This year’s awards race has no strikes, no pandemic and no postponed or canceled awards shows.
At this point, it also has no real frontrunners.
So far, 2024 has been a down year at the box office and a confusing year on the film festival circuit. Before the fall festivals, the Oscar race was something of a waiting game, with everybody curious about the potential contenders that would be unveiled in Venice, Telluride and Toronto.
And now that those festivals have run their course, it’s a different kind of waiting game: waiting to see which films can start feeling like serious contenders rather than long-to-medium shots.
There’s no big commercial movie out there with the clout that “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” showed last year. And no indie film that seems to have the buzz to become this year’s “CODA” or “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
Instead, the race is a whole bunch of maybes: maybe this movie will catch on with awards bodies, maybe that yet-unseen movie will be a no-doubter, maybe the international voters that have transformed Academy membership over the last six years will make bold choices …
It’s October, Oscar voting begins in a little more than three months, and the big show will take place in about five. So here’s a look at the components of this year’s race so far.
Big sequels
Apart from “The Godfather Part II” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” sequels don’t win Best Picture. And more often than not, they don’t get nominated, either: Since the Best Picture roster was expanded from five to 10 in 2009, only four of the 136 nominees have been sequels. (Those four were “Toy Story,” “Mad Max,” “Top Gun” and “Avatar” sequels.)
But four massive sequels are hitting screens in 2024, three of them already out. Of those three, Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two” seems to be the best bet, considering that its predecessor received 10 nominations and led all films with six wins in 2021. “Furiosa: A Mad Max Story” seemed to have less of an impact when it was released after the Cannes Film Festival, while “Joker: Folie à Deux” received wildly mixed reviews in Venice and could be a tough sell to voters as it shifts in and out of fantasy and in and out of musical numbers set to classic pop songs, all within the framework of what is essentially a courtroom drama for its second hour.
“Gladiator II,” the long-delayed sequel to Ridley Scott’s 2000 Best Picture winner, hasn’t screened yet but has to be considered a strong contender. But it’s worth noting that Scott has made 18 movies in the 24 years since the first “Gladiator,” and only one of them, 2015’s “The Martian,” was nominated for Best Picture. “Gladiator II” will need to recapture some of that “Gladiator I”/”Martian” mojo rather than remind viewers of his last two films, “House of Gucci” and “Napoleon.”
Cannes movies and international films
Two movies came out of the Cannes Film Festival with a seemingly clear path to Best Picture nominations. Sean Baker’s “Anora,” the Palme d’Or winner, is the raucous, very funny and unexpectedly moving story of a sex worker who gets involved with the son of a Russian oligarch. It might have been too wild and too sexual for the old Academy, but it shouldn’t be a problem for the current membership. And with the organization now increasingly international, things also look good for French director Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language “Emilia Perez,” a full-fledged musical about a Mexican cartel leader who undergoes sex reassignment surgery.
A couple of other films – like “Emilia Perez,” their home countries’ entries in the Oscars’ Best International Feature Film race – also premiered at festivals and have an outside chance of picking up some Best Picture heat. “I’m Still Here,” a wrenching family story set in Brazil during the military dictatorship in the 1970s, is the first film in more than a decade from “Central Station” and “The Motorcycle Diaries” director Walter Salles, and it won raves in Venice and Toronto. Mohammad Rasoulof’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” which focuses on an Iranian judge whose promotion puts him in an ethical quandary, is a dark horse. But the director’s own story may give it a boost. Identified by the state as a dissident, he was sentenced to be flogged and imprisoned, and fled the country ahead of his film’s Cannes premiere.
Other festival movies
Of the other films that premiered in Venice, Telluride and Toronto, the one with the most buzz is probably Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist,” a three-and-a-half-hour epic (with built-in intermission) starring Adrien Brody as a European architect who comes to the U.S. after fleeing the Holocaust. “The Brutalist” may be more of a movie for critics than voters, but it’s probably impressive enough to be in the mix all season.
Another bold vision is RaMell Ross’s “Nickel Boys,” an adaptation of the book by Colson Whitehead. The film tells the story of brutality in a Florida reform school, filmed from the point of view of the protagonist in a style that can be lyrical but also disorienting. It’s told in images as much as in dialogue — a dramatic contrast to Malcolm Washington’s “The Piano Lesson,” in which an all-star cast grabs hold of the 1987 August Wilson play, and to Pedro Almodóvar’s English-language debut, “The Room Next Door,” which is structured around lengthy conversations between characters played by Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore.
Pablo Larraín’s “Maria,” which stars Angelina Jolie as diva Maria Callas, is strong in both words and images; perhaps the strongest of Larraín’s three English-language movies about iconic women (the first two being “Jackie” and “Spencer”). It will certainly get Jolie lots of Best Actress attention but could also get recognition for the film.
The sleeper among other festival movies may be Swiss director Tim Fehlbaum’s “September 5,” a drama about the 1972 Munich Olympic hostage crisis that sets the action almost entirely inside the building where an ABC news crew is trying to cover the story. The novelty of having a thriller where the action is taking place somewhere else could make the film feel fresh to voters.
Finally, Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain” debuted at Sundance way back in January, a festival that doesn’t often place films into the Best Picture category, “CODA” notwithstanding.
Directors with Oscar pedigree
More than a dozen films are in contention from directors who’ve had films in the Best Picture race in the past — not just “Dune: Part Two,” “Gladiator II,” “Joker: Folie a Deux” and “Furiosa,” but also new work from Steve McQueen, Mike Leigh, Luca Guadagnino, Edward Berger, Jason Reitman, James Mangold, Richard Linklater and John Crowley.
We’ll cover Mangold and Linklater’s movies elsewhere in this piece. Leigh’s “Hard Truths” is corrosive and brilliant, with a scorching lead performance by Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who starred in Leigh’s Best Picture nominee “Secrets and Lies” in 1995. But it will take some serious work to get this tough but understated gem on voters’ radar. The two 2024 films from “Call Me by Your Name” director Guadagnino, “Challengers” and “Queer,” might be even tougher sells, though both have their fans.
McQueen’s “Blitz” and Berger’s “Conclave,” though, are strong contenders. The former finds the “12 Years a Slave” director mounting a muscular World War II story in which a young mother (Saoirse Ronan) searches a ravished London for her lost son. The latter, which comes two years after Berger’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” won numerous Oscars, is a stylish thriller set inside the conclave to select a new pope. Both have the feel of likely nominees.
Reitman’s “Saturday Night,” meanwhile, might be a more obvious choice for the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards’ comedy categories, but the breakneck pace and infectious energy of his look at the prelude to the first episode of “Saturday Night Live” could easily sway Oscar voters as well. And don’t rule out “We Live in Time,” a romantic comedy of sorts from “Brooklyn” director Crowley, which benefits from a stellar central couple in Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield and manages to be moving when you think it might get sappy.
Indies that won raves earlier this year
The year has already seen a handful of releases that could end up on an array of Top 10 lists. But the success of “Everything Everywhere All at Once” notwithstanding, it’s not easy for small films from earlier in the year to make a mark in awards season. Greg Kwedar’s “Sing Sing,” with a powerhouse performance by Colman Domingo in a film about a theater production inside a prison, has played very well in front of industry audiences and probably has the best shot at being an awards player.
Sadly, Richard Linklater’s “Hit Man” and Jeff Nichols’ “The Bikeriders,” which were released in May and June, respectively, are both longshots, albeit richly deserving ones. And Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is the biggest hit of the group, with a worldwide gross of more than $120 million that puts it second only to “Everything Everywhere” among A24 films.
By the way, “Hit Man” and “The Bikeriders” are among the 36 films currently available to Oscar voters in the members-only screening platform known as the Academy Screening Room. Other notable films in the room, which adds new films every Friday, include “His Three Daughters,” “Kinds of Kindness,” “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” and “Thelma.”
Yet to be seen
Here’s a rule of thumb for potential awards contenders that have yet to screen for voters or at film festivals heading into October: Most of them will not be nominated for Best Picture. Sure, one or two latecomers usually slip in, but the majority fizzle out. So at this point, it’s hard to be optimistic about the chances for what appears to be a strong lineup of yet-unseen contenders that includes James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu,” Robert Zemeckis’ “Here,” Clint Eastwood’s “Juror #2” and Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked,” among others. (“Gladiator II” is also on this list, of course.)
Can “Wicked” overcome the fact that “West Side Story” is the only adaptation of a Broadway musical to be nominated for Best Picture in the last decade, a period that included film versions of “The Color Purple,” “Dear Evan Hansen,” “In the Heights,” “Tick, Tick … Boom” and “Cats,” among others?
Can Timothee Chalamet be a convincing Bob Dylan in Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” a biopic of a guy who seems spectacularly ill-suited to biopics? (Todd Haynes used six different actors to play Dylan in “I’m Not There,” and Martin Scorsese’s last “documentary” about the singer pretty much made everything up.)
Can Eggers get a horror movie into the Best Picture lineup for the first time since “The Exorcist?” Can Eastwood, who perfected the art of an 11th-hour Oscar surprise with “Million Dollar Baby,” drop another bomb into the race with the courtroom drama “Juror #2?” Can Zemeckis finally get his second Best Picture nomination on the 30th anniversary of his first one for “Forrest Gump?”
My guess is that the answer to most of those questions is No, though “A Complete Unknown” and “Gladiator II” might have the best shot. But like everybody else, I’m flying blind here.
Animated contenders
Every year, people wonder if any animated films will manage to crash the Best Picture race. And every year since 2010, none has. (The same question is asked about documentaries, which never make the jump.) As long as there’s a separate category for animated features, voters just don’t seem inclined to include them in the best-pic vote.
This year there are two strong contenders trying to buck that trend. Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” has the added burden of being the sequel to a movie that won Best Animated Feature but wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. But at least its filmmakers can remind themselves that one of the three animated films to be nominated in the category, 2010’s“Toy Story 3,” was also a Pixar sequel. And then there’s Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s “The Wild Robot,” with wildly laudatory reviews but a tougher road to Oscar, given voters’ longstanding love for Disney/Pixar.
Too much?
Finally, let’s look at a group of films that may simply be too tough, too dark or too weird even for a more adventurous Academy. The Cannes sensation “The Substance” likely falls in this group, though the long and graphic body-horror film will no doubt bring lots of heat for lead actress Demi Moore. But will voters outside the Actors Branch get through the first hour of the film on the screening platform? I’d be very curious to see those stats — though even if the Academy keeps track, it would never spill the beans.
Halina Reijn’s “Babygirl” and Marielle Heller’s “Nightbitch” are two other films in which attention is likely to go to the lead actresses — Nicole Kidman and Amy Adams, respectively — while the films themselves may be a bit extreme for voters. And while Ali Abbasi’s “The Apprentice” is pretty restrained for the director who brought us troll sex in “Border,” the story of the making of Donald Trump will either seem wildly timely or just too off-putting. Let’s just say that if Kamala Harris wins the election, voters may want to move on.
And then there’s Francis Coppola’s enormous and unwieldy passion project, “Megalopolis,” which divided audiences in Cannes and dropped like a lead balloon at the box office last weekend. Maybe you can’t rule out Coppola, but his film pretty much defines the term too much.
So what gets in?
The short answer: I don’t know. Nobody does, really.
But in a year that is still struggling to figure out where it’s going, here are my best early-October guesses – a top 10 followed by five additional films:
“Emilia Perez” (Neflix)
“Anora” (Neon)
“Conclave” (Focus)
“Blitz” (Apple TV+)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight)
“Saturday Night” (Sony)
“September 5” (Paramount)
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
“We Live in Time” (A24)
