Exactly seven weeks from today, the NCAA Tournament will begin, and before the stretch run to Selection Sunday begins, I have again looked into my crystal ball to fill you in on the champ, dangerous bubble teams and mid-majors to watch.
When trying to predict future NCAA Tournament success, particularly the national champion, history is always a good indicator.
Did you know that since the NCAA Tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only four coaches (Steve Fisher, Tubby Smith, Kevin Ollie and Dan Hurley) have ever won the national championship without previously appearing in an Elite Eight? Or that since the field expanded to 64, every national champ but three (UConn in 2014, Syracuse in 2003 and Kansas in 1988) has had at least three future NBA players on the roster? On average, the eventual champ has 4.9 future NBA players. Or that 25 of the 27 national champs since 1997 finished in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy? That 2014 UConn team was an outlier in all three categories.
These are the data points I usually use when filling out my bracket. The process still involves some guesses and qualifiers, but they are good guidelines to follow.
Now, let’s try to predict the future.
One of these three will win the national title
In last year’s midseason check-in, I listed six possible champs. I’m getting greedy this year. Let’s see if I can nail it with just three picks using the above criteria.
Auburn: Head coach Bruce Pearl has been to a Final Four (2019), has at least three pros — I’ll bet on three of Johni Broome, Tahaad Pettiford, Chad Baker-Mazara or Miles Kelly making it — and is running the best offense in college hoops while sitting 11th in defensive efficiency. The Tigers have been the best team in the sport and have plenty of motivation to lock in right away in March after losing to Yale in the first round last year. Duke is No. 1 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100); three of the last 12 national champions were No. 1 in that metric on Jan. 28.
Duke: Jon Scheyer made an Elite Eight for the first time last year and has the most talented roster in the country, led by presumptive No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg. The Blue Devils have been dominant on both ends of the floor this season, and there are only two reasons to doubt them: youth and the ability to win close games. Duke has struggled to execute down the stretch in its two losses — neutral-floor games against Kentucky and Kansas — but this team has gotten better on the offensive end since those setbacks, and Flagg’s game has continued to grow.
Alabama: My preseason No. 1 team is starting to hit its stride, scoring 100-plus in four of its last eight games. Nate Oats has a core of contributors, led by star guard Mark Sears, who made the Final Four last year and played their best defense in the NCAA Tournament. This group currently ranks 43rd in defensive efficiency, but it’s ahead of last year’s team on this date (its defense ranked 66th) and there’s a recent history of future champs whose elite offenses were ahead of their defenses in late January.
Championship defenses that peaked late
| Jan. 28 AdjO rank | EOS AdjO rank | Jan. 28 AdjD rank | EOS AdjD rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
UConn (2024) |
3 |
1 |
28 |
4 |
|
Kansas (2022) |
3 |
6 |
49 |
17 |
|
Villanova (2018) |
1 |
1 |
27 |
11 |
|
Duke (2015) |
4 |
3 |
40 |
11 |
Oats has two freshmen I’d bet on making the NBA (Labaron Philon and Derrion Reid) and then a good number of guys who are probably candidates for two-way contracts. But even a cup of coffee counts when it comes to the “future NBA players” statistic, and this is one of the deepest rosters in the country. I’m betting the Tide hit the threshold.
Other title contenders I wouldn’t be shocked to see win it
Iowa State: The Cyclones are elite on both ends — ranking 12th in adjusted offense and sixth in adjusted defense — and lost to Auburn on a buzzer-beating tip-in at the Maui Invitational. T.J. Otzelberger hasn’t made an Elite Eight, but this group made the Sweet 16 last season. The Cyclones might not pass the NBA test, but they are a great college team and the epitome of the sum being greater than the parts.
Houston: Houston has the second-best defense in college basketball and is one of the best 3-point shooting teams around. Kelvin Sampson just keeps building contenders. In 2021, Houston made the Final Four and lost to Baylor; Sampson will tell you that group was simply out-talented. But since then, Sampson has felt like he had a chance every year, and his teams have made the second weekend in four consecutive tournaments. This is another team that might not pass the NBA test, but the Cougars are experienced and know exactly how their coach wants them to play.
Florida: The Gators have one of the best perimeter groups in the country with seniors Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard. Their bigs are elite offensive rebounders and rim protectors who do not care what their numbers are and simply do their job. This is another team in which everyone understands their role. Florida’s biggest weakness is guarding elite low-post scorers, which showed up in their only two losses this season to Kentucky and Missouri. So matchups could be important for the Gators once March arrives. The champion criterion working against Florida: Coach Todd Golden has never made it out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Tennessee: Tennessee is following the same formula it rode to the Elite Eight a year ago: an elite defense and a transfer wing who can carry the offense. Last year the transfer was Northern Colorado’s Dalton Knecht; this year it is North Florida’s Chaz Lanier. I’m not quite as trusting of Lanier’s ability to carry this team on a deeper run. Lanier is not as dynamic a scorer as Knecht, and he relies more on the 3. My concern with the Vols is what will happen when Lanier has an off night. In Tennessee’s worst loss this season, a 73-43 drubbing at Florida, Lanier went 3 of 16 from the field.
Walter Clayton and the rest of Florida’s backcourt have the Gators in the thick of the SEC race. (Matt Pendleton / Imagn Images)
Wild cards
Illinois: Brad Underwood has one of the most talented rosters in the country, led by future lottery pick Kasparas Jakucionis. The predictive metrics like the Illini, but their win-loss record (14-6) is going to leave them with a lower seed. Usually when teams not on the top two lines win the NCAA Tournament, the elite tier is not as strong. The exception that comes to mind is 1997, when Arizona famously beat three No. 1 seeds on its way to the title. The Wildcats lost nine games that season but had as much talent as the teams they beat in the tournament. And if you’re looking for a team that could do something similar this year, it’s the Illini.
Kentucky: The Wildcats are 5-1 against teams that were ranked in the top 15 of the AP poll at the time of the game, including impressive wins against Duke and Florida. Offensively, they have firepower from every position and are one of the hardest teams to guard. Of course, history isn’t on their side: Mark Pope has never made it out of the first round, I’m not sure they’ll pass the pro test and their defense is lacking — ranking 81st. But this is a team capable of beating anyone on a given night, and its roles are clearly defined and accepted.
Michigan: The Wolverines have the best front court in the country with Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, and opponents have struggled to figure out how in the heck you guard a four-five ball screen run by two seven-footers. Wolf is similar to Flagg in that he can initiate offense, he scores from all three levels and he’s switchable defensively. The Wolverines are also one of the best shooting teams in the country, ranking fourth in effective-field goal percentage. If they ever get their turnover issues figured out, they have what it takes to go on a run.
Bubble-bound but dangerous
Gonzaga: The Zags have been a top-five seed in seven consecutive tournaments, but this year’s team has fallen out of the Top 25 and is nearing bubble territory at 15-6 and second place in the WCC. But the predictive metrics still love Gonzaga, currently No. 13 at KenPom, in part because the losses have been close ones: three in overtime and the other three by a combined 13 points. This is still a team with four starters back from last year’s Sweet 16 run, and that group started slow but finished strong. Ryan Nembhard is one of the best point guards in the country, and Graham Ike is one of the best low-post scorers. The offense is still elite — ranking fifth in adjusted efficiency at KenPom — and Mark Few’s defense usually performs better late. High seeds will hope Gonzaga ends up in somebody else’s region.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are 12-8, but they have two of the most impressive performances anywhere this season: an 85-65 blowout of Kentucky in the CBS Sports Classic and a win last week at Mackey Arena, where Purdue had not lost in the last two seasons. The Buckeyes have one of the toughest point guards to match up with in college hoops in Bruce Thornton, a fire hydrant at 6-2 and 215 pounds, plus one of college basketball’s best shooters (freshman John Mobley) and a wing in Micah Parrish who has played in a Final Four. The bigs are inconsistent but talented enough to beat you when they’re on.
BYU: Egor Demin is a 6-foot-9 point guard with awesome vision who will be a lottery pick, and he’s surrounded by a bunch of shooters and rim-rolling bigs. Demin and BYU have not been as good as I expected they’d be, but head coach Kevin Young, who came from the Phoenix Suns staff, is still in his first year figuring out the college game. The Cougars have won their last two Big 12 games by a combined 44 points, and it appears they’re starting to figure it out. They have work to do resume-wise — they’re 0-3 in Quad 1 games — but this is one of the most talented rosters currently sitting outside the Top 25.
UConn: Yes, the defending back-to-back champs could be on the bubble. They’re currently No. 36 in the NET rankings and one of only two teams in the top 40 with a Quad 3 loss. UConn has also lost three of its last five, but those three came without freshman Liam McNeeley, who has been out with a high ankle sprain. Before McNeeley’s injury, the Huskies had the third-best offense in college hoops, per Torvik. Dan Hurley still runs some of the hardest actions to guard in the country, and he has a point guard in Hassan Diarra who has played a part in each of the last two national titles. The defense is a problem — 130th in adjusted efficiency — but Hurley is pretty good coaching on that end, too. If the Huskies ever figure that out, they’ll be dangerous again. And even if they don’t, just their offense makes them scary in a single-elimination tourney.
The Huskies have struggled of late but can’t be counted out in March. (Sam Greene / The Enquirer / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
Mid-majors who could make a run
Drake: First-year coach Ben McCollum, who won four national titles at the Division II level, is at his best in March, and he brought along four of his Northwest Missouri State players who know his formula. The Bulldogs own three wins over high-majors this year. Two of those (Miami and Kansas State) haven’t aged well, but at one (Vanderbilt) has. The Bulldogs take great shots and make it difficult for you to do the same. And Bennett Stirtz (17.7 ppg, 6.5 apg, 2.6 spg) is one of the best mid-major stars in the country. Bradley, currently a game ahead of Drake for first place in the Missouri Valley, is also a team that could be dangerous. Similar to last season when MVC tournament winner Drake made it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament and MVC regular season champ Indiana State made it to the NIT championship game, this is a league that’s worthy of multiple bids. Don’t hold your breath that the selection committee will agree.
VCU: Ryan Odom made a name for himself by coaching the first No. 16 seed to ever beat a No. 1 at UMBC in 2018. Now Odom leads one of the best mid-major (plus) programs in the country and has far better players. Odom won a huge recruiting war this past offseason when his star guard Max Shulga entered the transfer portal, committed to Villanova and then decided to de-commit and return to VCU. Shulga was one of my favorite guards in the portal, and he has a talented backcourt mate in former Oklahoma guard Joe Bamisile. The Rams have one of the best defenses outside the high-major leagues and have won six straight. Just like the best VCU teams of the past, they thrive on turnovers, forcing opponents to cough it up on 22.2 percent of their possessions.
UC Irvine: Longtime coach Russell Turner has his best defensive team ever, ranking seventh nationally in adjusted defense at KenPom. The last time a mid-major outside of the A-10 or WCC finished in the top 10 in defensive efficiency was Loyola Chicago in 2021. Those Ramblers upset top-seeded Illinois in the Round of 32. The Anteaters have played Cinderella before, knocking off Big 12 champ Kansas State in 2019. That team ranked fifth in effective-field goal percentage defense; this version ranks 11th. League mate UC San Diego, who has won at Utah State, and UC Riverside could also be dangerous if they end up with the Big West’s auto bid.
McNeese: Will Wade is back with his band of castoffs from bigger schools, dominating in the Southland. The Cowboys were within single digits of both Alabama and Mississippi State during the nonconference schedule, and they’ve won eight of their 10 league games by double digits. McNeese is the highest-rated team from the Southland since Stephen F. Austin in 2016. That team, coached by Brad Underwood, upset third-seeded West Virginia and then lost by just one point to Notre Dame in the Round of 32.
(Top photo: Brandon Sumrall / Getty Images)
