The NHL’s upcoming salary cap increases are official now, based on a memo circulated by the league on Friday. The numbers are set to soar.
The upper limit is set to increase from $88 million cap this season to $95.5 million in 2025-26, followed by $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28.
Winnipeg will be deeply affected by this. The UFA and RFA numbers we detailed for Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan Samberg, Gabriel Vilardi and company are going to go even higher than our projections — while Winnipeg will have approximately $40 million to work with this summer, according to PuckPedia.
The impact will be even more immediate. Trade targets with term left on their contracts are going to be even more valuable than we’ve projected — and the importance of term has been no secret. Kevin Cheveldayoff has been clear on that subject for years and never more direct about it than in his midseason address. That’s why players like Ryan O’Reilly — signed for an extra year at just $4.5 million — were given so much extra value in our forward trade targets earlier this week.
That theme re-emerges as we shift toward Jets targets on defence.
A contract signed in the flat cap era that still has years on it? That’s artificially cheap compared to what comes next in the NHL — and it will be worth a premium as Cheveldayoff, Larry Simmons and company go to work between now and March 7.
We’re focusing on the NHL’s top available defencemen in today’s piece, using Chris Johnston’s latest trade board as our guide. What would Rasmus Ristolainen or Ivan Provorov look like on Winnipeg’s roster? What about less likely options like Seth Jones, if the timing isn’t right for him with Chicago’s rebuild?
Well in advance of the deadline, it’s time to explore all kinds of options to upgrade Winnipeg’s defence corps.
David Savard, RD, Canadiens
Age: 34
Contract: $3.5 million cap hit, UFA 2025
Usage: Third pair at five-on-five, first unit penalty kill
Production: 1 goal, 9 assists, 10 points in 44 games played
David Savard isn’t the most exciting name on this list. It’s unlikely that he would be an upgrade to Colin Miller, who should already be getting more time on Winnipeg’s third pair than he is on this iteration of the Jets defence. Savard’s reputation, though, is that of a shot-blocking warrior, and his 2021 Stanley Cup win as a playoff rental for Tampa Bay increases his appeal. Savard played a third pairing role on that Cup-winning Lightning team and didn’t win his minutes while averaging just 26 seconds per game on the penalty kill. He’s not winning his third pairing minutes in Montreal, either, but has the veteran status and work ethic to garner interest as a No. 7 or No. 8 option.
Ivan Provorov, LD, Blue Jackets
Age: 28
Contract: $4.7 million cap hit, UFA 2025
Usage: Second pair at five-on-five, second unit power play, first unit penalty kill
Production: 3 goals, 18 assists, 21 points in 50 games played
Ivan Provorov provides an option of a player whose on-ice impact might exceed the Jets’ needs. The club should be familiar with Provorov, given his 2016 WHL championship with Brandon, and he’s played some of his Blue Jackets minutes with Manitoban Denton Mateychuk. Beyond those trivia items, I don’t believe he’s a player of interest for Winnipeg.
Now, if Damon Severson were available, I think there would be interest. But Severson has a full-no-trade clause and five seasons left on his $6.25 million contract after this one.
Seth Jones, RD, Blackhawks
Age: 30
Contract: $9.5 million cap hit, full no-movement clause, UFA 2030
Usage: First pair at five-on-five, first unit power play, first unit penalty kill
Production: 5 goals, 18 assists, 23 points in 33 games played
I seem to be alternating less-than-ideal fits with moonshots. Seth Jones falls into the latter category — a player thought to be untouchable in Chicago and whose full no-movement clause lowers the odds of a Jets acquisition.
So why talk about him?
Jones’ defensive game has improved in Chicago, helping turn his five-on-five and power play offensive prowess into quality all-around performance. He’s been part of the solution when on the ice, despite the Blackhawks’ years of struggles, and his special teams impacts have been legitimately good. There are five-on-five defensive lapses that bring pause and I think Jones’ impact in Winnipeg would be smaller than it is in Chicago — especially on a team with Josh Morrissey taking top power-play duties — but he can still help.
I don’t think he’s a $9.5 million player under the current $88 million cap ceiling, but Jones is signed for five seasons after this one. He would be an upgrade on Neal Pionk, whose contract is projected to approach $7 million under the new cap, according to AFP Analytics. Jones’ case is one where the rising cap changes my perception of player value, but even then: I think that $9.5 million will be too much for what he brings. The ideal fit is probably not with Winnipeg but with a team that can give him No. 1 power-play time and let him run.
Rasmus Ristolainen, RD, Flyers
Age: 30
Contract: $5.1 million cap hit, UFA 2027
Usage: Second pair at five-on-five, first unit penalty kill
Production: 2 goals, 13 assists, 15 points in 52 games played
Philadelphia has recently promoted Rasmus Ristolainen to its top power play, a move which makes me a bit cynical about his value. Isn’t that something a team looking to inflate a player’s production would do? He hasn’t been a consistent top-unit guy since he played for Buffalo (and that version of Ristolainen was an overworked defensive liability).
The Ristolainen that’s playing in Philadelphia right now has retooled his defensive game and that’s what makes him a legitimate player of interest. Ristolainen doesn’t abandon coverage to chase hits anymore and keeps a clean defensive zone as a result. He makes smarter use of his 6-foot-4 frame now, winning battles on the boards and in front of the net.
Here’s Hockey Viz’s heatmap, showing where teams get more — or less — shots through when Ristolainen is on the ice:
It may be that $5.1 million was too much to pay Ristolainen with an $82.5 million cap maximum. With the cap going up as much as it is, Ristolainen’s two extra years’ worth of contract is less of a liability: his $5.1 million is the same percentage of a $95.5 million cap that a $4.7 million contract is of this season’s $88 million maximum.
Cody Ceci, RD, Sharks
Age: 31
Contract: $3.25 million cap hit, UFA 2025
Usage: First pair at five-on-five, first unit penalty kill
Production: 4 goals, 11 assists, 15 points in 53 games played
Cody Ceci has never been an analytical darling. His most impressive years show a few years of adequate top-four impact surrounded by third pairing performance or worse — including for the Sharks right now.
But Ceci’s best years aren’t particularly far behind him. The 6-foot-3 right-shot played a much bigger role for the 2024 Cup finalist Oilers than Savard did for the 2021 Lightning. Ceci didn’t win his five-on-five minutes, either, but he played them against top-six forward competition and was a big part of the Oilers’ successful penalty kill. It seems possible that Ceci could deliver value on the PK while succeeding in a third-pairing role at even strength.
I think his impact would be well clear of Savard’s but behind that of Ristolainen. It’s faint praise but still relevant: I see Miller as a viable third-pairing right-handed defenceman, but the Jets don’t always use him as such. If they picked up a player like Ceci, I think he’d handle the third-pairing job just fine.
Ryan Lindgren, LD, Rangers
Age: 26
Contract: $4.5 million cap hit, UFA 2025
Usage: Second pair at five-on-five, first unit penalty kill
Production: 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points in 45 games played
Ryan Lindgren’s decline in performance has been part of the problem in New York. Shayna Goldman broke down those struggles earlier this season, noting his injury history and ultimately concluding that Lindgren needed to simplify his play.
The reasons for his decline aren’t clear, however, and the Rangers have been enough of a mess for me to think the problems go beyond one player. I’ll put this one on the Jets’ pro scouts. If they were able to identify the areas where Lindgren is struggling and make an accurate assessment of how his performance could translate to Winnipeg, they’d have a better instinct as to his diamond-in-the-rough potential than I do. In the meantime, Lindgren is one of many Rangers who have been playing better during a 6-2-2 run. It’s easy for me to imagine the heart-and-soul, physical defenceman delivering a better impact on Winnipeg’s third pair than he does while playing tougher minutes in New York. He’s a pending UFA without trade protection.
K’Andre Miller, LD, Rangers
Age: 24
Contract: $3.8 million cap hit, RFA 2025
Usage: First pair at five-on-five, second unit power play, second unit penalty kill
Production: 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points in 44 games played
K’Andre Miller is the only pending restricted free agent on this list. If you ask me, the fact that he’s under team control dramatically reduces the likelihood that he’s moved. The Rangers have a lot of good players despite their struggles so, if there’s a problem, why not trade the pending UFAs and retool with quality young players like the 24-year-old Miller?
That said, Miller is 6-foot-5, good in transition, and has played more of his minutes against elite competition than any other full-time Rangers defenceman. There’s a lot to like if he could be pried free, although one wonders where his long-term fit would be on a team with Morrissey and Samberg on the left side.
Brian Dumoulin, LD, Ducks
Age: 33
Contract: $3.15 million cap hit, UFA 2025
Usage: Second pair at five-on-five, second unit penalty kill
Production: 0 goals, 12 assists, 12 points in 50 games played
Brian Dumoulin is a two-time Stanley Cup champion who hasn’t been able to help the Ducks stay afloat in his minutes this season. The appeal comes from size, mobility, two Cup rings from a long time ago and an analytical wrinkle: Anaheim has been bad with Dumoulin on the ice and a lot worse with him on the bench. If he’s doing anything at all to stem the tide in heavy usage on a bad team, Dumoulin could be perfectly adequate on Winnipeg’s third pair.
Mario Ferraro, LD, Sharks
Age: 26
Contract: $3.25 million cap hit, UFA 2026
Usage: Second pair at five-on-five, first unit penalty kill
Production: 5 goals, 6 assists, 11 points in 53 games played
Mario Ferraro broke into the NHL on the Sharks team that traded Brenden Dillon to Washington and has blocked the 18th most shots in the league since that time.
This isn’t automatically a good thing — in many cases, it’s an indication that a player is spending too much — but Ferraro’s a gamer who is willing to put himself on the line for his team. He’s underwater as a top-four defenceman on the Sharks but a decent bet to upgrade Winnipeg’s third pair, as are many players on this list. Ferraro’s $3.25 million contract has one year left after this one.
Connor Murphy, RD, Blackhawks
Age: 31
Contract: $4.4 million cap hit, 10-team no-trade-clause, UFA 2026
Usage: Second pair at five-on-five, second unit penalty kill
Production: 1 goal, 12 assists, 13 points in 38 games played
Connor Murphy is about to return to action after missing 13 games this season — and 36 games in 2023-24 — due to a recurring injury condition called osteitis pubis.
Nothing about that sentence screams “must add” at the trade deadline, but Murphy has been a strong contributor in Chicago when healthy. His underlying numbers are the best among Blackhawks defencemen (when adjusted for usage). The difference between Chicago with Murphy on the ice and without him is enormous, implying he has been one of the few players who’s worked out for the Blackhawks this year.
It’s nice when big defencemen with stay-at-home reputations suppress shots and make big hits, too. Murphy threads that needle, making him and his $4.4 million AAV contract an appealing right-shot defenceman who has experience playing either side.
Cheveldayoff has done a great job of avoiding UFA overpayment in his career. It’s possible that I shouldn’t be as worried about soaring contracts in the new cap era as I am. I still think that acquiring players with term remaining could be one way of making his life a lot easier, given raises due to Vilardi, Samberg, and others — perhaps including Ehlers, definitely including Kyle Connor — in the years to come.
That’s one of the reasons I’d prefer a Ristolainen-type acquisition to patchwork like Savard or Ceci. Leaving MacKenzie Weegar off the list leaves a pang in the name of realism: Calgary seems to be all-in on him. Beyond that, the widely discussed names don’t immediately appear to be rich in the “fit” that Cheveldayoff prioritizes so highly. The big names like Jones don’t seem realistic (or ideal, given the amount of his value that comes from the power play.) Capable top-four options like Murphy (and once-capable options like Lindgen) come with injury concerns, while Miller seems like the player New York should keep.
If there’s a big swing coming on defence — bigger than Ristolainen, that is — Cheveldayoff might have to deliver a surprise.
(Top photo of Rasmus Ristolainen: Kyle Ross / USA Today)
