NBA Awards Watch: Should Kenny Atkinson or J.B. Bickerstaff be Coach of the Year?

We’re doing NBA Awards Watch every Thursday until the end of the regular season. Each week we’ll emphasize a new award. This week, we’ve got Coach of the Year, which often comes down to whether a candidate surprised us with how well his team did. But should it? Should it be about that rather than overall excellent coaching? And how do we judge which surprise coaching job is better than the other surprise coaching job? This award has a lot to consider, and this season is the perfect example of trying to figure out how to debate and decide it.

For the criteria I use for each award, check out this Awards Watch post. It explains how I, and a lot of the voting history, look at the six individual awards. We’ll go heavy on Coach of the Year here, and give quick-hitter thoughts for all other awards. All betting odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

Coach of the Year

We have never had someone win Coach of the Year in back-to-back seasons. The closest we came was Don Nelson winning the award in 1983 and 1985. Gregg Popovich won it in 2012 and 2014. Other than that, nobody has come close to winning it in consecutive years. Phil Jackson won the award in 1996 when the Chicago Bulls had the greatest season ever with 72 wins and the championship. The next year, Pat Riley won his third COY award by leading the Miami Heat to a 61-21 record. He beat out Dave Cowens, who led the Charlotte Hornets to a 54-28 record. Jackson’s Bulls went 69-13, tying for the second-most wins ever in a season. Jackson didn’t get a single vote for the award in 1997. That’s ridiculous!

Let’s put up our Brian Windhorst pointer fingers and wonder, “Now why is that?” Part of me believes the award isn’t really about coaching. It’s actually about us — both the public and the voting panel.

So often, the winner of the award is someone who exceeded preseason expectations. Sometimes those expectations were fair and the coach led his team to greater success. Sometimes, the expectations were based on poor assumptions, but rewarded the surprise. After all, how could we have been so wrong? It must be the coach and the team that magically got better than expected!

The award becomes one big “I Can’t Believe It’s Not Butter” commercial. Mark Daigneault won Coach of the Year last season because what we thought was a pretty good Oklahoma City Thunder team was the best team in the vaunted West. You surprised us and surpassed our decently high expectations for you! So you win! The Thunder are even better this season and have been the most dominant team in league history. They have the highest margin of victory we’ve ever seen. Daigneault is fifth in betting odds at +8000. Why? Because he’s not a surprise.

I’m not even sure this is a bad way of looking at it. Maybe that truly is the best coaching job, when you surprise everybody and exceed expectations in such a dramatic way. But then you start trying to decipher if the biggest surprise should constitute the biggest coaching award. Let’s get into this year’s race.

Two Honorable Mentions: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies | Daigneault

3. JJ Redick, Los Angeles Lakers (Last week: Not ranked)

Speaking of surprises, nobody had Redick’s Lakers being this good. Nobody had them trading for Luka Dončić before the season either, so this team is full of surprises. The Lakers are second in the West right now, and their midseason turnaround has been remarkable. And considering all that’s happened, I’m not sure it should have been expected in the slightest. Trading Anthony Davis for Dončić isn’t a downgrade, but it makes learning things on the fly difficult. They had help by getting the All-Star break shortly after the trade, but that’s not a lot of time to figure out how to make this work while still bringing the star you acquired back from a calf injury that cost him over a month.

The Lakers were 12-11 on Dec. 6 with the No. 12 offense and No. 26 defense. A different way of putting that was only the Utah Jazz, Bulls, New Orleans Pelicans and Washington Wizards were worse at defending. Since then, the Lakers have gone 27-10 (fourth-best record), their offense is 10th and their defense is second in the league. Only OKC has been better at defending during that stretch. Since the Dončić trade, the Lakers are 12-2 with the best defense in basketball. Some of that is personnel, but a lot of that is coaching.

2. Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 1)

1. J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons (Last week: 2)

I know, I know. But hear me out for a minute. The Cavs have the best record in the NBA. The betting odds have Atkinson running away with this award. He’s -1000, with Bickerstaff coming in at +700. The Cavs are on their third different winning streak of at least 12 victories. No other team in NBA history has ever done that. The 1999-2000 Lakers had three different 11-game win streaks. The 1980-81 Philadelphia 76ers and 2011-12 San Antonio Spurs both had three different 10-game win streaks. Three different streaks of at least 12 wins hadn’t happened until last night. And who knows where this one goes? There are so many reasons Atkinson should win this award. 

He definitely surprised us. So many criticized the firing of Bickerstaff in Cleveland because he was scapegoated. The combination of Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell felt too redundant. Same with the combination of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. We spent all summer saying the Cavs needed to break up both pairings if they wanted a chance of taking down Boston, or even making it to the conference finals to lose to the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have already clinched a playoff berth. They’ve already surpassed their preseason over/under total.

However, is it a bigger surprise than what Bickerstaff has done with the Pistons? This was one of the worst teams in NBA history a year ago. They had the longest losing streak in NBA history. Monty Williams looked like he was actively trying to get fired by playing Isaiah Livers so much that they had to trade him to get him out of the rotation, and playing Killian Hayes so much that the team had to cut him from the roster. The team added Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Simone Fontecchio, and Ron Holland III in the offseason. Did you see those additions leading to a 21-win improvement with 19 games left to play? If you did, please email me the Powerball numbers for next week.

I think it’s fair to wonder if turning a good but malfunctioning roster from the No. 4 seed to the No. 1 seed in the East is more impressive and a bigger surprise than turning one of the worst teams in NBA history into a top-six team in the East. I’d lean toward Bickerstaff right now, but I’m torn on it.

Most Valuable Player

5 Honorable Mentions: Steph Curry, Golden State Warriors | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets

5. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (Last week: 5)

Quick-hitter: The consistency of this season, plus the success of the Celtics, keeps Tatum in the mix here for now. But you have to be honest about the possibility of Curry, James or Brunson finding their way onto this ballot. That’s not a knock on Tatum either, and I know Boston pushes this narrative that he’s not respected. I don’t know how that’s possible for a four-time All-NBA selection. There are a lot of moving parts and deserving consideration for top players peaking toward the end of the season.

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (Last week: 3)

Quick-hitter: Normally, you worry about the Bucks not being able to defend if Giannis isn’t on the court. This season, the Bucks can’t score when he’s on the bench. And while their offense is good with Giannis and Damian Lillard on the floor together, they actually score more efficiently when it’s just Giannis out there. He’s become so careful and intentional in how he attacks offensively that he’s turned into the modern-day Shaquille O’Neal in the paint.

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3. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 4)

Quick-hitter: Maybe this ends up looking like the year Paul George finished third in MVP voting because we knew it was just a two-man race between Giannis and James Harden. However, it’s time Mitchell got more praise for the season he’s having. We know this is a two-horse race. So maybe third place in MVP ends up being its own scramble. Mitchell has been about as valuable and self-sacrificing as you could hope a star to be when they’re trying to further the new team culture. That matters here.

2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (Last week: 2)

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (Last week: 1)

Quick-hitter: We’ve talked before about the historic seasons both of these candidates are having. And the individual aspects of each player and the games they have are truly fascinating when it comes to what we’re watching and what you want to value in this award race. Ultimately, it might just come down to team success, and SGA has a big advantage there for two reasons. 1) His team is just a lot better top-to-bottom. 2) The Thunder are light-years ahead of Denver in the standings. Jokić has been unreal, but making up 11 games in the standings is asking a lot when deciphering their values for this award. The Thunder have been the most dominant team ever and might set the record for most double-digit wins in a season. They’re 10 off the record (50) with 20 games to play. That dominance pretty much only happens when SGA is on the court.

Defensive Player of the Year

Two Honorable Mentions: Lu Dort, Oklahoma City Thunder | Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

3. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies (Last week: 2)

Jackson recently suffered a Grade 2 ankle sprain, and it has a chance of costing him eligibility for the award. Because of the 65-game rule and the stipulation that you have to hit 20 minutes in these games, Jackson’s 59 games are really like 56. According to injury expert Jeff Stotts, the average time missed with an injury like this is roughly three weeks. The Grizzlies said he’s on a week-to-week basis. If he misses three weeks, he’ll be in the range of needing to play in nine of the final 11 games of the season when he’s back.

2. Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks (Last week: 3)

Did you see the way the Hawks stole the game from the Grizzlies on Monday? After making a big fourth-quarter comeback to tie the game, the Hawks needed to get a final stop to hope to force overtime. For some reason, Desmond Bane decided trying to score on Daniels at the end of the game was a good idea. So he went at him, and instead of the Hawks hoping for overtime, this happened.

Daniels is so good at getting steals or deflections that I’m shocked when teams go at him on last-second possessions. Just have your second-best player try to score and win the game! At least you’re more likely to get a shot off. I’ve long thought the deflection stat is extremely overrated. It doesn’t mean your team got a stop. You just momentarily disrupted the offensive possession for your opponent. It doesn’t tell a complete story. I’m starting to think Daniels and his deflections are the exception. What keeps Daniels from being the frontrunner is that the Hawks’ defense is terrible, though it’s a lot better when he’s off the floor. That’s probably a statistical anomaly because of whom he’s playing alongside. But it’s not even a Trae Young thing. It’s just a Hawks thing.

1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 1)

The Jackson injury made Mobley a significant betting favorite. He’s currently -200, with Daniels coming in second at +400. As I’ve mentioned here before, I had Mobley right in lockstep with Victor Wembanyama before the Spurs phenom went down with deep vein thrombosis in his shoulder, which cost him the rest of this season and award eligibility. With Wemby out of the picture, Mobley should be the winner. The Cavs have thrived off his defensive presence.

Rookie of the Year

Two Honorable Mentions: Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks | Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat

3. Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies (Last week: Honorable mention)

Quick-hitter: I’m rewarding Edey’s consistency over a recency bias for Ware. That’s not to say Ware isn’t worthy of getting into the mix for the balloting. He’s been really good, but it took him a bit longer to start finding success on the court for Miami. Edey was good right away, and even though he battled some injuries and bruises, he’s still pretty important for the Memphis rotations.

2. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs (Last week: 2)

Quick-hitter: Castle is the current betting favorite at -225, and he’s making a big push lately with some great games. With Wemby out of the mix, there’s opportunity to be more of a scorer. Rookie of the Year voters do love scoring from that position, but this season’s crop doesn’t exactly have much consistent scoring. At least not since Jared McCain went down. Castle will probably win this award off name recognition and a late push, but he’s not my current pick.

1. Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies (Last week: 1)

Quick-hitter: Once McCain got hurt, Wells immediately took the title of the best rookie from start of the season through the current point. I know there isn’t anything sexy about what he’s doing. He’s just been an extremely solid player with good numbers and a positive impact. He’s really had one bad shooting month, and everything else has been good across the board. If we’re comparing him and Castle, the Spurs rookie couldn’t make a shot consistently until January. And when things are pretty even, team success will factor in for me. Wells has started almost all season for a really good Memphis team.

Sixth Man of the Year

Two Honorable Mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | De’Andre Hunter, Cleveland Cavaliers

3. Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: Honorable mention)

Quick-hitter: I moved Jerome over Hunter because I’m giving Jerome the great team boost here. Now, Hunter is on this team too, but it’s only been for like a month. He’s been killer in that month, just like he was in Atlanta. Amazingly, the Cavs have been better with Jerome on the court this season than when he’s on the bench. That’s a big part of Cleveland’s success. They don’t lose anything when their All-Star guards leave the floor, and he can play with either of them for extended minutes.

Also, here’s a weird thing: The Cleveland broadcast recently has said the award should go to Hunter without question. He’s been there for a month, but they’re co-opting his time on the Hawks? We even heard Mitchell briefly name him after the win Wednesday night, but you could see him quickly drop Jerome’s name in there too as a possibility. This feels like a directive from high up in the organization to get Hunter the award.

2. Malik Beasley, Detroit Pistons (Last week: 2)

1. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics (Last week: 1)

Quick-hitter: I’ve been thinking about just how impactful and integral Beasley has been to the Pistons’ success. He shoots 43 percent from 3 in the clutch and is having a historic season that puts him in the same class as what Curry and Klay Thompson have done. The Pistons are a winning team with him and a slightly losing team without him. I think that all matters, and his performance might mean more to Detroit than Pritchard’s does for Boston. I was prepared to write a whole argument about it this week. Then Pritchard scored 43 points and hit 10 3-pointers off the bench against Portland Wednesday night. It’s Pritchard’s for at least another week.

Most Improved Player

Two Honorable Mentions: Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets | Pritchard

3. Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks (Last week: 2)

Quick-hitter: I struggle with whether Daniels should be the leader for this award. I think there should be a bigger emphasis on players going from good-to-great, but Daniels went from mostly an afterthought you hope could be healthy to a valuable role player who might win DPOY. He’s improved his shot, and his defense has gone from disruptive to otherworldly most nights.

2. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (Last week: 3)

Quick-hitter: The argument against Cunningham mostly centers around two things. His numbers aren’t that different when you adjust for pace. His percentages and efficiency are pretty much the same as last season. And even when we see a big jump in the rebounding and assist numbers, it is accompanied by a big jump in turnovers. However, to be doing this on a team that is winning feels like improvement. Maybe players should be awarded more for going from an atrocious team to maintaining these numbers on a playoff team?

1. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers (Last week: 1)

Quick-hitter: I still feel like Mobley is the most improved guy, even though all the betting odds have Cunningham as the most likely to win it. There’s a very good debate to be had between Cunningham and Mobley. Does it make it even more fun that they were 1-2 in the 2021 NBA Draft? Is that something just nerds like me enjoy mentioning? Please don’t answer that.

(Top photo of J.B. Bickerstaff: Luke Hales / Getty Images) 



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