Let’s start this report card piece with a series of “ifs.”
If Winnipeg Jets scout Tavis MacMillan hadn’t traveled 1,000 miles to watch Connor Hellebuyck play …
If Hellebuyck hadn’t stood on his head that weekend in Texas …
If MacMillan hadn’t had the good sense to scout those games in plain clothes — without the Jets logo — or if Hellebuyck hadn’t been a teenager wired to make obsessive, incremental improvements in his game …
Years later: If Kevin Cheveldayoff had panicked, trading Hellebuyck for dimes on the dollar during a difficult 2023 Jets offseason that saw Pierre-Luc Dubois traded and former captain Blake Wheeler bought out …
Or how about this one: What if Hellebuyck hadn’t loved Winnipeg?
It took many twists, turns, great bounces, hard work and a lifetime of Hellebuyck’s dedication to his craft — plus the work of multiple scouts, executives and teammates — but Hellebuyck remains the Jets franchise goaltender almost 13 years after Winnipeg drafted him. He’s signed four Jets contracts, outdueled multiple competitors and won multiple Vezina Trophies. He could win the Hart Trophy this season — or come close — partly because he doubled down on his own processes after the worst playoff results of his career. What if he hadn’t been so self-assured? (Or courageous enough to bet on himself, if he was not, in fact, sure?)
Perhaps most importantly to his team, Hellebuyck loves Winnipeg. What if he were “just” an elite goaltender who hadn’t loved to fish?
Hellebuyck is not the only reason Winnipeg is a top NHL team. That narrative hasn’t been true since 2020, when he kept the Jets in playoff contention despite one of the most depleted defence corps in memory. He is the team’s top player — again — but not alone in his contributions to the team’s success.
He’s also the third-fastest goaltender in NHL history to win 300 games, the second-fastest goaltender in history to combine 300 wins and 40 shutouts, and the fastest U.S.-born goaltender to win 300 games.
“For the longest time I was just playing,” Hellebuyck said after achieving his latest milestone. “Taking it day-by-day, having fun, working hard and trying to get better. As you get a little older in this league and things start to happen and you start to achieve some things, that kind of sets in and you start to realize that you’re doing some great things.”
Hellebuyck has accomplished his personal milestone list — 500 games played, 300 wins, 40 shutouts — with the same team, in the same city, in front of the same fan base, and the beauty of that is not lost on him. He was seen grabbing at the Jets crest on his jersey after Tuesday’s win, gesturing at the fans still celebrating, showing his appreciation.
“They’ve been with us through the start of this,” he said. “I was trying to give them a piece of that emotion that I was feeling. … Going through what this city has gone through over the last couple of years, and going through it with them, seeing how big we are in the community and how much people care about us, it’s hard not to start to feel connected. And as time goes, you just grow stronger and closer.”
You will not be surprised when you see his midseason grade.
Goaltenders
Connor Hellebuyck: A+
Hellebuyck is the best player on the Jets, the presumed starter on a stacked U.S. 4 Nations Face-Off team, and the reigning Vezina and William Jennings Trophy winner. He is the front-runner to win the 2025 Vezina Trophy; if he does, he’ll become the first back-to-back winner since Martin Brodeur in 2007 and 2008. He would also become the NHL’s only active three-time winner of the award, tying all-time greats like Patrick Roy. (Only 12 goaltenders have won three or more Vezina Trophies.)
Is he the best goaltender in the world right now? Well, he does lead all starters in wins, save percentage and goals saved above expected — leading the latter two stats for the second consecutive season. He has the best case among goaltenders to win this season’s Hart Trophy, according to common sense (and to Dom Luszczyszyn in our most recent NHL Awards Watch).
What more can be said?
Standing ovation for the Winnipeg Jets after that massive penalty kill. Well deserved. #NHLJets pic.twitter.com/b5hgqaITJN
— Connor Hrabchak (@ConnorHrabchak1) January 8, 2025
Eric Comrie: B
Eric Comrie’s three wins and six losses in nine games stand out in contrast to Hellebuyck’s 25-6-2 record. I think that undersells Comrie’s work: His .904 save percentage is 24th among the 64 goalies who have played at least nine games. The Jets haven’t given Comrie much run support in his six losses, averaging two goals per game despite averaging 3.6 goals per game overall.
Four of Comrie’s six losses have come in the second half of back-to-backs. For context, Hellebuyck’s record in that situation is 0-0-0 — Winnipeg has played its starter on the first night of each back-to-back. Call it a perk of being the best in the world.
The eye test is mostly kind. Rewind to New Year’s Eve and Colorado beats Comrie with two deflections and on one rebound that followed a seam pass with a lot of puck movement. Comrie’s start before that was a 3-2 loss to the Ducks in Anaheim; the first two goals he gave up were deflections during dominant Ducks shifts and the third was Troy Terry’s last-minute game-winner on a horrible giveaway.
All of this backstory is my way of saying Comrie’s grade was lower until I dug in; I think he’s been put in tough spots and has fought hard to keep Winnipeg in games.
Defencemen
Josh Morrissey: A+
Josh Morrissey stunned the hockey world with a 76-point season three years ago, tying Quinn Hughes for second in points by a defenceman. He followed it up with a 69-point performance (eighth among NHL defencemen) and has scored 38 more points in 42 games for Winnipeg this year. This puts Morrissey back on track for a 70-plus point season, makes him the fourth-highest scoring defenceman in the last three years, and completely overshadows the defensive improvements Morrissey has made from his first points explosion to now.
I don’t see Morrissey’s route to a Norris Trophy — this is the era of Cale Makar and Hughes, Adam Fox and Victor Hedman are also elite — but he’s improved his all-around game each season and deserves to be thought of in elite company.
Analytics aren’t everything but look at the drama in Morrissey’s career arc via HockeyViz. (sG refers to “synthetic goals,” which are Micah McCurdy’s version of an all-in-one stat. His definition is here.)
Dylan Samberg: A
Dylan Samberg’s successful step into Winnipeg’s top four was one of the Jets’ best storylines before his injury.
He’s one of the few Jets defencemen who excels on the penalty kill, making his reads quickly enough and stepping into lanes effectively enough to limit scoring chances: Opposing power plays take a ton of shot attempts with Samberg on the ice, but fewer of those shots make it to the net with Samberg on than any other Jets defenceman. Better still, fewer of those shots turn into goals.
Put another way? Samberg blocks the shots he’s supposed to block and wins the net-front battles he’s supposed to win. He reads plays like a top-four defenceman and wins battles like one, helping Neal Pionk to his best five-on-five results of the year, too. Samberg’s next step will be eliminating some of the puckhandling foibles that occasionally hamper his breakouts. They’re few and far between, but not completely gone from his game.
As we wrote earlier this week, his impending return — Friday, most likely — gives Winnipeg stability at his position this season and well into the future.
Neal Pionk: B+
Pionk played a massive role alongside Dylan DeMelo during Winnipeg’s 5-on-3 kill against Nashville that earned the standing ovation you saw linked above. Pionk and Samberg are Winnipeg’s best second pair, although it seems as though Pionk might need Samberg at least as much as the other way around. His numbers have dropped with a rotating cast of partners from Haydn Fleury, Logan Stanley and a couple of lesser-used, righty-righty pairs with Colin Miller and Dylan Coghlan. Given Samberg played almost all of his minutes with Pionk and Pionk has now played many minutes with more chaotic partners, most models credit Samberg for the pair’s defensive excellence.
If that section dragged like a poorly constructed algebra lesson, it might make sense to focus on Pionk’s on-ice strengths and weaknesses. He’s great at getting shots through from the point; beating the first layer of blocks so teammates can battle for a deflection is an underrated skill that’s contributed to several of Pionk’s 23 assists.
Colin Miller: B
There are games in which Miller is more effective than either of DeMelo or Pionk and I don’t think that would have been reasonable to predict when the season began. I’m not sure if this automatically means he’d be ready to contribute in the top four — I’ve noticed a few blind passes in the D-zone that have led to trouble against top competition — but it does mean Miller is having a solid overall season despite a revolving door of partners. He’s only taken six minor penalties, making him one of the more disciplined Jets defencemen, and his veteran savvy has helped him take on bottom-six competition from the third pair and beat it. He’s an ideal third-pairing RHD in a lot of ways and was a good pickup by the Jets last season.
Dylan DeMelo: C+
We’ve harped at it at length — DeMelo hasn’t provided the “coach’s porn” of previous seasons. He’s not keeping a perfectly clean defensive zone or making instant outlet passes with the same frequency as years past, and he’s gotten beaten in transition in a couple of memorable ways. Last year’s 32-point outburst could go down as a career high for him. He’s on pace for fewer than 20 points this year; most of the drop-off comes from secondary assists; some of that is natural variance and some of it is likely to do with a drop-off in the crispness of his exit passing. I’ve detailed how DeMelo’s game was underrated in the past. I’m not seeing as much of it so far this season.
Dylan Coghlan: N/A
Coghlan has only played in four games, most recently earning praise from Scott Arniel for the way he and Ville Heinola handled heavy minutes when Morrissey left Tuesday’s game. It’s a tiny sample size so we won’t get carried away, but Coghlan has made a big impact with limited minutes. He’s been smart in his own end, made good plays in transition and spent most of his time in the offensive zone.
Ville Heinola: C
Heinola’s best games put him well clear of the competition for Winnipeg’s third-pairing job at left defence. His worst moments make it clear he’s a work in progress. He’s inching closer to the point at which his offensive instincts help him contribute to real offence, sometimes — but not always — picking ideal times to jump into the play. It’s clear that strength is a challenge for him in his own zone; few defencemen box out earlier or with more vigour than Heinola does (and I think his small stature helps him get away with a few extra cross-checks) but there are times when his man still fends him off for a chance. Alex DeBrincat’s game-winning goal for Detroit on Jan. 4 was a case of Heinola letting his man get inside position without being strong enough to take DeBrincat’s stick away.
The good news? Heinola is learning. When Nashville picked out Jonathan Marchessault for a third-period stretch pass on Tuesday, Heinola tracked Marchessault down, got body position on him and shut down the chance. The Jets are winning his minutes 8-2 at five-on-five, although it’s taken some unsustainable shooting and save percentages to achieve that. Whether it happens this season or next, the Jets would benefit from getting a bunch of games in a row from Heinola, ideally with a consistent partner. That hasn’t happened yet.
Haydn Fleury: C
Fleury is a great case study of the difference in difficulty between third-pair and second-pair minutes. Fleury prospered early in the season when Winnipeg’s coaching staff kept him far away from elite offensive players. He earned the step up to Pionk’s partnership when Samberg got hurt and struggled with the steady diet of top six forwards he faced in that role. Winnipeg would be best served if one of Heinola or Stanley claimed the third-pairing left-defence job outright and ran with it (or if a trade acquisition bumped every player one step down the depth chart). In the meantime, he’s a good story and a useful pickup if limited to third pair and press box duties.
Logan Stanley: D
Stanley has put the Jets short-handed 11 times this season, tying Morrissey for the team lead. He has played less than half the minutes Morrissey has, making his penalty-taking rate far more striking; Stanley has taken the fifth-most minor penalties per minute of ice time in the NHL.
Stanley plays a regular role on the Jets penalty kill, averaging 1:44 per game. Winnipeg gives up more goals against per minute of his PK time than any other Jets defenceman. Some of this is because of Stanley’s slow first step, making it hard for him to get into lanes. Some of it is also because his size provides a screen for Hellebuyck. On Tuesday, a puck was cleared too softly to the point in the buildup to Filip Forsberg’s goal.
At five-on-five, Winnipeg has a worse percentage of shot attempts and shots on goal with Stanley on the ice than any other Jets defenceman. He improves to sixth of nine in expected goals and fourth in Winnipeg’s share of real goals, but those are alarming process stats for a defenceman who had been kept away from top competition before Fleury’s recent injury. He and Miller have outscored opponents 7-1 in almost 200 minutes together, which offers signs of hope in a purely sheltered, third-pairing role at five-on-five. Some of that score comes from an unsustainable .989 save percentage behind them in those minutes; the duo has enjoyed 45 percent of shots and 52 percent of expected goals during those minutes.
Stanley has been at his best in the offensive zone, showing more confidence jumping into plays and picking up three of his six assists in consecutive games to end December. He also plays a physical role that is appreciated by his teammates and is willing to drop the gloves; he may not be the ideal enforcer but he’s earned respect by being game.
(Photo of Connor Hellebuyck: James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)
