Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
As the days get longer and the wait until Selection Sunday gets shorter, it becomes easier to lock more teams into the men’s NCAA Tournament field. This was a big separation week for the upper group, as we welcomed five more teams into the utopian realm of Lockdom. That brings the total in that category to 23 squads, along with 12 other “Should Be In” teams. The bubble is shrinking.
Speaking of those locks, we’d like to offer a quick commentary on a couple of teams in that grouping.
First, the conundrum inside a mystery box that is Illinois. The Illini have been classified as a Lock since the first edition of this article, and we stand by that label. But with injuries (Morez Johnson’s broken wrist) and illness (a lot of players, it sounds like?) continuing to plague the roster, the losses are starting to pile up. The end-of-season schedule is no pushover, either, so Illinois’ classification could get tested.
The other team worth mentioning here is Kentucky. The Wildcats may not have had a great week, but the committee slotting them on the No. 3 line during its initial bracket reveal tells us how highly the powers that be regard UK’s massive collection of top-end wins. Thus, even after splitting its two games in the past week, Kentucky has been bumped into the Lock category — those sparkling wins are not going anywhere.
Further down in the bubble realm, Kansas State’s surge may have run out of steam in the Mountain time zone. However, another purple Big 12 team, TCU, has climbed onto the radar. Keep an eye on the Horned Frogs, as momentum can be a powerful thing this time of year.
Many of the fringe candidates took losses that knocked them out of the conversation. We waved goodbye to Villanova (though we’ll be eyeing the Wildcats as a bid stealer at Madison Square Garden) and under-.500 Arizona State, among others.
The SEC’s bubblers are also losing steam; the conference’s nine locked teams have separated from the group below them. Without more wins for Oklahoma, Georgia and the rest, the conference may come up short on its dream of setting the record for most NCAA Tournament bids by a single league.
For a projection of the actual bracket, make sure to check out Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch. And here are some ground rules for navigating the Bubble Watch below:
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration — a win away from being a win away.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement
Up to Lock: Arizona, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi State, Texas Tech
Up to Should Be In: None
Up to In the Mix: TCU
Added to On the Fringe: Utah
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: Kansas State, USC
Dropped from On the Fringe: Arizona State, Georgetown, Oregon State, Stanford, UCF, Villanova
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ACC
Locks: Duke
Should Be In: Clemson, Louisville
In the Mix: North Carolina, Pitt, SMU, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Clemson
What They Need: Clemson continues to creep closer to Lock territory after demolishing Florida State on the road on Saturday. Only a catastrophic swoon to end the year in a series of Q3 games could put Clemson at risk now. Realistically, another road win Saturday at SMU, Clemson’s final tournament-caliber regular season opponent, would probably seal coach Brad Brownell’s second straight trip to the Big Dance.
Louisville
What They Need: Like Clemson, Louisville has the week off after a resounding weekend win on the road. Also like Clemson, Louisville has a series of risky Q3 games to close the season. In practice, though, the Cardinals would be tough to keep out now that they’ve hit 20 wins, so as long as they split their games this week — vs. Florida State on Saturday, at Virginia Tech next Tuesday — they will jump to Lock status in next week’s edition.
In The Mix
North Carolina
Profile Strengths: Excellent nonconference SOS, six wins away from Chapel Hill.
Profile Weaknesses: Gruesome 1-10 record vs. Q1, well under .500 vs. Q1/Q2, sliding metrics.
Looking Ahead: UNC’s bubble nearly burst at Syracuse on Saturday, but the Tar Heels snuck past the Orange to fight another day. Torching NC State at home on Wednesday night was necessary but not a needle-mover, either. The Heels must continue navigating the ACC minefield (vs. Virginia on Saturday, at Florida State on Monday) before their much-anticipated rematch with Duke.
Pitt
Profile Strengths: Balanced resume and quality metrics, strong nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: No surefire wins against the field, took a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: No neutral observer would confuse Pitt with a team that is playing well. The Panthers had to recover from glacially slow starts in must-win home games against Miami and Syracuse, both of whom have been awful in ACC play. But the fact of the matter is that Pitt did win both games, keeping it on the outskirts of the at-large discussion for the time being. Upcoming tussles at Notre Dame (Saturday) and versus Georgia Tech (Tuesday) could finally break the Panthers’ spirits, but two more wins — however they come — would give them a chance.
SMU
Profile Strengths: Solid record vs. top two quadrants, no bad losses, 9-2 road/neutral.
Profile Weaknesses: Zero Q1 wins, poor nonconference SOS, no more shots at Duke.
Looking Ahead: SMU’s shorthanded home loss to Wake Forest on Saturday night was doubly harmful. First, it took away a chance to bolster the Mustangs’ Q2 record. Second, it gave an ACC bubble rival a massive road head-to-head result. SMU responded by obliterating Notre Dame on Wednesday, but the top of the Ponies’ resume is going to be barren unless they can take down Clemson in Dallas on Saturday. Even then, SMU is banking heavily on metrics and no bad losses as its argument.
Wake Forest
Profile Strengths: Relatively clean resume (one loss outside of Q1), excellent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only one win over a likely tournament team.
Looking Ahead: The Demon Deacons pulled out one of their best performances of the season this weekend, disposing of SMU on the road by double-digits to add a badly needed Q1 victory. That win offset Wake’s home collapse against Florida State last week, and it even bolstered the Deacs’ predictive metrics. Wake looks surprisingly solid now, especially if it can navigate three winnable games coming up next: at NC State, then hosting Virginia and Notre Dame.
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Big 12
Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor
In the Mix: BYU, Cincinnati, TCU, West Virginia
On the Fringe: Kansas State, Utah
Should Be In
Baylor
What They Need: The Bears continued their win-one, lose-one pattern this week, edging West Virginia in overtime before coming up short against Arizona on Big Monday. Baylor’s case is taking on water with 10 losses already, and though they are still in solid shape, the Bears need to be careful. Dangerous road trips to Colorado and Cincinnati in the next seven days could make the discussion surprisingly uncomfortable.
In The Mix
BYU
Profile Strengths: Tremendous quality metrics, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The Cougars utterly dominated Kansas on Tuesday night, 91-57, to complete a home sweep of the Kansas schools. They now appear to be a likely at-large team, and their quality metrics could even get them a seed comfortably above the cutline. If their resume metrics were not still in the mid-40s on average, they might have crept up to “Should Be In” status. A win at Arizona on Saturday would ensure that bump, but even a split of the upcoming Arizona-ASU road swing should boost BYU’s already-strong chances even further.
Cincinnati
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, solid quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: 0-9 vs. Q1, no headline victories, poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: Cincinnati came up just short of completing a miracle comeback in the final 10 seconds at West Virginia on Wednesday. Instead, the Bearcats took a tough 0-2 week on the road, suffering two more Q1 losses. Their ineffectiveness against top competition is a major problem, so they need to find a way to beat Baylor next Tuesday. Up first, though, is a home game against surging TCU this weekend.
TCU
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, multiple wins against other bubble squads.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, well under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Well hello, TCU, welcome to Bubble Watch! The Horned Frogs have won five of their last six, including Tuesday night’s huge Q1 takedown of Texas Tech, to tiptoe into the at-large discussion. They still have work to do, and this week’s road trip — at Cincinnati Saturday, at West Virginia Tuesday — is tricky. But it also presents two more Q1 win opportunities against fellow Big 12 bubblers.
West Virginia
Profile Strengths: Four Q1A wins (best of the bubble teams), no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Still under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: The Mountaineers played two tight battles this week, falling at Baylor in OT over the weekend before sneaking by Cincinnati at home. That’s called “holding serve” in bubble land, keeping the Mountaineers on the right side of the cutline. That’s all WVU needs to do to eventually go dancing. Another 1-1 week — at Texas Tech, hosting TCU — would maintain that trajectory, and a sweep would bump the Mountaineers up a rung to “Should Be In.”
Big East
Locks: Marquette, St. John’s
Should Be In: Creighton, UConn
In the Mix: Xavier
On the Fringe: None
Should Be In
Creighton
What They Need: The Bluejays get a much-needed week off after Ryan Kalkbrenner got banged up in a loss at St. John’s on Sunday. That setback undercut their chances at a Big East regular season title, but they are still in great shape to go dancing. The remaining schedule offers four possible bad losses sandwiched around a trip to Xavier. Creighton simply needs to avoid stepping on those landmines, starting with a desperate Georgetown team on Saturday.
UConn
What They Need: The two-time reigning national champions flirted with a disastrous week, nearly losing at home to Villanova after a stunning double-collapse (in regulation and again in OT) at Seton Hall last Saturday. That would have dropped UConn into the thick of the bubble melee. Fortunately, with a sweep at the hands of Kyle Neptune avoided, the Huskies remain safe-ish. Sunday’s much-anticipated rematch with St. John’s at Madison Square Garden presents a huge opportunity, but overall, the Huskies just need to split that one and their visit from Georgetown next Wednesday to maintain an at-large trajectory.
In The Mix
Xavier
Profile Strengths: Zero bad losses, huge resume-topping W at Marquette.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor resume metrics, only one Q1 win, 4-8 road/neutral record.
Looking Ahead: Xavier continued to check the necessary boxes, handling both DePaul and Butler by double digits at Cintas Center. Sunday’s trip to Seton Hall is another cannot-lose clash with a Big East also-ran. It will not push the Musketeers into the field, but a loss could solidify their spot outside of it. After that, Xavier gets the week off to prepare for a crucial stretch to close the regular season.
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Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Should Be In: Oregon, UCLA
In the Mix: Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio State
On the Fringe: Iowa, USC
Should Be In
Oregon
What They Need: The Ducks knocked off two non-tournament teams this past week to continue a strong trajectory towards an at-large bid. First, they handled Rutgers at home, and then they started their final Midwest road trip with an important win over a volatile Iowa squad. They could join the ranks of the Locks with a huge road upset at Wisconsin on Saturday. Considering how well the scorching Badgers are playing, that will be an immense challenge.
UCLA
What They Need: Tuesday night’s shocking home collapse against Minnesota keeps UCLA below true Lock status. It was the Bruins’ first Q3 loss of the season, and though they are still in prime position for a bid, it means they still need to snag another win or two to feel totally safe. At least we got another classic Mick Cronin press conference. UCLA has one game in the next nine days, hosting Ohio State on Sunday.
In The Mix
Indiana
Profile Strengths: Zero losses outside Q1, competitive resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Still lacking key wins, only a 3-11 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: Indiana’s resurgence lasted one game, as the Hoosiers could not quite finish the comeback against UCLA last Friday. They got eight full days off to circle the wagons, though, and their metrics remain squarely in bubble territory. They still need a couple of key wins to actually get into the field, which makes Sunday’s home date with rival Purdue a crucial one. The Hoosiers gave the Boilermakers all they could handle in West Lafayette, and Purdue is currently reeling, having lost three straight. IU is running out of chances to make a positive push, so it must take advantage.
Nebraska
Profile Strengths: Three high-end (Q1A) wins, very competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Took a Q3 loss, six-game losing streak is an eyesore.
Looking Ahead: It was not pretty, but Nebraska managed a 1-1 week on the road despite missing starting forward Berke Buyuktuncel. Still, trailing by 20-plus in two games against non-tournament teams is a worrisome sign long-term, even with the massive comeback at Northwestern. Nebraska is still in decent shape given its metrics and quadrant records, but it must play better basketball soon. Perhaps the weekend off will lead to a refreshed squad on Monday against Michigan.
Ohio State
Profile Strengths: Strong quality metrics, multiple elite wins away from Columbus, great nonconference SOS, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Shaky overall record (15-11), under .500 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Ohio State’s only game since our last Bubble Watch was a tough 86-83 home loss to Michigan. That’s no real harm done to the Buckeyes’ at-large chances, but it squeezes their room for error in games like Thursday’s against Northwestern. They then take the long trip west to L.A., taking on UCLA (Sunday) and USC (Wednesday) with chances to bolster their road resume. Ohio State is almost surely on the right side of the cutline as things stand, but a losing streak for a team that is only 15-11 overall would be a serious problem.
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SEC
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt
On the Fringe: None
In The Mix
Arkansas
Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Way below .500 against top two quadrants, simply need more wins.
Looking Ahead: Tough schedule or not, Arkansas needs wins. So despite two brutal road games at Texas A&M and Auburn, the Razorbacks had a bad week. Now just 15-11 overall and 4-11 in games in the top two quadrants, their margin for error is extremely thin. Home games against Missouri and Texas this week are both nearing must-win status; an 0-2 homestand would spell disaster. The Hogs are clearly playing better, but without victories, it will be for naught.
Georgia
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, no losses outside of Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 2-10 vs. Q1, only 1-6 on the road.
Looking Ahead: Georgia continued its slide down the S-Curve after getting trounced at home by Missouri on Saturday. The Bulldogs get a much needed week off to regroup after losing eight of their last 10. The next week offers massive opportunities — going to Auburn, hosting Florida — but the degree of difficulty is sky-high. If Georgia cannot pull off a huge upset, the path to the NCAA Tournament gets worryingly thin.
Oklahoma
Profile Strengths: Three huge neutral-court wins, outstanding metrics, only two losses outside Q1.
Profile Weaknesses: Starting to accumulate a lot of losses, tough schedule ahead.
Looking Ahead: OK, the hand is hovering directly over the panic button. The Sooners are not just losing, they are getting slaughtered, and picking up a 10th league loss already is going to have the vultures circling the Oklahoma camp. All is not lost, as the Sooners get two big Q1 home shots against Mississippi State (Saturday) and Kentucky (Wednesday), but this team does not look capable of beating anyone right now. Unless they right the ship in a hurry, Oklahoma is going to miss the NCAA Tournament after a flawless nonconference slate.
Texas
Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, four Q1 wins, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: Texas did what many other current bubblers have struggled to do lately: pull off a massive victory against a surefire NCAA Tournament opponent. The Longhorns clipped shorthanded Kentucky in Austin, taking advantage of a major opportunity that put them snugly in the field for now. Texas cannot get complacent, though, and must continue to stack wins as the schedule gets a little softer. Upcoming road trips to cellar dweller South Carolina (Saturday) and Arkansas (Wednesday) are both tricky but winnable.
Vanderbilt
Profile Strengths: Competitive metrics, no bad losses, headliner wins vs. Kentucky and Tennessee.
Profile Weaknesses: No key road/neutral wins, awful nonconference SOS.
Looking Ahead: The Commodores led for 30 minutes at Tennessee but could not quite complete the sweep of their in-state rival. They then ran into a Kentucky buzzsaw on Wednesday, getting blitzed in the second half. Vandy’s schedule has been brutal of late, and it does not get much easier coming up. Ole Miss comes to Nashville on Saturday, giving the Dores a chance at another impactful home victory, followed by a hyper-physical test at Texas A&M next Wednesday. Getting a split in any fashion would be massive.
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The Rest
Locks: None
Should Be In: Gonzaga, Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
In the Mix: Boise State, Drake, George Mason, San Diego State, San Francisco, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
On the Fringe: Bradley, Dayton, North Texas, Santa Clara
Should Be In
Gonzaga
What They Need: Gonzaga got another helpful road win at Washington State on Wednesday, supplementing its Q2 record. The Bulldogs now have three impact Q1 contests, starting with revenge opportunities against Saint Mary’s at home (Saturday) and on the road at Santa Clara (Tuesday). It is still tough to envision the Zags missing the NCAA Tournament, but with this remaining schedule and extremely shaky resume metrics, the Bulldogs’ ultimate range of outcomes is still quite wide. This season is a mirror image of last year: Down the stretch, Gonzaga’s at-large status seemed in doubt, but a late hot streak of key wins vaulted it all the way up to a No. 5 seed thanks to sparkling quality metrics. That could happen again.
Memphis
What They Need: Memphis took a second Q3 loss on Sunday, further displaying the frustration of playing in this year’s American. Nearly every team is good enough to beat the Tigers on a given night, but Memphis gains nothing when it wins. Fortunately, the Tigers remain in solid shape; their seeding is mostly what is suffering for now. To get closer to Lock status, they need to avoid additional disappointing defeats at home against FAU (Sunday) and Rice (Wednesday).
New Mexico
What They Need: New Mexico may have split the week, but it was still a highly productive seven days. The Lobos completed a home sweep of Utah State to seize control of the Mountain West, and they now hold the tiebreaker over the Aggies. Even a loss at Boise State on Wednesday night should not deter the good vibes in Albuquerque. Richard Pitino’s bunch is inching towards being a lock, and it could get even closer with a win at San Diego State next Tuesday after having the weekend off.
Saint Mary’s
What They Need: Saint Mary’s is nearing Lockdom as it continues to dismantle WCC competition. Washington State and Portland were the latest hapless victims amid the Gaels’ remarkably consistent season (it helps that Randy Bennett has been able to use the same starting lineup in every game). Should Saint Mary’s complete its season sweep of Gonzaga on Saturday at The Kennel, any remaining drama about the Gaels’ postseason projection would end.
Utah State
What They Need: The Aggies came up short in a huge game at The Pit on Sunday, falling to New Mexico to all but concede the Mountain West title race to the Lobos. While that surely is a tough pill to swallow, the Aggies looked no worse for the wear in handling San Jose State on Wednesday night, and they remain on track for an at-large bid. A huge week for potential seeding approaches: games against San Diego State (Saturday) and at Boise State (Wednesday) offer chances to push up the S-Curve. Going 2-0 would also lock the Aggies into the field.
In The Mix
Boise State
Profile Strengths: Two key nonconference wins, solid predictive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Resume metrics are relatively weak, have an ugly Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos bounced back from a loss at San Diego State to get a badly needed victory over Mountain West-leading New Mexico. Their numbers still leave them on the periphery of the discussion, and they may need a sweep this week to force their way onto the right side of the bubble. That means beating a talented Nevada team in Reno on Saturday followed by solving Utah State’s tricky zone back in Boise next Wednesday.
Drake
Profile Strengths: Gaudy overall record, two key power conference wins, sparkling road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited big-game opportunities.
Looking Ahead: Drake’s home loss to Bradley on Sunday hurt its chances to solidify its standing in both the at-large picture and the MVC title race. Fortunately, though, it was not a death blow to either aspiration. The Bulldogs needed to bounce back against UIC on Wednesday, and they did just that. Their resume metrics are still very much that of an NCAA Tournament team, and that’s likely where they are headed if they win out to the MVC title game. Sunday offers a Q2 opportunity on the road at a feisty Northern Iowa squad.
George Mason
Profile Strengths: Solid winning percentage in Q1+Q2 games.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, one loss each in Q3 and Q4.
Looking Ahead: The goal in basketball is to score more points than the other team, and George Mason continues to (barely) accomplish that feat. But style points are less important for tournament selection, so the Patriots’ winning ways — currently on an 11-game winning streak — are getting them closer and closer to an at-large selection. After a week off, GMU finally gets their biggest game of the A-10 season: a trip to VCU for a showdown that has massive NCAA Tournament and regular season title implications.
San Diego State
Profile Strengths: Home run neutral-site win against Houston, elite nonconference SOS, 8-3 road/neutral record.
Profile Weaknesses: Middling predictive metrics, one Q3 loss, limited win opportunities compared to power conference bubble rivals.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs are knocking on the door of the “Should Be In” category after a big week of two blowout home wins. They put fringe bubbler Boise State in a chokehold on Saturday, holding the Broncos to just 47 points, and then thrashed Fresno State on Wednesday night. Now, a giant week against the Mountain West’s two top teams looms: SDSU goes to Utah State on Saturday and then hosts New Mexico on Tuesday. Should the Aztecs manage a 2-0 week, they’ll flirt with Lock status, but even a split would elevate them to Should Be In.
San Francisco
Profile Strengths: Clean resume with no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics, only 1-4 vs. Q1.
Looking Ahead: San Francisco missed its road chance at Gonzaga, but the Dons responded appropriately by pulverizing San Diego on the road (of note: that arena is called Jenny Craig Pavilion, aka the Slim Gym). The Dons have one more “hold serve” game against Pacific on Thursday before a monumental final week of the season: at Oregon State, hosting Gonzaga. They likely need a 3-0 finish to truly have an at-large case, but the opportunity is on the table.
VCU
Profile Strengths: Strong overall record and road/neutral mark, above .500 against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Only one Q1 win, Q4 loss, iffy resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: Hopes for a two-bid Atlantic 10 remain alive thanks to VCU and George Mason’s continued winning. The Rams had the weekend off before easily disposing of UMass on Wednesday, setting up a colossal clash with George Mason in Richmond on Saturday. The winner of that game will be in solid — though certainly not comfortable — position entering the season’s final stretch.
UC Irvine
Profile Strengths: Extremely competitive resume metrics, 4-2 record against top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Two Q3 losses, limited opportunities to improve their stock.
Looking Ahead: The Anteaters survived an extremely close shave with a talented UC Santa Barbara team last Thursday to stay alive in the at-large picture. They followed it up by dominating Hawaii on the island Saturday, exhibiting the suffocating defense that makes them such a daunting opponent. Three more 2-0 weeks to close the regular season are likely necessary (and some style points wouldn’t hurt), starting with hosting CSUN (Thursday) and going to Cal State Bakersfield (Saturday).
UC San Diego
Profile Strengths: Top-notch road win at Utah State, gaudy overall record.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited big win opportunities.
Looking Ahead: UC San Diego just keeps winning — and winning by a lot. Since the Tritons lost to UC Riverside on Jan. 18, they have won seven games in a row by an average of 18.9 points. The smallest margin of victory in that span was 11 points. You cannot ask for much more from a mid-major bubble team, and UCSD must continue that impressive work this week at Cal Poly (Thursday) and against Hawaii (Saturday).
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(Photos of TCU’s Vasean Allette and Wake Forest’s Cameron Hildreth: Alex Slitz, Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
