NFL Panic Meter: How worried should Lions, Chiefs and Steelers be? Sando’s Pick Six

The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs entered Week 15 as betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.

That was before Chiefs superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes limped off the field Sunday, leaving backup Carson Wentz to finish a 21-7 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

It was also before the Lions’ injury-depleted defense lost three more players, reaching a potential breaking point in a 48-42 home defeat to the Buffalo Bills (Detroit trailed by 17 in the fourth quarter and 13 in the final minute).

Both the Lions and Chiefs lost ground among oddsmakers in the aftermath.

The Pick Six column this week calibrates the Panic Meter for the Lions, Chiefs and a range of teams facing potential crises, including the Pittsburgh Steelers (T.J. Watt’s ankle), Seattle Seahawks (Geno Smith’s knee), the Los Angeles Chargers (40-17 losers) and the San Francisco 49ers (Brock Purdy’s struggles). How worried should these teams be? The full Pick Six menu this week:

• Panic Meter: Lions, Chiefs and more
• Difference for Vikings’ Darnold
• Halas Hall intrigue for Bears
• Belichick’s non-schematic edge
• Browns’ QB decision: None of the above?
• 2-minute drill: MVP race update

1. Week 15 delivered more than its share of scares for contending teams (and others who hoped to contend). Let’s break out the Panic Meter to put them into perspective on a 1-10 scale.

Before running through the Panic Meter, we consider how Super Bowl odds, via BetMGM, changed after Sunday. The Lions’ chances took the hardest hit, as Philadelphia nearly drew even with Detroit after its 27-13 victory over the Steelers. The Chiefs also slipped some, with the Bills making the biggest jump.

• Lions lose more manpower on defense: Level 8 of 10 on the Panic Meter

If coach Dan Campbell hinted at his concern for the Lions’ defense last week when he went for it on fourth-and-1 late in a tie game against Green Bay, he shouted it Sunday by attempting an onside kick with 12 minutes left in a game Detroit trailed 38-28. The Lions trailed in the game by 11.1 points on a per-play average, their worst average deficit since last season, per TruMedia.

The Bills jumped to a 35-14 lead on their way to 559 total yards.

Detroit fought back, but the Lions’ chances faded as injuries knocked out defensive tackle Alim McNeill, starting cornerback Carlton Davis and backup corner Khalil Dorsey. Campell said Dorsey is finished for the season and that the other two could be as well.

These injuries felt like finishing blows to a defense that had already lost superstar pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and eight other defenders from its two-deep depth chart. Are the Lions still dangerous? Of course. But they are having a harder time controlling games against strong opponents.

The table below highlights the Lions’ depth chart as it appeared on Ourlads.com on Sept. 1. Light red shading shows players already on reserve lists before Sunday. Darker red shading singles out the players who were lost against the Bills.

The Lions showed they could keep scoring against the Bills to keep the game from getting further out of hand. But they were holding on.

“It’s the mark of a good head coach to be able to adapt,” a coach from another team said. “Campbell is already way up there in fourth-down attempts. If he wants to juice it and beat somebody 51-45, hats off to him if he can do that, too. It’s just hard to do that 2-3 times in the playoffs to go all the way.”

It will become tougher if the Lions, now 12-2, lose the division to 11-2 Minnesota, which hosts Chicago on Monday night. The teams play in Week 18 in Detroit. The Athletic’s projection model gives Detroit a 79 percent shot at winning the division and a 54 percent shot to claim the NFC’s top seed.

• Seahawks lose Geno Smith to knee injury: Level 7.5

The Seahawks entered their 30-13 defeat to Green Bay on Sunday night looking to validate their four-game winning streak on a national stage. Instead, they struggled on both sides of the ball, fell behind by three scores and lost Smith to a knee injury in the third quarter. It was close to a worst-case scenario.

Seattle now must navigate a difficult closing schedule — vs. Minnesota in Week 16, at the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18 — with questions at the most important position.

Smith has not enjoyed a stellar statistical season, partly because of his league-high four interceptions in the red zone, including one against the Packers. But he has three game-winning drives, has functioned behind a shuffling offensive line and showed he could keep Seattle in games, including when the team had 38 first downs against Detroit in Week 4.

Smith has been better in Pro Football Focus grading (seventh among 30 qualifiers entering Week 15) than on the stat sheet (19th in EPA per play). His backup, Sam Howell, had no meaningful reps in the offense before stepping in Sunday night. He struggled against the Packers after leading the league in interceptions with 21 for Washington last season.

• Chargers get dominated on both sides of the ball: Level 6.5

The Chargers ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA per play through Week 9. They rank 24th in six games since, a big reason they’ve slipped from 5-3 to 8-6 in that span.

We’re finding out the Chargers have improved from last season in their overall ability to win games, but they remain limited on both sides of the ball. They tend to win by minimizing risk, and when their defense falters, the formula does too.

Tampa Bay outgained the Chargers 506-206 in a 40-17 victory at Los Angeles. The Bucs converted 9 of 15 times on third down while holding Los Angeles without a single conversion in six chances, the fourth time in the Chargers’ last 545 total games they had none, per Pro Football Reference.

The Chargers still might get to 10 wins in their first season under Jim Harbaugh, but their chances of advancing in the playoffs appear slim.

• Mahomes suffers what Chiefs think was a high-ankle sprain: Level 6

Mahomes has proved he can lead the Chiefs to a Super Bowl victory on a bad ankle. He did it against the Philadelphia Eagles after the 2022 season. That doesn’t mean it’s easy or likely or that Mahomes can do it again with this team, which has a better record but has played closer games with smaller margins for error.

The chart below, which published Thursday as part of our piece explaining how the Chiefs have won 15 consecutive games decided by one score, shows how much value Mahomes’ scrambling has provided in those games over the last two seasons entering Sunday.

The Chiefs’ season-long problems in protection increase the chances Mahomes could absorb additional punishment before the playoffs. If anyone can persevere through it, Mahomes can. But the odds became a little longer Sunday, especially in a season when the Chiefs’ margin for error is smaller, despite their 13-1 record. Wrapping up the No. 1 seed before Week 18 could be additionally important from a rest standpoint.

If Wentz winds up playing, it’s worth noting coach Andy Reid’s record over the years in the regular season and playoffs with various QBs. The table below shows those records for all quarterbacks with at least 10 starts under Reid.

• Purdy struggles for 49ers on Thursday night: Level 5.5

This has been a lost 49ers season for reasons going well beyond Purdy. In fact, for much of the season, Purdy provided one of the few bright spots. He still ranks seventh in EPA per pass play and fifth in yards per attempt. But the way he struggled in bad weather against Buffalo and especially against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night sounded alarm bells for some of his supporters in the league.

“The new contract for Purdy (in the offseason) was a slam dunk for me until Thursday night,” an exec from another team said. “What I saw was a guy who was so limited physically that, I’m not saying I don’t want him, it’s just the first time I’ve said, ‘Hmmm, he can’t make those throws.’”

Perhaps it was the weather. Perhaps Purdy was injured. Whatever the case, his performance changed the conversation around him for some. The next few weeks will provide more information heading into a big offseason for San Francisco. The 49ers could let Purdy play out his contract. They could draft or sign competition for him. They could re-sign him to any number of deals. It’s easier to envision more options than what seemed like the obvious one for a long time.

• Steelers lose Watt to ankle injury: Level 4.5

News that Watt suffered “only” a sprained ankle instead of something more serious seemed like a best-case scenario on a play that looked at first glance to be one of those dreaded non-contact injuries.

The Steelers are 1-11 since 2017 when Watt does not play, including playoffs. They have allowed 26.2 points per game on defense in those games, about a touchdown more than otherwise. Their defense has averaged +0.08 EPA per play with him on the field and -0.02 without him, per TruMedia. That’s the difference between ranking No. 1 since 2017, as the Steelers do, and ranking 28th.

But with Watt having apparently avoided serious injury, the Steelers can look forward to having him — and No. 1 wideout George Pickens, whose absence hurt terribly against the Eagles — for the playoffs.

That made Steelers coach Mike Tomlin sound credible when he summed up the defeat to the Eagles rather casually.

“It’s a loss,” Tomlin said. “Let’s not get dramatic.”

2. Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings take center stage Monday night in what should be another showcase game for the NFL’s most surprising quarterback. Here’s what Darnold has proved down the stretch.

When the Vikings shocked the NFL by starting 3-0 with Darnold tossing a league-leading eight touchdowns, we noted that the quarterback had attempted only two passes while trailing. How would he fare when the Vikings inevitably fell behind over the course of the season?

The answer, so far: much better than in the past, and even better than he has performed when the Vikings have been tied or leading this season. The table below shows the surprising results.

This marks a big change for Darnold.

Before this season, every meaningful Darnold stat seemed to fall off a cliff when he was forced to play from behind.

His completion rate fell (64.4 percent to 55.9 percent). His yards per attempt fell (7.5 to 5.9). His touchdown-to-interception ratio cratered (40-20 to 23-36). His passer rating (93.2 to 66.0) and EPA per pass play (+0.05 to -0.17) also tanked.

Darnold did not attempt his third pass of the season while trailing until Week 7, when he completed 15 of 18 for 211 yards while trailing Detroit in a 31-29 defeat. He has attempted passes while trailing in every game since and ranks seventh in EPA per pass play and second in passer rating when trailing this season. His development as a passer in less favorable situations could have broad implications in the playoffs and beyond, as Darnold is set to be a free agent in March.

“I think Darnold is going to figure into the options in a lot of places,” an exec said.

One of those places could be Minnesota, especially if Darnold leads a deep playoff push. But injured rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy could still be the leader in the clubhouse for 2025.

“McCarthy is their guy,” the exec said. “The talking heads think they are crazy to let Darnold go, but they don’t have the same conviction on McCarthy as the Vikings do.”

3. Competing Bears agendas point to an intriguing December for the only NFC North team out of the playoff running.

Reports surrounding the Chicago Bears’ front office suggest all is not well inside Halas Hall.

The Chicago Tribune cited sources in suggesting general manager Ryan Poles hired former coach Matt Eberflus from Indianapolis without knowing the Colts planned to fire their then-defensive coordinator. This revelation placed the blame for Eberflus’ hiring onto Poles. Other tidbits in the story cast Poles unflatteringly.

Another report, from Chicago radio host Marc Silverman, suggested Poles might not have taken the GM job if he’d known the team was going to have him report to team president Kevin Warren instead of reporting directly to ownership, as Poles had done previously.

BIG report on Waddle and Silvy today that Ryan Poles is frustrated having to report to Warren and might not have taken the job if he knew about this power dynamic.

Wowza. Keeps getting worse at Halas hall. Not a situation a sought after coach would want to enter. #DaBears pic.twitter.com/WeD3vOsEwU

— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) December 10, 2024

This feels like positioning for whatever comes next.

The Bears’ failures under Eberflus and struggles to support quarterback Caleb Williams make Poles vulnerable. Frustrated fans might wonder what he has to complain about, given the Bears’ on-field performance during his tenure. The bigger point stands on its own: Chicago’s GM job could be less attractive now than it was when the GM reported directly to ownership.

“Warren makes media appearances and makes statements about your team and how you play and how disappointed or excited he is about you,” a veteran coach said.

Not many team presidents operate as publicly.

It’s shaping up to be an intriguing December for the Bears even though they aren’t part of the playoff race. Will a difficult closing stretch against Minnesota, Detroit, Seattle and Green Bay draw out more stories along these lines?

4. Defensive scheme might not be the only area where Bill Belichick enjoys an advantage at North Carolina (although there’s some debate over this).

One week ago, when even Tom Brady was laughing off the idea Belichick might coach at North Carolina, we listed reasons why a move to the college ranks could make sense for the 72-year-old coach.

Now that Belichick has taken the job, the public could be underrating one area where he might enjoy a big edge, beyond his obvious acumen in scheming on defense.

“They will be better evaluators than 90 percent of these major colleges will be,” a veteran NFL executive predicted.

This might run counter to perception because Belichick’s personnel decisions, especially during his final seasons in New England, contributed to his demise in the role.

The point is simply that after spending decades in the NFL, Belichick and his general manager, the former NFL executive Michael Lombardi, will bring to North Carolina a fully developed process for evaluating players and building rosters around salaries. That is important now that the college player acquisition model has moved away from coaches’ recruiting pitches toward a more transactional, pay-for-play approach.

“They already understand the cap, they understand how to pay and who to pay and how to structure a roster,” the exec said. “Colleges right now are scrambling to learn that and define that. These college coaches have really been their own GMs, and they have hired young guys to recruit. Belichick is going to be ahead.”

This is not a consensus view. Others think Belichick, never a big delegator, will not enjoy the more nettlesome aspects of the new college game.

“Bill used to put up an empty depth chart on the first day of camp, telling the guys they had to earn everything,” one coach said. “How he’s going to have transfers telling him they want X number of plays per game, or this many targets? What’s he going to do when some kid in the portal tells him what jersey number he wants?”

Brady was correct in wondering whether Belichick’s to-the-point personality would lend itself toward recruiting players and, crucially, retaining the ones already on his roster. It’s going to be fascinating to watch.

• Family history: The personnel evaluation angle is an interesting one on Belichick because his father, Steve, was more than a longtime college coach who spent 1953-55 coaching running backs at North Carolina. A former fullback at Western Reserve and for the Detroit Lions before serving in World War II, the elder Belichick was primarily known for the scouting methods he developed while on the Navy staff from 1956 to 1989.

In a free-flowing 1956 interview with the Durham Sun newspaper, Steve Belichick demonstrated his scouting acumen when asked to identify the best college fullback and quarterback he’d seen that season.

Wake Forest’s Billy Ray Barnes, who went to the Pro Bowl after each of his first three seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles, was Steve Belichick’s top fullback. Purdue’s Len Dawson, who went on to enjoy a Hall of Fame career with the Kansas City Chiefs, was his top quarterback.

• More Belichick fallout: Belichick’s decision to take the North Carolina job makes him eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2026 if he does not return to the NFL by then (the Hall requires coaches to have left the NFL for at least one year before they can be considered).

Belichick now appears likely to top of the list for consideration in 2026. That means other coaches in line for Hall consideration, notably Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin, might have to wait a year longer than they otherwise would have waited. The 2025 coaching finalist, Mike Holmgren, could gain approval next month.

• What about Carroll? Belichick, who jumped to college after determining his NFL prospects were dim, wasn’t the only Super Bowl-winning coach in his 70s hoping to get another shot in the league.

Pete Carroll, who turned 73 in September, has made it clear to associates that he would like to coach again, whether at the NFL or college levels.

If Carroll does not return to the NFL next season, he also would become eligible for Hall consideration. Belichick almost surely would skate through the process in 2026. Shanahan, Coughlin and Carroll could be among the leading candidates after that.

5. The Cleveland Browns now have as many starts with Jameis Winston this season as they had with Deshaun Watson. Perhaps ‘none of the above’ is the best answer at QB.

There’s no denying the Cleveland offense has been more productive since Winston replaced Watson in the lineup following Watson’s season-ending injury. But after another turnover-filled game from Winston and the offense in a 21-7 defeat to Kansas City, the Browns have proved they can rank 32nd on offense with either quarterback.

Cleveland was last in EPA per play on offense through Week 7. The Browns have been last in EPA per play on offense from Weeks 8 to 15.

The table below unveils the splits for each quarterback’s starts.

The Browns’ EPA per play with Watson starting (-0.225) ranked 786th out of 798 teams since 2000 over the first seven games of a season, per TruMedia. Their EPA per play with Winston starting (-0.120) ranks 690th out of 798 teams over games 8-14 since 2000.

Watson is reportedly returning next season, but the Browns obviously need other options. Winston could be one of them, but can Cleveland really go through another season in this way? It’s difficult to fathom.

Cleveland owns its own picks in the first four rounds and the sixth round next season. The Browns also own a third from Buffalo via the Amari Cooper trade, a fifth from Detroit and two sixths acquired in other deals. The Browns’ first-rounder would be seventh in the order right now, per Tankathon.

We have entered the “depression” phase of the Jameis Winston market cycle pic.twitter.com/iW76bzw08C

— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) December 15, 2024

6. Two-minute drill: MVP looking like Josh Allen’s to lose

Josh Allen’s chest pass for a touchdown — punctuated by looking away and jogging off, arm raised high, before the ball was caught — was the sort of signature play that can help cement an MVP season. A holding penalty wiped it out, raising a question: Does a jury unhear stricken evidence?

Even without that play, Allen over the past two weeks has 704 yards passing, five touchdown passes, five rushing touchdowns and no turnovers. He’s done it against the Lions and Rams, two teams in the playoff race.

A holding penalty wipes out a Josh Allen chest pass TD 😅 pic.twitter.com/Sz9RXuc4Tw

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 16, 2024

Allen’s production over the last two weeks is about the only way a player could overshadow what Lamar Jackson pulled off in a less-watched game against the New York Giants on Sunday.

Jackson, coming off a bye, finished with at least as many touchdown passes (five) as incomplete passes (four) for the third time this season and the seventh time in his career (including playoffs), tied with Peyton Manning for the most such games (min. 15 pass attempts) in a career. It was his fourth career game with more TD passes than incompletions, tying Manning and Tom Brady for the most ever. Jackson had been tied with Drew Brees for second in both categories.

Jackson’s EPA per pass play (+0.83) was by far the best for any player in Week 15, followed by Baker Mayfield (+0.61), Allen (+0.54) and Jared Goff (+0.45). Jackson has four such games in his career, counting playoffs.

The chart below updates the offensive EPA for the leading MVP candidates. Allen has carved into Jackson’s lead by that measure.

• Eagles 10th straight: The Eagles basically gave their defense the second half off Sunday in what became their 10th consecutive victory following a 2-2 start. They limited Pittsburgh to 5:50 in time of possession on just two second-half drives. This was a low time of possession for an Eagles opponent (and for a Steelers offense) in a second half since at least 2000, per TruMedia. It was the lowest for any team in the second half of any game since 2022.

Philly’s defense, which ranks fourth in EPA per play after ranking 30th last season, should be fresh against Washington in Week 16, in other words. An 11th consecutive victory would match new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s longest streak since entering the NFL in 1986. His 1999 Indianapolis Colts won 11 in a row.

• Big man running: T’Vondre Sweat’s fumble return for the Tennessee Titans, complete with spectacular stiff-arm, immediately takes a prominent place on the list of best returns by huge defenders. The 366-pound defensive tackle recorded the longest fumble return since at least 2000 by a defensive player listed at 350 pounds or heavier, per TruMedia.

RUMBLIN’ BUMBLIN’ STUMBLIN’ #ProBowlVote + @TvondreSweat

📺: Watch #CINvsTEN on @NFLonFOX stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/42T3r6gaud

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 15, 2024

Former Detroit Lions defensive tackle Shaun Rogers had a 66-yard pick six off Denver’s Patrick Ramsey in 2007. Rogers also had a 21-yard fumble return for a touchdown against New Orleans in 2005, impressive for the way he carried defenders across the goal line.

Other fumble returns by defensive linemen in the 350-and-up club, including Albert Haynesworth and Terrance Knighton, were more conventional.

Of course, listed weights aren’t always accurate. Longtime nose tackle Keith “Tractor” Traylor, listed at 337 pounds but perhaps a sandwich or three above that at times, had two interception returns of 60-plus yards, one for a touchdown with the Broncos in 1998 and this memorable 67-yard return in the Bears’ 2001 season finale, which Dick Enberg and Dan Dierdorf described perfectly.

• Ravens on fourth down: Baltimore seemed to go out of character when taking a delay penalty to set up a punt instead of going for it on fourth-and-1 from the Giants’ 49-yard line in the first quarter. This was indeed a first for Baltimore in the Lamar Jackson era.

The team had gone for it four times in four chances when facing fourth-and-1 from midfield to the opponent’s 45-yard line with Jackson, converting every time (including when Jackson gained 14 yards on a run against Houston in the playoffs last season).

Baltimore did take a delay penalty on fourth-and-1 from the Dallas 44 in Week 3.

• Rodgers’ rebound: The New York Jets beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 32-25 with Aaron Rodgers leading two touchdown drives in the final 4:19. It’s been a tough season for Rodgers and the Jets, but the last seven games were better than the first seven, at least on offense.

(Photo of Dan Campbell: Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)