NFL Week 13 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Aidan O'Connell set to start against Chiefs on Friday

Welcome to the Week 13 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings referenced in this article are current as of Nov. 29. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

The latest NFL news and headlines

Last updated: 11:40 a.m., Nov. 29

Injury news | Weather report
Featured games | Best bets
Survivor Pools | Fantasy football player rankings

Injury news

Updated through 11:40 a.m. ET, Nov. 29

Friday

Zamir White, RB, Raiders (Quadriceps) — Out
Alexander Mattison, RB, Raiders (ankle) — Questionable
White and Mattison both missed Week 12, and White is already ruled out for Week 13 while Mattison is questionable. In Week 11, each of them had five carries, and while Mattison had more yards (19) than White (nine), the numbers don’t bode well for future fantasy production. Next up on the depth chart are Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick. Abdullah had eight carries to McCormick’s five, but McCormick had 6.6 yards per carry to Abdullah’s 2.5. However, Abdullah was more involved in the passing game and ended up with 65 net yards and a receiving touchdown.

Aidan O’Connell, QB, Raiders (thumb) — Expected to play
Head coach Antonio Pierce said O’Connell will start in Week 13, according to Levi Edwards of the Raiders’ official site. After Gardner Minshew’s season-ending injury, Desmond Ridder is O’Connell’s backup. I’d love to see Ridder on the field Friday. But my dad is a Purdue alum, so I’m partial to O’Connell (though it’s difficult, given his 5.5 PPR point per game average), and I hope he can at least attempt to give the Chiefs some trouble and make this a game worth watching.

Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders (hip) — Expected to play
Tucker was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a hip injury but is expected to play. Week 12 was one of Tucker’s better performances, as he finished with 82 yards receiving and 15.2 PPR points. But Jakobi Meyers is the more reliable Raiders receiver, and if Tucker misses time, Meyers will have more opportunities. Meyers has only scored fewer than 10 PPR points on four occasions this year. Last week, he was targeted 15 times and ended with 121 yards and 22.1 PPR points.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (ankle) — Expected to play
Pacheco was close to playing in Week 12 but has a better chance to play in Week 13. If he doesn’t, Kareem Hunt will again lead the backfield with a season average of 3.7 yards per rush.

Spencer Shrader, K, Chiefs (hamstring) — Out
Shrader is out in Week 13 with a hamstring injury. Harrison Butker is on IR, so the Chiefs signed Matthew Wright to start in Week 13.

Sunday 1 p.m.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (shoulder) — Questionable
Lawrence was a limited participant in practice on Thursday, but according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, head coach Doug Pederson told reporters Lawrence “had a good week.” When asked if Lawrence would play Sunday, Pederson said, “I would say as of right now, yes, he will play.” Fantasy managers with any stake in the Jags are desperate for Lawrence’s return. With him in, TE Evan Engram and WR Brian Thomas Jr. become fantasy-relevant again.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Commanders (ankle) — Questionable
Austin Ekeler, RB, Commanders (concussion) — Questionable
If Washington is without Robinson Jr. and Ekeler in Week 13, the offense could be in some trouble. Jeremy McNichols has been plucked off waiver wires all week in case Robinson and Ekeler are ruled out. Lesser known Chris Rodriguez would also factor into the running game if the Commanders’ starting tandem can’t play.

Noah Brown, WR, Commanders (knee) — Questionable
Brown has emerged as one of Jayden Daniels’ favorite targets after a 71-receiving yard performance in Week 12 but he is questionable heading into Week 13. Without Brown, Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz are the only startable pass catchers in Washington. On the season, McLaurin has had 74 targets, Ertz 69 and Brown 52. Olamide Zaccheaus is next on the list (other than Ekeler) with 35, but he’s surpassed 10 PPR points once this season and had zero points in two games and actually produced negative points in one.

Breece Hall, RB, Jets (knee) — Questionable
Breece Hall was a limited participant during Thursday’s practice. Braelon Allen becomes an immediate add-and-play if Hall sits. Allen had a great Week 2 with 4.7 yards per carry and 19.6 PPR points. But he is averaging 3.7 yards per rush on the year and 5.36 PPR points.

Drake London, WR, Falcons (hip) — Questionable
Drake London is questionable heading into Week 15. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III may see more targets if he sits. McCloud had six receptions on six targets and 46 yards receiving in Week 11. Mooney has averaged 13.55 PPR points this season, and his ceiling is right at the 31.5 points he scored in Week 5.

Younghoe Koo, K, Falcons (hip) — Questionable
Koo was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice, according to Daniel Flick of SI.com.

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts (foot) — Questionable
Josh Downs, WR, Colts (shoulder) — Questionable
Neither Downs nor Pierce practiced Thursday. If they cannot play, Adonai Mitchell becomes fantasy-relevant again as a down-the-field threat, and Michael Pittman Jr. is sure to get the most wide receiver looks for the Colts.

DeMario Douglas, WR, Patriots (ankle) — Questionable
Douglas was limited at practice on Wednesday. Averaging 8.56 PPR points per game, Douglas is a flex option in deeper leagues at best. Keyshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne could see more work with Douglas out.

Austin Seibert, K, Commanders (hip) — Injured reserve
Seibert has been placed on IR after missing kicks following his return from injury. When Seibert was out, Zane Gonzalez kicked for the Commanders, going 3-for-3 on field goals and 4-for-4 on extra points. He is still on the practice squad and available for elevation.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Chargers (knee) — Doubtful
Dobbins sprained his MCL and is expected to miss the Chargers’ matchup against the Falcons. With him out, grab Gus Edwards and think about flexing him. He didn’t do too well after Dobbins left the game in Week 12, but he will surely lead LA’s backfield in Dobbins’ absence.

Will Dissly, TE, Chargers (knee) — Questionable
Dissly is questionable heading into Week 13. If he sits, Tucker Fisk is next up on the depth chart. Dissly is averaging 7.9 PPR points on the season and had 18 in Week 11. In Weeks 11 and 12, he had 80 yards and 47 yards receiving, respectively.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans (concussion) — Questionable
Spears practiced fully on Thursday but remains questionable. Tony Pollard is the RB1 in Tennessee. In Spears’ Week 12 absence, Pollard had 119 yards on 24 carries, a touchdown and finished with 21.9 PPR points.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans (ankle) — Expected to play
Ridley didn’t practice on Wednesday but is expected to play and had a solid Week 12 with 93 yards receiving. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is still an intriguing flex play. NWI has scored over 10 PPR points in four of his last five games and had 117 yards receiving in Week 11. Often his production comes from limited targets and receptions, so beware.

DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks (shoulder) — Questionable
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks (knee) — Questionable
Neither Metcalf nor Lockett practiced Thursday. If either of them sits, Jaxon Smith-Njigba would see more targets and could be a great flex option in Week 13.

Sunday 4 p.m.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (hamstring) — Questionable
Smith missed Week 12 with a hamstring injury and remains questionable for Week 13. Without Smith on the field, A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert were the only pass catchers with more than one target. Saquon Barkley also caught four passes for 47 receiving yards.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Panthers (neck) — Questionable
Head coach Dave Canales told reporters that Sanders is not expected to play on Sunday, meaning Tommy Tremble will likely get the start. Tremble has not exceeded 5.9 PPR points in any game this season.

Sunday Night Football

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers (shoulder) — Questionable
Purdy was limited in practice on Thursday, and if he can’t play, Brandon Allen will likely get another start. Managers of Niners receivers would be so incredibly thankful if Purdy returns for Week 13.

Keon Coleman, WR, Bills (wrist) — Questionable
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills (knee) — Out
Coleman was limited at practice with a wrist injury, while Kincaid has been ruled out. Coleman hasn’t played since Week 9. Now, Coleman will share targets with Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir. With Kincaid out, Dawson Knox is a quality backup who should demand streaming consideration for this week.

Monday Night Football

Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns (concussion) — Questionable
Tillman was diagnosed with a concussion during Thursday Night Football in Week 12, but Jerry Jeudy has been the surging Browns receiver lately. If Tillman sits, Jeudy is an even better flex option.

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos (back) — Questionable
Nix was limited in practice due to a back injury. Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson are the backups in Denver. If Nix sits, WRs Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele are less attractive fantasy plays in Week 13.

Weather report

Outdoor games only

As the weather grows colder, four matchups, including 49ers-Bills, Dolphins–Packers, Raiders-Chiefs and Steelers–Bengals, will be played in temperatures below 35 degrees. In Jake Ciely’s fantasy football strategy guide to weather, he notes that the passing game is impacted when temperatures drop below 35 degrees, which is illustrated in the table below.

According to Rotowire’s aggregated NFL-related forecasts, there is a 75 percent chance of snow with an expected temperature of 29 degrees when the Bills welcome the 49ers to Buffalo.

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

Snow and precipitation primarily affect the passing game. Typically, running backs are used more in difficult weather conditions, so their value is less impacted. Christian McCaffrey and James Cook should typically produce, and maybe Ray Davis even gets some carries if the game scripts lean run.

Josh Allen has played in three games in the snow, in 2020 and 2021. In those games, he averaged a completion percentage of 51.8 percent, compared to a career 63.7 percent. While that’s dismal, he also still threw for an average of 256.33 yards per game. With Dalton Kincaid out, Dawson Knox and Cook out of the backfield could see a lot of short-yardage work. I may trust Khalil Shakir more than Amari Cooper this week because of Shakir’s rapport with Allen and consistent fantasy production.

Brock Purdy hasn’t played in the snow in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers last snowy game was in Jan. 2022, in a divisional game against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. They won 13-10, and seven of their points came off a blocked punt that went for a touchdown. Former 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo was 11-for-19 and threw for 131 yards and an interception. The team rushed for 106 total yards, and Kittle led the Niners in receiving with four receptions and 63 yards. A typical snow game.

Featured games

Game-specific previews and live updates are available on the day of the game.

• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, Mo.
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• TV: Prime Video
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Kansas City Chiefs are favored by two scores over the Las Vegas Raiders — what a surprise. After Gardner Minshew II broke his collarbone in Week 12, the Raiders are turning back to Aidan O’Connell; Desmond Ridder will back him up. Las Vegas will find it hard to beat the Chiefs, who may get Isiah Pacheco back this week. Alexander Mattison (questionable) and Zamir White (out) did not play in Week 12, and the Raiders leaned on Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick in their absence, leading to 69 total yards on the ground. Underrated WR Jacobi Meyers finished with 121 yards. Brock Bowers had a down week but is a bright spot on this team and will “get his” in most games.

Pacheco’s return could help a Chiefs offense that hasn’t looked as dynamic this year despite securing 10 wins. Mahomes is coming off a one-score win against the lowly Carolina Panthers and his best fantasy game of the season, finishing with 28.8 fantasy points and a passer rating of 120.2. TE Travis Kelce led receivers with eight targets; DeAndre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy each had six. Kansas City’s defense is the difference maker, ranking fourth in yards per game allowed and third in yards per rush allowed.

Read the full preview.

Sunday afternoon

Philadelphia Eagles (9-2) vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium — Baltimore, Md.
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

After Saquon Barkley’s 302 net yards and Hurts’ efficient performance against the Rams in Week 12, Philly still doesn’t get the odds against the Ravens in Baltimore. Led by MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, the Ravens can beat anyone, even the soaring Eagles. Derrick Henry’s impact on Baltimore’s dominant season cannot be overstated. He’s averaging 20 PPR points per game and just had a 140-yard rushing performance on Monday Night Football, breaking one tackle after another. He faces eight men in the box at the second-highest rate in the NFL (33.9 percent) and still averages 3.55 yards after contact (sixth in the league). Zay Flowers (Ciely’s WR23), Mark Andrews (TE19) and Rashod Bateman (WR54) round out the Ravens offense and give Jackson capable targets.

The Ravens allow the fewest yards per rush (3.5), and even Barkley may find less room to run in this game. The Eagles have a great one-two punch with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (who was inactive in Week 12), and TE Dallas Goedert is great for the short game. With much focus on Barkley this season, Hurts’ seventh-ranked passer rating (102.3) and sixth-ranked completion percentage (69.1 percent) have gone under the radar. Brown has 727 receiving yards on the season and averages 16.96 PPR points per game.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

San Francisco 49ers (5-6) vs. Buffalo Bills (9-2)

• Venue: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, N.Y.
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Niners have been disappointing this year and sit at the bottom of the NFC West. Still in playoff contention, they hope to have Brock Purdy back in Week 13. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t looked the same since his return from injury, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and under 50 rushing yards per game. However, the Bills D gives up 4.9 yards per carry (30th in the NFL), giving fantasy managers who have McCaffrey something to be thankful for this week. Interestingly in the receiving corps, Deebo Samuel is averaging only 10.5 PPR points per game, while breakout wideout Jauan Jennings is averaging 14.9.

Josh Allen is on a tear this season, averaging 231.18 passing yards and 28.7 rushing yards per game and throwing for 18 TDs while rushing for five. He has only five interceptions with a passer rating of 98.2 and is fantasy’s QB5 with 20.3 PPR points per game. Now Allen has Amari Cooper alongside Khalil Shakir as his top two receivers. Shakir has only scored less than 10 PPR points once in Week 6; he offers a great floor and a ceiling of about 20 points.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Monday night

Cleveland Browns (3-8) vs. Denver Broncos (7-5)

• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High — Denver, Colo.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

On the shoulders of Bo Nix’s improved play and a tough defense, the Broncos are favored over the Cleveland Browns. I was big on Nix entering the season. His college career contained few errors, and I thought he’d fit into Sean Payton’s system well. But the first few weeks of his play had me cowering in a corner. But persistence has brought vengeance! Nix has thrown zero interceptions in the past three weeks while scoring eight touchdowns. From Weeks 10-12, his passer rating is 118.6, and he has a 71.4 percent completion rate. Courtland Sutton has been buoyed because of it. During that span, he averaged 81.67 receiving yards per game on nine targets. The Broncos running game is an entirely different story. Payton seems to be using the hot-hand approach to Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime, making none of them viable fantasy plays.

The Browns have some fight in them with Jameis Winston under center. They aren’t winning games, but they’ve become more fun to watch, and Jerry Jeudy has become flex-relevant in deep leagues. Jeudy has scored 12 or more PPR points since Week 8, and in Week 11, he had 26.2. Denver has a stout pass defense, allowing only 199.8 passing yards per game (ninth in the NFL), so while I think Jeudy deserves flex consideration, temper expectations.

Read the full preview (coming Monday).

Week 13 best bets

Austin Mock scours his weekly projections to spot the top values on the board.

New Orleans Saints +3 (-115) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Get Ciely’s full Week 13 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.