The Transfer DealSheet: What comes next? Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool analysis

Welcome to our wrap-up winter window edition of The Transfer DealSheet.

Throughout the window, our team of dedicated writers, including David Ornstein, have taken you inside the market to explain the deals being worked on. The window closed for many leagues on February 3.

The information found within this article has been gathered according to The Athletic’s sourcing guidelines. Unless stated, our reporters have spoken to more than one person briefed on each deal before offering the clubs involved the opportunity to comment. Those responses, when they were given, have been included in the Transfer DealSheet.

Following the closure of the window and ahead of the summer, we have taken a look at the window just gone and what to expect from Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Barcelona and Real Madrid. We have also taken a look at the players to keep an eye on ahead of the summer.

We aim to bring you analysis you can trust about what is happening at Europe’s leading clubs and the latest information we’re hearing from across the market.

This article is long but detailed, so enjoy it all — or search for the club or player you want to read about.

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The Athletic’s Ones To Watch for the summer window

• Liam Delap might only have joined Ipswich Town from Manchester City in the summer, but he has been tracked by teams across the Premier League for a long time. That has not dissipated on the back of his nine goals in 23 Premier League appearances for Ipswich. Chelsea and Manchester United both admire him, as reported in the Transfer Radar, but City insert matching rights or buy-back clauses in most sales. They could yet have a say in his next move.
• Florian Wirtz has a contract with Bayer Leverkusen until 2027. But as Seb Stafford-Bloor has previously reported, he has a close relationship with his head coach Xabi Alonso, who is in demand. At some stage, Wirtz may look elsewhere.
• Benjamin Sesko decided to stay at RB Leipzig last summer and signed a new contract until 2029. But he is still of interest to Premier League sides — Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle were all keen last summer. Arsenal decided against signing a striker in the winter window and can now go after one of their top targets in the summer, which includes Sesko — as Jordan Campbell reports below.
• Nico Williams wanted to join Barcelona last summer, waiting for them despite interest from the Premier League. Barcelona are unlikely to be there for him in the summer window, given Raphinha and Lamine Yamal’s form. He is now more open to a move to the Premier League, as reported in the Transfer Radar. Williams has a release clause of around €60million (£50m, $62m). The likes of Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham hold a long-standing admiration.

• There was a firm expectation before the winter window that Viktor Gyokeres would move at the end of the season. Gyokeres has a well-documented €100m release clause, but Sporting CP are likely to do business for €70m. Strong interest is building from a host of suitors. His camp is considering options from across Europe, including Premier League clubs, as they decide on the next step.
• There was significant interest in Marc Guehi during the winter window. First, Chelsea spoke to Crystal Palace about a possible move — instead opting to recall Trevoh Chalobah from his loan spell. Then Tottenham made a late major bid for him, which Palace rejected, as reported by David Ornstein. This activity during the winter window all followed significant interest from Newcastle in the summer. Guehi’s contract with Palace expires in the summer. The fact no new deal has been agreed underscores the sense that the moment for him to move to a bigger club is fast approaching.

• Arsenal are pursuing a deal for Martin Zubimendi in the summer, as reported by David Ornstein. The 25-year-old was heavily pursued by Liverpool last summer, but Zubimendi ultimately opted to stay. Arsenal have been working on a move for him for a considerable time, with Mikel Arteta the key driver behind it. Mario Cortegana does, however, report further along in this Transfer DealSheet, that there are growing conversations behind the scenes at Real Madrid about Zubimendi.
• Ruben Amorim gave Geovany Quenda his debut at Sporting and now Amorim’s new side Manchester United are exploring a deal to sign him in the summer. While no formal offer has been made, they are looking into a deal for the 17-year-old. Quenda, who turns 18 in April, is expected to cost around €40m. There is also interest from other clubs.

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Arsenal

Was this window a success or a failure?

A question that can only be answered come the end of the season, when it will be known whether Arsenal did indeed lack a clinical finisher to fire them to the big prizes. Right now, though, it feels like the answer will be: neither.

There will be those who view Arsenal’s decision not to enter the market before Monday night’s deadline as a categorical failure, but January (and in this case, the start of February) is never an easy time for clubs to go shopping, and buying for the sake of it is a mistake many teams fall into.

Signing Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa would have provided the immediate sugar rush of a proven finisher and the nice story of a boyhood Arsenal fan realising a lifelong dream. But would he have immediately relegated Kai Havertz to the bench? Would his all-round game instantly click in Mikel Arteta’s team? And would forking out £60m now on somebody who turns 30 this year really represent sensible business when it would use up your budget for a striker in the summer window?

In that context, the summer loan deals for Neto and Raheem Sterling came to look like costly, unintended restrictions on trade, as neither player has made meaningful contributions to the team in the first half of the season yet their presence prevented Arsenal from bringing in a Premier League striker on loan.

A loan from another league abroad always felt like their most realistic option.

It did not have to be someone who would usurp Havertz, as there are few players out there who can do everything he can for a team and also finish like an assassin — and they certainly aren’t available to borrow in January. A more limited, poacher-type was a possibility, but Arsenal chose against doing what they saw as adding a body to the squad.

They could have pivoted and tried to find a winger capable of playing on both flanks, to provide the Saka alternative Arsenal have neglected for too long and potentially improve on Gabriel Martinelli and Trossard on the left.

In the end, they put both these avenues on ice, a decision that leaves Arsenal banking on injury misfortune not striking their one remaining striker over the next four months.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

Not a penny moved in either direction, a sign of Arsenal’s resolve to not emerge from this window weaker if they could not realistically come out of it stronger.

Kieran Tierney has agreed a pre-contract with Celtic but the Scotland full-back’s return to his boyhood club will not happen until the summer, once his deal at Arsenal expires. Nineteen-year-old defender Maldini Kacurri joined League Two side Bromley Town on loan in what was their only piece of deadline-day business.

It was uneventful, with no Trossard-in-2023 type deal to provide the squad with a low-risk injection of quality for the final months of the season.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

There will be one on their right wing until Saka makes his anticipated return from a hamstring injury at some point in March. Apart from that though, Arsenal have every other spot in their starting XI filled.

But a gap in a squad is not always about whether there is an undisputed name for every place in the line-up. The sense remains that Arsenal still don’t have a goal-poacher in their ranks, even if Havertz is now on 15 goals and five assists this season in 33 appearances across all competitions.

Arsenal are now solely reliant on the German as their centre-forward until the end of the season, with Jesus lost long-term to an ACL knee injury. A forward with less of an all-round game but sharper instincts in the opposition box could have been an option for Arteta to use off the bench or just to give Havertz an occasional break from the relentless pressure.

Trossard and teenager Ethan Nwaneri can operate centrally in more withdrawn roles but the decision to not bring in another striker means Arsenal are gambling that they have enough firepower to see them through to when the music stops in late May.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

Arsenal showed in the final half an hour against Manchester City on Sunday that when they play with freedom and directness, they can be the best team in the Premier League. But they have not been that side regularly enough this season.

Initially, the issue was a lack of creativity from open play, but in the past six weeks that has switched to a failure to convert a glut of chances and it cost them in both domestic cup competitions.

Arteta has always believed that the combined power of five or six players contributing can outweigh a team over-reliant on one powerful force. Arsenal’s supporting cast have failed to reach the numbers this season that they did in 2022-23, however, and the club need Havertz, Trossard, Martinelli, Declan Rice, Martin Odegaard and Nwaneri to pump up their individual stats if they are to deliver silverware.

Arsenal do have attacking options for the rest of this season, but whether they have the ruthlessness or depth in quality needed to outgun Liverpool remains doubtful.

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

Yes, and this is the calculation Arsenal have made in choosing to keep their hands in their pockets during this window. In theory, it should allow them to make a giant leap once the next one opens in June.

Newcastle’s Alexander Isak and fellow striker Benjamin Sesko of RB Leipzig are the two players they admire the most. Both have the sort of long-term profiles they have decided to ring-fence funds for, as opposed to overspending on ageing short-term fixes that may have helped them get over the line this season.

Sesko signed a new contract at Leipzig last June, which saw Arsenal choose to delay that part of their squad planning.

What is their priority for the summer?

It is two-fold: a No 6 to definitively settle the midfield equation and an elite striker to definitively silence the noise around their perceived lack of one.

Real Sociedad holding midfielder Martin Zubimendi is a player they have put the groundwork in on and now hope to have a deal in place for ahead of the summer window officially opening. His arrival for around £50m would allow Rice to settle into one position as the left No 8, potentially solidifying that side of a team who have struggled to match the effectiveness of their right flank over the past few years.

But the arrival of a top striker could be the game-changer.

Havertz has elevated Arsenal’s team since he moved into that position from midfield a year ago but there are still times when he looks uncomfortable when presented with the sort of chances the sport’s goals-obsessed pure front men dream about.

Jordan Campbell

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Why Arsenal need to sign a striker

Arsenal’s 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City will briefly allay concerns over their failure to sign a centre-forward in January. Make no mistakes, though – Arsenal certainly need one.

In the 2024-25 Premier League, Arsenal have scored a healthy 49 goals from 24 games, overperforming their xG (the number of goals they are expected to score based on quality of opportunities) of 39.8. This overperformance is difficult to maintain, though, and has ballooned by 4.0 after they scored five times from 1.0 xG against City.

As the graph above shows, Arsenal massively overperformed their xG in 2022-23 (88 goals from 73.6xG) and 2023-24 (91 goals from 77.5xG).

To a degree, Arsenal have returned to a more sustainable level of performance in front of goal this season. Their bigger issue, though, has been in putting chances away.

In 2022-23, they averaged 2.6 big chances created per 90 and converted nearly half of those. Last season, that changed to 2.97 per 90 at a 44 per cent conversion rate. In 2024-25, they have created 3.3 big chances per 90 but converted just 39 per cent of those.

Their reliance on set pieces has risen too, with their open play xG per 90 dropping from around 1.5 per 90 across the previous two seasons to 1.1 this season. That suggests that overall creativity has dropped due to injuries and other factors, but the message is clear — Arsenal need to be more clinical.

Signing a striker alone may not resolve that issue, but could be the most important step along with improving their chance creation outside of set-pieces, and the reliance on Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard.

Anantaajith Raghuraman

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Chelsea

Was this window a success or a failure?

Only time will tell because the decisions made now will be judged on what they have achieved by the end of the season.

By concentrating more on getting players out than in, Chelsea have left themselves a little exposed to injuries. The squad was a bit bloated anyway and keeping unsettled personnel can hurt morale in the camp. It is always a difficult balance to strike between the two.

Chelsea’s messaging has remained consistent. Yes, they wanted a winger and a striker but were not going to break the bank to do it now, especially with few teams wanting to sell their best assets.

Enquiries were made for players such as Manchester United’s Alejandro Garnacho but nothing went further than that. If the right deal for the right price could be done for a player, Chelsea would act. If not, it was all about making some headway for moves to be made in the summer and the club believe they have done this for some of their targets.

Recalling Trevoh Chalobah from his loan at Crystal Palace following hamstring injuries to Wesley Fofana and Benoit Badiashile provides good cover — he will need no time to settle in. By acquiring Mamadou Sarr and Mathis Amougou, they have bought two talented youngsters with the future in mind rather than the present. The same could be said for Aaron Anselmino, who was signed from Boca Juniors last summer but was only added to the set-up last month, having been initially loaned back.

Apart from Cesare Casadei, Chelsea were unable to agree any significant permanent departures. Five senior players left on loan but the club still see it in a positive light. Renato Veiga, Carney Chukwuemeka, Axel Disasi and Joao Felix have all joined clubs playing in the Champions League. The hope is they either benefit from regular game time to be able to come back and help improve Chelsea or, they prove their worth to secure a permanent transfer somewhere and provide income which can be reinvested into other targets.

So there was not an awful lot to get excited about but Chelsea have been through so much change over the last three years, that a fairly subdued bit of trading may not be such a bad thing.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

Chelsea came out in the black. They earned more from Casadei’s sale to Torino (€15m) than they paid sister club Strasbourg for Sarr (€14m).

The club have earned around £15m in loan fees, which comfortably meets the cost of Amougou’s purchase for £12.5m. The wage bill has been reduced too, plus there will be more revenue generated in the future when high sell-on clauses are triggered, albeit the vast majority of permanent departures were academy personnel.

Was there a standout signing?

In terms of making a massive difference now, you have to say no. However, it can be argued that having Chalobah back in the fold is a step up at the back from Disasi, who has struggled since moving to Stamford Bridge in 2023.

Did they lose anyone they would have wanted to keep?

Head coach Enzo Maresca did not want Casadei or Veiga to leave to name just two, but both made it clear to the Italian that they wanted more regular first-team football. Veiga was a useful squad player to have in the ranks given he can play at centre-back, left-back and midfield. He could be missed when the Conference League resumes in March and the schedule becomes more intense.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

Chelsea’s continued pursuit of a winger and striker speaks volumes. Nicolas Jackson is on his longest scoring drought at the club (eight games) and Mudryk’s suspension for failing a doping test means inexperienced Tyrique George is being asked to step up.

But there are other reasons to be concerned. Romeo Lavia’s fitness issues has left them light in midfield and they are reliant on Moises Caicedo staying injury-free. Goalkeepers Robert Sanchez and Filip Jorgensen have yet to win over the crowd but it is worth bearing in mind Chelsea have already got a very talented youngster in Mike Penders coming from Genk in the summer.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

Chelsea have lost some of the depth in their squad so you could argue they are a bit weaker. On the other hand, Maresca does not have to manage as many players and their fragile egos so his job might have become a bit easier.

A lot is resting on Cole Palmer’s shoulders but he has coped with that pretty well over the past 18 months. As long as he keeps producing the goods in attack, Chelsea should remain optimistic about finishing in the top four/five and winning one of the two cups.

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

Yes. Qualifying for the Champions League will help give them more but Chelsea’s business model has used sales to generate a huge amount of funds in the past and the next close season will be no different.

What is their priority for the summer?

A winger and a striker.

Simon Johnson

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Liverpool

Was this window a success or a failure?

Arne Slot has been consistent in his message that he is happy with the squad he inherited and there has never been a moment this month where he spoke about needing to strengthen it. Considering that none of the squad departed — with Real Madrid’s approach for Trent Alexander-Arnold rejected — that makes it a success.

Circumstances, such as a sudden injury crisis, could drastically change that view in the coming months. It may have been an opportunity missed to improve the squad from a position of strength ahead of a busy rest of the campaign. Alexander-Arnold is the only player currently nursing an injury.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

As Liverpool have demonstrated in recent January windows, they will spend if the right player becomes available for a sensible price. Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz are the most recent examples of an opportunity opening up and the club fast forwarding their summer plans to secure the deal ahead of others. On this occasion, that did not occur.

The majority of the business were outgoing loans. Temporary moves were found for striker Jayden Danns (Sunderland), midfielder Dominic Corness (Gillingham) and goalkeeper Fabian Mrozek (Forest Green). Stefan Bajcetic, Calvin Ramsey and Kaide Gordon switched loan clubs after being recalled. Bajcetic moved from RB Salzburg to Las Palmas, Ramsey swapped Wigan Athletic for Scottish side Kilmarnock and Gordon was recalled from Norwich and joined Portsmouth. Marcelo Pitaluga (Fluminense) and Tom Hill (Harrogate Town) sealed permanent moves away.

Was there a standout signing?

Ha. Well, swiftly moving on…

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

In terms of number of players, no. Slot likes to operate with two senior options in every position and when everybody is fit, he has that.

If we are discussing the quality of the options available at certain positions then the answer is slightly different. Left-back has been scrutinised due to Andy Robertson’s inconsistency and Kostas Tsimikas not being a long-term solution. Ryan Gravenberch has excelled as a No 6 but his deputy, Wataru Endo, is not as suited to Slot’s system.

He has performed well in cameos but if Gravenberch was out, would Slot select him to start in an important league game? Probably not.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

Top of the Premier League, winners of the Champions League group phase and still in both domestic cup competitions — it is fair to conclude, yes.

Liverpool have arguably been the best team in Europe so far this season and despite not strengthening, remain on course to challenge for silverware at the end of the season.

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

They should, yes. In the last three transfer windows, Liverpool have only spent £10.2m on their senior squad as Federico Chiesa signed in August. A £29m deal for Valencia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili has already been lined up for next summer.

With revenues continuing to increase, and Liverpool pocketing a significant amount of prize money already from the Champions League, money will be available. Sustainability is key to owners Fenway Sports Group’s model so spending will remain sensible but their hand may be forced if Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk or Alexander-Arnold leave when their contracts expire.

What is their priority for the summer?

This remains an answer that is balancing on a knife edge depending on how the contract situations of Salah, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold are resolved. If any of the trio depart, then Liverpool will need to find replacements in those positions.

While their futures remain up in the air, there are other areas that Liverpool will be looking to address too. As discussed earlier, upgrading at left-back will be considered with Robertson moving into the final year of his current deal.

The pursuit of Real Sociedad midfielder Zubimendi last summer pointed to Slot wanting to improve his midfield options — although the surprising form of Ryan Gravenberch has made signing a No 6 less of a priority.

Another potential question to consider is Liverpool’s No 9 position, given Nunez’s struggles in front of goal and Jota’s continued injury problems.

Andy Jones

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Manchester City

Was this window a success or a failure?

Only time will tell but around two months ago City had set out to buy one player, a box-to-box midfielder, and they signed Nico Gonzalez on deadline day.

And after changing their transfer plans in the middle of December, they decided to strengthen the defence and the attack. They have signed two highly promising defenders — Vitor Reis and Abdukodir Khusanov — and the more ready-made forward Omar Marmoush, they have certainly done what they set out to do.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

Those four players cost them £173m, plus just under £5m for Juma Bah, a promising young defender signed from Valladolid and loaned to Lens. He is not considered ready for Pep Guardiola’s first team just yet and is not in the same boat as the other four signings, but it was City’s money that brought him in.

Was there a standout signing?

We have not seen him play yet but Gonzalez looks like a good fit for City and he plays in midfield, the area that most obviously needs strengthening. He is tall, physical and mobile, which is a good starting point considering City’s issues in the middle this season, and he looks good on the ball both when passing it and carrying it.

Having come through the ranks at Barcelona, he should not need too much time getting to grips with Guardiola’s playing style. It would be a big ask to expect him to fix City’s problems on his own, particularly from the outset, but he looks like his attributes are what they need from a midfielder.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

They could probably do with another midfielder, and more than that if Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan move on in the summer.

It looks as though City have taken a much-needed step towards addressing that area now (and indeed the defence and attack, too) and they will do more business in the summer to complete an overhaul.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

Given the goal is to qualify for the Champions League rather than to win the title, then they may have enough to get over the line, particularly if fifth place is enough to stay among Europe’s elite for another season.

They are likely to continue to struggle in the coming weeks, especially with games against Newcastle, Liverpool, Tottenham and Nottingham Forest before the international break, but the fixtures beyond that, coupled with the probability being that one of Newcastle, Forest or Chelsea drop enough points, offers hope that they will get the job done. But it will not be easy.

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

Yep. This splurge was made possible by relatively low spending and relatively high transfer income over the past five years, meaning they have money in the bank from sales and compliance with the Premier League’s profit and sustainability (PSR) rules.

Over the past five years, they have brought in far more than they have spent, so there is more to come.

What is their priority for the summer?

Probably some big reinforcements in midfield if De Bruyne and/or Gundogan do leave. It has become obvious that the squad needs major surgery and the winter transfer window has only partly addressed that.

There will probably need to be work done in defence and on the wings, too, but midfield is the most pressing area.

Sam Lee

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Manchester United

Was this window a success or a failure?

That will only be proven in time. From United’s point of view, they stayed financially restrained so there is more money available for long-term targets in the summer, while also offloading players at odds with the culture Ruben Amorim and the football leadership are trying to build.

Bringing in a left wing-back in Patrick Dorgu at least addressed a key area, alleviating Diogo Dalot or Noussair Mazraoui from playing out of position, but deciding against adding an attacker after losing Marcus Rashford and Antony is a bold strategy given the team’s issues in front of goal.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

For Dorgu, United committed to a deal worth €30m plus €5m in add-ons (the majority harder to achieve) while agreeing a compensation package of around £1.5m for Ayden Heaven, the 18-year-old defender from Arsenal.

United did not bring in any money but did trim the wage bill significantly, with Villa paying a minimum of 75 per cent of Rashford’s salary, a saving worth more than £200,000 per week, and Real Betis covering 84 per cent of Antony’s £105,000-per-week pay. PSV are taking on Tyrell Malacia’s wage in full, although he is at the lower end of United earners, as well as agreeing to a €10m buy option.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

Aside from raising the quality across the team, there is an obvious issue at centre-forward. Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee have five Premier League goals between them this campaign, and bringing in a reliable striker will be a priority in the summer.

United declined to go for Mathys Tel at a £5m loan fee because they did not consider it value for money. They want more flexibility for a long-term target once the season ends.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

United’s goals have adjusted this season, from originally aiming for a top-four place the best they appear able to hope for is a top-half finish. The Europa League stands as a clear objective, given the competition’s qualifying route to the Champions League, Winning that with the current squad feels plausible, given players’ capacities for rising to one-off games.

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

There should be more scope for spending once the campaign is over, due to the measuring period for profitability and sustainability regulations resetting. But money will still be tight, given the debt on the club and Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s attempts to get United on a more financially sound footing.

What is their priority for the summer?

Aside from a striker, further reinforcement in the wing-back areas — so crucial for Amorim’s system — is expected. United are exploring a move for Geovany Quenda at Sporting.

Laurie Whitwell

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Why Manchester United are struggling to adapt to Amorim’s system

It is not as simple as saying Manchester United need to sign players to get the best out of head coach Ruben Amorim. They also need to adapt further to his system.

The graphics below from two specific games provide an idea of some of the issues they’re facing.

At Sporting CP, the forwards Viktor Gyokeres and Pedro Goncalves (Pote) played closer together than Hojlund and Bruno Fernandes do for the Old Trafford side. This allowed for a good exchange of passes.

Similarly, from midfield, there were better connections for Gyokeres (with Morten Hjulmand and Matheus Reis) than there are for Hojlund (only Lisandro Martinez really despite Fernandes playing close to him).

The centre-backs also pushed higher for Sporting than they do at Manchester United — this is due to a difference in pace, which is a problem Amorim’s side need to solve. The right wing also has better spacing between Quenda and Trincao than between Diogo Dalot and Amad, who play in the same area.

Anantaajith Raghuraman

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Newcastle United

Was this window a success or a failure?

Neither, because the reality is far more nuanced.

When you consider Newcastle did not bring in a first-team player — not materially strengthening their first XI for the third consecutive window — and actually allowed two squad members to depart, then those without knowledge of the club’s financial standing may describe that as a failure.

Yet that does not take into account the wider context.

Newcastle went into January looking to sell at least one squad player to aid their PSR position and the persistent message from late November onwards was that securing incomings would be very difficult and highly unlikely. Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis and Juma Bah were all tracked — and significant groundwork was put into securing the framework of a deal for the former ahead of the summer — but all three defenders ended up at Manchester City, much to the frustration of members of Newcastle’s hierarchy, who could not act decisively this month given the financial constraints.

In one sense, some may even argue the window was a success because Miguel Almiron and Lloyd Kelly, who had a mere five Premier League starts between them in 2024-25, were moved on for fees that could rise to a combined £31m ($38m), albeit the £20m from Kelly will not be banked until the next accounts. Newcastle’s PSR standing was improved and none of Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon or Bruno Guimaraes departed. The first XI has certainly not been weakened, even if the squad is thinner.

Yet supporters who do not have access to the full PSR data, given how opaque the system is, may well have a less sympathetic perspective.

After all, they watched the Marc Guehi saga play out in August and, while Newcastle never reached the level of bid claimed — and would have had to raise even more cash through sales had that purchase happened — there still appeared to be some money to spend. In December, there were also suggestions Newcastle may have the capacity to sell to buy — although other insiders downplayed that was the case — yet by mid-January, it became clear they actually needed to sell for PSR reasons, as Eddie Howe admitted once Almiron had left.

In January 2024, Darren Eales, the CEO, spoke alongside the release of the accounts less than two weeks into the window. Although his remarks sparked concern that Newcastle were looking to offload players, it also outlined the reality of the situation to supporters.

This year, that public declaration has yet to happen and, once it arrives, Eales will be presenting information after the fact, when the narrative risks having already set in rather than managing expectations in advance. Howe has been attempting to do that, while all private soundings from the club have been consistent on that front, but that is not the same as a senior figure contemporaneously confirming the reality on the record.

The timing of the window closing has also been inopportune, optics-wise.

Newcastle have won 10 out of their past 12 games and are sixth in the Premier League, a position that should be enough to secure Champions League football for next season. They are also 2-0 up heading into Wednesday’s Carabao Cup semi-final second leg against Arsenal, so their position is transformed from two months ago.

But performances have stuttered over the past couple of weeks. Bournemouth and Fulham have left Tyneside with deserved victories and Howe has appeared reluctant to use his replacements early. That bench should be bolstered by Callum Wilson’s imminent return, while Harvey Barnes is due back in a couple of weeks, but the attacking depth is not there at the moment. Howe has admitted he fears a “staleness” creeping in due to a lack of arrivals.

His public acceptance of the situation should be informative for supporters, however. The head coach recognises Newcastle’s hierarchy believe they simply could not act this month, rather than opted against doing so.

‘Good financial housekeeping’ has been the mantra internally and, while that does not mean there is suddenly going to be a bottomless pit of cash to spend this summer, Newcastle will be in a position to do significant, potentially wide-ranging, incoming business.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

Spent: £0

Recouped: £31m (up to £11m for Almiron, plus up to £20m in 2025-26’s accounts once Kelly’s move to Juventus becomes permanent)

Was there a standout signing?

If you remove the word “standout”, then the question can be answered: N/A.

Getting Juventus to agree to a fee potentially rising to £20m, the vast majority of which will be banked in future years, for Kelly — who has played 302 Premier League minutes and has not started a top-flight game since November — is eye-opening. But that is a sale, not a signing.

Did they lose anyone they would have wanted to keep?

It depends on the use of the word ‘they’.

Nobody has departed without Howe’s acceptance. From a footballing perspective, ideally, he would have preferred to keep Kelly and perhaps even Almiron given the lack of alternatives at right-sided forward, especially with incomings not possible, but he has not lost any of his automatic starters.

Manchester City have previously shown an interest in Guimaraes but did not make an approach, and whereas Gordon was floated to Liverpool and there were tentative enquiries from Chelsea for Isak before last June’s PSR deadline, there was never any danger of Newcastle’s elite players departing in January. The club’s PSR position was never as desperate as last year, even if fringe sales bolstered their standing, and rivals understood that.

Heading into the summer, the suggestion from some inside Newcastle is that the outgoing business this month should give the club a greater chance of retaining those star players going forward — and perhaps even afford some capacity to try to tie Isak down to a new deal.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

In the squad, yes, and arguably one within the team, too, even if the starting XI definitely has the quality to secure a top-five finish.

Beyond Jacob Murphy, who has excelled recently, the club do not have a natural senior right-sided player.

Joelinton, Gordon and Barnes have been trialled down that flank, to mixed success, and the latter is currently injured, while Will Osula deputised out wide late on against Fulham. Howe has suggested he will assess options from the academy but, aside from the exciting if extremely raw Trevan Sanusi, there does not appear to be a youngster ready to make that leap.

Up front, although Wilson is almost back, he has played 58 league minutes this season. His lack of reliability fitness-wise means the drop-off below Isak is huge, with Osula still seen as a “project player” and yet to be given a full Premier League debut.

In defence, Newcastle rebuffed late EFL interest in Matt Targett to permit Kelly to leave. Although Sven Botman’s return last month pushed Kelly further down the central-defensive pecking order, Jamaal Lascelles is still weeks away from returning and a right-sided centre-back has been on the wanted list for three years.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

A cop-out answer, for which I should be disciplined, but… I am genuinely unsure.

Newcastle are definitely capable of winning the Carabao Cup. Although Liverpool are their bogey team and could yet await Howe’s side should they reach Wembley, this squad is more experienced at handling showpiece occasions following the painful defeat by Manchester United two years ago.

But their success in both the cup competitions and the Premier League will partly be determined by whether they can keep key players fit. The arrival of James Bunce, the performance director, last summer and the lack of European football this season has resulted in an improved injury rate — but those increased availability levels must be prolonged over the rest of the season.

In the league, only seven points separate Chelsea in fourth from Fulham in ninth and the race for Champions League qualification will be tight. While Newcastle are well placed to secure a return to some form of European football for 2025-26 — as was their stated aim at the start of the season — whether they can last the pace and ensure that is in UEFA’s premier competition will largely be determined by whether Isak, Gordon, Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali et al remain fit and firing.

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

Yes.

Although the size of the kitty remains uncertain and there have been noises from insiders cautioning against the idea Newcastle will suddenly have limitless funds, the rationale behind a quiet, sales-led January has been that it will free up the club to be able to undergo wider squad surgery this summer.

The PSR rules are changing and will be based on annual revenue, which largely (but not entirely) frees Newcastle from the three-year rolling cycle which has hamstrung them for 18 months, although their wage budget remains a limiting factor. UEFA’s rules will be stricter, with 70 per cent of revenue permitted to be spent, rather than the Premier League’s expected 85 per cent, and that has to be accounted for.

Regardless, Newcastle have long been planning for an important off-season and there is a recognition that the squad needs a refresh and areas of the first XI require greater quality. With the majority of the Kelly money set to be banked in next season’s accounts, that should give Newcastle even greater headroom to bring in multiple first-team players.

What is their priority for the summer?

A right-winger and a right-sided centre-half, as has been the case for multiple windows. They are the two positions that have yet to be augmented post-takeover and which most desperately require strengthening.

With Wilson likely to depart once his contract expires, a forward is also being considered, with Lille’s Jonathan David among those tracked. A reshuffle of the goalkeeper department is also possible, with Martin Dubravka and Odysseas Vlachodimos‘ long-term futures uncertain and Burnley’s James Trafford admired.

Chris Waugh

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Tottenham Hotspur

Was this window a success or a failure?

Tottenham desperately needed defensive reinforcements and a new goalkeeper in this transfer window. They ticked both of those boxes with Antonin Kinsky and Kevin Danso, but the latter did not arrive until the day before the window closed. Spurs played nine games in all competitions over the past month and, ideally, the 26-year-old centre-back would have arrived from Lens a lot earlier to ease the burden on Archie Gray and Dragusin.

Even with Danso’s acquisition, Spurs are still short of options in defence. Acquiring Marc Guehi from Crystal Palace would have been a statement signing, but they did not come close to pulling it off.

Postecoglou has spoken publicly on multiple occasions about the need for more firepower. Tottenham failed in their pursuit of Randal Kolo Muani early in the window but eventually managed to sign the talented but raw Mathys Tel.

Despite completing three deals, Spurs are in a similar position to the start of the window. The squad is full of holes due to their injury crisis and it will be a challenge to perform at a high level in four competitions over the final few months of the campaign.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

Spurs paid Slavia Prague £13.3m for Kinsky, while Danso’s loan deal includes an obligation to buy for €25m in the summer.

Tel has joined on loan until the end of the season, but the move can be made permanent. Tottenham have not actually spent a lot of money in this window but have committed to some big fees in the summer.

They did not raise any money as the only departures were loans, with 19-year-old striker Will Lankshear moving to West Bromwich Albion and Yang-Min hyeok heading to Queens Park Rangers.

Was there a standout signing?

Tel’s career has stalled with Bayern Munich but he is still an exciting prospect, while Danso should slot into the starting XI straight away. Both will hope to make an impact as big and as quick as Kinsky.

He made his debut for Spurs in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Liverpool. It was a huge challenge for the 21-year-old, who had spent the previous couple of weeks relaxing during the Czech Republic’s top flight’s winter break. He had just jumped out of the sauna when he received a phone call about Tottenham’s interest in signing him.

Kinsky only trained with his new team-mates twice before he produced a superb performance and kept a clean sheet in an important 1-0 victory over Liverpool that has given them a chance of reaching Wembley.

Fraser Forster had been deputising for the injured first-choice goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and he looked awkward playing the ball out from the back. Kinsky’s calmness in possession means he is a significant upgrade on Forster and will challenge Vicario long-term.

The Czech Republic Under-21 international has made one or two sloppy mistakes in other games, including the north London derby when Kai Havertz blocked his pass inside the box, but it is important to remember he is a young player who has been thrust straight into an underperforming and injury-ravaged team.

Did they lose anyone they would have wanted to keep?

None of the senior players left as even those who had previously been on the fringes, including Sergio Reguilon and Djed Spence, have received significant game time in the past couple of months.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

The day before Spurs lost to Bournemouth in December, Postecoglou spoke about providing club-record signing Dominic Solanke with more support up front.

“There’s no doubt we need some bolstering in that front third over the next couple of transfer windows,” he said. “Dom coming in has been great, but again, we can’t overload him either because ultimately, you know, even if he stays fit and nothing happens, performance will invariably drop if his energy levels drop. So it’s something we’re aware of and need to plan for.”

Richarlison’s return from injury was supposed to help the situation, but Solanke then suffered a knee injury in training. Son Heung-min has underperformed this season, while Timo Werner has only scored twice in his last 30 top-flight appearances. Werner’s last league goal came in a 4-0 victory at Aston Villa in March 2024. Meanwhile, Wilson Odobert’s first year in north London has been disrupted by a persistent hamstring injury.

Spurs managed to sign Tel to boost their numbers, but it would be unfair to place too much pressure on his shoulders. They still need to sign an elite, peak-age forward who is capable of covering multiple positions.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

The real question here is: ‘Do Spurs have a strong enough squad to beat Liverpool in their Carabao Cup semi-final second leg on Thursday evening?’

Van de Ven managed 45 minutes on his return from a hamstring injury against Elfsborg but then missed Sunday’s 2-0 victory over Brentford, while Dragusin will not feature again this season.

There is a group of six players, which includes Destiny Udogie, James Maddison and Brennan Johnson, who are due to return in the next week, but might not recover quickly enough to feature at Anfield.

Postecoglou has to decide whether to give Danso his debut against Liverpool or stick with Ben Davies and Archie Gray at centre-back. Solanke’s absence is a blow, but Richarlison has scored twice in his six games since returning from injury.

It is going to be difficult to beat Liverpool, but looking further ahead, when everybody is fit and healthy, they have a squad capable of reaching the Europa League final and progressing deep in the FA Cup.

What is their priority for the summer?

Signing an elite, multi-functional forward who can relieve some of the goalscoring burden from Solanke.

Jay Harris

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Barcelona

Was this window a success or a failure for Barcelona?

Despite not sealing any major deal incoming or departing the club, this has to be deemed as a successful transfer window for Barcelona.

The club has managed to secure the long-term futures of precious assets like Pedri, Gavi and Ronald Araujo – although the latter might be slightly more complicated – through the signing of new contracts.

Among all the names reported as potential January reinforcements — Marcus Rashford was the main one — they were mainly candidates to fight for a squad rotation spot rather than becoming an instant starter in Flick’s team, so the club decided not to rush into any additions.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

They spent nothing on new signings but brought in €17.8m by the end of the window.

Most of that arrived thanks to Manchester City’s signing of Nico Gonzalez, a La Masia product who Barcelona kept a share of future sales profit on when they sold him to Porto. From Gonzalez’s move, Barcelona received €13.3m this month.

The second significant sale was Unai Hernandez, the captain of Barcelona’s second team, who left the club to move to the Saudi Pro League. Al-Ittihad, who have former Barcelona executive Ramon Planes as sporting director, signed the promising 20-year-old for €4.5m.

Hernandez was close to reaching the end of his current contract at the club and Barcelona were in a tough spot to convince him to stay. The attacking midfielder had not found a quick route into Flick’s plans either. Despite impressing at Barcelona Atletic over the last two seasons, his position on the pitch is extremely crowded in the first team. He would have to compete with the likes of Pedri, Gavi, Dani Olmo, Fermin Lopez and even Pablo Torre.

Was there a standout signing?

No, there was not.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

The team could possibly be better. There is no fully reliable back-up for both full-backs in the team, Jules Kounde and Alejandro Balde, the debate on the goalkeeper role remains and the club are already studying how they can find a succession plan for Robert Lewandowski, who will turn 37 in August this year.

However, it was seen as impossible at the senior offices to find market opportunities to improve the team at the right cost during this window.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

The goal is to get silverware, and they have no reason to believe this is out of reach for them.

Barcelona won Spain’s first trophy of the season – the Spanish Super Cup. They have finished in the second spot of the group phase in the Champions League and are well in La Liga’s title race — just four points behind leaders Real Madrid, despite having an inconsistent run of form by the end of 2024.

The resources are there, now it’s Flick and the players’ responsibility to make the best out of it.

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

They expect to have some money to manoeuvre, although the full amount is still not clear as the delayed works at the new Camp Nou are expected to have an impact on the club’s budget.

There are also the usual caveats that Barcelona’s finances will be a situation to assess when the time comes. However, Barcelona are not expected to splash the cash in the summer.

What is their priority for the summer?

The plans will be shaped by potential departures as well, with the likes of Frenkie de Jong, Andreas Christensen and Araujo facing unclear situations in the summer.

Barcelona are after Jonathan Tah, Bayer Leverkusen’s captain, who would arrive on a free transfer to provide a new asset in the centre-back role, an area where the current players mentioned above could depart. Barcelona representatives have already met with Tah’s camp and are fully aware of his situation.

Deco is also exploring the market for an offensive reinforcement, given the already-mentioned situation with Lewandowski, but there is still a lot of progress to make on that front.

Pol Ballus

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Real Madrid

Was this window a success or a failure for Madrid?

A failure, as the shortage of manpower in defence has not been addressed.

After the muscular injuries to Antonio Rudiger and David Alaba, Real Madrid will face decisive games such as the derby against Atletico Madrid and the first leg of the Champions League against Manchester City with no first-team centre-backs available. Neither the club nor Ancelotti sees Jesus Vallejo as a first-team defender. They also only have one right-back — Lucas Vazquez.

That is despite the club describing this season, with the new Club World Cup starting in June, as the “longest and most demanding in history”.

How much did they spend and how much did they bring in?

Zero.

Was there a standout signing?

No. They tried to bring forward Trent Alexander-Arnold’s arrival but Liverpool rejected that possibility when approached at the end of December.

Are there still any obvious gaps in the team?

Yes.

Only one right-back, Vazquez, has been available since Dani Carvajal’s serious knee injury in October.

Aurelien Tchouameni will have to continue to be used regularly at centre-back. The Frenchman has said in public and in private that he prefers to play in his natural midfield position and his performances in defence have been widely criticised.

In this context, academy centre-back Raul Asencio, who in the summer was not even among the first two backup options, has gained prominence.

Are they now strong enough to achieve their goals for the season?

It depends on who you ask.

The board maintains they are and that there are solutions in the squad and the academy to deal with so many injuries and fight for all the titles.

Carlo Ancelotti, the staff and some players do not feel exactly the same way, although they believe that they will add more titles to the two (UEFA Super Cup and Intercontinental Cup) they have already won.

A prominent training ground source told The Athletic at the beginning of January that: “Without a right-back, it is impossible to win the Champions League.”

Will they have money to spend in the summer?

Yes.

What is their priority for the summer?

Alexander-Arnold, although it’s something that is expected to be solved before.

There are also increasing discussions around Real Sociedad’s Zubimendi. Arsenal are pursuing a deal for the midfielder, whose release clause is €60m, but he is on Madrid’s radar.

The club is also combing the market for a centre-back, but it’s still unclear if they will sign someone for the position.

Mario Cortegana

(Top image — design: Eamonn Dalton, photos: Getty Images)