The Manchester derby takes place later today with both clubs in a state of flux.
United are six games into the tenure of Ruben Amorim after the early season dismissal of Erik ten Hag, while Pep Guardiola’s City are going through a period of one win in 10 matches, an unprecedented run in the club’s recent history.
Three of our writers sat down to discuss where each club is now, where they are headed and what both can hope to get from today’s match. We also asked for our writers’ starting XIs for the game, which you can view at the bottom of this article.
You can listen to the full discussion between Sam Lee, Mark Critchley and Thom Harris on The Athletic podcast, with Michael Bailey asking the questions.
When was the last derby with both sides having so many issues?
Sam Lee: I remember an underwhelming one that was fairly recent: Manuel Pellegrini and Louis van Gaal’s last respective seasons in 2016. But for City to be in this kind of form and also United, you’ve got to be going back to the 1980s at least.
Mark Critchley: Yeah, Pellegrini, Van Gaal when both clubs were in as much of a malaise as they are at the moment. But you can maybe say there’s scope for things to get better at both still and somehow more than there was then. But you have to go back a while for the mood to be just this low on both sides of Manchester.
What is going wrong for City, Sam?
Lee: I’ll try to be succinct…
Rodri is obviously a massive miss, but Kevin De Bruyne has been out for 10 weeks. Phil Foden is out. So there’s the creativity. The defence has just been like a rotating sushi conveyor belt of injuries and the ones who are fit have to play and play and play and they either get worse or get injured.
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Kyle Walker is struggling horrifically. Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake have been out and back in and back out again. Without Rodri, they’re physically lacking in midfield. Not too fast, not too strong, which creates opportunities for more counter-attacks. Kovacic is not the perfect replacement for Rodri, but he’s out as well. Ilkay Gundogan plays all the time and he doesn’t seem to have the legs for it. Bernardo Silva is playing all the time and not playing well. Rico Lewis is playing all the time and not playing well and, again, he’s not too strong; he can get pushed off the ball quite easily. We’ve seen that quite a bit.
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Then that leaves the defence exposed and in the defence, there’s hardly anybody fit. There’s also a little side helping that the wingers don’t score goals and Erling Haaland has been playing a lot and he’s a bit rusty. So they concede goals easily and they don’t score many. A lethal combination.
City lost 2-0 to Juventus on Wednesday (Marco Bertorello/AFP via Getty Images)
Does that tie in with what you’ve seen tactically, Thom?
Thom Harris: Absolutely. People roll their eyes at the Rodri excuse, but the higher you go up in the Premier League, with teams such as Arsenal and City, when you lose a player like Rodri, or like Martin Odegaard as Arsenal did earlier in the season, it does have an impact because your ceiling drops.
In the past, City can click into a higher gear and sail through, but they’re having to really fight for these games. That’s where mistakes creep in. City have already committed more errors leading to shots this season than they have in four of the last five seasons. It’s a massive domino effect. Rodri is so good at keeping the ball and not giving it away in midfield and inviting these counter-attacks.
He’s also good when City are broken because you know he’ll be in the right place. He’s physically dominant. He wins his aerial duels a lot more than Gundogan, Bernardo and Lewis. He knows how to make those smart fouls as well and just snuff these attacks out before they happen. City are playing such a high line and that’s easily exploited when they don’t win those midfield battles.
Are United going in the right direction, Mark?
Critchley: Thursday’s win over Viktoria Plzen was a baby step in the right direction. If it hadn’t been for that late Rasmus Hojlund winner, the reaction would have been quite different. Maybe that’s a little bit unfair, a bit results-based, but the first hour was pretty terrible. It was being rated as probably one of the worst performances of the season, never mind just under Amorim.
But once he made changes, you had that proactive approach from the touchline that wasn’t there under Erik ten Hag a lot of the time. He’s been able to make these in-game tweaks that have often improved United’s performances.
Hojlund scored twice in the 2-1 win over Viktoria Plzen on Thursday (Michal Cizek/AFP via Getty Images)
Can you see what he’s trying to implement, Thom?
Harris: I think so. There are a few square pegs in round holes at the moment; the wing-backs is a big one. You see them on their opposite foot on the opposite flank and that is harder for them to build up quickly and get into those attacking areas.
The main thing is there was a lot of space in the midfield and they were easy to play through, getting hit on the break. And this new shape under Amorim, the back five, helps to solidify. I like Mason Mount in a front three. He presses well from the front. So there are things to build on. As Amorim has said, he needs time to work out the players and to recruit players to play a system.
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As for City, is there anything going right?
Lee: They haven’t given up, but they keep going back to the well, they keep doing what they’re supposed to do. The worst one was Feyenoord because to be 3-0 up with 15 minutes to go and draw, that was the biggest blow. That was when you think, ‘What is going on?’. Then they go to Liverpool. They play well in parts, surviving, showing a bit of character. That Nottingham Forest game feels a long time ago, but it was last Wednesday. They started so well, they turned up, they were pressing, there was energy. And you just think, ‘How often can they keep it up?’.
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At half-time against Juventus, when it was 0-0, nothing really happened. They were surviving, but at least they were doing what they needed to do. We know it’s not good enough, but the fight is there. It’s not a situation where Guardiola has lost the dressing room. They’re all in it together trying to get out of it now. I don’t think they’re going to get out of it any time soon. Maybe they beat United, but they’ve got Aston Villa away next and the games between Christmas and around New Year are OK. But then in January, they have a horrible fixture list. The team isn’t good enough even with these quality players to get through these matches because they’re just so weak on counter-attacks. There’s no defence. But at least they’re still fighting. You’d almost say it’s the bare minimum. It would be easy after these 10 games to lose hope, but I don’t think they have.
What have your interactions with Guardiola been like and how has that changed?
Lee: People are saying stuff about Guardiola as if it’s new and he’s showing the strain, but people have always thought he was weird in terms of what he says and does. So if he’s doing that now, is that because he’s losing or is it because that’s how he is?
What’s different? Well, the questions are obviously a lot more negative. I’m not saying that’s wrong, it’s just a reality, so the answers are more negative. But as I say, the team keep doing what they’re doing, it’s not like Guardiola has lost the dressing room.
(Carl Recine/Getty Images)
One of the secrets to the success is that Guardiola has always said, ‘Look, if you’re high, if you’re winning, don’t get too high, don’t get too carried away’.
Obviously, now it’s harder for the players because whatever they try isn’t working. But he’s got the same approach. You go in every day, you try to find the solutions. He’d always be stressed about matches, even when City are winning. We know he can get down on his haunches when he’s stressed during a counter-attack. He can scratch his head. So was he scratching his head during that Feyenoord collapse? Of course he was because this is what he’s always like.
The results are obviously bringing that out of him slightly, but I don’t think he’s changed. The reason he signed the contract on the back of those four defeats, he was like, ‘I feel I need to stay and get the team back to the top’. It’s almost like the worse it gets, the more determined he’ll be to fix it.
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How is Guardiola fixing City’s issues?
Harris: He’s working with what he’s got. Pep has realised what he can control and the things he can’t control, the mistakes, the injuries. There were a few good spells in that Juventus game. The first half was dull, but that was good from a City perspective because they controlled the game. They probably could have gone one up and it might have been a different game.
Critchley: If you were going to have one manager who was going to figure out a way of getting out of this situation, then it would be him, right? It’s interesting he hasn’t yet come across that formula because we always expect that he eventually will. That’s why expectations for this season have to be tempered. They’re obviously going to improve, players are going to come back, but is it going to be the City that we’ve come to expect over the last few seasons? Probably not.
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Lee: They haven’t found that solution, but the solutions are the problems. What does Guardiola do when he’s got a doubt? Loads of passes, more passes than ever, more people in the middle. But who are the bodies going in the middle? Gvardiol or Walker? And then who are the guys giving the passes? Gundogan. Gundogan is patently knackered.
They’re losing the ball and Walker hasn’t got the pace to get back now. Or Gvardiol is too high. So those solutions are only causing more problems because the Guardiola playbook almost doesn’t apply at the moment. He knows exactly what his team’s limitations are, but the solutions are the problem and that’s why it’s a bit of a neverending circle.
How has Amorim dealt with the United job so far?
Critchley: You can see why United’s decision-makers were so taken by him. He’s charismatic, a clear communicator, able to convey key messages to players. That was often levelled at Ten Hag, that he didn’t build that relationship with the squad.
It’s a tough one for journalists because you’ll ask him a question, he’ll smile and give you a detailed answer or certainly a long answer, and then you look back and he hasn’t actually given away much at all. He knows how to play that side.
I think he has been a little bit taken aback by the scale of the job. It’s dawned on him that this job is not just about coaching players. It’s a long way down the list, really. Yes, you have to do that, but you have to be a figurehead. You have to address the various things that go on at United. You have to be front and centre of all of that.
But I’ve been impressed with how he has come into the job and been realistic about what it’s going to entail and just how long things are going to take to improve.
It’s easy for fans and media and the whole ecosystem around United to get swept up in a new manager winning games. He’s come in and he said, ‘Well, you know the performance wasn’t all there. I want to see improvements. We’ve only got through on decisive moments’. That sober analysis has been there all the way through.
That’s going to be critical because this season is a bit of a write-off. Not totally, qualifying for the Champions League through winning the Europa League would be a huge achievement, but the way it’s gone with the decision to stick with Ten Hag at the end of last season, the delay of making a change and everything that’s just gone on with Dan Ashworth, it has impacted on the season and means everybody needs to take a step back, take a deep breath and let United adapt. That’s difficult at a club of this size and with this kind of scrutiny.
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After Sporting beat City, does that mean Amorim will have the blueprint for Sunday, Thom?
Harris: No, I think it gives us some clues as to how the two teams will set up. I don’t think it gives us any clues as to how the game will go.
What we’re going to see is Amorim’s defensive system with the five across the back, the two holding midfielders and then the three pushing from the front to match City. They’ll look to build up with three defenders, two midfielders and then five across the front.
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It becomes a game of individual battles and for City, who will be controlling most of the ball, it will be: ‘How can you move around this setup?’. Are you looking for De Bruyne to drift out wide and are you looking for Bernardo to drop deep? How can they disrupt that stable state? For United, it’s about winning duels and counter-attacking, which is the blueprint at the moment as to how to beat this City team.
(Gualter Fatia/Getty Images)
Critchley: Ugarte in the middle will be a big one because if City go into this game with Bernardo Silva and if there is Gundogan in the middle, United can snap about in the middle, win the ball, and give it to Bruno Fernandes. He’s good at getting the ball over the top to someone like Hojlund, who can play that disruptive role and just run in behind. That will probably be the United game plan.
Lee: After the Sporting game, Amorim said, “We’re able to play counter-attacking football here, but when I go to United, they are going to need to have more of the ball.” Over the course of his time at United, he is going to need to do that. Maybe they can, but I don’t think they can keep playing on the counter-attack. They need to modernise at some point. But as far as Sunday goes, it’s worked for United over the last few years, even when City have been really strong. If you know how to play on the counter-attack, your players do stick with that. City just need to keep going through the motions and hope Haaland takes a chance early on.
What would be a good season for both clubs?
Critchley: Expectations have to be tempered. If United could get fifth, and if that was another Champions League or if they could have a serious run in the Europa League, I think people would look back on that and think that’s a success, a tangible material kind of trophy cabinet sort of success.
But is that how you want to judge success? We’ve just had a manager who everybody knew was underachieving and wasn’t getting a tune out of the squad and wasn’t building a sustainable team that would achieve success in the future. We’ve had him saying, “Look, I’ve won two trophies.” People could see through the flaws in that argument. It was the strongest card Ten Hag had to defend himself against the scrutiny, but people understand that probably isn’t the way to solely judge the progress.
If at the end of the season you can say this is Amorim’s team and they’re moving towards that, it is just as much of a success as probably any trophy.
Lee: City decided not to do the major business this summer and thought, ‘We’ll do it next summer. As long as we don’t get loads of injuries, we’ll be all right’. And, obviously, they did, but they didn’t expect to get Gundogan back. But when they did, they were like, ‘OK, we don’t need a striker because he can play false nine or Foden can play false nine and Gundogan can fill in in midfield’. And then Gundogan just has to play holding midfielder again and again and again. It’s like some kind of damned-to-eternity thing. He just can’t play that role anymore. They maybe thought Pep always finds solutions.
But you don’t have to be particularly good to get fourth place. If City can get into a position by February and they’ve stabilised, I think they’ll get in the Champions League. The noise is they’re definitely ready to buy some players. I think they’ll be fine, top four and then go again next season.
What does this game mean for the clubs?
Critchley: It is less important to an extent in the grander scheme of things than it has been for the past few years. Normally this game would be happening at a point when City are in a title race. And if City weren’t in the title race, the United manager was usually fighting for his job, so there’d be that element of jeopardy. I get the feeling that neither of those things apply, but both clubs are looking for a departure point from what they’ve been going through and a derby win can do that.
I’ve been struck by the amount of trepidation among City fans. I understand it completely, how vulnerable they’ve looked. Equally for United, if it was Amorim’s first big win, that could be could be a huge catalyst for the rest of their season.
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Lee: It would mean a lot on the day, but we’re past the point of one result being enough to turn things around. City can’t just beat United and everything’s going to be fixed. They’ve still got all the injuries. They’ve still got the lack of physicality and mobility in midfield. So it’s big just in the sense of getting some good vibes back. The good vibes aren’t going to fix anything, but it will help to change the atmosphere around the club and give the fans something to cheer again.
I don’t need to explain how big a derby victory is. United have had derby victories down the years, their record is decent considering how big a gulf there is between the two teams, but United have always picked up victories here and there and it’s never really meant they’ve kicked on. So on the day, it’s huge. Beyond that, not so much.
Any predictions?
Harris: I’ve got a sneaky feeling City will kind of find some form and could get a win, but that could very easily be undone by a counter-attack in the 30th minute.
Lee: Honestly, no idea. If I had to guess, I’d go with a United win.
Critchley: All week, I’ve been leaning towards City. United are trying to adapt to Amorim’s style and that could just be a bit too much to juggle. So I’m going 2-1 City.
Writers’ starting XIs
(Top photos: Getty Images)
