NBA Reliability Tiers: Tyrese Maxey, Lauri Markkanen and the Kawhi Leonard irony

Welcome to The Athletic’s inaugural NBA Reliability Tiers, in which we measure the All-NBA status of the 49 All-Stars during the last three seasons and weigh how much those stars play in the regular season. Each day we will introduce a new tier. We introduced the series with Tier 5. This is Tier 4.

All of the players outside of the top 30 have only been an All-Star once in the last three seasons. But the intersection of value and availability gets interesting here in Tier 4.

This second group of players combines the most available of the stars who are in danger of falling out of the Player Participation Policy criteria for “star players” with the stars who have been more valuable in recent years but not nearly as available. It is doubtful that a player in this group can be counted on to be your best player for a contender in the upcoming season.

As a reminder, the Player Participation Policy was one of the primary inspirations for the Reliability Tiers. Shortly after the NBA reintroduced its new star-based policy, major social media accounts chose to use LA Clippers star Kawhi Leonard as the face of the new policy. We mean, literally the face — he was put on splash graphics for missing games.

Unsurprisingly, Leonard did not appreciate it. He has a reputation for being taciturn, but the reality doesn’t match the narrative. When something is on his mind, Leonard has plenty to say. And before teams left for training camp last year, Leonard pushed back on the idea that the Player Participation Policy was going to make him play more often or, most importantly, keep him healthy.

“I just don’t know the policy — what is the policy?” Leonard said at 2023 media day. “I’m not a guy that’s sitting down because I’m doing a load management… When I was with the Raptors, it was different; I was coming from an injury. You have to know the details of a doctor. If the league is seeing or trying to mock what I did with the Raptors, then they should stop, because I was injured during that whole year.”

Leonard said all of this while in the midst of a stretch where he hadn’t even been an All-Star because an injury took him off the floor. The Player Participation Policy going back to three seasons specifically seemed to target him because if it hadn’t, Leonard would not be considered a star as a result. Leonard was an All-Star and All-NBA selection in 2021 before injuring his knee in the playoffs, and he spent a season recovering from that surgery.

When he made his comeback in 2022-23, Leonard was trying to do everything in his power to come back and re-establish himself. He was noticeably bulkier after a summer of training his body and strengthening his legs. He participated fully in training camp. He played in multiple preseason games. When the regular season arrived, he surprised the coaching staff by asking to come off of the bench to adjust for the fact that his minute restriction would make it hard to start and end both halves effectively.

But Leonard’s knee flared up by the second week of the regular season, and it cost him a few more weeks on the sideline to strengthen it. When Leonard came back, he injured his ankle three games later and missed another two weeks. By early December, Leonard had played only five games, and he wasn’t cleared to play back-to-backs until the following April. It cost Leonard an All-Star spot. Then Leonard tore his meniscus in the 2023 playoffs.

“I work out every day in the summertime to play the game, not to sit and watch people play,” Leonard scoffed in 2023. “No league policy is helping me to play more games.”

As much as Leonard pushed back on the policy, he did go out and play as many games as he could in 2023-24. Leonard didn’t just play in back-to-backs; he played in every game of a seven-day stretch where the Clippers played five games at the end of November 2023. Leonard didn’t miss a game until Dec. 21. Once Leonard returned from a hip contusion on Jan. 1, Leonard did not miss consecutive games for all of January, February, and March. He was back in the All-Star Game. He cleared the 65-game mark, and was named to the All-NBA team again. His ability was never the issue, but his availability made him a “star” again in the eyes of the league.

Unfortunately, Leonard’s knee flared up once again in April. He hasn’t been right since, with another ruined postseason, a missed opportunity with the Olympics, and the Clippers deciding to be cautious with his return to play and holding him out to begin this upcoming season. Even as a two-time Finals MVP, Leonard is who critics think about when it comes to stars struggling with availability.

Leonard is an outlier in this tier. It is full of players who either just became All-Stars, or who may never be All-Stars again. But while some lesser lights than Leonard are here, their availability may make them more likely to help their teams win regular-season games than Leonard might be this upcoming season.

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Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 69.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

When it comes to small guards, VanVleet is one of the most available players in the league. Over the past three seasons, only nine players have played more minutes, only eight players have made more 3s, only six players have more assists and only three players have more steals. On the flip side, VanVleet will be 31 years old in February, has never shot 43 percent or better from the field and his scoring has dropped from his All-Star career-high of 20.3 points each of the last two seasons. It will be a surprise if VanVleet gets back to an All-Star Game, but his consistency should be applauded.

Average games played last three seasons: 70.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Gobert’s defensive accolades speak for themselves, for the most part; there are always some bad-faith arguments when it comes to Gobert’s accomplishments. When Gobert missed a Timberwolves playoff win in Denver because of the birth of his child, some player analysts tried to use that as a point against Gobert’s impact. While Gobert has been a top defender in Minnesota, he has not made an All-Star Game since he was traded from Utah. Given his limitations offensively as a passer and shooter, there’s a chance that Gobert’s awards are limited to All-Defense teams.

Minnesota Timberwolves

C

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 73.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

In two years with the Atlanta Hawks, Dejounte Murray has missed a total of 12 games. That does not include a postseason suspension in 2023 for making inappropriate contact with and verbally abusing a game official. Murray was unable to form a working partnership with Trae Young, and as a result, his lone All-Star selection is still from his last season with the San Antonio Spurs. Murray will now try to find his fit in New Orleans, though it helps he was brought to the Pelicans specifically to address the team’s woeful clutch-time offense.

New Orleans Pelicans

SG

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 49.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star

Irving just came off a postseason where he played a career-high 879 minutes. That’s 54 more minutes than Irving’s other seasons since he left Cleveland in 2017 combined. Talent and on-court fit is rarely the concern for Irving, a player equally dangerous on the ball or off the ball playing next to a fulcrum of offense. Irving has missed at least 15 games each of the last seven seasons, and while last year was by far his quietest in terms of non-injury incidents in several seasons, he still missed 24 games due mostly to heel and thumb injuries. Irving will be 33 years old in March, and durability has never been a strong suit of his.

Average games played last three seasons: 60.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-NBA Third Team, 2022 All-Star

Paul is the lowest-ranked player who has appeared on an All-NBA team just one of the last three years. Last season in Golden State was the first time that Paul came off the bench in 19 NBA seasons, and the first time he missed the playoffs in 14 years. In 2023, Paul missed the final four postseason games in Phoenix due to a groin injury, and his final All-Star season was interrupted by a fractured thumb. The future Hall of Famer is 39 years old and now on his seventh NBA team, but he will get to start again in San Antonio after averaging fewer than 13 points and 31 minutes for the first time in his career last season.

San Antonio Spurs

PG

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 60.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

Markkanen broke out as an All-Star and the league’s Most Improved Player in 2023, but last season highlighted the fact that Markkanen has missed at least 14 games in every season of his career. Hamstring, quad and shoulder injuries held Markkanen to only 55 games last season, and he is still looking for his first career postseason as well. After signing a new contract extension in August to stay in Utah, it would be a surprise if Markkanen played in the postseason in 2025.

Average games played last three seasons: 67.7

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star

Holiday joining the Celtics resulted in a drop from his All-Star volume in Milwaukee, but he also just got his second NBA championship, earned All-Defense team honors and took home a gold medal in the Paris 2024 Olympics. Other than a shoulder injury in March, Holiday was mostly healthy last season. He is 34, but Holiday has one of the lightest workloads of a star point guard. It’s how he went from shooting 39.6 percent from the field in three postseasons with the Bucks to 50.3 percent with the Celtics last spring.

Average games played last three seasons: 69.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2023 All-Star

Jackson Jr. played 500 more minutes than any other Grizzlies player last season, and his ability to stay on the floor has improved significantly over the past three seasons. While he reached career-highs in offensive volume, Jackson’s efficiency suffered while trying to prop up the league’s worst offense. Jackson was the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year, but his effectiveness dropped off without a bodyguard-type center consistently in the lineup. Getting Jackson back to All-Star level and All-Defense form could be as simple as playing with Ja Morant and lottery pick Zach Edey, but Jackson Jr. is already dealing with a bad hamstring this month.

Memphis Grizzlies

PF

Tier 4

Average games played last three seasons: 40.0

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2022 All-Star

No All-NBA performer over the last three seasons has been dealt a tougher hand than Leonard, who suffered a torn ACL in the second round of the 2021 playoffs and did not see the floor the entire next season. Leonard returned to the NBA in 2022, improving to 52 games that season and 68 games in 2023-24. He re-established his star status last season, becoming the only player in the league to score 1,500 points, make at least 50 percent from the field, and add 100 steals and 100 3s. On the other hand, Leonard has failed to make it through any postseason healthy since 2020 due to right knee woes. Inflammation in Leonard’s right knee was the problem last spring, and the Clippers are having Leonard focus on strengthening his knee before he takes the floor for the upcoming season. It highlights the lengths the Clippers have to go to in order to not only get Leonard on the floor, but to keep him on the floor as well.

Average games played last three seasons: 68.3

All-NBA/All-Star last three seasons: 2024 All-Star

Maxey fully emerged as a star last season, playing his most games without Ben Simmons, James Harden or Joel Embiid on the active roster and showing that he could score at a high level. Other than a fracture in his left foot in November 2022, Maxey has been durable over the last three seasons, and he became the league’s Most Improved Player and a first-time All-Star in 2024. Maxey also averaged nearly 30 points per game in the Eastern quarterfinals. His volume will likely decrease with Embiid returning and Paul George joining the 76ers, but Maxey has already shown that he can be efficient without stars; he should be one of the higher floor stars in the league.

Philadelphia 76ers

PG

Tier 4

(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb: The Athletic; Photos: Tyler Ross / NBAE, Mitchell Leff, Glenn James / NBAE via Getty Images)



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