On Saturday, No. 1 Auburn visits No. 2 Alabama. On Sunday, resurgent St. John’s, up to No. 9, and Rick Pitino host No. 24 Creighton at Madison Square Garden for Johnnies Day. What a world. On to your questions.
(Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.)
Is the two-bid Big West and three-bid West Coast Conference a reality or a doomed dream? What about a two-bid Missouri Valley Conference? — Benjamin H.
I would love all of these things, but the system is built for high-major teams to get in. It’s conceivable two Big West teams and two Missouri Valley teams get in if both Drake and UC San Diego were to lose in their conference tourneys. Drake, which has only two losses, is currently No. 57 in the NET with a 2-0 record in Quad 1. Typically for teams in the 50s to get in, they need strong resume numbers, and Drake is No. 35 in strength of record, No. 42 in KPI and No. 40 in wins above bubble. Indiana State had similar resume numbers last year and a No. 29 NET rating and did not get in, but maybe the Q1 results will help Drake. (The Sycamores were 1-4 in Q1.)
UC San Diego’s resume-based ratings are in the 50s but it is slightly higher than Drake in the NET (No. 50) and it is 2-1 in Quad 1, but just 0-1 in Quad 2. This is where the mid-majors get killed. They just do not have as many chances at resume-building wins.
When we’re just looking at league quality, you would think three WCC bids is within reason. The league is currently the seventh-best in the country at KenPom, and here’s the number of bids for the seventh-best league at KenPom over the past five tournaments:
2024: Mountain West — six bids
2023: ACC — five bids
2022: Mountain West — four bids
2021: American — two bids
2019: Pac-12 — three bids
The problem is that the selection committee does not consider league strength; it’s all about the teams, and I’m not sure there’s a third team with the numbers to get in. Santa Clara, at No. 54 in the NET, would be the one vying for a spot, but its resume-based metrics are not great. The only scenario where the WCC gets three in is probably Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s having strong finishes, and then Santa Clara or Oregon State winning the conference tourney.
If we ever do get tournament expansion, I wish for a rule where a certain number of mid-majors are part of play-in games, and every regular-season champ that did not win its conference tournament is put in that pool. Everyone loves watching these teams play in March. It stunk not seeing Indiana State play in the NCAA Tournament in 2024. That team was a blast to watch and is also a perfect example of how a worthy mid-major team can get left out.
And when it comes to possible changes down the road, no one with power is actually going to be fighting for mid-majors, so I’m not holding my breath on a mid-major-friendly change. — CJ Moore, national college basketball writer
Will Hubert Davis step down? — W. Robert L
If the jersey didn’t say UNC, would that team really even be on the bubble right now? — Rscj1964
After Monday’s 20-point loss to Clemson, what’s the future for the UNC coaching staff? — Tom V.
North Carolina fans: Straight up not having a good time!
Nor should they be. For the second time in three seasons, a top-10 preseason UNC team is poised to miss the NCAA Tournament. That is not good, neither for the program nor Hubert Davis. You cannot regularly be missing March Madness at a blue blood like North Carolina. You just cannot. I’ve been on record saying that I didn’t believe Davis deserves to be fired after this season — but that was admittedly before the Duke and Clemson games, two lopsided, double-digit blowouts in just over a week.
Final.#CarolinaFamily | @WellsFargo pic.twitter.com/Mm0Gg70le2
— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) February 11, 2025
Davis’ comments on his radio show recently — that he’d be hiring a general manager next season, that the old UNC way no longer works — sounds a lot like someone who intends to be back next season. Prior to the last week, that was my understanding of the situation, too: UNC planned to maximize and update its infrastructure around Davis, and let him focus more specifically on coaching. Davis definitely hasn’t done his best coaching job this season, but he’s tried more things than most fans give him credit for, even if some of the experimentation has led to confusion, defensive lapses, and most recently, players underperforming (like freshman Ian Jackson, who has devolved from a 20-point constant to almost a zero). But as long as the floor didn’t fall out on UNC, Davis seemed safe, even if the Tar Heels did wind up outside of the field.
I’m less confident in that assessment today. UNC’s body language at Pitt, at Duke and at Clemson is that of a team that, frankly, has given up. Some of that is chemistry issues — let’s just say, expect to see some departures this offseason — but more so, it’s a team that looks like it has had its spirit broken through a combination of close losses, almost-comebacks, and most recently, flat-out blowouts. No decision has been made on Davis’ future yet, but if the Tar Heels continue deteriorating like they have in the past 10 days — and if fan apathy keeps growing at its current rate — then keeping Davis for a fifth season might become a tougher sell.
There is no obvious candidate to replace him from inside the family — I cannot be more clear that UNC must go outside the family for its long-term health — but decision-makers in Chapel Hill are still wrangling with that reality. I can still see a path to Davis being back, with a GM and perhaps some shakeup among his assistants, but that decision is becoming much tougher by the game for athletic director Bubba Cunningham. — Brendan Marks, national college basketball writer
Is there any (TIMEOUT) chance that the NCAA (TIMEOUT) would ever realize (TIMEOUT) that too many (TIMEOUT) (TIMEOUT) timeouts in the last 5 minutes of (TIMEOUT) games are killing the (TIMEOUT) buzz?
Especially with the (TIMEOUT) number of replay stoppages that now exist (TIMEOUT) certainly we can eliminate (TIMEOUT) coaches timeouts in the (TIMEOUT) last (TIMEOUT) (TIMEOUT) 5 minutes of games! — Kevin P., Hartford
First, this question made me LOL, so thank you for that.
It’s true that lately when I’m watching college hoops, I sometimes wonder if I’ve flipped to an NBA game because the last few minutes are taking foreverrrrr to finish. But I feel compelled to admit that I seem to be one of the few reporters who is adamant about men’s college basketball changing its rules to include advancing the ball in the final minute of play which would take … a timeout. So maybe I’m part of the problem?
In truth, reviews are the biggest culprit because many of them take an absurdly long time to complete. I don’t think there’s a blanket solution for this, but I know everyone is frustrated by it — fans, coaches, even officials themselves — and trying to figure out how to fix it. I don’t see a scenario where coaches agree to give up a timeout during regulation, no matter how much calling timeouts might kill the flow of a game. And in general, men’s basketball coaches seem resistant to change just because they’re stubborn (why is men’s college the only basketball, at any level, still playing halves instead of quarters? It’s 2025, people!).
If anyone has the power to change this, it’s going to be TV executives because way too many games are running over their allotted two-hour window, which is going to cause more and more headaches. — Lindsay Schnell, national college basketball writer
Do you think Wake Forest’s “No 3’s offense” is sustainable? Could this team make a little run in the tourney? — Zach W.
Can St. John’s style of play translate to tournament success? — Luke M.
These two questions hit on similar points, stylistically. Both Wake Forest and St. John’s rank in the bottom-20 nationally in 3-point percentage and in the bottom-30 in percentage of points scored via the 3-pointer, per KenPom. Those numbers are jarring in an era where 3-point attempts are ever increasing and spacing is at a premium.
Defensively, these two teams also have similar blueprints. They are extremely athletic and switchable at the two-through-four positions, helping them pressure and generate turnovers at a high rate. Both have an intimidating rim presence (Efton Reid, Zuby Ejiofor) that makes scoring near the bucket a real challenge.
Generally, I do think this overall approach can be viable in the postseason. Both teams are so stout defensively that it gives them a relatively high floor of performance. Analytically, two of the most similar teams to this year’s St. John’s squad are 2012 Louisville and 2015 Louisville, two Rick Pitino teams that made the Final Four and Elite Eight, respectively.
The major difference between the two, at least offensively, is that Wake Forest does not get to the offensive glass with any ferocity. St. John’s ranks 15th nationally in offensive rebound rate, while Wake is a dismal 274th (KenPom). If you cannot make shots, accumulating extra opportunities is a decent workaround to piecing together an efficient offense. Without those second chances, Wake Forest’s offensive floor is alarmingly low.
Hunter Sallis’ individual brilliance can carry the Demon Deacons only so far, so it’s hard to envision them beating two quality opponents (or even three, if they get sent to Dayton) en route to a Sweet 16 berth. The Red Storm, on the other hand, have the maniacal offensive rebounding to make their defense-first approach sustainable. I expect the Pitino-led Red Storm to be playing on the second weekend, a thorn in the side of whichever top seed draws the unfortunate short straw of seeing them in its region. — Jim Root, college basketball contributor
After the Pac-12 implosion, four teams joined the Big 12. Unsurprisingly, Arizona is doing well in basketball, but the other three teams have a total of eight wins, with Colorado yet to win a game. What do you think the reason is behind this? — James S.
Ugh, don’t remind me that my conference went kaput. The WCC patches on my alma mater’s jerseys are a fresh knife to the heart every time I see them.
It takes time to adjust to a new conference, not just in terms of travel and style of play, but coaching. Coaches who go against each other in the same conference for years know what to expect from the other bench in tight games, and can often adjust accordingly. Right now it’s a whole new world for these four former Pac-12 teams; Arizona is adjusting better simply because the Wildcats have more talent.
You mention that Colorado has yet to win a conference game, but if you study final scores, I’d argue Utah is more concerning. The Utes have won five conference games, but they’ve also been blown out in a lot of their losses (the 70-36 loss to Houston was not a misprint; I triple-checked). Colorado, which has lost four games by 8 points or less, has a different problem in that the Buffs just don’t know how to close out games. Colorado coach Tad Boyle is 62, and he’s been in Boulder 15 years, but given that the Buffs made the Round of 32 just last season, I don’t think he’s going anywhere.
All this being said, I’m particularly interested to see what happens at Colorado and Arizona State considering those schools are riding high on football success. Sometimes that gives men’s basketball, the other major revenue-producing sport, more time to get its act together, and other times it puts more pressure to win and win now. Let’s check back in a year. —Schnell
What team that has struggled as of late (however you’d like to define it) do you have the most belief in to make the second weekend? — Alexander H.
Fascinating question. Like, does Illinois count? The Illini have dealt with some injuries recently, most notably Tomislav Ivisic missing three games with a sprained ankle, and are 5-5 over their past 10 games after Tuesday night’s 83-78 win over UCLA. But I’m still a believer in Brad Underwood’s team, especially with its offensive potency and size. Illinois has been a top-20 team in adjusted offensive efficiency all season, rebounds well, and despite some recent struggles, still has Kasparas Jakucionis. (Sshhh, we don’t have to talk about the 3-point shooting.) Illinois won’t win the Big Ten, but I can easily see it winning two (or more) games come March.
Same with UConn, if the Huskies qualify. I don’t believe the defense is going to reach a championship caliber this season, but Dan Hurley just got freshman wing Liam McNeeley back — he had become arguably the team’s best offensive option before a high ankle sprain cost him eight games, and dropped 38 against Creighton to prove that’s still true — and still runs some of the best offense in the sport. After Tuesday night’s 70-66 win over Creighton, the Huskies are 5-4 in their past nine games and well outside of the Big East picture, but are you actually picking against Hurley in March? Me neither.
But the real answer, and maybe my personal bias is coming through here, is Marquette. Three straight losses prior to Tuesday’s win over DePaul have dropped the Golden Eagles outside of KenPom’s top 20, and per Bart Torvik, from Jan. 1 to Tuesday afternoon, Marquette hasn’t even played like a top-50 team nationally. That’s because Shaka Smart’s team has been atrocious on the glass and has struggled mightily from 2-point range — not to mention playing UConn, St. John’s and Creighton back to back to back. I am worried about the rebounding especially, but in Kam Jones, Marquette has one of the potential stars of March, and it feels like forever since all of Stevie Mitchell, Chase Ross and David Joplin have clicked in the same game. (Might be time for Shaka to unplug Mitchell’s controller and restart it.) That time is coming, and so is Marquette. Fade the Golden Eagles at your own risk. — Marks
(Photo of Drake’s Mitch Mascari and Northern Iowa’s Trey Campbell: Cody Scanlan / The Register / USA Today via Imagn Images)
