Ahead of major tentpole events in the NHL calendar, our team at The Athletic’s Vancouver bureau often finds it useful to complete an exercise in which we map out what an ideal trade deadline or offseason could look like.
This year, however, the Vancouver Canucks’ overall positioning going into the deadline is as complex and difficult as it’s been in a decade.
The Canucks are both a probable playoff team and a team that’s already transformed itself and reset its overall direction with the two-part J.T. Miller trade two weeks ago. They’re a team that can’t really afford to rebuild given the age and contract timelines of their best players, but is also not especially close to contending for the Stanley Cup — the Canucks are valued as a 60-to-1 longshot to win the Stanley Cup in the outright betting markets at the moment.
Vancouver’s Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin-led hockey operations department finds itself at a complicated crossroads as the March 7 trade deadline approaches. This team is too good to behave like an outright seller, but not really at the level where paying future assets for rental players can be logically justified.
With all of this context in mind, how should Canucks management approach the trade deadline? We’ve mapped out a seven-step plan for what a “perfect” hybrid deadline might look like.
1. Hold on Elias Pettersson unless the offer is truly exceptional
Elias Pettersson is by far the biggest X-factor in determining the Canucks’ organizational ceiling over the next couple of years.
By now, everyone is familiar with the situation: The 26-year-old Swede has produced like a star first-line centre for most of his career, but he’s come under fire for wildly underperforming expectations over the last calendar year. Pettersson has scored 18 goals and 59 points in 82 regular-season games since last year’s All-Star break. He was mostly a non-factor in the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs, too. The timing of this couldn’t be worse now that he’s in the first season of an eight-year, $11.6 million AAV contract.
This isn’t a case of him being remarkably snakebitten, either; his shot and chance generation metrics have fallen off sharply, and NHL Edge data shows a clear drop-off in his skating and shot velocity compared to two years ago.
It’s hard to pinpoint why he’s struggled to this degree over such a large sample: Is the knee tendonitis injury he played through in the second half of last season still causing lingering effects? Is it a confidence-related problem? It’s probably a correlation of factors.
Last month the Canucks seriously considered trading Pettersson before deciding to ultimately move Miller, which was always the more likely first domino for the club. With Miller gone now, however, it behooves the Canucks to hang on to Pettersson beyond the deadline. Given how expensive and difficult it is to acquire high-end top-six centres, it would take a miracle to subtract both Miller and Pettersson in one season and expect management to quickly replace them with an effective one-two punch down the middle that can keep Vancouver competitive.
Pettersson deserves an opportunity down the stretch to prove that he’s still capable of being an elite player. If he’s traded, Vancouver would be left with zero star forwards. If Pettersson doesn’t bounce back, the Canucks are stuck with that same lack of star forwards problem, but you can still trade him before his July 1 no-movement clause kicks in if he continues spinning his tires, or if his work rate doesn’t tick back up.
In addition to performing like a true No. 1 centre again, Pettersson needs to level up as a leader. Allvin’s public commentary on Pettersson has implied that the organization wasn’t thrilled with his offseason preparation and training. Pettersson needs to follow in Quinn Hughes’ footsteps when it comes to how obsessed and dedicated he is to working on his craft and evolving as a leader.
2. Sell Brock Boeser if an extension compromise can’t be reached, and give Jonathan Lekkerimäki games down the stretch
The vibes and defensive buy-in around the Canucks have improved significantly since the club’s two big trades. They’re clearly a playoff-calibre team, but the odds of them going on a deep run and legitimately challenging for the Cup are very slim this season. Vancouver is 31st in the NHL for goals scored per game since Jan. 1. The top-six forward group doesn’t look anywhere close to being championship-calibre, especially with Pettersson wilting.
With all that in mind, the Canucks shouldn’t let Brock Boeser walk for nothing in the summer as a free agent. They aren’t strong enough contenders this year to justify using him as their own rental.
In a perfect world, the Canucks would get Boeser locked up to a long-term contract extension at a reasonable rate. Realistically, however, the cap hit on Boeser’s next contract could start at $8 million and with maximum, or nearly maximum, term attached.
It’s tempting to re-sign Boeser because of the club’s scoring woes, the rising salary cap and his success over the last season and a half. A contract in the neighbourhood of seven or eight years with an $8.5 million AAV, however, would probably exceed this management group’s tolerance for risk.
If Boeser’s priority is to seize his first opportunity to test the market as an unrestricted free agent and get paid full market value, the Canucks would be wise to consider trading him at the deadline. Yes, it’d be a painful blow to the team this year, but those assets would be critical trade chips that the front office could leverage to acquire other players and hopefully ice a true contender over the next two seasons while Hughes is still under contract. Plus, as we’ll explain in the next section, trading Boeser doesn’t have to mean that you’re giving up on this season.
Jonathan Lekkerimäki should get an extended top-six audition if the Canucks trade Boeser. When you search for statistical comparables for Lekkerimäki based on his current age, AHL production (16 goals and 24 points in 27 games) and first-round draft pedigree, most of them eventually developed into top-six NHL producers. Many of them also got lengthy auditions in the NHL during their draft-plus-three season, which Lekkerimäki is currently in.
Giving the 20-year-old sniper a consistent opportunity down the stretch would serve two purposes: It’d give management a clearer idea of how impactful he may be as a full-time NHLer next season, which aids in offseason roster planning, and Lekkerimäki could reach his potential sooner if he gains extra big league reps down the stretch.
3. Don’t rush to trade Carson Soucy
Carson Soucy was a breakout performer in a top-four role for the Canucks last season, but his form has been deeply inconsistent throughout his second Vancouver campaign and he’s ended up on the trade block.
The 30-year-old blueliner is a versatile defender capable of playing on either the left or the right side. He’s best suited to a third pair role, but demonstrated last year some ability to play up the lineup and maintain exceptional defensive results. For whatever reason, and the amount the club has relied on him defensively may be part of the story, he wasn’t able to maintain his momentum from his first Canucks season.
Now that the club has Marcus Pettersson in the lineup, and Elias Pettersson impressing as well on the left side, there’s an argument that Soucy has become redundant and the club would be best off reallocating Soucy’s $3.25 million salary — his contract, which carries a full no-trade clause, runs through the 2025-26 campaign. If the club can return value for Soucy, that’s one thing, but they shouldn’t be in a rush to dump a steady, versatile defender at a cut-rate price.
Even with the two Petterssons causing a logjam on the left side of the blue line, Soucy can still be a useful player, especially given his ability to hold down minutes on the right side. It’s possible, even likely, that if Soucy is tasked with playing a third pair role against more limited competition too, that he’d be more effective and rebuild some trade market value over the next 12 months.
Soucy is useful enough and his value is distressed enough today that the club would be best served waiting. He’s useful depth through the life of this contract and should have more trade value as a rental in 12 months anyway, especially given that his no-trade clause becomes modified next season.
4. Work to extend Kevin Lankinen at a reasonable clip
There’s a feeling within the Canucks that Kevin Lankinen has carried this team for long stretches this season, and that sentiment is entirely fair.
The veteran puck-stopper has been an exceptional find for Canucks management and has performed admirably in heavy usage, especially early in the season while Thatcher Demko recuperated from his serious knee injury. A pending unrestricted free agent, Lankinen has put himself in line to earn a major pay raise especially with the cap rising and the market for quality depth goaltending spiking significantly.
Given the contractual and durability uncertainty around Demko and the way Lankinen has earned the trust of Canucks coaches and his teammates, finding a way to extend Lankinen ahead of the deadline should be a significant organizational priority. A three- or four-year deal worth somewhere in the $3.5 to $4 million range would represent a reasonable clip for Lankinen’s services at this juncture, based on his age and track record of average (or better) performance at the NHL level.
The Canucks shouldn’t balk at getting a deal like that done in short order.
5. Hold Thatcher Demko and play him frequently to gather intel
Demko is the Canucks’ other star player surrounded by major question marks.
The 29-year-old is one of the most talented puck-stoppers on the planet, but his durability is becoming a red flag. Over the years, he’s dealt with a variety of injuries that have caused him to miss time, most notably an unprecedented knee ailment that sidelined him for seven months last year. Demko struggled initially upon returning this season — which was understandable given how long he’d been out — but he rediscovered his elite play, notching a .952 save percentage in his last four games before getting hurt again midgame last Saturday against the Maple Leafs. So far, in his 17 starts this season, Demko has left the game with an injury twice.
Vancouver has a tough decision to make on Demko’s future, especially since he only has one year left beyond this season at a $5 million cap hit and becomes extension-eligible on July 1.
If the Canucks believe that Demko’s durability issues will prevent him from ever becoming a star-level goaltender again, and if they’re confident in Lankinen as a medium-term solution, it’d be tempting to trade Demko sometime before the start of next season. There’d be no shortage of teams willing to pay a decent package for him, even with his injury risk, because of how scarce high-level goaltenders with Demko’s upside are. On the other hand, given that Vezina-calibre upside, can the Canucks afford to give up on a player with elite potential who could increase this team’s ceiling as a contender next season?
In our eyes, there’s no need to rush this high-leverage decision before the deadline. It’s in the Canucks’ best interests to gather maximum information on his health and play down the stretch so that management can make the most informed decision possible on his future in the summer.
Of course, step one will be for him to get healthy again after his most recent injury. Hopefully, it’s just a short-term ailment like the back spasms he dealt with in early January.
6. No own rentals
As we’ve already spelled out, the Canucks are a heavy favourite to make the playoffs, but given the lack of juice in their lineup, management should still proceed as if they’re a fringe playoff team between now and the trade deadline.
The deadline can be a useful pressure point to stimulate contract talks with a team’s own pending unrestricted free agents. While the Canucks would do well to utilize that pressure point and attempt to find a reasonable compromise with their most marketable depth pieces, if such a compromise can’t be found, the club should be taking stock of their expiring assets and should scrupulously manage the risk on permitting moderately valuable veterans to walk out the door in unrestricted free agency without compensation.
Players like depth defender Derek Forbort should be attractive enough to contending teams that the Canucks could net a mid-round pick on the trade market at the deadline, and even a player like Noah Juulsen could potentially net a late-round pick as a depth addition — especially as he’s right-handed and legitimately exceptional on the penalty kill. If affordable extensions can’t be struck, those are deals the Canucks should strongly consider.
Middle-six centre Pius Suter is the highest-calibre Canucks player in this situation. He’d likely net a second- or third-round pick in a deal at the deadline given his production and versatility, but his situation is more complicated. Suter plays a premium role, filling a spot in the lineup where Vancouver is very shallow.
If an agreement can’t be reached with Suter ahead of the trade deadline, there’s no question that trading him would weaken the Canucks significantly. These are the sorts of difficult decisions that a club in this position needs to be willing to make, however, with the big picture in mind.
7. Explore the trade market for upside non-rentals, be willing to spend assets gained from seller trades to improve
If the Canucks can’t get Boeser extended at a reasonable clip and the two sides can’t compromise on an extension, that doesn’t mean the club is a classic deadline seller. They’re in a transitional phase where they’re selling and buying at the same time. They would still be likely to make the playoffs with such a hybrid deadline approach.
This front office’s work selling Miller and then immediately flipping those assets to acquire and extend Marcus Pettersson as a core long-term piece and Drew O’Connor is a perfect example of that. It’s also similar to what management did two years ago when they sold Bo Horvat and then cashed some of those futures in to acquire Filip Hronek.
The Capitals, who’ve pulled off a masterful retool on the fly, executed this hybrid deadline strategy well a couple of years ago. Washington shipped pending UFA Dmitry Orlov to Boston in a deal in which it received a first-round pick. The Caps used that first-round pick from the Bruins to trade for Rasmus Sandin, who was 22 at the time and has blossomed into a solid second-pair defender. If Boeser can’t be re-signed, the Canucks should hunt for a similar two-step strategy to replenish the roster in a way that will not only help the club this season, but next year too.
Acquiring players with high-end top-six potential, especially at centre, should be the top priority when searching for non-rentals. We outlined some of the more obvious potential targets earlier this week, but as the Hronek trade showed, sometimes there are under-the-radar trade opportunities available, too.
(Photo of Carson Soucy, Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser: Jonathan Kozub / NHLI via Getty Images)
