaranteed top spot, but that’s not particularly important because — regardless of whether they end up first or second — they will still face one of the teams who finish between 15th and 18th in the last 16.

The Dutch champions have more to play for. Peter Bosz’s side, who are 11th on 13 points, are assured of a place in the play-offs but could yet make the top eight if they win here and other results go their way.

With Ibrahima Konate and Alexis Mac Allister both one booking away from a European suspension, it would be a surprise if they were risked tomorrow and Slot is likely to make changes with an eye on the Premier League title race.

(Top photos: Getty Images)

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