Maybe 65 games doesn’t seem like a big ask, but we’re finding out it’s a pretty significant threshold. That’s how many games players need to play to qualify for most major awards and honors, including All-NBA, and that in concert with two recent extended absences could have some pretty major impacts across the league.
Put together, Anthony Davis’ adductor strain and Victor Wembanyama’s season-ending blood clot could lead to some wide-ranging secondary consequences. Connect the dots on some other situations around the league, and it represents a fascinating sliding doors moment for several players and teams. That’s particularly true if Giannis Antetokounmpo’s nagging calf injury causes him to miss more games as well; he has to play 20 of the Milwaukee Bucks’ final 26 games to qualify for All-NBA.
Let’s start with the most obvious stuff and then work our way down. First, Wembanyama was going to win Defensive Player of the Year, possibly unanimously. One of the next names on the list if he didn’t was Davis. Now, by rule, neither of them will (Wembanyama has only played 46 games, and Davis just 43).
The identity of that somebody else is an open question, but the two remaining favorites would seem to be the Memphis Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley — the two who, coincidentally, finished first and third in 2023 before Rudy Gobert took the award last season. (Neither player garnered a single vote in 2024; Mobley didn’t meet the games-played threshold, and Jackson’s injury-ravaged Grizzlies plummeted to 27-55.)
That, in turn, would have some pretty heavy contractual implications either way. For Mobley, his already-signed extension from last summer would boost to 30 percent of the salary cap if he wins Defensive Player of the Year, taking his 2025-26 salary from $38.7 million to $46.3 million and the overall value of the extension from a projected $224 million to a projected $269 million.
Moreover, winning Defensive Player of the Year could matter for Mobley even if he makes third-team All-NBA, because the latter honor would only entitle him to 27.5 percent of the cap based on the terms of his extension. Between the odds of being boosted from third team to second, and the odds of winning Defensive Player of the Year, there’s a very real chance the Wembanyama and Davis extended absences were worth $22.5 million for Mobley.
The team-planning implications of this for Cleveland could be significant; Mobley’s increased money likely pushes the Cavaliers past the second-apron threshold in 2025-26 and will make them more expensive in the out years as well. The Cavs had already planned on being a luxury-tax team with this loaded core (and wisely wriggled out of the tax this season to prevent the repeater clock from starting on them), but their roster challenges at the margins will become harder.
Jackson stands to benefit as well, in this case because of an extension he can sign after the season. Jackson’s last extension featured a declining salary that pays him $23.4 million in 2025-26, a mere pittance for a player of this caliber. That salary also makes it difficult for the Grizzlies to sign him to a market-value extension due to collective bargaining agreement rules limiting the size of his raise, but that concern goes away if Jackson either wins Defensive Player of the Year or is named to one of the three All-NBA teams.
In that case, he becomes supermax eligible and could make up to 35 percent of the cap on a five-year extension, entitling him to a mammoth extension worth a projected $345 million. (Note: Memphis could go out to five years on a supermax as long as it’s at least 30 percent of the cap, or a projected $296 million.) Jackson has to play 10 more games to qualify.
Evan Mobley drives to the basket against Jaren Jackson Jr. on Sunday night. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)
Mobley and Jackson figure to be the two most likely beneficiaries, but they aren’t the only ones. Two other players can reap substantial financial benefits if they move up.
The first is Cade Cunningham for the suddenly streaking Detroit Pistons, who started the year 11-17 but are 20-9 since. Think about that: 20-9! The Pistons! That’s as many wins as they had in four of the past five seasons! They have a better record (31-26) than both of last year’s Western Conference finalists! I can’t stop using exclamation points!
Anyway, I digress. Cunningham, obviously, has played a major part in that, including his 38-point eruption in the Pistons’ wild 148-143 win Sunday in Atlanta. Over his last dozen games, he has gone to another level as a distributor, averaging 9.9 assists with — notably — nearly three dimes for every miscue. But it’s not just the passing; Cunningham is shooting 52.5 percent on 2s in this stretch and has lifted his mark inside the arc above 50 percent for the season. It was a long ride getting here, but his efficiency is now at leading-man levels.
As with Mobley’s, Cunningham’s extension pays him 30 percent of the cap if he makes one of the three All-NBA teams. Even with his making his first All-Star team, that seemed relatively unlikely until the last couple of weeks. However, the Pistons’ ascension to the p-p-p-playoffs? (yes, really) and a winning record, if they maintain it, would make him a much more viable candidate on All-NBA ballots. He needs to play 13 more games to qualify.
Even making the third team would boost Cunningham’s 2025-26 salary to 30 percent of the cap. It would also potentially complicate Detroit’s cap-room scenarios for next summer, although one unexpected twist to their success — owing a lottery-protected first-round pick to Minnesota — will offset some of Cunningham’s dough on the salary sheet.
Wembanyama’s and Davis’ statuses also make for an interesting situation in Sacramento, on two levels. First, Dallas and San Antonio were in the thick of a West playoff race that also includes the Kings, and that matters because the Kings owe a top-12 protected first to Atlanta this year. Basically, if the Kings make the Play-In Tournament, Atlanta probably gets the pick. (There also is a delectable scenario where the Hawks enter the final week of the season locked into ninth in the East and tank games to ensure they finish with fewer wins than the Kings.)
The Spurs likely fading from that race — they were beaten badly by the lowly New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday and have been thrashed by 7.8 points per 100 possessions in the non-Wembanyama minutes this season — greases the way for the currently 10th-place Kings. Sacramento is two games behind Dallas and wins the tiebreaker, but even if the Kings can’t catch the Mavs, they just need to hold off a flagging Phoenix Suns team to make the Play-In.
The other angle here is that Domantas Sabonis is positioned for the Jimmy Butler Special: Making All-NBA despite not making the All-Star team — especially if Antetokounmpo doesn’t get to 65 games. If it happens, that would entitle Sabonis to a $1.3 million contract bonus. Unlike the other players, that doesn’t affect his salary for next season, although it does affect his cap number in 2025-26.
Finally, can we talk about the draft? The Spurs have the league’s 10th-worst record, but it’s going to be fairly easy for them to moonwalk past a couple of teams and significantly boost their lottery odds from here. Even if they don’t land top target Cooper Flagg, the Spurs should get another elite talent in a strong draft. Most likely, this isn’t quite “Finish 20-62, then add Tim Duncan to David Robinson” territory, but the Spurs still may have inadvertently stumbled into another big piece of their future.
CapGeekery: Exception Dilemmas
One fun leftover tidbit from the trade deadline involves trade exceptions; in particular, the choices teams make when they make the trade call with the league about how to utilize them. Ninety-nine percent of the time this “choice” is Captain Obvious territory and requires no explanation, but every so often, a team has a dilemma.
That was the case for Atlanta when it made the De’Andre Hunter trade with Cleveland, because the Hawks already had a pre-existing trade exception worth $25.3 million from the Dejounte Murray trade. They could have recycled it into a smaller, $21.7 million exception for Hunter’s contract, with a longer duration to use it (through Feb. 6 instead of July 6), by absorbing the incoming salaries of Caris LeVert and Georges Niang into the Murray exception.
Instead, the Hawks opted to keep the larger exception — a choice most teams probably would have made. League sources confirmed they also generated a $13.1 million exception for the difference between the Bogdan Bogdanović and Bones Hyland salaries, by taking Terance Mann into their nontaxpayer midlevel exception; while the NTMLE should be worth a bit more than that next season (an estimated $13.6 million), it does give the Hawks some added flexibility in the summer.
And that flexibility could matter. With the Hawks projected to be nearly $40 million below next year’s tax line but lacking significant cap room and having multiple holes to fill, Atlanta could easily use one or both exceptions to acquire players and still use part or all of its midlevel exception to sign a free agent.
Stat Geekery: A 50-loss Play-In team?
Something I’ve been tracking since preseason: Could we have our worst-ever Play-In team? In the four years since it has been implemented, the worst record belongs to the 34-48 San Antonio team in 2021-22.
However, it will take some work for the 10th-place finisher in the East to hit that mark. Through Sunday’s games, the Chicago Bulls had the 10th position and were 22-35, putting them on pace to finish 32-50. The two teams breathing down their necks, so to speak, are Brooklyn and Philadelphia; the Nets are tracking to 31-51, while the Sixers are on pace for 29-53.
Recent matters haven’t helped the projection. Despite a “race” for the spot, the Bulls have lost six straight, and the Sixers have dropped seven in a row; the Sixers may also shut down one or both of Joel Embiid and Paul George soon, both of whom have struggled physically. Brooklyn is openly tanking this season, having already traded Dennis Schröder and Dorian Finney-Smith for draft capital and bought out Ben Simmons, and yet may back into the 10th spot by accident. Fun times!
Billy Donovan’s Bulls are currently holding onto the 10th spot in the East. (David Banks / Imagn Images)
Prospect of the Week: Rasheer Fleming, 6-9 Jr. PF, St. Joseph’s
Twenty-nine NBA scouts and execs crowded into Philadelphia’s tiny Hagan Arena on Saturday to see St. Joseph’s play a matinee against an overmatched Richmond team and get eyes on Fleming. Why this game, in particular? Because the entire league was making its way to New York for three other knockout scouting games over the weekend, and this was the aperitif.
Fleming made the most of his showcase, with 23 points and six rebounds on 9-of-13 shooting as the Hawks glided past Richmond 78-62. In particular, he showcased his increasing confidence from the 3-point line by making four of his eight attempts. Fleming has made 13 of his last 23 attempts from 3 over his past four games, but the attempts stand out as much as the makes: The eight launches he’s had in each of the past two games are career highs.
Fleming is shooting a sizzling 43.6 percent from 3 on the season, but that probably overstates things — he’s only at 69.1 percent from the line, for instance, and his pregame shooting betrays some inconsistency with his stroke. Fleming has an interesting release — a true “jump” shot from 3 that he bounds into very quickly, usually landing a foot or so forward from his takeoff point. He’s a good leaper and can easily get his shot away over a closeout, something he showed on multiple occasions in this game.
But the 3-point shooting is notable because of Fleming’s other attributes. He’s a plus run-jump athlete who should test well at the NBA Draft Combine and leads the Atlantic 10 in defensive rebound rate. He’s also posted a respectable 4.9 percent block rate while toggling between power forward and center in St. Joe’s system. Oddly, the Hawks had him playing an extremely deep drop in his minutes at center (I’m talking coal-mine deep), even though it seems he could be more switchable on the perimeter.
While the combo of athleticism and shooting will tempt teams in the back half of the first round, the limits on Fleming’s stock are tied to his age and ball skills. He’s not going to create a play with the ball in his hands and has a limited post-up arsenal, and as an upperclassman in a mid-major league, he should be dominating if he’s an NBA player.
Overall, however, the game against Richmond probably helped cement his case as a player of interest in the back half of the first round on draft night. His chances to move up beyond that may be limited, however, given his lack of on-ball juice and relatively few showcase games the rest of the way. (St. Joe’s seems unlikely to make the NCAA tournament.)
(Top photo of Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
