Throughout the season I’ll be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard. Numbers of course aren’t everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts. This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines. There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.
Fresh off the 4 Nations Face-Off, it’s time to check in for another Awards Watch.
While there hasn’t been a whole lot of change in the new year, especially at the top, it’s still worthwhile to see how the contenders are progressing — and whether any challengers have emerged.
Aside from the Vezina Trophy, each race is still close enough that the finish could be exciting down the stretch. Will the current leaders hold on, or will they be usurped at the last minute?
Based on my interpretation of the numbers, here’s how each key race currently shakes out.
Data as of Feb. 9
Hart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position.
There are a lot of great choices for the Hart this season and it’s hard to go truly wrong.
Leon Draisaitl is the current leader in Net Rating at plus-20.3 for good reason. He’s putting up a career-best all-around season as Edmonton’s primary driver — no small feat on that team. Draisaitl leads the league in goals with 40, is second in points with 83 and has played some shockingly Selke-calibre defense. With a plus-4.6 Defensive Rating, Draisaitl would be a very worthy Selke candidate for anyone willing to look past his lack of penalty-kill time.
The fact Draisaitl is scoring as much as he is on top of that is special — the kind of combination that usually puts Auston Matthews near the top of this list. This year, it’s Draisaitl providing the rare blend of lethal scoring and two-way ability. He’s been a world-class 200-foot player.
As good as Draisaitl has been, however, he’s not quite running away with things just yet. There’s still time for players to make things interesting.
Could a defenseman win (or just be nominated!) for the first time in over two decades? Quinn Hughes has the narrative for it given how well he’s played and how poor the rest of his team has been. But Zach Werenski has a similar argument to be made in Columbus and Cale Makar has been excellent, too.
Could a goalie win for the first time in a decade? Connor Hellebuyck is making a strong case of his own given he’s saved 28 goals above expected this season. By pure value, that’s eight goals clear of Draisaitl. Anyone wishing to go the goalie route this year wouldn’t be wrong to do so. Hellebuyck ranks seventh here, though, because his value lands in the 99.8th percentile of goalies. That’s lower than the six skaters above him compared to other skaters. Comparing goalie value to player value is tricky, but that method aligns with how infrequently goalies win MVP — they need to be head-and-shoulders above the field. Is Hellebuyck far enough ahead?
There are also other forwards who can challenge Draisaitl. Nathan MacKinnon is leading the league in points while Nikita Kucherov (with an improved defensive game!) is leading in points per game and primary points. Both would be worthy options. And then of course there’s still Connor McDavid, who sits just outside the top five even in a down year. Don’t count him out — the best player in the world can still surge down the stretch.
Draisaitl is the top choice at the moment, but some worthy competitors can still make this race interesting.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.
Criteria: Defensemen who play top-pairing minutes, ranked by Net Rating.
Hughes has been the best defenseman in the league this season. Again.
Per 82 games, he’s on pace for 103 points, impressively doing so on a team struggling to generate any offense around him. Hughes leads his team in points by a hefty margin, producing despite a degree of difficulty the other top candidates aren’t bothered by. That, along with some strong underlying numbers, brings Hughes’ Net Rating to plus-28.1 per 82 games. That’s the best mark in the league for a defenseman. It shows in his tracked data from Corey Sznajder as well. When it comes to creating offense and moving the puck up ice, Hughes is always at the top or right near it.
The question with Hughes is how much missing eight games should hurt his chances. To me, that’s not enough time missed to tilt the scales elsewhere. Some may disagree, though, given Makar isn’t that far behind Hughes. Makar is on pace for 32 goals and 91 points and has been stronger defensively than Hughes while playing tougher minutes. He’s been available for 100 percent of Colorado’s games, giving him the current Net Rating lead at plus-18.8. That’s 2.7 goals up on Hughes. Per 82 games, Makar is at plus-27, 1.1 goals back of Hughes.
Some folks out there will discredit Makar for how he does without MacKinnon — or simply because he has a player of MacKinnon’s caliber to lean on, which Hughes does not. While Makar’s performance away from MacKinnon does poke some holes in his case, it is important to not be so decisive when apportioning credit.
The elite results Makar and MacKinnon earn together (62 percent xG and 61 percent of actual goals) aren’t 100 percent because of MacKinnon — Makar deserves equal credit for the beautiful music they make together. Similarly, the lesser results Makar posts away from MacKinnon aren’t 100 percent because of Makar either, especially since MacKinnon’s results away from Makar are also not great. Context matters here and it’s clear Makar’s job when playing away from MacKinnon leans more toward the defensive side on a team that isn’t very deep at forward. And it’s noteworthy that his plus-5.2 Defensive Rating is highest among the top 10 defenders here. In terms of all-around ability, Makar has a strong argument.
After those two, Werenski is having a marvelous season and is the clear-cut No. 3. He has a real shot at challenging the top two and has been incredible this season at both ends of the ice. Werenski has entrenched himself as a franchise defenseman and a no-doubt top-five defender. His on-ice metrics are a shade behind Hughes and Makar, even when accounting for team quality, but the fact he’s kept up with their production is meaningful.
Those three should be on every ballot, but after them is where things get a little murky.
Evan Bouchard, despite what some of his detractors say, is having another elite season cementing himself as one of the game’s best. While his personal production may be down, Bouchard has showcased an improved defensive game where he’s cut down on his chances and goals against. Adam Fox is here as usual and it feels like his season is flying under the radar given the state of the team around him. Fox is putting up career-high marks across the board in his relative on-ice impacts and has been a shining beacon amid an otherwise dim season for the Rangers. The team earns 57 percent of actual goals and 56 percent of expected goals with Fox on the ice this year, the latter of which is a career-best mark for Fox.
Josh Morrissey, Rasmus Dahlin and Victor Hedman are staples worthy of consideration. As is Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton’s defensive conscience next to Bouchard. But the real surprise here is Thomas Harley. If you were shocked by his call-up to Team Canada, make sure you take in some Dallas hockey down the stretch — especially as he fills in for the injured Miro Heiskanen. Harley’s game has taken a big step as he moves up the lineup and his impacts at five-on-five have been extremely strong. He’s a puck-moving force.
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.
There’s still a big question at the top of the Selke ballot: which Panther should it be?
Should it be Aleksander Barkov, the guy who won last year and has always been Florida’s defensive leader? Or should it be Sam Reinhart, Barkov’s wingman who has arguably had a stronger defensive season?
In a sense, the Selke situation is basically a defensive version of the Hart argument in Edmonton. We know Barkov is the best defensive forward in the world, just like we know Connor McDavid is the best player in the world. But this year, it’s the sidekicks that have been more impressive and maybe they deserve their flowers for that.
Between Barkov and Reinhart, it’s Reinhart with the stronger expected goals against rate (1.75 per 60 to Barkov’s 1.96) and it’s Reinhart with the stronger goals against rate too (1.68 to 1.77). Reinhart’s relative impact on expected goals is even stronger thanks to the time Barkov missed where Reinhart continued to excel defensively. That’s what leads to Reinhart’s decisive 2.2-goal lead when it comes to Defensive Rating, a gap that wouldn’t be made up with Barkov playing as many games either. And for those that view the Selke as an all-around award, Reinhart has the lead there as well with a slightly stronger expected and actual goals percentage.
It’s hard not to go with the incumbent, especially for an award that often comes down to reputation. Picking Barkov wouldn’t be the wrong answer given his impact. But Reinhart has been so good defensively this year and it would be a shame not to honor that.
That’s my top two. After that it’s about detangling more teammates who have been shutdown forces. Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel have been awesome in Tampa Bay, though not quite to the same degree as the Florida duo. Tough minutes, defensive zone draws, killing penalties — the Lightning duo have been incredible. Tampa Bay has allowed just 2.09 expected goals against per 60 with Cirelli on the ice while Hagel isn’t far behind. They’ve made life easier for Tampa Bay’s offensive minds and at least one deserves proper representation on the ballot.
After that quartet, there are still some other great options. Jordan Staal (my only exception to the 16 minutes per game rule) and Phillip Danault have been as strong as usual. Ditto for Nico Hischier, who is becoming a Selke mainstay. Anton Lundell is following in his captain’s footsteps. And the Vegas duo of Mark Stone and Jack Eichel have been dominant, too.
There are a lot of strong choices, but the top of the ballot starts in Florida.
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL.
Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position.
Based on Net Rating, there is no gap between Macklin Celebrini and Lane Hutson. Picking between the two will be a challenge.
Both have at least 40 points on the season — an impressive feat for both considering Celebrini managed it in 45 games while Hutson is doing it as a defenseman. Both players are major offensive catalysts for their teams with equally strong relative impacts at five-on-five, though Hutson does give a bit more back defensively. Both dazzle beyond just scoring, too, with some electric highlight reels that hint at some tantalizing upside. Both Celebrini and Hutson are already stars in this league, setting a course for superstardom.
But they have not been the best rookies this season.
That honor should belong to Dustin Wolf, who is putting himself in the Vezina conversation as a rookie goaltender. Wolf has almost single-handedly dragged a very poor Flames team into the West wild-card race — that’s how good he’s been. The Calder should be his to lose.
Comparing a skater’s value to a goalie’s value is a challenge. When it comes to awards voting, the difference between the two often has to be overwhelmingly in the goalie’s favor to make up for the difference in opportunity the goalie has to accrue value. Wolf has a strong case with how he’s played this season.
Wolf’s 10.9 goals saved above expected is a top-10 mark among starters, landing in the 85th percentile among all goalies. By that same rubric, Celebrini’s and Hutson’s Net Ratings land in the 65th percentile among skaters. Apples to apples, Wolf comes out ahead by a significant margin. For Wolf to land in the 65th percentile, his GSAx would have to be closer to 5.3.
That difference certainly feels overwhelming enough to have Wolf as the current Calder front-runner.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.
Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their team’s games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck.
Not much new here: The Vezina is still Hellebuyck’s to lose. There should be no question about who the league’s best goalie is. Hellebuyck now has a .925 on the season and has saved 28 goals above expected, both of which are league-best marks. He is by far the biggest reason the Jets are a top-two team this season and his year-to-year consistency at this level is nothing short of remarkable.
The gap between Hellebuyck and the next-best goalie has closed a bit, though, with Logan Thompson entering the chat. Since the start of the new year, Thompson has saved 11.7 goals above expected to Hellebuyck’s 3.5, according to Evolving Hockey. The difference between the two is now just under five goals. It’s not enough of a surge to make the Vezina race interesting yet, but at the very least, it makes Thompson the clear-cut No. 2 option after Hellebuyck.
After that is where things get interesting. Two goalies on bad teams — Lukas Dostal and Joey Daccord — have admirably held their own despite difficulties in front of them. Ditto for Igor Shesterkin on a middling Rangers team. Mackenzie Blackwood, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Joseph Woll have been rock-solid for their respective clubs, and rookie Wolf is turning heads in a major way.
All very worthy candidates — but they’re fighting for third. The top two look fairly set.
Art Ross Trophy
Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.
This race will probably go down to the wire and will probably be between MacKinnon and Kucherov, both of whom are projected for 126 points. MacKinnon is the current leader with 87, but it’s actually Kucherov who’s leading in points per game at 1.58. Will the final 27 games be enough for Kucherov to make up the five-point gap? It’ll be tight.
Over in Edmonton, Draisaitl now looks like the favorite to challenge the top two. He’s surged over the last month while McDavid has fallen off pace a bit (and missed time to suspension, too). Draisaitl is only four points back of MacKinnon with two games in hand, and with the way he’s playing this year, there’s a decent chance he can continue to produce above his projected output.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the NHL’s top goal scorer.
Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.
Draisaitl pretty much has this one in the bag. He’s already seven goals up on the next closest player, William Nylander, and has a stronger track record, too. He’s projected to win by 10 goals for that reason and, with a projected 57 goals, is the only player this year expected to eclipse the 50-goal mark.
Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick and Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones project
(Photo of Cale Makar: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
