Canucks 2024-25 breakout tiers: Which players are most likely to take a step?

There are many different ways for players to have a breakout season.

When we talk about breakout performances in professional hockey, we’re usually focused on a relatively narrow template: the popular notion of a “young player realizes potential and takes massive leap forward” type breakout.

To focus solely on this sort of breakout, however, ignores the complex reality that there are other more seemingly pedestrian ways for a pro player to put together the sort of season that alters the trajectory of their career, and in the process, the fortunes of their team.

Last season Vancouver Canucks captain Quinn Hughes put together a classic example of a breakout campaign when he went nuclear as a goal scoring threat, and transformed from a defender widely rated as being among the best young blueliners on the planet, into a Norris Trophy winner widely viewed as the closest challenger to the belt holder for the best defenseman on the planet, Cale Makar.

Phil Di Giuseppe, however, also put together a breakout campaign when he remained on Vancouver’s NHL roster for an entire season — the first time he’d done so in his career, with the exception of the taxi squad 2021 season — and appeared in a career-high 51 NHL games in a season. For a player who had previously spent their career at the fringes of NHL lineups like Di Giuseppe, seizing an opportunity and establishing yourself as an everyday NHL fixture is also a breakout performance. One that mattered for a Canucks team that relied heavily on Di Giuseppe on the penalty kill and in a top-six role early in the season, and leaned on his speed — and new dad strength — down the lineup come playoff time.

As much as the club’s chances of repeating as Pacific Division champions and emerging in the spring as a genuine playoff contender will hinge on factors like the incoming unrestricted free agent winger, player health, chemistry and good old fashioned puck luck, breakout performances will define this upcoming Canucks season. That’s true for the established superstars, and for the striver-class players competing for spots on the back-end of the lineup during preseason at the moment.

In considering which Canucks players could break out this upcoming season, and how likely it is to occur, we thought we’d profile what a further “breakout” would look like for various Canucks players, evaluate what it would take, what it could mean to the club and how likely it is to occur this upcoming season.

So which Canucks players are most likely to break out this season?

From Norris Trophy winner to being widely recognized as the best defender on the planet…

Quinn Hughes has already broken out on multiple occasions. He first emerged as a star defender in his rookie season. Last season he emerged as a superstar-level driver and captain of a division-winning team. There’s still another apex looming for Hughes to hit, however, and significant opportunity ahead of him this upcoming season…

Quinn Hughes

Driven in part by the significant spike in his goal scoring production and in part by the attention demanded by Vancouver’s team success last season, Hughes fundamentally altered the perception around him with his superb showing during the 2023-24 campaign.

With the captain’s “C” on his chest, Hughes managed one of the most productive offensive seasons we’ve seen from any NHL blueliner over the past 10 years. His two-way game was as dominant as it’s ever been, boosted by his successful partnership with Filip Hronek. He opened the season in Tier 3B, and ended up winning the Norris Trophy going away.

There is no popular debate now about Hughes’ perch in a nearly peerless tier of NHL defender. Aside from Makar.

Here’s where this gets interesting. Makar deserves to hold the best defender in the world belt by virtue of his unassailable resume. He beat out Hughes for the Calder Trophy during their shared rookie campaign in 2019-20. He won a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe trophy during the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs. He’s over a point-per-game player since entering the league, where Hughes has produced .91 points per game clip.

And of course Makar has certain physical advantages, and as a result is capable of things Hughes simply isn’t athletically speaking. He’s larger and more physically assertive in the defensive zone. He is the single most talented finisher patrolling the back-end in the league.

Still, Hughes has some edges himself. He’s been the more durable player over the course of their respective careers. He’s narrowed the gap between the two from a goal scoring perspective. Where Makar’s two-way form fell off somewhat last year, a season in which he seemed to be more dependent on Nathan MacKinnon to drive play than he previously has been, Hughes’ ability to control games spiked.

There is a narrow path now for Hughes to elevate into the best-defender-on-the-planet conversation — a conversation that is currently a short one and is always decided in Makar’s favou — this upcoming season. And the key to what comes next for Hughes is to be at his best when the chips are down on the biggest stages that the NHL has to offer.

Two major opportunities for this loom over the course of this upcoming season. First off, the Four Nations tournament in February will pit the best NHL talent that Canada has to offer against the best NHLers representing Sweden, Finland and the United States. If Hughes is the standout blue-line performer for Team USA at that tournament, and can help lead Team U.S.A. past Team Canada in best-on-best international competition, that could change the equation from a popular perception standpoint.

Then we get to the Stanley Cup playoffs. In the playoffs last season, Hughes’ performance was solid but unspectacular by his lofty standards. He wasn’t used in matchup minutes, didn’t score a goal and recorded 10 points in 13 games played. If Hughes is going to elevate into the conversation alongside Makar, putting together some signature performances in the biggest games of the season is going to be a necessary next step.

For Hughes, a breakout 2024-25 campaign isn’t so much about repeating last season’s 17-goal, 90-plus point totals. It’s about continuing to dominate while leading a successful team, and being a superstar-level presence on some of the biggest stages the sport has to offer.

Likelihood: 4/10

From 100-point top-line centre to bona fide superstar

It’s exceptionally rare for a player to suddenly become a 100-point producer in their late 20s and early 30s. It’s rarer still for a winger to become a productive centre in their late 20s, and then add a shutdown element to their game in their 30s. J.T. Miller, however, has become one such outlier. As impressive as what Miller has accomplished is, sustaining the new level he hit last season would elevate him still further in the public’s perception of his game.

J.T. Miller

J.T. Miller broke the 100-point barrier for the first time in his career last season. It was an impressive campaign and a meaningful milestone for the player, who came agonizingly close during the 2021-22 season, finishing with 99 total points.

More than the production, however, what was so impressive about Miller’s season last year was the defensive side of his game. Never previously a consistent play driver at centre (the way he was on the wing), Miller managed stupendous two-way results throughout last season. By the playoffs, he was in a matchup role battling Connor McDavid, and holding his own (and then some, on occasion).

Miller’s offensive talent, his mastery on the power play, that stuff is beyond question. Even if there’s significant regression risk in his profile — his personal shooting percentage last year hit a career high 19.1 percent, while his on-ice shooting percentage was nearly 13 percent — we’ve seen Miller battle through seasons with brutal puck luck and still end up in the high-70s or low-80s in terms of total point production over 82 games.

The defensive side of his game, however, really was new last season. Or at least, it’s been new since the club hired Rick Tocchet.

Our sample now isn’t just 82 games, really, of Miller being an exceptional two-way centre. It’s more like 120-130 games including the tail end of the 2022-23 campaign and the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs.

If Miller can maintain the shutdown ability he tapped into last season again while producing at a roughly point-per-game clip, there will be no doubters left. He’ll have cemented himself as a bona fide superstar and one of the 10 best centremen in hockey.

Likelihood: 6/10

From impressive top-six winger to a 30-goal guy

Top Canucks free agent acquisition Jake DeBrusk has been an excellent top-six winger and a big game player throughout his NHL career. Can he level up his point production with the opportunity on offer in Vancouver this season?

Jake DeBrusk

Jake DeBrusk has spent his career with a loaded Boston Bruins team playing as a bona fide top-six winger. He’s battled through some inconsistency earlier on in his career, and some of the streakiness that is inevitable for top-six wingers year-to-year, but for the most part, DeBrusk arrived in the NHL ahead of schedule, was almost immediately a 20-25 goal threat and 40-50 point guy and has performed at that level relatively consistently since 2017.

There’s context to DeBrusk’s second-line level production. The Bruins are notorious for rolling four lines, and limiting the regular season minutes of their top-six forward group, a trend that was especially prominent in the later years of the Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci era when DeBrusk was cutting his teeth in the NHL. DeBrusk also hasn’t tended to be a power-play one fixture. He’s never logged more than 200 minutes in a season on the power play when, for context, Miller has never logged fewer than 250 minutes since he arrived in Vancouver.

Could DeBrusk hit a new level as an offensive player on Elias Pettersson’s wing now that he’s arrived on Canada’s West Coast? It’s possible, and the opportunity will surely be there, but if it’s going to happen, DeBrusk will need more than simply chemistry with his new teammates. He’ll likely need to hold down a spot on the first power-play unit throughout next season, which is a tall order given some of the club’s other internal options — including right-handed finishers like Daniel Sprong and Jonathan Lekkerimäki.

If DeBrusk can find a home in Bo Horvat’s old spot in the middle of Vancouver’s first power-play unit, 30 goals and 55 points is a realistic baseline for what we should expect from him production-wise. If he’s only a part time PP1 contributor, however, DeBrusk’s production is more likely to settle in the high-20s for goals and high-40s for points. Producing at that level is still great, but it wouldn’t exactly make Canucks fans drop Zach Hyman comparisons.

Likelihood: 7/10

Is this the year Connor Garland forces his way into a top-line role? (Bob Frid / USA Today)

From under-rated play driving third-liner to top-line calibre winger

The Canucks have a pair of undersized wingers who have been productive, play-driving forces in bottom-six roles for this club over the past few seasons. With both still in their mid-20s, is this the year they cement themselves as top-of-the-lineup contributors?

Conor Garland

If you were to ask the average Canucks fans how many more goals Miller has scored than Conor Garland has in the three seasons since Garland arrived in Vancouver, they’d likely provide you with an answer in the double digits. The real answer is two (50 goals for Miller, to 48 for Garland).

Garland is one of the Canucks’ most reliable five-on-five engines, but because of his size and because of how Tocchet values third-line contributions, he’s rarely played up the lineup.

Perhaps this year is the year that changes. Garland did ultimately play top-six minutes for Vancouver in the Stanley Cup playoffs, after all.

At even-strength Garland has been Vancouver’s most impactful play driver and their third most consistent point producer. It’s fair to note that perhaps his dominant five-on-five form wouldn’t hold if he was played in a larger role against tougher competition further up the lineup, but it’s also possible that it would.

Is this the year that Garland forces his way into a top-line role, and we find out?

Likelihood: 4/10

Nils Höglander

Nils Höglander hasn’t been a rate stats all-star or play driver at Garland’s level during his early 20s, but he’s a much younger player and is somewhat taller and could be the more likely of the two to get a real look further up the lineup this upcoming season.

The Canucks have two clear vacancies in their top-six, and Höglander is likely to get a look at filling one of those spots — either during this preseason or at some point this year. Höglander’s skill set, especially his speed and puck battle winning, would seem like a complement for either the below the hashmarks game preferred by Miller and Brock Boeser, or for the rush scoring threat likely to be posed by Pettersson and DeBrusk.

Höglander enters this season carrying some regression risk given that he converted on 20 percent of his shots from last season, but he can make up for a less efficient conversion rate if his opportunity is enhanced over the course of this upcoming campaign. The opportunity is there, if he’s able to be slightly more detailed away from the puck.

Likelihood: 6/10

From promising prospect with impressive big-game resume to established NHL goaltender

Artūrs Šilovs is unflappable. Relegated to the American League after the Canucks bolstered their backup goaltending with the Casey DeSmith acquisition right before training camp 2023, Šilovs had an uneven campaign in the American League. The young Latvian netminder excelled, however, when pressed into duty as Vancouver’s starter during the Stanley Cup playoffs. Can he be even better as a full-time NHL goaltender this season?

Artūrs Šilovs

Artūrs Šilovs’ playoff heroics, Thatcher Demko’s injury (and indefinite timeline) and Šilovs’ strong performance at training camp and through the preseason have given him the inside track to be the Canucks starter on opening night of the 2024-25 campaign.

Šilovs, 23, has just 19 games of NHL experience under his belt. He’s actually appeared in more postseason games than he has at the regular season to this point.

While obviously talented and precocious in big game environments — Šilovs’ best hockey has been played in the World Championships, and in the Stanley Cup playoffs — Šilovs’ regular season track record at both the AHL and NHL levels hasn’t been high-end from a save percentage standpoint. Can he be more consistent, seize the full-time NHL opportunity that’s ahead of him this season and perform at the level of good 1B-type platoon starter this upcoming season?

Likelihood 5/10

From fringe roster player to everyday fixture

Two standout forwards from Vancouver’s first preseason games are fighting to cement themselves as NHL-level players. One is a young centre with only 15 games of NHL experience under his belt, the other is a journeyman winger with a unique offensive profile in search of a permanent NHL home…

Aatu Räty

Aatu Räty is just 21, is coming off of an excellent summer where he gained at least half a stride of skating speed and appears to have an opportunity to upset the applecart and force his way onto Vancouver’s opening night 23-man roster.

Though Räty finished off his 2023-24 campaign in incredible fashion as a full-time winger, the club opted to keep him at centre for Young Stars and training camp. His ability to win draws was central to that internal decision.

And that ability to win draws, especially when he switches to take weak side draws as if he were a right-handed shooter, could help Räty punch his ticket to a full-time job with the big club. Big, skilled and more proficient in the circle than Pius Suter, who has performed so well for Vancouver when utilized on the wing, Räty has given himself an opportunity to break camp with the Canucks for the first time in his career.

Remaining at that level, however, will require a high degree of consistency. And some face-off wins and meaningful production too.

Likelihood: 5/10

Daniel Sprong

For his career to this point Daniel Sprong has been more like a heat check NBA bench scorer than your typical depth guy at the NHL level.

From an offensive tools perspective, Sprong is elite. His assist rate is high-end, his ability to drive shooting percentage is the sort of rare trait usually reserved only for the best in the sport and his shot is lethal. There’s only about a dozen finishers that are Sprong’s equal in the entire league.

Sprong, however, has been non-tendered by multiple organizations over the course of his career. This summer he remained available in free agency until mid-July. He’s still relatively young for a journeyman, but he’s got the frequent flier miles that earn him that status.

The key for Sprong in carving out a bigger role will be to improve as a defensive player and two-way presence. He’s got the size and speed to make an impact away from the puck, even if that’s been inconsistent throughout his career.

We’ve seen that this Canucks coaching staff can figure out how to utilize less defensively sound offensive wingers effectively, the Andrei Kuzmenko experience being an instructive example. If Sprong can hold down a regular shift, however, and avoid that sort of treatment, he has the skillset to be a real game breaker in Vancouver’s top-nine.

Likelihood: 6/10

(Photo of J.T. Miller: Derek Cain / Getty Images)