A sad sign of the times: Per KenPom’s predictive “thrill score” index, of the 146 Division I games to be played Saturday, the first iteration this season of college hoops’ best rivalry — Duke vs. North Carolina — ranks … 31st.
One spot below Arkansas State at Texas State.
1. Where’s the juice for UNC vs. Duke?
Because this one feels different, even compared with some of the less-anticipated meetings in recent rivalry history.
Some historical context: From the time Mike Krzyzewski was hired up until the 2020-21 season, Duke and North Carolina played exactly 95 times. At least one of the two teams was ranked every single time. And both were ranked in 65 of those contests.
But in the nine games these blue bloods have played since the 2020-21 season — when Duke missed the NCAA Tournament, and the Tar Heels got blown out in the first round in Roy Williams’ last game as head coach — only three have occurred with both teams ranked. Neither team was ranked in four games.
There have still been some all-timers in that stretch — most notably, Krzyzewski’s final home game, plus the rivals’ only NCAA Tournament meeting in the 2022 Final Four — but those feel more like the exception than the norm nowadays.
What does the rivalry’s recent turn tell us about college basketball at large?
For starters, Saturday’s matchup at Duke features two teams on different trajectories. Duke is No. 2 nationally, the winner of 14 straight, with the expected top pick in this summer’s NBA Draft, Cooper Flagg, and is the only team this season to beat the consensus No. 1 team in America, Auburn. The Blue Devils aren’t just legitimate national title contenders; you could argue — and I would — that they’re national title front-runners.
North Carolina — after losing at Pitt on Tuesday — is 13-9 overall, with zero Top 25 wins and losses in three of its past four games. If the NCAA Tournament started today, the Tar Heels would be lucky to be in the First Four. That isn’t to say Hubert Davis’ team is lacking talent — RJ Davis was a consensus All-American last season, and Ian Jackson is a future pro — but one of these things is clearly not like the other. Betting lines haven’t been announced as of this writing, but if I had to guess, the spread for Saturday will probably be larger than the 11.5 points Duke was favored by last weekend at Wake Forest.
And I wouldn’t blame anyone for betting Duke to cover.
The flip side of that is that this rivalry (almost) always delivers, even when it seems like it won’t. Two examples immediately come to mind. First, Feb. 2020, when Duke was ranked seventh and UNC was 10-12 overall, in the midst of its second-worst season of the modern era. Everyone assumed that game would be a slaughter, but it ended up a classic, with Duke needing two buzzer beaters and overtime to win. The reverse is true of Coach K’s final home game, when Duke was ranked fourth and (thought it was) hosting a celebration for the ages. UNC, in Hubert Davis’ debut season, was fighting for its postseason life — and the Tar Heels spoiled the Blue Devils’ party.
Wilder stuff has happened than UNC winning this weekend.
“Doesn’t matter the previous games, whether you’ve won or lost. It doesn’t matter what your record is, what your ranking is. Been on both sides of it, right?” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said Thursday.
But it is impossible to avoid that, beyond one team surging and one slumping, this is a terrible matchup for North Carolina. Duke is the tallest and longest team in the country, per KenPom, and does not have a rotation player under 6 feet 5. UNC, meanwhile, is the shortest high-major team in America, per KenPom, starting three (and recently, four) sub-6-foot-4 guards. Barring the Tar Heels making a ton of 3s — they’re 251st nationally in 3-point percentage, at 32.1 percent — it’s a tough reality to see coming.
That discrepancy has made for a relatively juiceless lead-in. But it’s also a sign of the times. Rivalries are predicated on laundry and history — two things that have never been as unimportant as they are in modern college athletics. It’s unfortunate, but it’s also reality.
Relevance today is predicated on performance: Current performance, not past.
2. SEC tiers of trust
I’m not sure I totally agree with ESPN’s Jay Bilas — who said this week that winning the SEC tournament will be harder than winning March Madness — but I understand his thought. You’re guaranteed to have to go through at least two, if not more, ranked foes in sequential days to come out on top of America’s toughest conference. Fair enough.
And while we definitely don’t have true separation in the SEC yet, this week yielded a number of informative results, which have started to make clear who the real contenders are and who just needs to win enough games to go dancing. My personal league rankings don’t match up with the conference standings (yet), but there are some I feel better — and worse — about after this week:
1a. Auburn: Shocker. The Tigers’ ability to win without Johni Broome only validated my belief they’re one of the two teams (Duke being the other) with the best chance to cut down the nets in April. Oh, and Broome’s barely missed a beat since returning, even on one ankle.
1b. Alabama: Mississippi State gave the Crimson Tide all they could handle, and, frankly, had every opportunity to win Wednesday night. But if Chris Youngblood — who missed Bama’s first nine games with an ankle injury — is going to shoot it like this, then I’m not sure what defenses are supposed to do against Nate Oats’ team. Youngblood had a season-high 23 vs. the Bulldogs, canning seven of his 10 3-point attempts. Alabama as a team is still shooting only 33.2 percent from deep, a sub-175 mark nationally, but a guy who has topped 40 percent from 3 the past three seasons may be the missing ingredient. Auburn’s biggest title challenger, easily. The season finale in Auburn likely decides the league winner.
2. Florida: I’ve written about Florida’s guard triumvirate a few times, but the real reason I’m in on the Gators — especially as it relates to making an NCAA Tournament run — is their offensive rebounding. UF is the third-best offensive rebounding team in America, per KenPom, a statistic which historically has translated to postseason success. Five of the past seven national champions ranked top 50 in offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom. Florida’s current rate — gobbling 41.2 percent of its own misses — is higher than all but one of those champions, 2017 North Carolina (41.3 percent).
3. Kentucky: I know, I know. Since conference play began, per Bart Torvik, UK’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranking is a dire 133rd nationally. But at Tennessee — hardly an offensive juggernaut, but still a top-35 offense nationally — the Cats looked like they were figuring some things out, and that was without star point guard Lamont Butler. (Sshhh, ignore Tennessee taking 45 3-pointers.) The San Diego State transfer will obviously provide a lift on that end when he returns, but in the meantime, I’ve got confidence in Mark Pope and this team’s offense to handle a lighter immediate slate. Moreover, this team is tested; the victory over Tennessee was Kentucky’s sixth this season vs. AP top-15 opponents, which ties a program record.
Side note: Point Amari Williams is fun. This pass isn’t perfect, but how many 6-foot-10, 260-pound dudes are even attempting this play?
4. Missouri: Since conference play began, per Bart Torvik, the Tigers are the 12th-best team in America, and one of only seven teams with a top-20 adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking. (The other six? Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Michigan State, Louisville and Wisconsin.) That’s largely because Dennis Gates’ team lives at the free-throw line — Mizzou is second nationally and tops among high-major teams in free-throw attempt rate, per KenPom — and has attempted at least 25 free throws in all but one conference game. (Hang the banner, Arkansas, for holding the Tigers to “only” 19 attempts from the stripe.) I’m unsure if Caleb Grill’s career-best 3-point shooting will hold up another six weeks, but it’s working for now.
5. Tennessee: Color me skeptical of the Vols offense, especially since conference play began; what looks like a top-35 offense for the season has slumped to 75th nationally since SEC play started, and it’s not hard to see why. Chaz Lanier has been a nice catch-and-shoot guy, but his efficiency is starting to fall off a cliff, which has in turn meant way too much offensive responsibility on Zakai Zeigler, whose legs are starting to look rubbery. The defense will still choke you out, but losses in three of four games have been revealing.
Beyond those six, I also like Ole Miss, Mississippi State — shout out Josh Hubbard for almost single-handedly dragging the Bulldogs past Alabama this week — and Vandy. But I’m good on Texas A&M.
3. Ace Bailey’s best Klay Thompson impersonation
Bailey, one half of Rutgers’ stud freshman duo, had easily his best college game Wednesday vs. Northwestern: 37 points, six rebounds and three blocks. That effort made him the first freshman since Trae Young in 2017-18 to have multiple 35-point games on the road in a season. Now, Rutgers isn’t going to make the NCAA Tournament — the Scarlet Knights are 11-10 overall, with losses to Kennesaw State and Princeton — which means Bailey maybe hasn’t registered in the national consciousness like he should, but performances like this week’s deserve some attention anyway.
The most unreal part of Bailey’s performance? It’s not that the 6-foot-10 wing had 24 of those points at the half. It’s that, of Bailey’s 13 made baskets, only one required more than two dribbles — when he used four to back a defender down into the post. Otherwise? Nine of his makes came without ever dribbling the ball! It was as reminiscent of Klay Thompson’s 60-point, 11-dribble game as you’ll ever see at the college level.
Oh, and one more thing: Of those nine non-dribble makes, five were 3-pointers.
Early on, Bailey used his jab step to create enough space:
Then he mixed in a shimmy along with the jab step:
And right before halftime, he made a catch-and-shoot trey that only future pros would even attempt:
But maybe my favorite basket of his all night? His final one, in which he fought for defensive positioning near the right corner, took two dribbles, drop-stepped toward the baseline, and then hit a righty hook over two defenders:
Bailey’s scoring ability is basically the only real way he impacts games. (He has 16 assists in 643 minutes played, which, LOL.) But you can understand why NBA evaluators are drooling over a freak athlete who can score like that despite a ridiculously difficult shot diet.
4. Coach of the Year front-runners are …
Typically the folks whose teams have overperformed most relative to expectations. (Hello, Jerome Tang from two seasons ago!) But I don’t think that’s totally fair, especially when roster construction and recruiting (and retention) are as difficult as ever. If you can actually assemble a team with stupid talent, you deserve to be recognized for getting everyone on board. Which is why the five coaches I currently have leading the race are those who embody both archetypes:
1. Bruce Pearl: I, and most national observers, thought Auburn would be good. But consensus No. 1 team with a program-best 19-1 start good? Uh, no. Pearl has mined the Division II and mid-major levels for many of his star players — including Broome, who came from Morehead State — and then developed them into SEC stalwarts.
2. Jon Scheyer: “You can’t rely on freshmen anymore!” Someone forgot to tell Scheyer that, apparently, because the 37-year-old has built arguably the most talent rich roster in America while sticking to his guns. Landing Flagg was one thing; letting five former five- and four-star recruits leave via the transfer portal to bring in role players around Flagg? That’s a plan on a different level. Duke has a chance to become the first ACC team since 1999 Duke to go undefeated in league play — and if it does, who else deserves this more than the guy who built the roster?
3. Pat Kelsey: Kelsey inherited a Louisville program fresh off its worst two seasons in modern history, had to sign an entirely new roster in a matter of weeks, incurred season-ending injuries to his most versatile forward (Kasean Pryor) and backup point guard (Koren Johnson) and yet, the Cards have won 10 straight to re-enter the Top 25. At this rate, UL doesn’t just look NCAA Tournament-bound; it looks like a team you don’t want to face when it gets there.
4. Dennis Gates: Missouri finished 0-18 in the SEC last season, inspiring doubt about Gates’ long-term future in Columbia. All he’s done is rebuild on the fly and immediately turn the Tigers back into conference contenders. Mizzou is 16-4 overall — already twice as many wins as it had last season — with victories over Kansas and at Florida. Buy stock now.
5. Darian DeVries: DeVries has been exactly what West Virginia needed in the aftermath of Bob Huggins’ messy exit. DeVries’ son, Tucker, was supposed to be the star of his debut team in Morgantown, until a shoulder injury derailed that plan after eight games — but the Mountaineers haven’t fallen off, looking every bit an NCAA Tournament team despite losing three straight. Also credit DeVries for bringing in arguably the best transfer in the country, point guard Javon Small. With a manageable Big 12 schedule remaining, it’s not inconceivable that WVU cracks the 20-win threshold for the first time in five seasons.
Also considered: TJ Otzelberger, Iowa State; Brad Underwood, Illinois; Tom Izzo, Michigan State; and Mark Pope, Kentucky.
(Photo of Duke’s Cooper Flagg and teammates: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
