For years, it’s been harder to project pitchers than hitters — for a whole host of reasons. They get injured more and stay injured longer, yes, but they also see their performance change dramatically and quickly in ways that hitters don’t. Think of a pitcher debuting a new pitch: He’s probably a whole new pitcher now, not just the same guy who will return to his previous norms. There really isn’t a corollary for hitters.
But analysts have been hard at work narrowing the gaps. New tools that incorporate physical data from pitches as well as the pitchers’ bodies, paired with better statistical techniques, have improved our pitcher projections. The rankings here attempt to synthesize contemporary research the best way we can. That work includes metrics that will be published here, as well as some behind-the-scenes help:
• Pitching+ and the associated Stuff+ and Location+ models
• Jordan Rosenblum’s stuff-powered projections (ppERA% and ppK%)
• Jeff Zimmerman’s health grades, which he publishes in The Process
• Baseball Prospectus’ new arsenal grades
• Hand-projected innings totals based on health grades, team tendencies, and depth charts
The very best pitchers have elite Stuff+. They locate the ball well as evidenced by their historical walk and Location+ rates. They project well once their park, age, and relevant production are correctly weighted. They have good health grades based on their fastball velocity, age, and number and timing of arm injuries. And they have wide arsenals that can surprise the hitter with a mix of different pitches, shapes and velocities. They’ve built up the bulk needed to go deep into the season and are on a team likely to go with a standard five-man rotation.
Well, wait, that’s just Paul Skenes. For everyone else, we have to figure out how to weigh their different strengths and flaws. That introduces some human bias, but also some opportunity, because every projection system makes its own choices about what goes into the meat grinder, and so there’s a little subjectivity in every effort anyway. A human might just find the pitchers who fall between the cracks in every system.
As an example, Stuff+ has fared remarkably well in predicting the future based on a single model that uses only physical characteristics of pitches as inputs, but as the marketplace has produced more versions of the statistic, it was time for a refresh. The newest numbers, found here and also at FanGraphs in sortable leaderboards, split the single model into multiple ones (swing, take, foul, ball in play, etc), and added features like arm slot (which recently became available at Baseball Savant). In the future, we may find a way to fold in the type of arsenal work being done at Baseball Prospectus and Driveline into the stuff models to have a better idea of how starter’s pitch mixes work, how they change performance and how they can be optimized.
In the meantime, a human can try to look at these different models and weigh them the best they can.
This is a fantasy ranking, so a tough home park might hide the fact that some of these pitchers would be ranked higher in different parks. My bias is toward 15-team leagues with no injured list — you may find that if your league has unlimited IL spots, you’d want to push up the pitchers with great per-inning numbers and lower innings projections. They shouldn’t be hard to find; they ended up clustered together. In a shallower league, you may also want to skip over some of the more boring veterans in the back half of the top 100 in favor of riskier, younger pitchers with less of a track record (say, pick a Kumar Rocker or Jackson Jobe over a Mitch Keller or Max Scherzer). If they don’t work out, your wire is more likely to have a decent replacement waiting for you. As with years past, this google doc will house some goodies during the season like minor league Stuff+ numbers as well as deeper looks at the player pool.
Last year, these ranks produced cheap gems like Seth Lugo, Nestor Cortes, Cristopher Sánchez, Michael King, Bryan Woo, Shota Imanaga, Luis Gil and Jared Jones — along with some mistakes we can learn from. Best of luck as you search for the right pitching staff in your leagues this year.
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That was quite the debut. 133 major league innings of dominance from Paul Skenes produced Rookie of the Year hardware, and rightfully so. In only one start did the opposing offense score more than three runs, and only Garrett Crochet had a better strikeout minus walk rate. Skenes differntiates himself further at the top of the rankings by keeping the ball on the ground and in the park while striking batters out at an elite rate. That, and his combination of youth and health, make him number one.
That was quite the debut. 133 major league innings of dominance from Paul Skenes produced Rookie of the Year hardware, and rightfully so. In only one start did the opposing offense score more than three runs, and only Garrett Crochet had a better strikeout minus walk rate. Skenes differntiates himself further at the top of the rankings by keeping the ball on the ground and in the park while striking batters out at an elite rate. That, and his combination of youth and health, make him number one.
That was quite the debut. 133 major league innings of dominance from Paul Skenes produced Rookie of the Year hardware, and rightfully so. In only one start did the opposing offense score more than three runs, and only Garrett Crochet had a better strikeout minus walk rate. Skenes differntiates himself further at the top of the rankings by keeping the ball on the ground and in the park while striking batters out at an elite rate. That, and his combination of youth and health, make him number one.
Tarik Skubal did it all last year. He was in the zone a ton with command, and he was dominant in the zone with stuff. He threw harder than he’d ever thrown, and he threw more than he’d ever thrown. He didn’t even flag down the stretch. He destroyed lefties thanks to an excellent sinker/slider combo, and he destroyed righties thank to an excellent fastball/changeup combo. He’d been an excellent choice for the top, but there’s just the fact of his arm injuries dragging him all the way down to number two.
Tarik Skubal did it all last year. He was in the zone a ton with command, and he was dominant in the zone with stuff. He threw harder than he’d ever thrown, and he threw more than he’d ever thrown. He didn’t even flag down the stretch. He destroyed lefties thanks to an excellent sinker/slider combo, and he destroyed righties thank to an excellent fastball/changeup combo. He’d been an excellent choice for the top, but there’s just the fact of his arm injuries dragging him all the way down to number two.
Tarik Skubal did it all last year. He was in the zone a ton with command, and he was dominant in the zone with stuff. He threw harder than he’d ever thrown, and he threw more than he’d ever thrown. He didn’t even flag down the stretch. He destroyed lefties thanks to an excellent sinker/slider combo, and he destroyed righties thank to an excellent fastball/changeup combo. He’d been an excellent choice for the top, but there’s just the fact of his arm injuries dragging him all the way down to number two.
It’s been an awesome four-year stretch for Zack Wheeler. He’s maintained a near-30 percent strikeout rate with a miniscule walk rate and deserved every bit of his 2.94 ERA. He’s fiddled with his secondaries — introducing a sweeper, emphasizing and de-emphasizing his cutter, and replacing his changeup with a splitter — but a dominant fastball is still the cornerstone of the whole thing. The injuries of his early career seem long in the rear-view and the only blemish is that, at 34, age has begun robbing him of some of that primo velocity, as he’s down almost two ticks off of his peak.
It’s been an awesome four-year stretch for Zack Wheeler. He’s maintained a near-30 percent strikeout rate with a miniscule walk rate and deserved every bit of his 2.94 ERA. He’s fiddled with his secondaries — introducing a sweeper, emphasizing and de-emphasizing his cutter, and replacing his changeup with a splitter — but a dominant fastball is still the cornerstone of the whole thing. The injuries of his early career seem long in the rear-view and the only blemish is that, at 34, age has begun robbing him of some of that primo velocity, as he’s down almost two ticks off of his peak.
It’s been an awesome four-year stretch for Zack Wheeler. He’s maintained a near-30 percent strikeout rate with a miniscule walk rate and deserved every bit of his 2.94 ERA. He’s fiddled with his secondaries — introducing a sweeper, emphasizing and de-emphasizing his cutter, and replacing his changeup with a splitter — but a dominant fastball is still the cornerstone of the whole thing. The injuries of his early career seem long in the rear-view and the only blemish is that, at 34, age has begun robbing him of some of that primo velocity, as he’s down almost two ticks off of his peak.
Much has been made of Corbin Burnes’ declining strikeout rate, and so you’ll see him lower on other rankings. Here’s why he’s number four here: he has an ‘A’ health grade, his cutter has been excellent at limiting the damage even as the whiffs have decreased, his Stuff+ is still elite, and down the stretch he re-found the movement on his cutter and experimented with what looked like an excellent sweeper. It’s an extremely high floor with even a little ceiling represented by regaining his old strikeout rates with some new wrinkles.
Much has been made of Corbin Burnes’ declining strikeout rate, and so you’ll see him lower on other rankings. Here’s why he’s number four here: he has an ‘A’ health grade, his cutter has been excellent at limiting the damage even as the whiffs have decreased, his Stuff+ is still elite, and down the stretch he re-found the movement on his cutter and experimented with what looked like an excellent sweeper. It’s an extremely high floor with even a little ceiling represented by regaining his old strikeout rates with some new wrinkles.
Much has been made of Corbin Burnes’ declining strikeout rate, and so you’ll see him lower on other rankings. Here’s why he’s number four here: he has an ‘A’ health grade, his cutter has been excellent at limiting the damage even as the whiffs have decreased, his Stuff+ is still elite, and down the stretch he re-found the movement on his cutter and experimented with what looked like an excellent sweeper. It’s an extremely high floor with even a little ceiling represented by regaining his old strikeout rates with some new wrinkles.
Logan Gilbert has a dominant fastball, but over the last three years, he’s improved by changing the arsenal around it. Gone is the changeup, replaced by a splitter. What was a dominant knuckle curve in the minors morphed into a harder, smaller curve last year. He debuted a new cutter. The slider lost its sweep and gained five miles per hour. Not every pitch is dominant, but he adds great command, a developing mound presence, and the benefit of maybe the best pitcher’s park in baseball — which all adds up to an elite floor.
Logan Gilbert has a dominant fastball, but over the last three years, he’s improved by changing the arsenal around it. Gone is the changeup, replaced by a splitter. What was a dominant knuckle curve in the minors morphed into a harder, smaller curve last year. He debuted a new cutter. The slider lost its sweep and gained five miles per hour. Not every pitch is dominant, but he adds great command, a developing mound presence, and the benefit of maybe the best pitcher’s park in baseball — which all adds up to an elite floor.
Logan Gilbert has a dominant fastball, but over the last three years, he’s improved by changing the arsenal around it. Gone is the changeup, replaced by a splitter. What was a dominant knuckle curve in the minors morphed into a harder, smaller curve last year. He debuted a new cutter. The slider lost its sweep and gained five miles per hour. Not every pitch is dominant, but he adds great command, a developing mound presence, and the benefit of maybe the best pitcher’s park in baseball — which all adds up to an elite floor.
There really isn’t anything bad to say about Chris Sale on the mound. He pushed his strikeout rate back north of 30 percent, but it was never really all that much lower even when he struggled for a bit, sorta. His slider and fastball are still dominant, and he made some changes to his offspeed that made it average enough. He even pushed his fastball velo back up to just under 95 mph again. What a return to grace for the 35 year old. You just can’t forget all the struggles that came before, or the fact that his season ended early last year due to injury once again. Expect more like 150 innings and you won’t be dissapointed.
There really isn’t anything bad to say about Chris Sale on the mound. He pushed his strikeout rate back north of 30 percent, but it was never really all that much lower even when he struggled for a bit, sorta. His slider and fastball are still dominant, and he made some changes to his offspeed that made it average enough. He even pushed his fastball velo back up to just under 95 mph again. What a return to grace for the 35 year old. You just can’t forget all the struggles that came before, or the fact that his season ended early last year due to injury once again. Expect more like 150 innings and you won’t be dissapointed.
There really isn’t anything bad to say about Chris Sale on the mound. He pushed his strikeout rate back north of 30 percent, but it was never really all that much lower even when he struggled for a bit, sorta. His slider and fastball are still dominant, and he made some changes to his offspeed that made it average enough. He even pushed his fastball velo back up to just under 95 mph again. What a return to grace for the 35 year old. You just can’t forget all the struggles that came before, or the fact that his season ended early last year due to injury once again. Expect more like 150 innings and you won’t be dissapointed.
The back end of the top ten has some really excellent pitchers that have injury risk. Garrett Crochet fits right in. The lefty dominanted last year thanks to a big-velo fastball and a strong cutter, but he aslo has a sinker and sweeper that he began to weave back into his arsenal late in the season. Could using him every five or six days lead to better health outcomes than the White Sox got from Crochet in the bullpen? It’s certainly possible. But it’s also worth remembering that between 2021 and 2023, Crochet put up fewer than 80 innings combined in three seasons. He’s ramped up fast.
The back end of the top ten has some really excellent pitchers that have injury risk. Garrett Crochet fits right in. The lefty dominanted last year thanks to a big-velo fastball and a strong cutter, but he aslo has a sinker and sweeper that he began to weave back into his arsenal late in the season. Could using him every five or six days lead to better health outcomes than the White Sox got from Crochet in the bullpen? It’s certainly possible. But it’s also worth remembering that between 2021 and 2023, Crochet put up fewer than 80 innings combined in three seasons. He’s ramped up fast.
The back end of the top ten has some really excellent pitchers that have injury risk. Garrett Crochet fits right in. The lefty dominanted last year thanks to a big-velo fastball and a strong cutter, but he aslo has a sinker and sweeper that he began to weave back into his arsenal late in the season. Could using him every five or six days lead to better health outcomes than the White Sox got from Crochet in the bullpen? It’s certainly possible. But it’s also worth remembering that between 2021 and 2023, Crochet put up fewer than 80 innings combined in three seasons. He’s ramped up fast.
Cole Ragans has now been dominant for most of two seasons with the Royals, and the lefty does it with high velocity four-seamers, along with a strong combination of changeups, sliders, cutters, and curves — all thrown with near-average or better command. Again, though, there’s a fair amount of injury risk here for a pitcher that had to revise his Tommy John and missed a huge chunk of time on the way up to the majors. There’s also this: no starting pitcher lost more velocity between April and September than the 1.6 mph Ragans lost off his fastball last season.
Cole Ragans has now been dominant for most of two seasons with the Royals, and the lefty does it with high velocity four-seamers, along with a strong combination of changeups, sliders, cutters, and curves — all thrown with near-average or better command. Again, though, there’s a fair amount of injury risk here for a pitcher that had to revise his Tommy John and missed a huge chunk of time on the way up to the majors. There’s also this: no starting pitcher lost more velocity between April and September than the 1.6 mph Ragans lost off his fastball last season.
Cole Ragans has now been dominant for most of two seasons with the Royals, and the lefty does it with high velocity four-seamers, along with a strong combination of changeups, sliders, cutters, and curves — all thrown with near-average or better command. Again, though, there’s a fair amount of injury risk here for a pitcher that had to revise his Tommy John and missed a huge chunk of time on the way up to the majors. There’s also this: no starting pitcher lost more velocity between April and September than the 1.6 mph Ragans lost off his fastball last season.
The command comes and goes for Dylan Cease, for sure. But the stuff is always there. A huge fastball that hasn’t shown a decline yet, a sizzling slider that has become his main second weapon, and now a change of pace curveball mean that, at the worst, the righty will give you a huge strikeout rate over what has been pretty good bulk for the last four seasons. As for his command, what can you do? It’s probably good news that the team signed Elias Diaz to frame for him, because Luis Campusano is one of the worst at that skill in the majors.
The command comes and goes for Dylan Cease, for sure. But the stuff is always there. A huge fastball that hasn’t shown a decline yet, a sizzling slider that has become his main second weapon, and now a change of pace curveball mean that, at the worst, the righty will give you a huge strikeout rate over what has been pretty good bulk for the last four seasons. As for his command, what can you do? It’s probably good news that the team signed Elias Diaz to frame for him, because Luis Campusano is one of the worst at that skill in the majors.
The command comes and goes for Dylan Cease, for sure. But the stuff is always there. A huge fastball that hasn’t shown a decline yet, a sizzling slider that has become his main second weapon, and now a change of pace curveball mean that, at the worst, the righty will give you a huge strikeout rate over what has been pretty good bulk for the last four seasons. As for his command, what can you do? It’s probably good news that the team signed Elias Diaz to frame for him, because Luis Campusano is one of the worst at that skill in the majors.
We go from a guy that has the stuff and you worry some about the command to perhaps the games’ best command artist in George Kirby. You’ll cede strikeouts with Kirby, but you’ll also gain some floor and some certainty. Should drafters worry about his second half, where he swooned to a 3.93 ERA? Sure, worry about everything. But the good news is that the stuff was just about the same, and that the cause may have been predictabiity: he went above the zone with his fourseamer too often with two strikes, and hitters anticipated it. He can mix it up with command, and should do so again in 2025.
We go from a guy that has the stuff and you worry some about the command to perhaps the games’ best command artist in George Kirby. You’ll cede strikeouts with Kirby, but you’ll also gain some floor and some certainty. Should drafters worry about his second half, where he swooned to a 3.93 ERA? Sure, worry about everything. But the good news is that the stuff was just about the same, and that the cause may have been predictabiity: he went above the zone with his fourseamer too often with two strikes, and hitters anticipated it. He can mix it up with command, and should do so again in 2025.
We go from a guy that has the stuff and you worry some about the command to perhaps the games’ best command artist in George Kirby. You’ll cede strikeouts with Kirby, but you’ll also gain some floor and some certainty. Should drafters worry about his second half, where he swooned to a 3.93 ERA? Sure, worry about everything. But the good news is that the stuff was just about the same, and that the cause may have been predictabiity: he went above the zone with his fourseamer too often with two strikes, and hitters anticipated it. He can mix it up with command, and should do so again in 2025.
If you include the postseason, Gerrit Cole threw 124 innings with a 3.12 ERA, so you could make an argument that his demise was exagerrated. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, since he slipped to the worst strikeout and swinging strike rates he’s shown in the last six years, and his velocity dipped nearly a whole tick. This might surprise you, though: Cole had almost the exact Stuff+ ratings on all his pitches in 2024 as he did in 2023. The lack of whiffs mostly had to do with him throwing more cutters than sliders. Seems like an easy fix for a pitcher that has otherwise been a high-volume stud for most of a decade.
If you include the postseason, Gerrit Cole threw 124 innings with a 3.12 ERA, so you could make an argument that his demise was exagerrated. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, since he slipped to the worst strikeout and swinging strike rates he’s shown in the last six years, and his velocity dipped nearly a whole tick. This might surprise you, though: Cole had almost the exact Stuff+ ratings on all his pitches in 2024 as he did in 2023. The lack of whiffs mostly had to do with him throwing more cutters than sliders. Seems like an easy fix for a pitcher that has otherwise been a high-volume stud for most of a decade.
If you include the postseason, Gerrit Cole threw 124 innings with a 3.12 ERA, so you could make an argument that his demise was exagerrated. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, since he slipped to the worst strikeout and swinging strike rates he’s shown in the last six years, and his velocity dipped nearly a whole tick. This might surprise you, though: Cole had almost the exact Stuff+ ratings on all his pitches in 2024 as he did in 2023. The lack of whiffs mostly had to do with him throwing more cutters than sliders. Seems like an easy fix for a pitcher that has otherwise been a high-volume stud for most of a decade.
Only eight pitchers have thrown more innings since 2021 started, and only four pitchers have thrown 500+ innings and also put up a better ERA than the 3.08 Framber Valdez sported over that time frame. The floor, provided by his excellent sinker and breaking ball combo, is super high. The upside comes from the years when he feels better, goes deeper into the season, and has better command — just remember the 200+ innings of a 2.82 ERA in 2022. Here’s a place where you can get value on a pitcher if you don’t chase the strikeout rate.
Only eight pitchers have thrown more innings since 2021 started, and only four pitchers have thrown 500+ innings and also put up a better ERA than the 3.08 Framber Valdez sported over that time frame. The floor, provided by his excellent sinker and breaking ball combo, is super high. The upside comes from the years when he feels better, goes deeper into the season, and has better command — just remember the 200+ innings of a 2.82 ERA in 2022. Here’s a place where you can get value on a pitcher if you don’t chase the strikeout rate.
Only eight pitchers have thrown more innings since 2021 started, and only four pitchers have thrown 500+ innings and also put up a better ERA than the 3.08 Framber Valdez sported over that time frame. The floor, provided by his excellent sinker and breaking ball combo, is super high. The upside comes from the years when he feels better, goes deeper into the season, and has better command — just remember the 200+ innings of a 2.82 ERA in 2022. Here’s a place where you can get value on a pitcher if you don’t chase the strikeout rate.
Once a pitcher is over 1000 innings into their career — heck once a pitcher is over 10 starts into his career — Stuff+ should not be the only metric used to judge them. At this point, we have plenty of seasons where the lefty has shown he can strike out nearly a third of the batters he sees, keep the ball in the park, and suppress hits. He does alternate healthy seasons with less healthy ones, but he’s also bottomed out at a respectable 104 innings and was almost a top 50 pitcher last year. He might lead this injury risk Dodger squad in innings, even.
Once a pitcher is over 1000 innings into their career — heck once a pitcher is over 10 starts into his career — Stuff+ should not be the only metric used to judge them. At this point, we have plenty of seasons where the lefty has shown he can strike out nearly a third of the batters he sees, keep the ball in the park, and suppress hits. He does alternate healthy seasons with less healthy ones, but he’s also bottomed out at a respectable 104 innings and was almost a top 50 pitcher last year. He might lead this injury risk Dodger squad in innings, even.
Once a pitcher is over 1000 innings into their career — heck once a pitcher is over 10 starts into his career — Stuff+ should not be the only metric used to judge them. At this point, we have plenty of seasons where the lefty has shown he can strike out nearly a third of the batters he sees, keep the ball in the park, and suppress hits. He does alternate healthy seasons with less healthy ones, but he’s also bottomed out at a respectable 104 innings and was almost a top 50 pitcher last year. He might lead this injury risk Dodger squad in innings, even.
It’s impossible to get the *right* ranking for Jacob deGrom. Over the last four years, he has the best starter’s ERA (2.01), supported by the best starter’s K-BB rate (39.2 percent!!) and the best starter’s Stuff+ (123). All of that is great. He’s thrown 190 innings combined over those four seasons. Less great. He’s got a new ligament, though, and Paul Skenes was the fifth-best pitcher in fantasy last year with 133 innings — could deGrom get there? Does your league have injured list slots? What do you do when he’s hurt and doesn’t have a timeline? How much are you willing to invest? deGoat was in my top ten at one point, but this feels like a better place for the innings risk.
It’s impossible to get the *right* ranking for Jacob deGrom. Over the last four years, he has the best starter’s ERA (2.01), supported by the best starter’s K-BB rate (39.2 percent!!) and the best starter’s Stuff+ (123). All of that is great. He’s thrown 190 innings combined over those four seasons. Less great. He’s got a new ligament, though, and Paul Skenes was the fifth-best pitcher in fantasy last year with 133 innings — could deGrom get there? Does your league have injured list slots? What do you do when he’s hurt and doesn’t have a timeline? How much are you willing to invest? deGoat was in my top ten at one point, but this feels like a better place for the innings risk.
It’s impossible to get the *right* ranking for Jacob deGrom. Over the last four years, he has the best starter’s ERA (2.01), supported by the best starter’s K-BB rate (39.2 percent!!) and the best starter’s Stuff+ (123). All of that is great. He’s thrown 190 innings combined over those four seasons. Less great. He’s got a new ligament, though, and Paul Skenes was the fifth-best pitcher in fantasy last year with 133 innings — could deGrom get there? Does your league have injured list slots? What do you do when he’s hurt and doesn’t have a timeline? How much are you willing to invest? deGoat was in my top ten at one point, but this feels like a better place for the innings risk.
Giving Tyler Glasnow this ranking along with 128 projected innings might be folly, but the dude was the 24th-best fantasy pitcher last year with only 134 innings, and he could actually be even better in 2025 — in fact practically every projection system says his ERA will be lower than the 3.49 he showed last year. SIERA, a reliable ERA estimator, said he should’ve had a number south of three last year. If he just re-racks what he did last year with a better ERA, he’ll easily be worth this rank.
Giving Tyler Glasnow this ranking along with 128 projected innings might be folly, but the dude was the 24th-best fantasy pitcher last year with only 134 innings, and he could actually be even better in 2025 — in fact practically every projection system says his ERA will be lower than the 3.49 he showed last year. SIERA, a reliable ERA estimator, said he should’ve had a number south of three last year. If he just re-racks what he did last year with a better ERA, he’ll easily be worth this rank.
Giving Tyler Glasnow this ranking along with 128 projected innings might be folly, but the dude was the 24th-best fantasy pitcher last year with only 134 innings, and he could actually be even better in 2025 — in fact practically every projection system says his ERA will be lower than the 3.49 he showed last year. SIERA, a reliable ERA estimator, said he should’ve had a number south of three last year. If he just re-racks what he did last year with a better ERA, he’ll easily be worth this rank.
There are worries. He’s moving into a Yankee stadium that Statcast said was the third-friendliest park to the home run over the last three years. He had that forearm problem a while back. He has those low strikeout rates. But Max Fried is a lefty that can help suppress lefty homers, has experience in a homer-friendly park, and has had success with low strikeout rates before, probably due to having a whopping five above-average pitches by both Stuff+ and Location+. If you can stomach a little bit of injury risk, the rest doesn’t seem all that risky.
There are worries. He’s moving into a Yankee stadium that Statcast said was the third-friendliest park to the home run over the last three years. He had that forearm problem a while back. He has those low strikeout rates. But Max Fried is a lefty that can help suppress lefty homers, has experience in a homer-friendly park, and has had success with low strikeout rates before, probably due to having a whopping five above-average pitches by both Stuff+ and Location+. If you can stomach a little bit of injury risk, the rest doesn’t seem all that risky.
There are worries. He’s moving into a Yankee stadium that Statcast said was the third-friendliest park to the home run over the last three years. He had that forearm problem a while back. He has those low strikeout rates. But Max Fried is a lefty that can help suppress lefty homers, has experience in a homer-friendly park, and has had success with low strikeout rates before, probably due to having a whopping five above-average pitches by both Stuff+ and Location+. If you can stomach a little bit of injury risk, the rest doesn’t seem all that risky.
Hunter Brown has it all. He has a good fastball, 96+ with decent shape. He has a 92 mph slider/cutter thing that’s pretty awesome. He has another high eighties slider he can go to. Stuff+ likes his mid-eighties curveball too, and his changeup is aight. Despite poor command grades in the minors, he’s never had a bad walk rate in the majors. He’s got bulk and an ‘A’ health grade. Hunter Brown has it all — at least now that he added a plus sinker to the package and widened his arsenal. Since he did that, he’s sported a 2.48 ERA and become an ace.
Hunter Brown has it all. He has a good fastball, 96+ with decent shape. He has a 92 mph slider/cutter thing that’s pretty awesome. He has another high eighties slider he can go to. Stuff+ likes his mid-eighties curveball too, and his changeup is aight. Despite poor command grades in the minors, he’s never had a bad walk rate in the majors. He’s got bulk and an ‘A’ health grade. Hunter Brown has it all — at least now that he added a plus sinker to the package and widened his arsenal. Since he did that, he’s sported a 2.48 ERA and become an ace.
Hunter Brown has it all. He has a good fastball, 96+ with decent shape. He has a 92 mph slider/cutter thing that’s pretty awesome. He has another high eighties slider he can go to. Stuff+ likes his mid-eighties curveball too, and his changeup is aight. Despite poor command grades in the minors, he’s never had a bad walk rate in the majors. He’s got bulk and an ‘A’ health grade. Hunter Brown has it all — at least now that he added a plus sinker to the package and widened his arsenal. Since he did that, he’s sported a 2.48 ERA and become an ace.
Despite not having a great slider, Grayson Rodriguez has all the parts that he could put together this year and break out into being a top-ten type pitcher. A plus-plus fastball, an elite changeup, and a good curve are the foundation, but he’s also demonstrated above-average command, and despite some missed time last year, has not developed a reputation for being injury-prone yet. The cutter didn’t work for him in 2023, but using it sparingly, along with his average slider, should be enough to improve his splits against righties and leap into stardom.
Despite not having a great slider, Grayson Rodriguez has all the parts that he could put together this year and break out into being a top-ten type pitcher. A plus-plus fastball, an elite changeup, and a good curve are the foundation, but he’s also demonstrated above-average command, and despite some missed time last year, has not developed a reputation for being injury-prone yet. The cutter didn’t work for him in 2023, but using it sparingly, along with his average slider, should be enough to improve his splits against righties and leap into stardom.
Despite not having a great slider, Grayson Rodriguez has all the parts that he could put together this year and break out into being a top-ten type pitcher. A plus-plus fastball, an elite changeup, and a good curve are the foundation, but he’s also demonstrated above-average command, and despite some missed time last year, has not developed a reputation for being injury-prone yet. The cutter didn’t work for him in 2023, but using it sparingly, along with his average slider, should be enough to improve his splits against righties and leap into stardom.
A former reliever, Bryce Miller has an outstanding fastball full of vim and vigor. He’s been trying to put the right pitches around it since his debut. The sweeper has required some attention because its release makes it obvious to the hitter — they don’t swing. They gyro slider is decent but gave up some high slugging numbers last year. The new splitter is the key, especially if his offseason work refines one of his breaking balls into a plus-plus offering. This praise is too faint: Miller had flaws last year… and put up a 2.94 ERA in 180+ innings.
A former reliever, Bryce Miller has an outstanding fastball full of vim and vigor. He’s been trying to put the right pitches around it since his debut. The sweeper has required some attention because its release makes it obvious to the hitter — they don’t swing. They gyro slider is decent but gave up some high slugging numbers last year. The new splitter is the key, especially if his offseason work refines one of his breaking balls into a plus-plus offering. This praise is too faint: Miller had flaws last year… and put up a 2.94 ERA in 180+ innings.
A former reliever, Bryce Miller has an outstanding fastball full of vim and vigor. He’s been trying to put the right pitches around it since his debut. The sweeper has required some attention because its release makes it obvious to the hitter — they don’t swing. They gyro slider is decent but gave up some high slugging numbers last year. The new splitter is the key, especially if his offseason work refines one of his breaking balls into a plus-plus offering. This praise is too faint: Miller had flaws last year… and put up a 2.94 ERA in 180+ innings.
Every year, the warm-weather bump in fastball velocity brings a little less back to Luis Castillo’s four-seamer. Every year, the former sinker/changeup pitcher gets a little further away from his ground-ball and home-run suppressing ways. The new Castillo, based more on a four-seam slider combo, has been really great, but at 32 there’s just enough in the profile to make you wonder. Are his low-threes ERA days behind him? Are the elite strikeout rates done? If so, he’ll just be a really high floor stud, as long as he’s still in Seattle.
Every year, the warm-weather bump in fastball velocity brings a little less back to Luis Castillo’s four-seamer. Every year, the former sinker/changeup pitcher gets a little further away from his ground-ball and home-run suppressing ways. The new Castillo, based more on a four-seam slider combo, has been really great, but at 32 there’s just enough in the profile to make you wonder. Are his low-threes ERA days behind him? Are the elite strikeout rates done? If so, he’ll just be a really high floor stud, as long as he’s still in Seattle.
Every year, the warm-weather bump in fastball velocity brings a little less back to Luis Castillo’s four-seamer. Every year, the former sinker/changeup pitcher gets a little further away from his ground-ball and home-run suppressing ways. The new Castillo, based more on a four-seam slider combo, has been really great, but at 32 there’s just enough in the profile to make you wonder. Are his low-threes ERA days behind him? Are the elite strikeout rates done? If so, he’ll just be a really high floor stud, as long as he’s still in Seattle.
Can you wait? Can you wait as much as a month for one of your top pitchers to even pitch? Because if your roster and your team settings allow it, Spencer Strider is worth waiting for. There’s a little bit of good news in that it wasn’t a complete tear of his elbow ligament, and he underwent an Internal Brace surgery instead of a full Tommy John, but with the Braves likely to play in October, they’ll want to shift some of his innings into that month. And there’s the wrinkle that we haven’t seen Strider pitch post-surgery yet. But otherwise, what’s the big difference between him and deGrom?
Can you wait? Can you wait as much as a month for one of your top pitchers to even pitch? Because if your roster and your team settings allow it, Spencer Strider is worth waiting for. There’s a little bit of good news in that it wasn’t a complete tear of his elbow ligament, and he underwent an Internal Brace surgery instead of a full Tommy John, but with the Braves likely to play in October, they’ll want to shift some of his innings into that month. And there’s the wrinkle that we haven’t seen Strider pitch post-surgery yet. But otherwise, what’s the big difference between him and deGrom?
Can you wait? Can you wait as much as a month for one of your top pitchers to even pitch? Because if your roster and your team settings allow it, Spencer Strider is worth waiting for. There’s a little bit of good news in that it wasn’t a complete tear of his elbow ligament, and he underwent an Internal Brace surgery instead of a full Tommy John, but with the Braves likely to play in October, they’ll want to shift some of his innings into that month. And there’s the wrinkle that we haven’t seen Strider pitch post-surgery yet. But otherwise, what’s the big difference between him and deGrom?
You can take the Spencer Strider blurb and copy and paste it here, but Shohei Ohtani’s value is even more league-specific. If you’re in a league where he’s hitter- and pitcher-eligible in daily lineups and he’s one player, then he’s easily the most valuable player in your league by far. If you’re in a weekly league, he’s probably a hitter most weeks. But in some leagues, you can take him as a pitcher, and in those, you’ll want to be able to put him on the injured list to start the season, and you’ll also have to know his innings will be limited by the Dodger’s six-man rotation.
You can take the Spencer Strider blurb and copy and paste it here, but Shohei Ohtani’s value is even more league-specific. If you’re in a league where he’s hitter- and pitcher-eligible in daily lineups and he’s one player, then he’s easily the most valuable player in your league by far. If you’re in a weekly league, he’s probably a hitter most weeks. But in some leagues, you can take him as a pitcher, and in those, you’ll want to be able to put him on the injured list to start the season, and you’ll also have to know his innings will be limited by the Dodger’s six-man rotation.
You can take the Spencer Strider blurb and copy and paste it here, but Shohei Ohtani’s value is even more league-specific. If you’re in a league where he’s hitter- and pitcher-eligible in daily lineups and he’s one player, then he’s easily the most valuable player in your league by far. If you’re in a weekly league, he’s probably a hitter most weeks. But in some leagues, you can take him as a pitcher, and in those, you’ll want to be able to put him on the injured list to start the season, and you’ll also have to know his innings will be limited by the Dodger’s six-man rotation.
The revelation that Roki Sasaki considered having Tommy John in Japan but chose not to was a little troublesome in light of his declining stuff and velocity loss last year in that league. It seems likely he will end up missing significant time in the next few seasons, and that it’s just a question of when, not if. Then there are the questions about his stuff: his fastball shape is meh, his breaking balls aren’t great, and he doesn’t have great spin or feel for it. But 100-120 innings of peak Kevin Gausman as a floor doesn’t seem all that bad anyway.
The revelation that Roki Sasaki considered having Tommy John in Japan but chose not to was a little troublesome in light of his declining stuff and velocity loss last year in that league. It seems likely he will end up missing significant time in the next few seasons, and that it’s just a question of when, not if. Then there are the questions about his stuff: his fastball shape is meh, his breaking balls aren’t great, and he doesn’t have great spin or feel for it. But 100-120 innings of peak Kevin Gausman as a floor doesn’t seem all that bad anyway.
The revelation that Roki Sasaki considered having Tommy John in Japan but chose not to was a little troublesome in light of his declining stuff and velocity loss last year in that league. It seems likely he will end up missing significant time in the next few seasons, and that it’s just a question of when, not if. Then there are the questions about his stuff: his fastball shape is meh, his breaking balls aren’t great, and he doesn’t have great spin or feel for it. But 100-120 innings of peak Kevin Gausman as a floor doesn’t seem all that bad anyway.
After being largely healthy and incredibly dominant in Japan, Yoshinobu Yamamoto came to MLB and missed half the season with injury… but still was pretty dominant. Maybe his excellent results were slightly more a result of command than stuff, but that was always part of the package anyway. It’s not like he’s a soft-tosser, with a 95.6 mph fastball, it’s just that none of his pitches is an elite combo of velocity and shape. The good news is that the Dodgers found him a good slider, the bad news is that the Dodgers will end up limiting his innings via the six-man rotation even if he’s fully healthy in 2025.
After being largely healthy and incredibly dominant in Japan, Yoshinobu Yamamoto came to MLB and missed half the season with injury… but still was pretty dominant. Maybe his excellent results were slightly more a result of command than stuff, but that was always part of the package anyway. It’s not like he’s a soft-tosser, with a 95.6 mph fastball, it’s just that none of his pitches is an elite combo of velocity and shape. The good news is that the Dodgers found him a good slider, the bad news is that the Dodgers will end up limiting his innings via the six-man rotation even if he’s fully healthy in 2025.
After being largely healthy and incredibly dominant in Japan, Yoshinobu Yamamoto came to MLB and missed half the season with injury… but still was pretty dominant. Maybe his excellent results were slightly more a result of command than stuff, but that was always part of the package anyway. It’s not like he’s a soft-tosser, with a 95.6 mph fastball, it’s just that none of his pitches is an elite combo of velocity and shape. The good news is that the Dodgers found him a good slider, the bad news is that the Dodgers will end up limiting his innings via the six-man rotation even if he’s fully healthy in 2025.
Always a steady performer, it’s been three years since Pablo Lopez put up ace-like numbers. That said, he’s been a top-50 pitcher for three straight years and seems to have a steadiness to his value. A changeup that might be undervalued by stuff metrics, two decent fastballs, and two decent breaking balls gives him a large arsenal with good velo and command. The health woes of the past seem to be fully behind him, and he’s become a great pick for floor, with the obvious ability to put together a top-20 season. Pair him with a riskier ace like Garrett Crochet, and you might prosper.
Always a steady performer, it’s been three years since Pablo Lopez put up ace-like numbers. That said, he’s been a top-50 pitcher for three straight years and seems to have a steadiness to his value. A changeup that might be undervalued by stuff metrics, two decent fastballs, and two decent breaking balls gives him a large arsenal with good velo and command. The health woes of the past seem to be fully behind him, and he’s become a great pick for floor, with the obvious ability to put together a top-20 season. Pair him with a riskier ace like Garrett Crochet, and you might prosper.
Always a steady performer, it’s been three years since Pablo Lopez put up ace-like numbers. That said, he’s been a top-50 pitcher for three straight years and seems to have a steadiness to his value. A changeup that might be undervalued by stuff metrics, two decent fastballs, and two decent breaking balls gives him a large arsenal with good velo and command. The health woes of the past seem to be fully behind him, and he’s become a great pick for floor, with the obvious ability to put together a top-20 season. Pair him with a riskier ace like Garrett Crochet, and you might prosper.
You’ll get a good ERA and tons of innings from Logan Webb, so he’s an ideal pairing with a higher-risk, higher-stuff, higher-strikeout rate ace. You’ll take a hit in terms of strikeouts per inning or batter, but he also goes deep into games and gets decisions, so there are a lot of benefits to his approach. Could he bump that strikeout rate a little? Maybe. A new cutter and a sweeper that had the best shape of its life last season could combine with his dominant sinker and changeup combo to produce a season with a tiny ERA and a strikeout rate like he put up in 2021. That’d make him a top-ten starter again.
You’ll get a good ERA and tons of innings from Logan Webb, so he’s an ideal pairing with a higher-risk, higher-stuff, higher-strikeout rate ace. You’ll take a hit in terms of strikeouts per inning or batter, but he also goes deep into games and gets decisions, so there are a lot of benefits to his approach. Could he bump that strikeout rate a little? Maybe. A new cutter and a sweeper that had the best shape of its life last season could combine with his dominant sinker and changeup combo to produce a season with a tiny ERA and a strikeout rate like he put up in 2021. That’d make him a top-ten starter again.
You’ll get a good ERA and tons of innings from Logan Webb, so he’s an ideal pairing with a higher-risk, higher-stuff, higher-strikeout rate ace. You’ll take a hit in terms of strikeouts per inning or batter, but he also goes deep into games and gets decisions, so there are a lot of benefits to his approach. Could he bump that strikeout rate a little? Maybe. A new cutter and a sweeper that had the best shape of its life last season could combine with his dominant sinker and changeup combo to produce a season with a tiny ERA and a strikeout rate like he put up in 2021. That’d make him a top-ten starter again.
We’ve got a little bit of a mini-tier here with a few pitchers that should be good for bulk, but may not have the upside to become your number one starter. There’s a place for these guys on every roster, especially with the health risk associated with some of the second-tier aces before them. Aaron Nola’s park and (perhaps associated) long run of giving up a decent amount of homers counteracts his great combination of stuff and command, but he has been making some adjustments. The new cutter gives him three fastballs he can pair with that dominant curve, at least. Take him for innings, they’ll probably be good.
We’ve got a little bit of a mini-tier here with a few pitchers that should be good for bulk, but may not have the upside to become your number one starter. There’s a place for these guys on every roster, especially with the health risk associated with some of the second-tier aces before them. Aaron Nola’s park and (perhaps associated) long run of giving up a decent amount of homers counteracts his great combination of stuff and command, but he has been making some adjustments. The new cutter gives him three fastballs he can pair with that dominant curve, at least. Take him for innings, they’ll probably be good.
We’ve got a little bit of a mini-tier here with a few pitchers that should be good for bulk, but may not have the upside to become your number one starter. There’s a place for these guys on every roster, especially with the health risk associated with some of the second-tier aces before them. Aaron Nola’s park and (perhaps associated) long run of giving up a decent amount of homers counteracts his great combination of stuff and command, but he has been making some adjustments. The new cutter gives him three fastballs he can pair with that dominant curve, at least. Take him for innings, they’ll probably be good.
Michael King’s stuff, as a starter, has been a little reduced, but you wouldn’t know it from his on-field results last season. That changeup, as an example, does have movement that hitters can easily associate with his arm slot — but King puts it on a dime on the outside corner. That great command should still be there in 2025, but it’s a riskier bet than stuff, which is stickier year to year. And then there is that gruesome injury history for King, which might be behind him, until it isn’t. He’s an excellent starter but just putting him down for 170 more innigns of a sub-three ERA is being too optimistic.
Michael King’s stuff, as a starter, has been a little reduced, but you wouldn’t know it from his on-field results last season. That changeup, as an example, does have movement that hitters can easily associate with his arm slot — but King puts it on a dime on the outside corner. That great command should still be there in 2025, but it’s a riskier bet than stuff, which is stickier year to year. And then there is that gruesome injury history for King, which might be behind him, until it isn’t. He’s an excellent starter but just putting him down for 170 more innigns of a sub-three ERA is being too optimistic.
Michael King’s stuff, as a starter, has been a little reduced, but you wouldn’t know it from his on-field results last season. That changeup, as an example, does have movement that hitters can easily associate with his arm slot — but King puts it on a dime on the outside corner. That great command should still be there in 2025, but it’s a riskier bet than stuff, which is stickier year to year. And then there is that gruesome injury history for King, which might be behind him, until it isn’t. He’s an excellent starter but just putting him down for 170 more innigns of a sub-three ERA is being too optimistic.
On his way to a breakout season until an injury felled him, Joe Ryan has a tantalizing set of skills. Excellent command of a fastball that jumps on hitters due to its shape and release is at the core. He’s been toggling between a sweeper and a hard gyro slider the last few years and seemed to have found the right combo in 2024. He dialed in the splitter, too — batters hit .204 on his splitter and sweeper combined. He lives high in the zone, so he’ll always give up some homers, but the new mix is going to provide strikeouts by the bushel. Innings might be the only question.
On his way to a breakout season until an injury felled him, Joe Ryan has a tantalizing set of skills. Excellent command of a fastball that jumps on hitters due to its shape and release is at the core. He’s been toggling between a sweeper and a hard gyro slider the last few years and seemed to have found the right combo in 2024. He dialed in the splitter, too — batters hit .204 on his splitter and sweeper combined. He lives high in the zone, so he’ll always give up some homers, but the new mix is going to provide strikeouts by the bushel. Innings might be the only question.
On his way to a breakout season until an injury felled him, Joe Ryan has a tantalizing set of skills. Excellent command of a fastball that jumps on hitters due to its shape and release is at the core. He’s been toggling between a sweeper and a hard gyro slider the last few years and seemed to have found the right combo in 2024. He dialed in the splitter, too — batters hit .204 on his splitter and sweeper combined. He lives high in the zone, so he’ll always give up some homers, but the new mix is going to provide strikeouts by the bushel. Innings might be the only question.
Perhaps its his crossfire mechanics. Maybe it’s his extreme extension. Could be the park, to some extent. But for whatever reason, Freddy Peralta is usually good for a dominant stretch and a stretch that inches him closer to your bench. Over the last three years, his ERA has been more than a run higher in the first half. That kind of split is not predictive, but it does speak to his streakiness, even if he’s evolved past being Fastball Freddy and now has a strong four-pitch mix that produces strikeouts even during the Bad Times. What if he had a season that was only second halves put together?
Perhaps its his crossfire mechanics. Maybe it’s his extreme extension. Could be the park, to some extent. But for whatever reason, Freddy Peralta is usually good for a dominant stretch and a stretch that inches him closer to your bench. Over the last three years, his ERA has been more than a run higher in the first half. That kind of split is not predictive, but it does speak to his streakiness, even if he’s evolved past being Fastball Freddy and now has a strong four-pitch mix that produces strikeouts even during the Bad Times. What if he had a season that was only second halves put together?
Perhaps its his crossfire mechanics. Maybe it’s his extreme extension. Could be the park, to some extent. But for whatever reason, Freddy Peralta is usually good for a dominant stretch and a stretch that inches him closer to your bench. Over the last three years, his ERA has been more than a run higher in the first half. That kind of split is not predictive, but it does speak to his streakiness, even if he’s evolved past being Fastball Freddy and now has a strong four-pitch mix that produces strikeouts even during the Bad Times. What if he had a season that was only second halves put together?
It’s not a good fastball for Tanner Bibee. It has slightly above-average velocity for a starter, but only barely, and the shape is dead zone — exactly what a hitter would expect given his arm slot. Good thing he has a really good hard slider / cutter thing that he can command really well, and a good curve and change behind it. There are some similarities to Shane Bieber here, so maybe we shouldn’t make too much of that fastball. Still, it limits Bibee’s upside and puts pressure on him to perhaps develop another hard pitch and lean into a wide arsenal. There’s some upside, but top ten? Not sure.
It’s not a good fastball for Tanner Bibee. It has slightly above-average velocity for a starter, but only barely, and the shape is dead zone — exactly what a hitter would expect given his arm slot. Good thing he has a really good hard slider / cutter thing that he can command really well, and a good curve and change behind it. There are some similarities to Shane Bieber here, so maybe we shouldn’t make too much of that fastball. Still, it limits Bibee’s upside and puts pressure on him to perhaps develop another hard pitch and lean into a wide arsenal. There’s some upside, but top ten? Not sure.
It’s not a good fastball for Tanner Bibee. It has slightly above-average velocity for a starter, but only barely, and the shape is dead zone — exactly what a hitter would expect given his arm slot. Good thing he has a really good hard slider / cutter thing that he can command really well, and a good curve and change behind it. There are some similarities to Shane Bieber here, so maybe we shouldn’t make too much of that fastball. Still, it limits Bibee’s upside and puts pressure on him to perhaps develop another hard pitch and lean into a wide arsenal. There’s some upside, but top ten? Not sure.
Though his mound presence is more quiet than ferocious, Bryan Woo’s stuff would get Ric Flair’s attention. One of only 15 starters that had above-average Stuff+ on both their four-seamer and sinker, the righty backed that up with an excellent sweeper and a changeup that batters hit .186 off of last season. If he could throw the gyro slider a little harder, he could maybe strike out more lefties and push his overall rate above average, but as is he has the makings of a soft contact king, with risk (innings) and upside (more Ks) in equal abundance.
Though his mound presence is more quiet than ferocious, Bryan Woo’s stuff would get Ric Flair’s attention. One of only 15 starters that had above-average Stuff+ on both their four-seamer and sinker, the righty backed that up with an excellent sweeper and a changeup that batters hit .186 off of last season. If he could throw the gyro slider a little harder, he could maybe strike out more lefties and push his overall rate above average, but as is he has the makings of a soft contact king, with risk (innings) and upside (more Ks) in equal abundance.
Though his mound presence is more quiet than ferocious, Bryan Woo’s stuff would get Ric Flair’s attention. One of only 15 starters that had above-average Stuff+ on both their four-seamer and sinker, the righty backed that up with an excellent sweeper and a changeup that batters hit .186 off of last season. If he could throw the gyro slider a little harder, he could maybe strike out more lefties and push his overall rate above average, but as is he has the makings of a soft contact king, with risk (innings) and upside (more Ks) in equal abundance.
Hunter Greene is a stuffist. Only Garrett Crochet threw 120 innings and had a better Stuff+ last year, and it’s obvious from the radar gun alone. Beyond his 98 mph fastball, he throws a hard slider and mixed in a promising splitter last year. It’s just a shame he has to pitch in one of the toughest parks in the majors. Oh, and he throws so hard — over the last two years, ten of the 15 starters that averaged 96.5 mph or better on their fastball have missed time with serious injury (five had Tommy John). But other than that, he’s exciting as heck.
Hunter Greene is a stuffist. Only Garrett Crochet threw 120 innings and had a better Stuff+ last year, and it’s obvious from the radar gun alone. Beyond his 98 mph fastball, he throws a hard slider and mixed in a promising splitter last year. It’s just a shame he has to pitch in one of the toughest parks in the majors. Oh, and he throws so hard — over the last two years, ten of the 15 starters that averaged 96.5 mph or better on their fastball have missed time with serious injury (five had Tommy John). But other than that, he’s exciting as heck.
Hunter Greene is a stuffist. Only Garrett Crochet threw 120 innings and had a better Stuff+ last year, and it’s obvious from the radar gun alone. Beyond his 98 mph fastball, he throws a hard slider and mixed in a promising splitter last year. It’s just a shame he has to pitch in one of the toughest parks in the majors. Oh, and he throws so hard — over the last two years, ten of the 15 starters that averaged 96.5 mph or better on their fastball have missed time with serious injury (five had Tommy John). But other than that, he’s exciting as heck.
Between the majors and minors last year, Spencer Schwellenbach threw 168.2 innings. That’s good news for his ability to go deep into 2025. But before that, the former shortstop in college had never topped 70 innings in a season, so you might count that as a fairly large increase and worry about it. Don’t worry about the stuff, though. He has a funky combination of release point and shape on his fastball, and a large arsenal of legit offerings — he threw six different pitches more than 100 times last year. And all of them were decent!
Between the majors and minors last year, Spencer Schwellenbach threw 168.2 innings. That’s good news for his ability to go deep into 2025. But before that, the former shortstop in college had never topped 70 innings in a season, so you might count that as a fairly large increase and worry about it. Don’t worry about the stuff, though. He has a funky combination of release point and shape on his fastball, and a large arsenal of legit offerings — he threw six different pitches more than 100 times last year. And all of them were decent!
Between the majors and minors last year, Spencer Schwellenbach threw 168.2 innings. That’s good news for his ability to go deep into 2025. But before that, the former shortstop in college had never topped 70 innings in a season, so you might count that as a fairly large increase and worry about it. Don’t worry about the stuff, though. He has a funky combination of release point and shape on his fastball, and a large arsenal of legit offerings — he threw six different pitches more than 100 times last year. And all of them were decent!
Justin Steele is a lefty that throws his four-seamer and slider a combined 90 percent of the time, so you’d expect him to struggle against righties. They do hit him harder than lefties, but a .244/.302/.368 line from them isn’t all that worrisome by itself. What saves him probaby is that his fastball is a cut-ride fastball that bores in on righties. He’s almost a cutter/slider/curve guy. Still, that slider is sideways and the arsenal is small and the strikeout rates only average — there’s something about this grouping of skills that doesn’t seem to support the career 3.24 ERA.
Justin Steele is a lefty that throws his four-seamer and slider a combined 90 percent of the time, so you’d expect him to struggle against righties. They do hit him harder than lefties, but a .244/.302/.368 line from them isn’t all that worrisome by itself. What saves him probaby is that his fastball is a cut-ride fastball that bores in on righties. He’s almost a cutter/slider/curve guy. Still, that slider is sideways and the arsenal is small and the strikeout rates only average — there’s something about this grouping of skills that doesn’t seem to support the career 3.24 ERA.
Justin Steele is a lefty that throws his four-seamer and slider a combined 90 percent of the time, so you’d expect him to struggle against righties. They do hit him harder than lefties, but a .244/.302/.368 line from them isn’t all that worrisome by itself. What saves him probaby is that his fastball is a cut-ride fastball that bores in on righties. He’s almost a cutter/slider/curve guy. Still, that slider is sideways and the arsenal is small and the strikeout rates only average — there’s something about this grouping of skills that doesn’t seem to support the career 3.24 ERA.
We loved Shota Imanaga in these rankings last year, he came out and shoved with 173.1 innings of a 2.91 ERA, he comes back, and he’s in the back end of the top 40? What gives? Well, for one, the home run rate that we thought might be a problem came with him. And though he had a decent strikeout rate, it didn’t support that kind of ERA. His fastball is good (if slow), his splitter is good, and there are questions about the rest of his arsenal. He’ll probably allow more hits next year, and those guys will be on base for the homers. We still love him though.
We loved Shota Imanaga in these rankings last year, he came out and shoved with 173.1 innings of a 2.91 ERA, he comes back, and he’s in the back end of the top 40? What gives? Well, for one, the home run rate that we thought might be a problem came with him. And though he had a decent strikeout rate, it didn’t support that kind of ERA. His fastball is good (if slow), his splitter is good, and there are questions about the rest of his arsenal. He’ll probably allow more hits next year, and those guys will be on base for the homers. We still love him though.
We loved Shota Imanaga in these rankings last year, he came out and shoved with 173.1 innings of a 2.91 ERA, he comes back, and he’s in the back end of the top 40? What gives? Well, for one, the home run rate that we thought might be a problem came with him. And though he had a decent strikeout rate, it didn’t support that kind of ERA. His fastball is good (if slow), his splitter is good, and there are questions about the rest of his arsenal. He’ll probably allow more hits next year, and those guys will be on base for the homers. We still love him though.
The 97 mph fastball with decent ride, paired with the 89 mph bullet slider, will mean that Jared Jones will get strikeouts, perhaps even more than he’s projected for here. But Jones was predictable at times last season — on one episode of Rates & Barrels, Trevor May and I went through his tendencies and outlined a plan of attack that Cody Bellinger exactly replicated that same night for a home run on a two-strike count. The curve and change aren’t quite as good as the slider, but he’ll need them to take this a step further.
The 97 mph fastball with decent ride, paired with the 89 mph bullet slider, will mean that Jared Jones will get strikeouts, perhaps even more than he’s projected for here. But Jones was predictable at times last season — on one episode of Rates & Barrels, Trevor May and I went through his tendencies and outlined a plan of attack that Cody Bellinger exactly replicated that same night for a home run on a two-strike count. The curve and change aren’t quite as good as the slider, but he’ll need them to take this a step further.
The 97 mph fastball with decent ride, paired with the 89 mph bullet slider, will mean that Jared Jones will get strikeouts, perhaps even more than he’s projected for here. But Jones was predictable at times last season — on one episode of Rates & Barrels, Trevor May and I went through his tendencies and outlined a plan of attack that Cody Bellinger exactly replicated that same night for a home run on a two-strike count. The curve and change aren’t quite as good as the slider, but he’ll need them to take this a step further.
The projections are a little soft, the stuff is starting to decline, and at times last year, Zac Gallen saw his arsenal narrow. But 2023 was a long year for Gallen, what with all that postseason. Over the course of 2024, the Diamondback righty gained back his lost velocity and seemed to find his changeup eventually. He’s a little more ‘large arsenal with command’ at his best than someone that will dominate with stuff, but he’s also one of the best of that archetype. Dude’s a pitcher and has good feel. He’ll probably beat these projections.
The projections are a little soft, the stuff is starting to decline, and at times last year, Zac Gallen saw his arsenal narrow. But 2023 was a long year for Gallen, what with all that postseason. Over the course of 2024, the Diamondback righty gained back his lost velocity and seemed to find his changeup eventually. He’s a little more ‘large arsenal with command’ at his best than someone that will dominate with stuff, but he’s also one of the best of that archetype. Dude’s a pitcher and has good feel. He’ll probably beat these projections.
The projections are a little soft, the stuff is starting to decline, and at times last year, Zac Gallen saw his arsenal narrow. But 2023 was a long year for Gallen, what with all that postseason. Over the course of 2024, the Diamondback righty gained back his lost velocity and seemed to find his changeup eventually. He’s a little more ‘large arsenal with command’ at his best than someone that will dominate with stuff, but he’s also one of the best of that archetype. Dude’s a pitcher and has good feel. He’ll probably beat these projections.
Oh to be Ryan Pepiot. Afloat upon a four-seamer with great ride, a killer changeup, and a three-breaking ball mix that befuddled hitters, the Rays righty broke out last season. Despite some questions about his command (and iffy fastball locations last year), he has those two hard breaking balls that he can put in the zone for strikes and has seemingly moved past that flaw. There’s a little risk that his stuff degrades without the help of a park that seemingly inflates movement, but all the seeds of a complete arsenal have been sown and he’s ready to harvest.
Oh to be Ryan Pepiot. Afloat upon a four-seamer with great ride, a killer changeup, and a three-breaking ball mix that befuddled hitters, the Rays righty broke out last season. Despite some questions about his command (and iffy fastball locations last year), he has those two hard breaking balls that he can put in the zone for strikes and has seemingly moved past that flaw. There’s a little risk that his stuff degrades without the help of a park that seemingly inflates movement, but all the seeds of a complete arsenal have been sown and he’s ready to harvest.
Oh to be Ryan Pepiot. Afloat upon a four-seamer with great ride, a killer changeup, and a three-breaking ball mix that befuddled hitters, the Rays righty broke out last season. Despite some questions about his command (and iffy fastball locations last year), he has those two hard breaking balls that he can put in the zone for strikes and has seemingly moved past that flaw. There’s a little risk that his stuff degrades without the help of a park that seemingly inflates movement, but all the seeds of a complete arsenal have been sown and he’s ready to harvest.
As the fastball velocity declines, Sonny Gray becomes more dependent on his elite pitch. He threw that sweeper 500 times last sason and batters still only ‘hit’ .142 off the thing, but that was still almost fifty points higher than they hit off the sweeper in 2023. Everything is relative, just as everything bends in Gray’s arsenal. So the righty can play with that on a continuum, making batters think they got one breaking ball when they instead got another. But that game works better the more the hitters have to honor the fastball. At 92.4 mph last year, there’s not a ton more give in the velo department.
As the fastball velocity declines, Sonny Gray becomes more dependent on his elite pitch. He threw that sweeper 500 times last sason and batters still only ‘hit’ .142 off the thing, but that was still almost fifty points higher than they hit off the sweeper in 2023. Everything is relative, just as everything bends in Gray’s arsenal. So the righty can play with that on a continuum, making batters think they got one breaking ball when they instead got another. But that game works better the more the hitters have to honor the fastball. At 92.4 mph last year, there’s not a ton more give in the velo department.
As the fastball velocity declines, Sonny Gray becomes more dependent on his elite pitch. He threw that sweeper 500 times last sason and batters still only ‘hit’ .142 off the thing, but that was still almost fifty points higher than they hit off the sweeper in 2023. Everything is relative, just as everything bends in Gray’s arsenal. So the righty can play with that on a continuum, making batters think they got one breaking ball when they instead got another. But that game works better the more the hitters have to honor the fastball. At 92.4 mph last year, there’s not a ton more give in the velo department.
An ERA over four seems like a pessimistic projection for Lopez after he threw over 135 innings last year with an ERA under two, but that’s what happens when you drive your system with Stuff+. None of his pitches rated as above-average by Stuff+, his locations wobble between average and below, and he’s still small sample enough as a starter that these kinds of models are relevant. There are more optimistic projections — ZiPs says López can throw to a 3.20 ERA with a 26 percent strikeout rate — so feel fre to nudge him up further than I already have here if you’re a believer.
An ERA over four seems like a pessimistic projection for Lopez after he threw over 135 innings last year with an ERA under two, but that’s what happens when you drive your system with Stuff+. None of his pitches rated as above-average by Stuff+, his locations wobble between average and below, and he’s still small sample enough as a starter that these kinds of models are relevant. There are more optimistic projections — ZiPs says López can throw to a 3.20 ERA with a 26 percent strikeout rate — so feel fre to nudge him up further than I already have here if you’re a believer.
An ERA over four seems like a pessimistic projection for Lopez after he threw over 135 innings last year with an ERA under two, but that’s what happens when you drive your system with Stuff+. None of his pitches rated as above-average by Stuff+, his locations wobble between average and below, and he’s still small sample enough as a starter that these kinds of models are relevant. There are more optimistic projections — ZiPs says López can throw to a 3.20 ERA with a 26 percent strikeout rate — so feel fre to nudge him up further than I already have here if you’re a believer.
Rays’ President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander said this offseason that Shane McClanahan, upon returning from Tommy John surgery after missing all of last year, would throw “150-ish” innings this year. That’s pretty hopeful for a guy that has only crosssed that threshold once. Plus, there’s the risk the team wants to ‘save’ some innings for the postseason if they’re headed that way. The safer bet is for somewhere around 130 innings. Of really good quality, probably. Would’ve been nice to see him in a game just to know where the stuff is, but spring will tell us something.
Rays’ President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander said this offseason that Shane McClanahan, upon returning from Tommy John surgery after missing all of last year, would throw “150-ish” innings this year. That’s pretty hopeful for a guy that has only crosssed that threshold once. Plus, there’s the risk the team wants to ‘save’ some innings for the postseason if they’re headed that way. The safer bet is for somewhere around 130 innings. Of really good quality, probably. Would’ve been nice to see him in a game just to know where the stuff is, but spring will tell us something.
Rays’ President of Baseball Operations Erik Neander said this offseason that Shane McClanahan, upon returning from Tommy John surgery after missing all of last year, would throw “150-ish” innings this year. That’s pretty hopeful for a guy that has only crosssed that threshold once. Plus, there’s the risk the team wants to ‘save’ some innings for the postseason if they’re headed that way. The safer bet is for somewhere around 130 innings. Of really good quality, probably. Would’ve been nice to see him in a game just to know where the stuff is, but spring will tell us something.
He pitched some in the postseason, so it might be easy to forget that Kodai Senga missed all but five innings of the regular season in 2024. Was he even healthy when he came back? It was 94-ish on the fastball in the playoffs, but in short bursts and with poor results. You can put an up arrow on the back of this Ghost Fork slinger if he’s healthy in the spring, but the health rating here will still be barely passing at best. If you were conservative with your first couple of starters though, Senga represents good upside with that arsenal, in that park, with that offense behind him.
He pitched some in the postseason, so it might be easy to forget that Kodai Senga missed all but five innings of the regular season in 2024. Was he even healthy when he came back? It was 94-ish on the fastball in the playoffs, but in short bursts and with poor results. You can put an up arrow on the back of this Ghost Fork slinger if he’s healthy in the spring, but the health rating here will still be barely passing at best. If you were conservative with your first couple of starters though, Senga represents good upside with that arsenal, in that park, with that offense behind him.
He pitched some in the postseason, so it might be easy to forget that Kodai Senga missed all but five innings of the regular season in 2024. Was he even healthy when he came back? It was 94-ish on the fastball in the playoffs, but in short bursts and with poor results. You can put an up arrow on the back of this Ghost Fork slinger if he’s healthy in the spring, but the health rating here will still be barely passing at best. If you were conservative with your first couple of starters though, Senga represents good upside with that arsenal, in that park, with that offense behind him.
Clarke Schmidt is putting the pieces together. After giving up a whopping .303/.375/.500 batting line to lefties in 2023, the righty changed up his mix against southpaws in 2024. More cutters and fewer sweepers was obvious given those pitches’ platoon splits, but he also turfed the change (it’s not great) and threw more sinkers (high and away instead of low and away). So now he’s a sinker/sweeper guy against righties, and a cutter/curve guy against lefties, but he’s also peppering in the other pitches to avoid being predictable. Now the main question is innings.
Clarke Schmidt is putting the pieces together. After giving up a whopping .303/.375/.500 batting line to lefties in 2023, the righty changed up his mix against southpaws in 2024. More cutters and fewer sweepers was obvious given those pitches’ platoon splits, but he also turfed the change (it’s not great) and threw more sinkers (high and away instead of low and away). So now he’s a sinker/sweeper guy against righties, and a cutter/curve guy against lefties, but he’s also peppering in the other pitches to avoid being predictable. Now the main question is innings.
Clarke Schmidt is putting the pieces together. After giving up a whopping .303/.375/.500 batting line to lefties in 2023, the righty changed up his mix against southpaws in 2024. More cutters and fewer sweepers was obvious given those pitches’ platoon splits, but he also turfed the change (it’s not great) and threw more sinkers (high and away instead of low and away). So now he’s a sinker/sweeper guy against righties, and a cutter/curve guy against lefties, but he’s also peppering in the other pitches to avoid being predictable. Now the main question is innings.
The Astros helped Yusei Kikuchi optimize his pitch mix by having him dial down the curveball usage and throw more of his hard bullet sliders low and away to righties. That worked because his slider is better than his curve, but also because that tight shape works better to that location. Can the Angels just profit off of those alterations, or will the league catch up and adjust to this new approach? No matter what, the lefty has been good for strikeouts, and has been around a top-50 starter for two years now, so this ranking reflects the risk that he is who he’s been. There’s a chance, though, that the changes stick, and he has his best season.
The Astros helped Yusei Kikuchi optimize his pitch mix by having him dial down the curveball usage and throw more of his hard bullet sliders low and away to righties. That worked because his slider is better than his curve, but also because that tight shape works better to that location. Can the Angels just profit off of those alterations, or will the league catch up and adjust to this new approach? No matter what, the lefty has been good for strikeouts, and has been around a top-50 starter for two years now, so this ranking reflects the risk that he is who he’s been. There’s a chance, though, that the changes stick, and he has his best season.
The Astros helped Yusei Kikuchi optimize his pitch mix by having him dial down the curveball usage and throw more of his hard bullet sliders low and away to righties. That worked because his slider is better than his curve, but also because that tight shape works better to that location. Can the Angels just profit off of those alterations, or will the league catch up and adjust to this new approach? No matter what, the lefty has been good for strikeouts, and has been around a top-50 starter for two years now, so this ranking reflects the risk that he is who he’s been. There’s a chance, though, that the changes stick, and he has his best season.
He’s built up the bulk to go 180 innings, and he’s got a role in that Diamondbacks’ rotation, so Brandon Pfaadt has the upside to put together a special season. But it’s unclear what trick is left up his sleeve. Going to the sinker more against righties was the adjustment that fueled the postseason run in 2023, but the righty still struggles against lefties. His changeup isn’t that great, his sweeper is neutralized against southpaws, and even though he mixed in sinkers with his fourseamers, he just survives when a lefty steps up (.492 slugging liftime vs LHB). The nascent splitter might work, maybe.
He’s built up the bulk to go 180 innings, and he’s got a role in that Diamondbacks’ rotation, so Brandon Pfaadt has the upside to put together a special season. But it’s unclear what trick is left up his sleeve. Going to the sinker more against righties was the adjustment that fueled the postseason run in 2023, but the righty still struggles against lefties. His changeup isn’t that great, his sweeper is neutralized against southpaws, and even though he mixed in sinkers with his fourseamers, he just survives when a lefty steps up (.492 slugging liftime vs LHB). The nascent splitter might work, maybe.
He’s built up the bulk to go 180 innings, and he’s got a role in that Diamondbacks’ rotation, so Brandon Pfaadt has the upside to put together a special season. But it’s unclear what trick is left up his sleeve. Going to the sinker more against righties was the adjustment that fueled the postseason run in 2023, but the righty still struggles against lefties. His changeup isn’t that great, his sweeper is neutralized against southpaws, and even though he mixed in sinkers with his fourseamers, he just survives when a lefty steps up (.492 slugging liftime vs LHB). The nascent splitter might work, maybe.
Top button open, no undershirt, sweat flying, and perhaps some expletives — the Carlos Rodón Experience is a wild one, literally and figuratively. Heavy fastball usage sometimes gets him into trouble as hitters anticipate what he’s trying to do and can touch him for homers, but he’s upping the changeup use, and showed at times in the playoffs that he can manage the intensity and dial in the command a little better. But for the most part, this is who he is — high threes ERA with tons of strikeouts, occasional bouts of homeritis, and the odd lost season due to injury.
Top button open, no undershirt, sweat flying, and perhaps some expletives — the Carlos Rodón Experience is a wild one, literally and figuratively. Heavy fastball usage sometimes gets him into trouble as hitters anticipate what he’s trying to do and can touch him for homers, but he’s upping the changeup use, and showed at times in the playoffs that he can manage the intensity and dial in the command a little better. But for the most part, this is who he is — high threes ERA with tons of strikeouts, occasional bouts of homeritis, and the odd lost season due to injury.
Top button open, no undershirt, sweat flying, and perhaps some expletives — the Carlos Rodón Experience is a wild one, literally and figuratively. Heavy fastball usage sometimes gets him into trouble as hitters anticipate what he’s trying to do and can touch him for homers, but he’s upping the changeup use, and showed at times in the playoffs that he can manage the intensity and dial in the command a little better. But for the most part, this is who he is — high threes ERA with tons of strikeouts, occasional bouts of homeritis, and the odd lost season due to injury.
Perhaps the tighest pants in the big leagues showed last season that his stuff was back on the fastball, sitting over 94 on the fourseamer for the first time since 2021. The command wasn’t all the way back, though, as evidenced by his worst walk rate since 2020. Studies have shown that the command comes back after the stuff when it comes to Tommy John surgery, so overall his short stint last year was mostly good news. Robbie Ray is in a nice park, he brought the knuckle curve back… there are reasons for optimism here.
Perhaps the tighest pants in the big leagues showed last season that his stuff was back on the fastball, sitting over 94 on the fourseamer for the first time since 2021. The command wasn’t all the way back, though, as evidenced by his worst walk rate since 2020. Studies have shown that the command comes back after the stuff when it comes to Tommy John surgery, so overall his short stint last year was mostly good news. Robbie Ray is in a nice park, he brought the knuckle curve back… there are reasons for optimism here.
Perhaps the tighest pants in the big leagues showed last season that his stuff was back on the fastball, sitting over 94 on the fourseamer for the first time since 2021. The command wasn’t all the way back, though, as evidenced by his worst walk rate since 2020. Studies have shown that the command comes back after the stuff when it comes to Tommy John surgery, so overall his short stint last year was mostly good news. Robbie Ray is in a nice park, he brought the knuckle curve back… there are reasons for optimism here.
97 on the fastball with good ride. 88 mph on the slider with two-plane break. 92 mph on the changeup, with a whopping 15 inches of arm-side break. When he’s right, Luis Gil will make you sit up and fan yourself. When he’s wrong, he’s walking the lineup, hitting batters, and allowing home runs. The hope here is that, another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Gil improves the command just a little bit even, which could literally produce him some personal hardware. The risk is that the peripherals regress as they should, he doesn’t improve, and it’s a ton of strikeouts and a four-ish ERA.
97 on the fastball with good ride. 88 mph on the slider with two-plane break. 92 mph on the changeup, with a whopping 15 inches of arm-side break. When he’s right, Luis Gil will make you sit up and fan yourself. When he’s wrong, he’s walking the lineup, hitting batters, and allowing home runs. The hope here is that, another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Gil improves the command just a little bit even, which could literally produce him some personal hardware. The risk is that the peripherals regress as they should, he doesn’t improve, and it’s a ton of strikeouts and a four-ish ERA.
97 on the fastball with good ride. 88 mph on the slider with two-plane break. 92 mph on the changeup, with a whopping 15 inches of arm-side break. When he’s right, Luis Gil will make you sit up and fan yourself. When he’s wrong, he’s walking the lineup, hitting batters, and allowing home runs. The hope here is that, another year removed from Tommy John surgery, Gil improves the command just a little bit even, which could literally produce him some personal hardware. The risk is that the peripherals regress as they should, he doesn’t improve, and it’s a ton of strikeouts and a four-ish ERA.
He may not like talking about it, but the fact remains that Jack Flaherty allows a hundred points more of slugging on pitches under 94 mph as he does on pitches over 94 mph, and that he hasn’t averaged 94 mph on the pitch since 2021. By the playoffs, he was sitting under 93, which might have had something to do with his seven-plus ERA and also his relatively tough free agency. But at some point every pitcher has question marks, and he landed in a good park, and still has two really good breaking balls. You can’t forget what a guy does right.
He may not like talking about it, but the fact remains that Jack Flaherty allows a hundred points more of slugging on pitches under 94 mph as he does on pitches over 94 mph, and that he hasn’t averaged 94 mph on the pitch since 2021. By the playoffs, he was sitting under 93, which might have had something to do with his seven-plus ERA and also his relatively tough free agency. But at some point every pitcher has question marks, and he landed in a good park, and still has two really good breaking balls. You can’t forget what a guy does right.
He may not like talking about it, but the fact remains that Jack Flaherty allows a hundred points more of slugging on pitches under 94 mph as he does on pitches over 94 mph, and that he hasn’t averaged 94 mph on the pitch since 2021. By the playoffs, he was sitting under 93, which might have had something to do with his seven-plus ERA and also his relatively tough free agency. But at some point every pitcher has question marks, and he landed in a good park, and still has two really good breaking balls. You can’t forget what a guy does right.
One of the best changeups in the game, along with a 95 mph sinker, give Cristopher Sánchez a great floor. He probably won’t embarrass your team, and he’ll probably put up good bulk given his ‘A’ health grade and 181.2 innings in 2024. There’s still some upside beyond. He’s working on a new mystery pitch, and if it’s a cutter, it could give him a hard pitch that’s more useful against righties than his sinker is. If the mystery pitch is a four-seamer, same idea, but maybe with more whiffs. And whiffs are really the only thing missing for Sánchez.
One of the best changeups in the game, along with a 95 mph sinker, give Cristopher Sánchez a great floor. He probably won’t embarrass your team, and he’ll probably put up good bulk given his ‘A’ health grade and 181.2 innings in 2024. There’s still some upside beyond. He’s working on a new mystery pitch, and if it’s a cutter, it could give him a hard pitch that’s more useful against righties than his sinker is. If the mystery pitch is a four-seamer, same idea, but maybe with more whiffs. And whiffs are really the only thing missing for Sánchez.
One of the best changeups in the game, along with a 95 mph sinker, give Cristopher Sánchez a great floor. He probably won’t embarrass your team, and he’ll probably put up good bulk given his ‘A’ health grade and 181.2 innings in 2024. There’s still some upside beyond. He’s working on a new mystery pitch, and if it’s a cutter, it could give him a hard pitch that’s more useful against righties than his sinker is. If the mystery pitch is a four-seamer, same idea, but maybe with more whiffs. And whiffs are really the only thing missing for Sánchez.
At his best, Sandy Alcantara has a bonkers arsenal. A 98 mph super-sinker, a 90 mph slider, a 91 mph power changeup, and an 86 mph curveball he can feature every once in a while if he needs whiffs over weak contact. He has been what we hope Cristopher Sánchez could be: a power pitcher with command that thrives off of weak contact but also strikes guys out at a league average rate. But innings and health are more a question for the veteran in Miami, even if he shows that he’s got his stuff back this spring.
At his best, Sandy Alcantara has a bonkers arsenal. A 98 mph super-sinker, a 90 mph slider, a 91 mph power changeup, and an 86 mph curveball he can feature every once in a while if he needs whiffs over weak contact. He has been what we hope Cristopher Sánchez could be: a power pitcher with command that thrives off of weak contact but also strikes guys out at a league average rate. But innings and health are more a question for the veteran in Miami, even if he shows that he’s got his stuff back this spring.
At his best, Sandy Alcantara has a bonkers arsenal. A 98 mph super-sinker, a 90 mph slider, a 91 mph power changeup, and an 86 mph curveball he can feature every once in a while if he needs whiffs over weak contact. He has been what we hope Cristopher Sánchez could be: a power pitcher with command that thrives off of weak contact but also strikes guys out at a league average rate. But innings and health are more a question for the veteran in Miami, even if he shows that he’s got his stuff back this spring.
Without adding to his arsenal, Clay Holmes can probably be a successful starting pitcher based on his super-sinker and great two-breaking-ball arsenal. He’ll keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and double plays will help clean up some weaknesses against lefties and the occasional bout of poor command. But in the playoffs, the righy showed a four-seamer that had more ride than he’d ever had on the pitch before. Even a league-average fastball would raise the celing on this conversion by giving him more whiffs and fewer walks against righties.
Without adding to his arsenal, Clay Holmes can probably be a successful starting pitcher based on his super-sinker and great two-breaking-ball arsenal. He’ll keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and double plays will help clean up some weaknesses against lefties and the occasional bout of poor command. But in the playoffs, the righy showed a four-seamer that had more ride than he’d ever had on the pitch before. Even a league-average fastball would raise the celing on this conversion by giving him more whiffs and fewer walks against righties.
Without adding to his arsenal, Clay Holmes can probably be a successful starting pitcher based on his super-sinker and great two-breaking-ball arsenal. He’ll keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and double plays will help clean up some weaknesses against lefties and the occasional bout of poor command. But in the playoffs, the righy showed a four-seamer that had more ride than he’d ever had on the pitch before. Even a league-average fastball would raise the celing on this conversion by giving him more whiffs and fewer walks against righties.
It’s all hard for Taj Bradley. Literally, he throws a 96 mph fastball, a 91 mph splitter, and a 91 mph cutter a combined 90 percent of the time — batters don’t have to honor a larger velocity band. That makes them more aggressive. Figuratively, it seems like it’s been difficult for the young Ray because he goes through stretches where the command leaves him and he ends up being predictable (without a dominant breaking ball). When he’s struggling to strike out righties and the ball’s leaving the park it’s easy to forget his top of the line stuff and borderline elite strikeout rates.
It’s all hard for Taj Bradley. Literally, he throws a 96 mph fastball, a 91 mph splitter, and a 91 mph cutter a combined 90 percent of the time — batters don’t have to honor a larger velocity band. That makes them more aggressive. Figuratively, it seems like it’s been difficult for the young Ray because he goes through stretches where the command leaves him and he ends up being predictable (without a dominant breaking ball). When he’s struggling to strike out righties and the ball’s leaving the park it’s easy to forget his top of the line stuff and borderline elite strikeout rates.
It’s all hard for Taj Bradley. Literally, he throws a 96 mph fastball, a 91 mph splitter, and a 91 mph cutter a combined 90 percent of the time — batters don’t have to honor a larger velocity band. That makes them more aggressive. Figuratively, it seems like it’s been difficult for the young Ray because he goes through stretches where the command leaves him and he ends up being predictable (without a dominant breaking ball). When he’s struggling to strike out righties and the ball’s leaving the park it’s easy to forget his top of the line stuff and borderline elite strikeout rates.
The Stuff+ model may undervalue Bailey Ober. He’s now had good strikeout rates in over 300 innings over the last two seasons, he has a unique arm slot, and his pitches have all overperformed their numbers in that model. Then again, he sits under 92 mph and has given up 49 homers over the last two seasons combined. He is who he is at this point, and fancy models don’t really move the needle. A high fours ERA, on the back of a good strikeout minus walk rate and a home run problem — that’s the most likely outcome for the soft-tossing Ober.
The Stuff+ model may undervalue Bailey Ober. He’s now had good strikeout rates in over 300 innings over the last two seasons, he has a unique arm slot, and his pitches have all overperformed their numbers in that model. Then again, he sits under 92 mph and has given up 49 homers over the last two seasons combined. He is who he is at this point, and fancy models don’t really move the needle. A high fours ERA, on the back of a good strikeout minus walk rate and a home run problem — that’s the most likely outcome for the soft-tossing Ober.
The Stuff+ model may undervalue Bailey Ober. He’s now had good strikeout rates in over 300 innings over the last two seasons, he has a unique arm slot, and his pitches have all overperformed their numbers in that model. Then again, he sits under 92 mph and has given up 49 homers over the last two seasons combined. He is who he is at this point, and fancy models don’t really move the needle. A high fours ERA, on the back of a good strikeout minus walk rate and a home run problem — that’s the most likely outcome for the soft-tossing Ober.
Every time we re-ran the Stuff+ model this offseason as we were working on it, Gavin Williams’ Stuff+ oscillated from well above average to just below. That makes some sense because despite the nice 97 mph gas behind his four-seamer, the shape is confounding. A two-plane pitch, it neither has the ride of a great four-seamer or the fade of a great two-seamer. The good news is that he still has that gas and three decent breaking balls, and decent command. The pieces are there for a breakout, and he has enough bulk in the bank to get close to 150 innings in 2025. Here, he sits just ahead a tier of ‘fine’ veterans — his upside seperates him.
Every time we re-ran the Stuff+ model this offseason as we were working on it, Gavin Williams’ Stuff+ oscillated from well above average to just below. That makes some sense because despite the nice 97 mph gas behind his four-seamer, the shape is confounding. A two-plane pitch, it neither has the ride of a great four-seamer or the fade of a great two-seamer. The good news is that he still has that gas and three decent breaking balls, and decent command. The pieces are there for a breakout, and he has enough bulk in the bank to get close to 150 innings in 2025. Here, he sits just ahead a tier of ‘fine’ veterans — his upside seperates him.
Every time we re-ran the Stuff+ model this offseason as we were working on it, Gavin Williams’ Stuff+ oscillated from well above average to just below. That makes some sense because despite the nice 97 mph gas behind his four-seamer, the shape is confounding. A two-plane pitch, it neither has the ride of a great four-seamer or the fade of a great two-seamer. The good news is that he still has that gas and three decent breaking balls, and decent command. The pieces are there for a breakout, and he has enough bulk in the bank to get close to 150 innings in 2025. Here, he sits just ahead a tier of ‘fine’ veterans — his upside seperates him.
From fantasy analyst Jason Collette: Six pitchers pitched at least 100 innings since 2021 and had an ERA under four in each season with a WHIP under 1.25 in each season. Framber Valdez, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler… and Nate Eovaldi. Sure, the velo isn’t 97 any more, and he always represents a significant health risk, but the Rangers righty has developed himself into a wide arsenal guy by pushing the splitter, cutter, and curve about as far as he can. Nobody will jump in the chat to congratulate you on picking a sleeper, but this is good oatmeal.
From fantasy analyst Jason Collette: Six pitchers pitched at least 100 innings since 2021 and had an ERA under four in each season with a WHIP under 1.25 in each season. Framber Valdez, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler… and Nate Eovaldi. Sure, the velo isn’t 97 any more, and he always represents a significant health risk, but the Rangers righty has developed himself into a wide arsenal guy by pushing the splitter, cutter, and curve about as far as he can. Nobody will jump in the chat to congratulate you on picking a sleeper, but this is good oatmeal.
From fantasy analyst Jason Collette: Six pitchers pitched at least 100 innings since 2021 and had an ERA under four in each season with a WHIP under 1.25 in each season. Framber Valdez, Corbin Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler… and Nate Eovaldi. Sure, the velo isn’t 97 any more, and he always represents a significant health risk, but the Rangers righty has developed himself into a wide arsenal guy by pushing the splitter, cutter, and curve about as far as he can. Nobody will jump in the chat to congratulate you on picking a sleeper, but this is good oatmeal.
Reese Olson throws five pitches regularly, and it turns out the poor command grades he received as a prospect might not have been entirely correct. Neither fastball is great — the four-seamer might be terrible (74 Stuff+, .421 slugging allowed lifetime) — but he has three average-to-good secondaries and mixes it up well. His home park means he’ll be usable at least half the time, and if he can push the slider even just a little bit, he could break out into the veteran wide mix with command crew. Those pitchers are often underrated, but can be volatile year to year.
Reese Olson throws five pitches regularly, and it turns out the poor command grades he received as a prospect might not have been entirely correct. Neither fastball is great — the four-seamer might be terrible (74 Stuff+, .421 slugging allowed lifetime) — but he has three average-to-good secondaries and mixes it up well. His home park means he’ll be usable at least half the time, and if he can push the slider even just a little bit, he could break out into the veteran wide mix with command crew. Those pitchers are often underrated, but can be volatile year to year.
Reese Olson throws five pitches regularly, and it turns out the poor command grades he received as a prospect might not have been entirely correct. Neither fastball is great — the four-seamer might be terrible (74 Stuff+, .421 slugging allowed lifetime) — but he has three average-to-good secondaries and mixes it up well. His home park means he’ll be usable at least half the time, and if he can push the slider even just a little bit, he could break out into the veteran wide mix with command crew. Those pitchers are often underrated, but can be volatile year to year.
He doesn’t have a home yet, and the Stuff+ revamp didn’t treat him well — mostly because, yes, his fastball has great ride, but it comes from an arm slot that makes that ride predictable to hitters, which leads the pitch to giving up home runs — but Nick Pivetta does have some things going for him. A good fastball by velo at least, an elite breaking pitch and two more that function around average, and demonstrated strikeout rates in the high twenties and low thirties are all on his ledger. What if he signs with a team that has a park that suppresses home runs? He could suddenly become even more interesting than this ranking suggests.
He doesn’t have a home yet, and the Stuff+ revamp didn’t treat him well — mostly because, yes, his fastball has great ride, but it comes from an arm slot that makes that ride predictable to hitters, which leads the pitch to giving up home runs — but Nick Pivetta does have some things going for him. A good fastball by velo at least, an elite breaking pitch and two more that function around average, and demonstrated strikeout rates in the high twenties and low thirties are all on his ledger. What if he signs with a team that has a park that suppresses home runs? He could suddenly become even more interesting than this ranking suggests.
He doesn’t have a home yet, and the Stuff+ revamp didn’t treat him well — mostly because, yes, his fastball has great ride, but it comes from an arm slot that makes that ride predictable to hitters, which leads the pitch to giving up home runs — but Nick Pivetta does have some things going for him. A good fastball by velo at least, an elite breaking pitch and two more that function around average, and demonstrated strikeout rates in the high twenties and low thirties are all on his ledger. What if he signs with a team that has a park that suppresses home runs? He could suddenly become even more interesting than this ranking suggests.
Injury has kept Nick Lodolo from putting the bulk into his promise, but the ingredients are still there. Two strong fastballs, an elite breaking pitch, and an average change give him a four-pitch mix with command. There’s no doubt he’s in the rotation, and the 123 innings he threw last year were nearly a seasonal career high for him. The health issues and the results on the field seem intertwined: if Lodolo throws more than 125 innings, the bet here is that he will have a mid-threes ERA and a good strikeout rate, too. That park will always make things difficult, but he’s got the stuff to combat it.
Injury has kept Nick Lodolo from putting the bulk into his promise, but the ingredients are still there. Two strong fastballs, an elite breaking pitch, and an average change give him a four-pitch mix with command. There’s no doubt he’s in the rotation, and the 123 innings he threw last year were nearly a seasonal career high for him. The health issues and the results on the field seem intertwined: if Lodolo throws more than 125 innings, the bet here is that he will have a mid-threes ERA and a good strikeout rate, too. That park will always make things difficult, but he’s got the stuff to combat it.
Injury has kept Nick Lodolo from putting the bulk into his promise, but the ingredients are still there. Two strong fastballs, an elite breaking pitch, and an average change give him a four-pitch mix with command. There’s no doubt he’s in the rotation, and the 123 innings he threw last year were nearly a seasonal career high for him. The health issues and the results on the field seem intertwined: if Lodolo throws more than 125 innings, the bet here is that he will have a mid-threes ERA and a good strikeout rate, too. That park will always make things difficult, but he’s got the stuff to combat it.
Possibly underrated by the old Stuff+ model, Spencer Arrigheti now shows as having an above-average fastball, an elite curveball, an above-average slider, and below-average but workable cutter and changeup combo. Weirdly for someone with such good breaking balls, Arrigheti gave up better slugging numbers against righties last season. Perhaps it has to do with his wobbly command. Then again, the thing with command is, it can go — but it can also come back. If his heat maps are more ravioli and less spaghetti in 2025, we could see a breakout based on reducing homers and walks and keeping that strikeout rate high. As is, though, he’s still valuable for those Ks.
Possibly underrated by the old Stuff+ model, Spencer Arrigheti now shows as having an above-average fastball, an elite curveball, an above-average slider, and below-average but workable cutter and changeup combo. Weirdly for someone with such good breaking balls, Arrigheti gave up better slugging numbers against righties last season. Perhaps it has to do with his wobbly command. Then again, the thing with command is, it can go — but it can also come back. If his heat maps are more ravioli and less spaghetti in 2025, we could see a breakout based on reducing homers and walks and keeping that strikeout rate high. As is, though, he’s still valuable for those Ks.
Possibly underrated by the old Stuff+ model, Spencer Arrigheti now shows as having an above-average fastball, an elite curveball, an above-average slider, and below-average but workable cutter and changeup combo. Weirdly for someone with such good breaking balls, Arrigheti gave up better slugging numbers against righties last season. Perhaps it has to do with his wobbly command. Then again, the thing with command is, it can go — but it can also come back. If his heat maps are more ravioli and less spaghetti in 2025, we could see a breakout based on reducing homers and walks and keeping that strikeout rate high. As is, though, he’s still valuable for those Ks.
The sinker and slider combo, especially because of Tanner Houck’s low slot, are devastating to righties. He’s kept them to a .228/.291/.306 line career, and since there are more righties and Houck has shown he can handle the bulk, he’ll be a starter. How good he’ll be depends on lefties, particuarly the splitter and his new location strategies with the sinker. Those combined to help Houck cut two hundred points of slugging out of the line against him from lefties year-over-year — but how much of that was one-year luck? At times, the splitter just looks like a slower sinker without enough of a velo gap to be effective. At others, it looks like exactly what he needs to re-up on a breakout.
The sinker and slider combo, especially because of Tanner Houck’s low slot, are devastating to righties. He’s kept them to a .228/.291/.306 line career, and since there are more righties and Houck has shown he can handle the bulk, he’ll be a starter. How good he’ll be depends on lefties, particuarly the splitter and his new location strategies with the sinker. Those combined to help Houck cut two hundred points of slugging out of the line against him from lefties year-over-year — but how much of that was one-year luck? At times, the splitter just looks like a slower sinker without enough of a velo gap to be effective. At others, it looks like exactly what he needs to re-up on a breakout.
The sinker and slider combo, especially because of Tanner Houck’s low slot, are devastating to righties. He’s kept them to a .228/.291/.306 line career, and since there are more righties and Houck has shown he can handle the bulk, he’ll be a starter. How good he’ll be depends on lefties, particuarly the splitter and his new location strategies with the sinker. Those combined to help Houck cut two hundred points of slugging out of the line against him from lefties year-over-year — but how much of that was one-year luck? At times, the splitter just looks like a slower sinker without enough of a velo gap to be effective. At others, it looks like exactly what he needs to re-up on a breakout.
Nearly 90 percent of the pitches Kevin Gausman throws are either fastballs or splitters. That seems particularly relevant as his fastball velo threatens to dip below league average, especially given the results of new research about the value of wide arsenals helping pitchers especially when it comes to third time through the order. So far, Gausman has avoided the high home run rates and poor third time through splits, but they remain open questions as the 34-year-old goes deeper into his career. He already showed a six-year low in strikeout rate, so the denoument is here. The question is only how steep the drop will be.
Nearly 90 percent of the pitches Kevin Gausman throws are either fastballs or splitters. That seems particularly relevant as his fastball velo threatens to dip below league average, especially given the results of new research about the value of wide arsenals helping pitchers especially when it comes to third time through the order. So far, Gausman has avoided the high home run rates and poor third time through splits, but they remain open questions as the 34-year-old goes deeper into his career. He already showed a six-year low in strikeout rate, so the denoument is here. The question is only how steep the drop will be.
Nearly 90 percent of the pitches Kevin Gausman throws are either fastballs or splitters. That seems particularly relevant as his fastball velo threatens to dip below league average, especially given the results of new research about the value of wide arsenals helping pitchers especially when it comes to third time through the order. So far, Gausman has avoided the high home run rates and poor third time through splits, but they remain open questions as the 34-year-old goes deeper into his career. He already showed a six-year low in strikeout rate, so the denoument is here. The question is only how steep the drop will be.
In some ways, it’s a shame about Shane. Baz doesn’t have the elite stuff that he showed in the Futures Game when he was blowing hundos with nasty breaking balls. After Tommy John surgery, it’s more 95s and 96s, with good but not elite sliders and curves. Like most Rays pitchers, also Baz benefited from the Trop, which has been shown to augment stuff and strikeouts. His home strikeout rate (25 percent) may not be there for him at Steinbrenner Field, and his away strikeout rate (19 percent) is not promising. Another year away from surgery may bring him closer to his old arsenal, but the risk here is loud and clear.
In some ways, it’s a shame about Shane. Baz doesn’t have the elite stuff that he showed in the Futures Game when he was blowing hundos with nasty breaking balls. After Tommy John surgery, it’s more 95s and 96s, with good but not elite sliders and curves. Like most Rays pitchers, also Baz benefited from the Trop, which has been shown to augment stuff and strikeouts. His home strikeout rate (25 percent) may not be there for him at Steinbrenner Field, and his away strikeout rate (19 percent) is not promising. Another year away from surgery may bring him closer to his old arsenal, but the risk here is loud and clear.
In some ways, it’s a shame about Shane. Baz doesn’t have the elite stuff that he showed in the Futures Game when he was blowing hundos with nasty breaking balls. After Tommy John surgery, it’s more 95s and 96s, with good but not elite sliders and curves. Like most Rays pitchers, also Baz benefited from the Trop, which has been shown to augment stuff and strikeouts. His home strikeout rate (25 percent) may not be there for him at Steinbrenner Field, and his away strikeout rate (19 percent) is not promising. Another year away from surgery may bring him closer to his old arsenal, but the risk here is loud and clear.
It isn’t fair to say that Seth Lugo succeeded last year just because he throws so many dang pitches. He does have elite spin rates (and feel) on the curve and slider, so there are dominant pitches in his repertoire. It’s also true, though, that he throws more pitch types than almost anyone in baseball (and if you ask Lugo, more than anyone). Still, he struck out only 22 percent of the batters he saw on the back of a 92 mph fastball — you have to wonder how likely he is to match last year. He might beat these projections again, but the league has also had more time to see all of his pitches. Making him one of the three highest-ranked pitchers with a projected ERA over four feels right.
It isn’t fair to say that Seth Lugo succeeded last year just because he throws so many dang pitches. He does have elite spin rates (and feel) on the curve and slider, so there are dominant pitches in his repertoire. It’s also true, though, that he throws more pitch types than almost anyone in baseball (and if you ask Lugo, more than anyone). Still, he struck out only 22 percent of the batters he saw on the back of a 92 mph fastball — you have to wonder how likely he is to match last year. He might beat these projections again, but the league has also had more time to see all of his pitches. Making him one of the three highest-ranked pitchers with a projected ERA over four feels right.
It isn’t fair to say that Seth Lugo succeeded last year just because he throws so many dang pitches. He does have elite spin rates (and feel) on the curve and slider, so there are dominant pitches in his repertoire. It’s also true, though, that he throws more pitch types than almost anyone in baseball (and if you ask Lugo, more than anyone). Still, he struck out only 22 percent of the batters he saw on the back of a 92 mph fastball — you have to wonder how likely he is to match last year. He might beat these projections again, but the league has also had more time to see all of his pitches. Making him one of the three highest-ranked pitchers with a projected ERA over four feels right.
Perhaps due to health struggles, Yu Darvish has had a wild career. In the space of three seasons in the middle of his career he had a year with an ERA near five and another with an ERA just over two. He missed time again last year, but by all accounts it wasn’t for injury. Maybe the time off will lead to a refreshed Darvish, who still has the upside to throw to a low-threes ERA with a slightly above-average strikeout rate. Or maybe he’s still dealing with those issues and will have to leave the team again this coming season. Though the innings remain a unique challenge to project, it’s obvious that he’s a savant with his pitches and remains a joy to watch.
Perhaps due to health struggles, Yu Darvish has had a wild career. In the space of three seasons in the middle of his career he had a year with an ERA near five and another with an ERA just over two. He missed time again last year, but by all accounts it wasn’t for injury. Maybe the time off will lead to a refreshed Darvish, who still has the upside to throw to a low-threes ERA with a slightly above-average strikeout rate. Or maybe he’s still dealing with those issues and will have to leave the team again this coming season. Though the innings remain a unique challenge to project, it’s obvious that he’s a savant with his pitches and remains a joy to watch.
Perhaps due to health struggles, Yu Darvish has had a wild career. In the space of three seasons in the middle of his career he had a year with an ERA near five and another with an ERA just over two. He missed time again last year, but by all accounts it wasn’t for injury. Maybe the time off will lead to a refreshed Darvish, who still has the upside to throw to a low-threes ERA with a slightly above-average strikeout rate. Or maybe he’s still dealing with those issues and will have to leave the team again this coming season. Though the innings remain a unique challenge to project, it’s obvious that he’s a savant with his pitches and remains a joy to watch.
Dropping down to a Chris Sale arm slot helped Sean Manaea improve the stuff on his fastballs and led to a 19-start stretch with a 3.10 ERA and good peripherals. That’s something most of the projection systems might be missing, but it’s also possible to over-rate that type of change and just assign post-adjustment numbers as ‘real’ going forward. For one, that kind of radical arm slot change could put pressure on his mechanics and lead to adverse health outcomes. And for two, the slot change did not improve his mediocre changeup. Split the difference and pay for a low fours ERA and maybe you’ll profit.
Dropping down to a Chris Sale arm slot helped Sean Manaea improve the stuff on his fastballs and led to a 19-start stretch with a 3.10 ERA and good peripherals. That’s something most of the projection systems might be missing, but it’s also possible to over-rate that type of change and just assign post-adjustment numbers as ‘real’ going forward. For one, that kind of radical arm slot change could put pressure on his mechanics and lead to adverse health outcomes. And for two, the slot change did not improve his mediocre changeup. Split the difference and pay for a low fours ERA and maybe you’ll profit.
Dropping down to a Chris Sale arm slot helped Sean Manaea improve the stuff on his fastballs and led to a 19-start stretch with a 3.10 ERA and good peripherals. That’s something most of the projection systems might be missing, but it’s also possible to over-rate that type of change and just assign post-adjustment numbers as ‘real’ going forward. For one, that kind of radical arm slot change could put pressure on his mechanics and lead to adverse health outcomes. And for two, the slot change did not improve his mediocre changeup. Split the difference and pay for a low fours ERA and maybe you’ll profit.
The changes Zach Eflin made in Baltimore were subtle but important. He didn’t throw a lot more four-seamers, but when he did throw them, the went up and in to help set up his cutter, slider, and curve better. He really turfed his sinker usage against lefties and replaced it with a lot of changeups and curves. In general, the mix got wider and he was less predictable, and that led to more strikeouts and less hard contact. With his slightly below-average fastballs, he doesn’t have the upside of some of the younger pitchers ranked around him, but at 30 he’s not quite old yet either. Another good oatmeal type pick.
The changes Zach Eflin made in Baltimore were subtle but important. He didn’t throw a lot more four-seamers, but when he did throw them, the went up and in to help set up his cutter, slider, and curve better. He really turfed his sinker usage against lefties and replaced it with a lot of changeups and curves. In general, the mix got wider and he was less predictable, and that led to more strikeouts and less hard contact. With his slightly below-average fastballs, he doesn’t have the upside of some of the younger pitchers ranked around him, but at 30 he’s not quite old yet either. Another good oatmeal type pick.
The changes Zach Eflin made in Baltimore were subtle but important. He didn’t throw a lot more four-seamers, but when he did throw them, the went up and in to help set up his cutter, slider, and curve better. He really turfed his sinker usage against lefties and replaced it with a lot of changeups and curves. In general, the mix got wider and he was less predictable, and that led to more strikeouts and less hard contact. With his slightly below-average fastballs, he doesn’t have the upside of some of the younger pitchers ranked around him, but at 30 he’s not quite old yet either. Another good oatmeal type pick.
The Mets helped Luis Severino. By adding a sinker, refining the cutter, and working on his tipping issues, they made him less predictable. Severino cut his home run rate in half and took two and a half runs off his ERA. Some of that may just have been natural regression to his career norms, but there’s no doubt that he’s showing a wider arsenal now. He’s still sitting 96+ with a strong slider at his core, and though Sacramento won’t play like Oakland, it was neutral for the Pacific Coast League, and fears about his home run rate there may be overblown. At 30, with these strikeout rates, Sevvy’s not a sleeper. But he may drop too far for a competent pitcher.
The Mets helped Luis Severino. By adding a sinker, refining the cutter, and working on his tipping issues, they made him less predictable. Severino cut his home run rate in half and took two and a half runs off his ERA. Some of that may just have been natural regression to his career norms, but there’s no doubt that he’s showing a wider arsenal now. He’s still sitting 96+ with a strong slider at his core, and though Sacramento won’t play like Oakland, it was neutral for the Pacific Coast League, and fears about his home run rate there may be overblown. At 30, with these strikeout rates, Sevvy’s not a sleeper. But he may drop too far for a competent pitcher.
The Mets helped Luis Severino. By adding a sinker, refining the cutter, and working on his tipping issues, they made him less predictable. Severino cut his home run rate in half and took two and a half runs off his ERA. Some of that may just have been natural regression to his career norms, but there’s no doubt that he’s showing a wider arsenal now. He’s still sitting 96+ with a strong slider at his core, and though Sacramento won’t play like Oakland, it was neutral for the Pacific Coast League, and fears about his home run rate there may be overblown. At 30, with these strikeout rates, Sevvy’s not a sleeper. But he may drop too far for a competent pitcher.
What a tale of two halves for Ranger Suárez. In the first half, he kept the ball on the ground, in the park and limited walks, made the most out of a 25 percent strikeout rate, and put up a 2.76 ERA that looked out of place mid-table in the rankings. But in the second half, the faults that drove those ranks came out: Suárez couldn’t stay healthy, gave up more line drives and fly balls and homers, walked more guys and struck out fewer guys on a sinker that was barely cracking 90 in some starts. The ERA ballooned to 5.65 and he couldn’t stay healthy. At this point he’s a wide-arsenal guy with good command and middling stuff — think high 3s ERA and below-average strikeouts.
What a tale of two halves for Ranger Suárez. In the first half, he kept the ball on the ground, in the park and limited walks, made the most out of a 25 percent strikeout rate, and put up a 2.76 ERA that looked out of place mid-table in the rankings. But in the second half, the faults that drove those ranks came out: Suárez couldn’t stay healthy, gave up more line drives and fly balls and homers, walked more guys and struck out fewer guys on a sinker that was barely cracking 90 in some starts. The ERA ballooned to 5.65 and he couldn’t stay healthy. At this point he’s a wide-arsenal guy with good command and middling stuff — think high 3s ERA and below-average strikeouts.
What a tale of two halves for Ranger Suárez. In the first half, he kept the ball on the ground, in the park and limited walks, made the most out of a 25 percent strikeout rate, and put up a 2.76 ERA that looked out of place mid-table in the rankings. But in the second half, the faults that drove those ranks came out: Suárez couldn’t stay healthy, gave up more line drives and fly balls and homers, walked more guys and struck out fewer guys on a sinker that was barely cracking 90 in some starts. The ERA ballooned to 5.65 and he couldn’t stay healthy. At this point he’s a wide-arsenal guy with good command and middling stuff — think high 3s ERA and below-average strikeouts.
It’s not always about velocity. Nestor Cortes only sat 92 on his four-seamer last season, and he was nearly a top-50 pitcher when it was all said and done. The fastball, cutter, slider, and changeup are all just around average or better by Stuff+, and he’s always had good command. Despite some homeritis issues, he kept the ball in a park that was friendly to homers. Would it be nice to know that he’ll sit 92 this coming season, and not regress to the near-90 mph days of yore? Would it be nice to be absolutely sure that he’s past the elbow soreness that he was dealing with late last year? Of course. But down here, the chance to get a sub-four ERA with good wins and a decent strikeout rate is worth that risk.
It’s not always about velocity. Nestor Cortes only sat 92 on his four-seamer last season, and he was nearly a top-50 pitcher when it was all said and done. The fastball, cutter, slider, and changeup are all just around average or better by Stuff+, and he’s always had good command. Despite some homeritis issues, he kept the ball in a park that was friendly to homers. Would it be nice to know that he’ll sit 92 this coming season, and not regress to the near-90 mph days of yore? Would it be nice to be absolutely sure that he’s past the elbow soreness that he was dealing with late last year? Of course. But down here, the chance to get a sub-four ERA with good wins and a decent strikeout rate is worth that risk.
It’s not always about velocity. Nestor Cortes only sat 92 on his four-seamer last season, and he was nearly a top-50 pitcher when it was all said and done. The fastball, cutter, slider, and changeup are all just around average or better by Stuff+, and he’s always had good command. Despite some homeritis issues, he kept the ball in a park that was friendly to homers. Would it be nice to know that he’ll sit 92 this coming season, and not regress to the near-90 mph days of yore? Would it be nice to be absolutely sure that he’s past the elbow soreness that he was dealing with late last year? Of course. But down here, the chance to get a sub-four ERA with good wins and a decent strikeout rate is worth that risk.
If you only use release point and movement to try to find a comp for the Nationals’ lefty, you get surprisingly close to Clayton Kershaw. Now, MacKenzie Gore doesn’t have the command of a future Hall of Famer, but he does also sit 96 with a great four-seamer and two good breaking pitches, so it’s not at all a stretch to see him breaking out fully in his age-25 season. He’s improved his peripherals with every year, and at some point the infield defense behind him is going to have to get better (or changes will be made). Give Gore even an average defense, and maybe have him throw the fastball a little higher in the zone, and you could get a 28 percent strikeout rate and an ERA in the mid threes.
If you only use release point and movement to try to find a comp for the Nationals’ lefty, you get surprisingly close to Clayton Kershaw. Now, MacKenzie Gore doesn’t have the command of a future Hall of Famer, but he does also sit 96 with a great four-seamer and two good breaking pitches, so it’s not at all a stretch to see him breaking out fully in his age-25 season. He’s improved his peripherals with every year, and at some point the infield defense behind him is going to have to get better (or changes will be made). Give Gore even an average defense, and maybe have him throw the fastball a little higher in the zone, and you could get a 28 percent strikeout rate and an ERA in the mid threes.
If you only use release point and movement to try to find a comp for the Nationals’ lefty, you get surprisingly close to Clayton Kershaw. Now, MacKenzie Gore doesn’t have the command of a future Hall of Famer, but he does also sit 96 with a great four-seamer and two good breaking pitches, so it’s not at all a stretch to see him breaking out fully in his age-25 season. He’s improved his peripherals with every year, and at some point the infield defense behind him is going to have to get better (or changes will be made). Give Gore even an average defense, and maybe have him throw the fastball a little higher in the zone, and you could get a 28 percent strikeout rate and an ERA in the mid threes.
A collection of average pitches (though the sweeper rates very highly) backed by just better than average velocity and just below-average command has predictabily put Mitch Keller right in average territory most years. Over the last three years, he’s averaged top-90 value among starters, he has a job, and he can be really useful at home (career 4.01 ERA at home, 5.20 on the road), so in most leagues, he is useful with a little bit of upside. But he can also be tough to roster. Even just using him at home last year would have meant eating some not-so-great starts, like the six runs he gave up against the Cardinals in July. Still, by picking your spots, you can augment his value to your team.
A collection of average pitches (though the sweeper rates very highly) backed by just better than average velocity and just below-average command has predictabily put Mitch Keller right in average territory most years. Over the last three years, he’s averaged top-90 value among starters, he has a job, and he can be really useful at home (career 4.01 ERA at home, 5.20 on the road), so in most leagues, he is useful with a little bit of upside. But he can also be tough to roster. Even just using him at home last year would have meant eating some not-so-great starts, like the six runs he gave up against the Cardinals in July. Still, by picking your spots, you can augment his value to your team.
A collection of average pitches (though the sweeper rates very highly) backed by just better than average velocity and just below-average command has predictabily put Mitch Keller right in average territory most years. Over the last three years, he’s averaged top-90 value among starters, he has a job, and he can be really useful at home (career 4.01 ERA at home, 5.20 on the road), so in most leagues, he is useful with a little bit of upside. But he can also be tough to roster. Even just using him at home last year would have meant eating some not-so-great starts, like the six runs he gave up against the Cardinals in July. Still, by picking your spots, you can augment his value to your team.
He’s a 27 year old in his prime, a lefty that just a year ago had one of the hardest fastballs in the game, and he had a two-year stretch from 2022-2023 where he kept his ERA in the low threes with near-thirty-percent strikeout rates. So why isn’t Jesús Luzardo ranked higher? For one, he has a poor health rating after missing so much of last year with a back problem (not to forget the elbow soreness he experienced early in the season, or his other various ailments, either). Secondly, so much depends on that velocity. The shapes on his fastballs are not ideal, and he becomes a one-note pitcher even at 95-96 mph. If he can push those radar gun readings back up, he’ll make this ranking look bad, but count me skeptical.
He’s a 27 year old in his prime, a lefty that just a year ago had one of the hardest fastballs in the game, and he had a two-year stretch from 2022-2023 where he kept his ERA in the low threes with near-thirty-percent strikeout rates. So why isn’t Jesús Luzardo ranked higher? For one, he has a poor health rating after missing so much of last year with a back problem (not to forget the elbow soreness he experienced early in the season, or his other various ailments, either). Secondly, so much depends on that velocity. The shapes on his fastballs are not ideal, and he becomes a one-note pitcher even at 95-96 mph. If he can push those radar gun readings back up, he’ll make this ranking look bad, but count me skeptical.
He’s a 27 year old in his prime, a lefty that just a year ago had one of the hardest fastballs in the game, and he had a two-year stretch from 2022-2023 where he kept his ERA in the low threes with near-thirty-percent strikeout rates. So why isn’t Jesús Luzardo ranked higher? For one, he has a poor health rating after missing so much of last year with a back problem (not to forget the elbow soreness he experienced early in the season, or his other various ailments, either). Secondly, so much depends on that velocity. The shapes on his fastballs are not ideal, and he becomes a one-note pitcher even at 95-96 mph. If he can push those radar gun readings back up, he’ll make this ranking look bad, but count me skeptical.
Did you know that José Soriano *sat* 99 mph on his sinker last season? Maybe in a related matter, he’s had a hard time staying healthy, with last year’s 113 innings being the high-water mark for his career. But the stuff is tantalizing, since it comes with an emerging splitter that the model thinks could be plus (119 Stuff+) and two breaking pitches that rate right around average. A late-season MRI was clean after he experienced shoulder and elbow soreness, but if he stays in one piece, he could put up a season that has way more in common with vintage Sandy Alcantara seasons than most people will have predicted.
Did you know that José Soriano *sat* 99 mph on his sinker last season? Maybe in a related matter, he’s had a hard time staying healthy, with last year’s 113 innings being the high-water mark for his career. But the stuff is tantalizing, since it comes with an emerging splitter that the model thinks could be plus (119 Stuff+) and two breaking pitches that rate right around average. A late-season MRI was clean after he experienced shoulder and elbow soreness, but if he stays in one piece, he could put up a season that has way more in common with vintage Sandy Alcantara seasons than most people will have predicted.
Did you know that José Soriano *sat* 99 mph on his sinker last season? Maybe in a related matter, he’s had a hard time staying healthy, with last year’s 113 innings being the high-water mark for his career. But the stuff is tantalizing, since it comes with an emerging splitter that the model thinks could be plus (119 Stuff+) and two breaking pitches that rate right around average. A late-season MRI was clean after he experienced shoulder and elbow soreness, but if he stays in one piece, he could put up a season that has way more in common with vintage Sandy Alcantara seasons than most people will have predicted.
(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Chris Szagola / Associated Press; Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire; Duane Burleson / Associated Press)
