After Luka Dončić trade, Lakers should be thinking about summer 2026

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The Los Angeles Lakers’ acquisition of Luka Dončić is a look toward the future of the organization even more than it is a move based on the present.

Yes, Dončić is one of the best NBA playoff performers of all time. And yes, Dončić has made first-team All-NBA in each of the last five seasons. But the acquisition isn’t the cleanest on-court fit for the team’s 2025 playoff hopes. It required the Lakers to part with Anthony Davis, the team’s lone effective center. They already went into February needing to find a terrific perimeter defender. Plus, they had to give up one of the two future first-round picks they had available to trade to acquire Dončić.

And yet, this is a deal Los Angeles has to make 100 times out of 100. Acquiring Dončić is an unequivocal no-brainer that general manager Rob Pelinka flabbergastingly negotiated into being more advantageous than expected, as the team did not have to give up its 2031 first-rounder or young players Austin Reaves and Dalton Knecht. With those factors at play, the Lakers are unsurprisingly, per sources around the league, focused over the next 24 hours on building for the future even more so than they are for the present. The Lakers aren’t done trying to make trades for this season, but everything they do will have an eye on not limiting themselves into the future.

In that vein, the Dončić trade should be considered the opening salvo in the Cap Space Olympics for the summer of 2026.

A Dončić trade starting that race is unexpected. In trade talks with teams regarding Jimmy Butler, league sources believe the Miami Heat are targeting clearing their books around All-Stars Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo by that summer to retool around their core. The summer of 2026 is widely seen around the league as being the next free-agency class to have real star power — and thus the potential to shake up the NBA.

As of right now, the list of players who could hit free agency following the 2025-26 season is massive. The potential class includes Kevin Durant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Trae Young, Damian Lillard, De’Aaron Fox, Butler and Kyrie Irving. Dončić and LeBron James — if James chooses to play past that point — are also eligible to be unrestricted free agents.

Undeniably, all of these players won’t hit free agency. Jackson is on the precipice of being eligible as a likely All-NBA selection if the season ended today. Fox is seen league-wide as a likely extension candidate in San Antonio this summer following his trade there from the Sacramento Kings. Irving’s status is also interesting given that the Mavericks just made a significant deal seemingly without consulting him. He has a player option this offseason. But if even a fraction of these players decides to hit the open market, there is real star power out there. The class has potential to be deep beyond even that group, with CJ McCollum, Kristaps Porziņģis, Draymond Green, Mikal Bridges and several other terrific starter-quality players out there.

Looking at the potential trade market if teams decide to get out ahead of big decisions — like Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison referenced during his news conference as a reason for doing the Dončić deal itself — even more players could be available. Another set of All-NBA players in Nikola Jokić, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell and Davis could all be entering the final years of their contracts in 2026-27.

This trade has positioned the Lakers to be in the prime position should any star player shake loose from their incumbent team. Dončić playing in Los Angeles is just about guaranteed to be the best combination of superstar player and glamour market for another star to join forces with.

The summer of 2026 is key because the Lakers already have the cap-sheet flexibility for that summer that few teams do. Assuming that next season is James’ last — he has a player option for 2025-26 — Los Angeles will only have five players on its books. Let’s start with Dončić’s situation, because it’s now a bit complicated with him no longer being eligible for a supermax extension by being traded. Dončić would have been eligible for a contract starting with a salary worth 35 percent of the salary cap, a deal estimated at five years, $345 million if the Mavericks had kept him. However, the number of a full five-year extension for Dončić to sign with the Lakers is now a paltry $229 million.

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The best way for Dončić to maximize his financial situation over the next decade would be to decline his $48.9 million player option for 2026-27 this offseason and sign a shorter-term, three-year extension with a player option in 2028-29. Such a deal would actually get Dončić close to his supermax number over the next six years. Because Dončić missed out on being eligible to sign a supermax, he will need to wait until he has played 10 seasons in the NBA to be eligible to make 35 percent of the cap. Signing a two-plus-one extension with a full value of $165 million this summer would put him on track to be eligible to make 35 percent of the salary cap starting in 2028-29 after he’s played 10 years able to opt out of that player option in 2028-29 and sign a massive deal.

With this structure, Dončić will lose out on about $18 million in 2025-26 and 2026-27. However, by signing his 35 percent max following multiple expected salary-cap spikes of 10 percent thanks to the new media-rights deals, Dončić would only lose about $5 million over the next six years of his career. Below, I’ve mapped out Dončić’s three pathways for you to see in detail, with the first one being his projected supermax numbers in Dallas, the second one being if he took a short-term deal in Los Angeles followed by signing a longer-term deal and the final one being if Dončić just decided to sign long-term with the Lakers this summer.

Dončić extension options (numbers in millions)

The key number here is that the Lakers should expect Dončić to count for about $51 million against the 2026-27 salary cap.

The Lakers have very few players under contract around him following next season. Reaves has a player option that he will assuredly decline to hit free agency. That places a $21 million cap hold on the Lakers’ books if they wish to utilize his Bird rights to retain him. The team should absolutely try to retain Reaves as it looks like he’ll be worth a contract exceeding that cap hold, allowing the team to sign him last and go over the salary cap to keep him. The team also has a $4.2 million cap hit for Knecht, a $12.4 million cap hit for Jarred Vanderbilt and a $2.3 million cap hit for Bronny James.

Those are the team’s only other guaranteed salaries. That means L.A. only has about $91 million on the books when the salary cap is projected to be at $170 million. There are also seven roster charges at the league minimum of $1.4 million that go along with this. Additionally, the team currently owns its 2026 first-round pick. Still, the Lakers should reasonably have $65 million to $70 million in cap space entering the 2026 offseason. The projected salary of a max player with at least 10 years of experience is about $59.5 million, so they have some wiggle room.

If the Lakers maintain that space leading into the summer of 2026, they’re well-positioned to attack the market. And as we’ve seen with several situations over the last few years, the Lakers and agents of superstar players should be able to weaponize this threat of space over the next 18 months to try and pry a star player free. It might not be pretty, but it is the reality of what destination teams can do. And now with Dončić in tow, the Lakers aren’t just selling the idea of Laker Exceptionalism. They’re selling a future Hall of Famer entering his prime.

What does all of that mean for the Lakers and their machinations at this trade deadline?

It means the Lakers shouldn’t take on any salaries that expire after 2026. Someone like Cam Johnson is arguably the best player whom the Lakers could reasonably try to acquire, but he has a contract with a $22.5 million cap hit in 2026-27. He should be excised from the conversation immediately if only because the Lakers can’t take the risk of being held with the bag in 2026-27 if he gets hurt.

Rather, the team should be looking at low-cost options or players with contracts that end no later than the 2025-26 season. Making deals for big contracts will be tough as it is. The Lakers are over the first apron and only $1.6 million away from the second apron, plus possess only one second-round pick unless they decide to split their 2031 first-rounder or Knecht into a few selections like the Phoenix Suns did earlier in January to try to open up flexibility. That’s not a strategy I’d employ here, given that the pick will be less valuable to other teams due to Dončić’s presence and could be valuable in future star trades.

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A few lower-cost names worth considering:

• Brooklyn Nets center Day’Ron Sharpe is an obvious fit. The Lakers desperately need a center option, and he’s been extremely productive in a backup role for the Nets. Averaging eight points and six rebounds in just 17 minutes per night, Sharpe might be the kind of player who steps into a bigger role and thrives as an upside swing at just 23 years old. He will be a restricted free agent this year after being a first-round pick back in 2021. Wizards center Jonas Valančiūnas has been connected with the Lakers throughout the year, and he could be an interesting fallback option if nothing else comes together. He’s an enormous body who is a killer screener and extremely durable. However, he’s a liability in space defensively, and the Lakers would need to find an additional counter to him. He is in the first year of a three-year, $30 million deal that is non-guaranteed in 2026-27, so he fits the timeline. Raptors center Chris Boucher is a third realistic option, and he’s been pretty solid for the Raptors. As the team’s backup center, he’s averaging 10.5 points and 4.3 rebounds in 17 minutes per night while shooting 37.5 percent from 3 on four attempts per game. The 32-year-old has an expiring deal for $10.8 million.

• Three other potential backup options? New York Knicks center Jericho Sims fits the typical rim-runner role that Dončić likes. He’s very limited on offense outside of that but is pretty solid as a rim protector. He’s a free agent this offseason as well. Portland Trail Blazers center Duop Reath had a solid rookie season last year but has been buried behind Donovan Clingan, Robert Williams III and Deandre Ayton this season. Houston Rockets third-string big man Jock Landale had some success with the Suns in the playoffs back in 2023 and has a contract for $8 million that is non-guaranteed for each of the next two seasons. The price tag here is a bit large for what he brings to the table, though.

• If the Lakers go searching in the backcourt for a perimeter defender to help supplement Dončić and Reaves, a few names make sense. Marcus Smart is a former NBA Defensive Player of the Year who has had a horror run of injuries since being acquired by Memphis. The Lakers would likely need to find a third team to take Rui Hachimura’s contract to get something like this done. Another player in this vein would be Lonzo Ball, the Los Angeles native who has been effective for the Chicago Bulls in limited time this year. His basketball IQ would blend splendidly with Dončić, Reaves and James, and he’s a tough defender. He is on an expiring deal with the Bulls for about $21.4 million. Finally, the Lakers tried to sign Bruce Brown using their midlevel exception two years ago after his terrific play with the Denver Nuggets in their NBA title run, but Brown instead opted for a big payday in Indiana before being dealt in the Pascal Siakam trade to Toronto. He makes $23 million, so salary matching his deal is difficult but possible.

There are certainly others on the market who could make sense. However, maintaining their assets and their flexibility will be tricky at the deadline, and my bet is the Lakers end up taking informed bets on imperfect players as opposed to making a big swing.

After all, the summer of 2026 beckons, and the leverage the Lakers should be able to apply to the rest of the league’s stars should allow them to find other opportunities in the coming 18 months.

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(Top photo of Lakers GM Rob Pelinka and Luka Dončić: Harry How / Getty Images)