NHL Power Rankings: The race at the top gets tighter, Senators make a charge

For the first time ever — and possibly last, given how long it took — the NHL Power Rankings are a one-person endeavor.

Indeed, Dom Luszczyszyn has the week off due to good behavior. Direct your related complaints and compliments to the appropriate party.

1. Washington Capitals, 34-11-6

Last week: 1

Last week, we wondered whether the Capitals’ declining success at five-on-five could start to bite them. Naturally, they went out and took care of business, posting a plus-3 goal differential and controlling about 70 percent of the expected goals, best in the league this week. Sure, they went 1-1-1, but whatever. They did enough to hang on to the big prize.

On the Alex Ovechkin front, a goal against Ottawa on Thursday puts him 19 away from breaking Wayne Gretzky’s record. Dom currently gives him a 12-percent chance to do it this season, but one big game would make that number jump quite a bit.

2. Edmonton Oilers, 36-14-3

Last week: 2

The last time the Oilers lost three games in a row was the first three games of the season. That’s not to say they don’t have off nights — Thursday in Detroit was one of them — but they’re good at squeezing out points with their B-game, and there’s too much talent for them to stay in the tank all that long.

3. Winnipeg Jets, 36-14-3

Last week: 3

On and off over the course of the season, we’ve wondered whether the Jets rely too much on their power play. Lately, that hasn’t been the case; the Jets are 8-2-0 in their last 10 and scoring more five-on-five goals per 60 than all but two teams — the Oilers and, of course, the Kraken.

4. Carolina Hurricanes, 32-16-4

Last week: 5

In Mikko Rantanen’s first three games with the Hurricanes, they’ve won his five-on-five minutes 3-0 — he scored against the Blackhawks on Thursday — and generated tons of chances. The reviews are in, and they are positive.

While we’re sharing posts about the Canes, this blew my mind. I double-checked, and it’s true.

5. Dallas Stars, 29-17-1

Last week: 6

If you kept your seat on the Wyatt Johnston hype train, congratulations. His start was ugly, but since Nov. 20, he’s 21st in the league in points (35) and 25th in points per 60 (3.25). The latter is a little worse than Sidney Crosby and a little better than Jack Eichel and Sebastian Aho. All is well, Stars fans! Stop watching replays of Mark Stone going yard-sale into Miro Heiskanen’s knee ligaments!

Regarding that, by the way, coach Pete DeBoer told Dallas’ 96.7 KTCK that he didn’t believe Heiskanen’s injury was “year-ending,” that he believes “there is gonna be a surgery” and that he hopes Heiskanen is back in 8-12 weeks. Definitely could be worse, definitely could be better.

6. Vegas Golden Knights, 31-15-6

Last week: 4

Vegas has hit the skids a bit, banking just nine of 24 possible points in their last 12 games. In that stretch, they’ve been outscored 26-17 at five-on-five for a minus-11 goal differential, third-worst in the NHL. Of those 17 goals, Tomas Hertl and Jack Eichel have combined for eight. Doesn’t leave much for the rest of the team.

7. Minnesota Wild, 31-17-4

Last week: 9

It wasn’t the most memorable Wild goaltending performance of the week — that honor goes to Marc-Andre Fleury — but Filip Gustavsson’s 32-save win over the Maple Leafs might have been the most important. He’d been shaky, basically, since shutting out Carolina on Jan. 4. It’ll be a whole lot easier for the Wild to tread water without Kirill Kaprizov if Gutavsson gives them more of the same.

8. Florida Panthers, 30-19-3

Last week: 10

We keep waiting for the Panthers to truly lock back in, and it hasn’t happened — they spent another week alternating wins and losses. Good stuff is happening under the hood, though. They’re fifth in the NHL in both actual and expected goals percentage since Jan. 1, and they’ve got a soft stretch of their schedule on the way.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs, 30-19-2

Last week: 7

Five straight wins, three straight losses, three straight wins, three straight losses — when the Leafs do something, they do it for a while. Mirtle called their recent stretch “ugly hockey,” and I’m not inclined to disagree. That’s life without quality forward depth.

10. Columbus Blue Jackets, 25-19-7

Last week: 15

Amazing stat from Porty after Columbus’ overtime win against the Golden Knights on Thursday night.

Part of the reason that’s true: Elvis Merzlikins has stabilized a bit over the last month. Since Dec. 19, he’s ninth in the league in goals saved above expected (9.03) with a .910 save percentage, and he was outstanding against the Golden Knights.

11. Los Angeles Kings, 26-17-6

Last week: 8

The Kings are leaking oil. They’ve lost four straight (with a minus-10 goal differential) and eight of 10. Not quite as bad as last January, when they went 3-7-5, but a bad sign all the same. Getting Drew Doughty is nice, but he’s not driving much offense at this point in his career, and they’ve scored more than two goals exactly once since New Year’s Day.

12. Colorado Avalanche, 29-21-2

Last week: 11

Martin Necas has four points in his first three games with Colorado, and he’s looked good riding shotgun for Nathan MacKinnon; those two, along with Jonathan Drouin, have already created plenty of chances together. If nothing else, there will be mixtape goals.

That said, the Avs are 5-6-2 in their last 13 and haven’t won consecutive games since Jan. 2, and Necas doesn’t help their depth issues down the middle. Playoff team, yes. Actual contender, not right now.

13. Ottawa Senators, 27-20-4

Last week: 20

Senators owner Michael Andlauer explained his rationale for floating the idea that his team could play regular-season games in Quebec City. It made sense, as did the fanbase’s initial freak-out. Time to move on and focus on the fact that, after a 7-2-1 stretch and an OT win over the Capitals, Ottawa is inching up on the top two teams in the Atlantic Division. Let Spartacat enjoy himself.

14. New Jersey Devils, 29-18-6

Last week: 13

Against Philadelphia on Wednesday, the Devils’ centers were Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer, Justin Dowling and Curtis Lazar. There were extenuating circumstances — Nico Hischier is week-to-week with an upper-body injury and Erik Haula (ankle) hasn’t played since Jan. 4 — but still, that gets real ugly in a real hurry. A legit NHL bottom-sixer would go a long way.

15. Tampa Bay Lightning, 27-20-3

Last week: 12

The Lightning beat the Kings 3-0 on Thursday. It was a necessary bit of good news because they’d been heinous in their previous five games, beating only the Blackhawks on a four-game road trip, then losing to the Blackhawks on Tuesday. Some of that was bad luck — they’re too good to shoot seven percent as a team for all that long — but they needed to get the car back on the road.

16. Vancouver Canucks, 23-17-10

Last week: 23

Two options regarding the Canucks; you can either talk about the staggeringly great work we’re seeing from Quinn Hughes, or you can talk about everything else. We’re going with Option A. He’s a defenseman who leads his team in points… by 23; he’s either scored or assisted on 16 of the Canucks’ last 27 goals; he’s on pace to out-produce his brother. Give him the Norris. Give him the Hart, maybe.

GO DEEPER

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17. Detroit Red Wings, 25-21-5

Last week: 22

Marco Kasper’s breakout (12 points in his last 10 games) makes the Red Wings a whole lot more interesting. They needed production from someone on the left wing other than Alex DeBrincat, and Kasper has given them that. He’s a natural center, and Detroit is thin there, too, but they should take what they can get. Kasper sprang Dylan Larkin for a crucial goal in a comeback win over the Oilers on Thursday night.

18. Calgary Flames, 25-18-7

Last week: 16

Thursday’s trade with the Flyers wasn’t all that interesting, but Calgary did improve a bit — Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee are middle-six upgrades at a low cost. Now, would they be upgrades for other teams? Nope. The Flames are 29th in goals per 60 at five-on-five; they’re also in a playoff spot. Might as well try to make it stick.

19. New York Islanders, 23-20-7

Last week: 25

The Islanders spent January forcing everyone to take them seriously, going 9-3-0, finishing the month on a six-game winning streak. By Friday morning, they were sitting four points out of a wild-card spot with games in hand on the teams they were chasing.

Ilya Sorokin, as you’d assume, has been a big part of that, putting up a .938 save percentage in January and saving nearly 10 goals above expected. That has wallpapered over some still-shaky play at five-on-five. We’ll see how the next eight days go, with games against Tampa Bay, Florida, Vegas, Winnipeg and Minnesota.

20. New York Rangers, 24-22-4

Last week: 14

Igor Shesterkin dragged the Rangers back into the wild-card race, and now they’re asking him to keep them in it. In two losses this week, a close one to Colorado and a blowout against Carolina, he’s allowed about four goals more than expected and put up an .813 save percentage. On one hand, expecting his A-game every night is unfair; on the other, their margin for error is too slim to handle much else.

21. Montreal Canadiens, 24-22-4

Last week: 17

The Canadiens played their way into the wild-card discussion, but that’s not a season-long pass. All of a sudden, they’ve managed one point in four games, their coach is wondering about their lack of “juice” and “swagger,” and they’re about to play three West Coast games, followed by two against Eastern Conference contenders. Time to figure out just how serious they are.

22. Boston Bruins, 25-22-6

Last week: 21

Brutal week for the Bruins. Losing 7-2 to the Sabres was bad, and Thursday’s 6-2 meltdown against the Jets might have been worse; the game was tied 2-2 at the second intermission. They’re a point out of a wild-card spot, but it doesn’t feel that way.

23. Utah HC, 21-21-8

Last week: 18

Have we considered naming them the Qualtrics? They’ve won five of their last 18, by the way.

24. St. Louis Blues, 23-24-4

Last week: 19

There’s plenty to be said about Brandon Saad’s choice to terminate the last 1 1/2 seasons of his contract with the Blues — ultimately, though, it’s his life, his money and his business. He’s in demand, of course, because he still can bring something to the right lineup under the right circumstances. A big part of that: His shooting percentage is 9.3, which is unsustainably low for a guy who’s lived in the 15-18 percent range for the last five seasons. If that ticks up, he’ll help in easy minutes on a bottom six.

25. Philadelphia Flyers, 23-24-6

Last week: 24

On Thursday night, ESPN’s cameras caught John Tortorella and Matvei Michkov discussing Philly’s trade for Andrei Kuzmenko. Both of them were very excited.

The exchange actually came right after Michkov failed to cover a shot from the slot that put the Islanders up 1-0 with 9:58 left in the second. He didn’t take another shift. “We’re going to do it the right way with this kid because we think he’s that special,” Tortorella said after the game. “So it’s my job to do that. No matter what happens.” Fair enough.

26. Seattle Kraken, 23-27-3

Last week: 28

Each week, there’s a team or two that briefly looks interested in joining the Western Conference wild-card race. This time, it’s the Kraken, who’ve won six of 11 and outscored opponents 39-34 in the process. Not bad — but five of those wins have come against Pittsburgh, Buffalo and San Jose. Seattle’s remaining opponents also have the fourth-highest points percentage in the league. Do not buy.

27. Anaheim Ducks, 21-24-6

Last week: 29

We’ll believe that John Gibson actually gets traded when the paperwork is filed. Either way, it’s been a while since he’s looked this good; he’s 10th in the league in goals saved above expected per 60 with a .912 save percentage.

28. Pittsburgh Penguins, 21-24-8

Last week: 27

In his last six games, Sidney Crosby has seven points (4G, 3A) and a five-on-five goal share of nearly 60 percent. Have the Penguins lost four of those games? Of course they have! They’re bad! In that same span, nobody else on the roster has scored more than once. It’s the sort of stretch that makes you understand why people continue to pretend he could be traded.

29. Nashville Predators, 18-24-7

Last week: 26

Credit the Predators for that five-game win streak. It ended, though, before they forced us to contemplate their place in the wild-card race all that seriously. Now, poof — they’ve lost their last two, thanks to some tough luck at five-on-five and a crummy power play (0-for-6). Easy come, easy go.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

After a splashy offseason and terrible start, the Predators seem destined for the mushy middle

30. Buffalo Sabres, 19-26-5

Last week: 30

Matt Fairburn wrote about this a few days back, but the Sabres might have something in 20-year-old Jiri Kulich. He’s been centering Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka recently and looked good in the process; in about 50 minutes together, they’re out-scoring opponents 7-2.

31. Chicago Blackhawks, 16-30-5

Last week: 31

Connor Bedard has points in 16 of his last 18 games. Very good. The Blackhawks have also been outscored 19-14 with him on the ice at five-on-five with an expected goals percentage to match. Very not good.

32. San Jose Sharks, 15-33-6

Last week: 32

It’s been a volatile first 13 starts for Yaroslav Askarov. Six times, he’s put up a .929 save percentage or better; six times, he’s put up an .871 or worse. This week, he stacked a game where he was the best player on the ice (Pittsburgh) and one where he got pulled after allowing four goals on 11 shots (Seattle). He’s clearly talented, and the team in front of him is awful, but more time in the AHL seems like a no-brainer.

(Photo of the Senators celebrating Thomas Chabot’s overtime goal on Thursday: Marc DesRosiers / Imagn Images)



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